Weather thread 2011

[Lentus]

Ok, if metcheck is as good as everyone is saying then we're laughing, not loudly, but we are laughing

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=

[TimmyP's Mobile Disco]

I'm feeling somewhat positive. I can cope with predictions that say it's going to be a dry weekend.

However I am still taking the wellies - if only not to anger the rain gods by not going prepared

[Buzlightyear]

Are you on glue?

[Cooter]

Are you on glue?

[jezzer]

Latest GFS is out. LINKY

Not the greatest run but the ECM's latest looks good, shallow High pressure edged into the south over the weekend

[William of Walworth]

As you know though jezzer, current output from run to run is literally all over the shop on various models.

So much so that this thread has grown over twenty bloody pages since earlier today and I can't keep up!

No time at all to 'catch up'

Right now I'm back in deeply low pressure centred pessimism mode I fear, at least until the great deity that is JACK is able to resolve the synoptics in a direction less suggestive of this ....

..... which I now doubt that he'll be able to ....

And Friday, ie now, will be my last day with any access to here too. We're off out into the wind and rain on Saturday -- at least as far as Glastonbury (Town).

On site by Sunday afternoon.

Crew start early ......

[William of Walworth]

Latest summary from Gibby on the Model Output Discussion threads on the Netweather forums.

Make of it what you will, but thankfully he writes very understandably for the benefit of amateurs!

Good evening model watchers. Here's a quick rundown of the chronological events of the 12z output of the big three tonight.

GFS shows tomorrow as a wet day as a marked disturbance runs NE over Western Britain. Rain in the SW in the morning will move steadily northeast across all areas. The rain will be heavy on the high ground especially and driven on by a fresh to strong breeze especially as the rain clears later in the SW. By Saturday the Low pressure will have moved out into the North sea with a broad trough west through Northern Britain. So a showery day for Saturday with a brisk west wind in the south so consequently feeling cool. Scotland will see slower moving downpours after rain clears the east first thing. Sunday sees the weakest of ridges cross the UK damping down the showers before renewed low pressure trundles in off the Atlantic over the first days of next week bringing further rain and heavy showers to most if not all areas before moving slowly away NE by Thursday though still with a trough southwestwards from it over the UK still promoting a showery theme.

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn1441.png

Towards the end of next week the weather remains very showery as GFs refuses to loosen the grip of the cool showery NW flow. Its not until Saturday when a ridge probably gives most areas a dry if rather cool day before it's back to square one with renewed low pressure moving in off the Atlantic bringing rain followed by showers before the end of Sunday 26th.

http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn2401.png

In FI tonight GFS continues the basically unsettled theme with subtle differences with time. The cool and showery weather of the first few days of FI is replaced at the latter end of the run by a run of brisk and moist westerly winds with drizzle and mist commonplace over hills and coasts in the west while the east would see a few pleasantly warm bright intervals in the lee of high ground to the west.

UKMO tonight also shows the marked low pressure trough moving NE over the UK tomorrow with rain for all. With low pressure covering the North on Saturday there would be some heavy and slow moving showers there while in the south a brisk west wind will whisk showers through quickly west to east through the day. On Sunday the south and west would see less showers as a weak ridge is shown to move in from the SW. By Monday though a new low pressure moves in towards Ireland with a spell of rain followed by yet another return to sunshine and heavy showers for the rest of the runon Wednesday 22nd.

http://www.wzkarten3...ics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Rukm1441.gif

ECM's 12z shows little difference to UKMO for tomorrow and Saturday so rain then showers for the next 48hrs. On Sunday the weakest of ridges crosses the country damping down the showers somewhat but th north and east would still see quite a few.

By Monday as with UKMO and GFS new low pressure moves slowly in off the Atlantic with the very unsettled weather continuing up until midweek.

http://www.wzkarten3...ics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Recm1441.gif

Towards the end of the week and over the Glastonbury weekend ECM brings at least a temporary drying up process as a ridge of high pressure creeps in over the UK to form a centre just south of Britain by Saturday and just to the east by Sunday. so after a few more showers in rather cool weather on Thursday brighter warmer conditions move in from the west in time for the weekend.

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Recm2401.gif

As the models struggle to handle the evolution of the weather from the middle of next week I feel it all depends on how the Low pressure early next week behaves in the way and when it exits the UK. GFS has backtracked from this morning's high pressure FI while ECM has gradually brought High Pressure into the equation in recent runs. Expect more twists and turns in the coming days as the events of the next few days unfold. One thing is for certain if we're to have a change in weather type in a week or so's time you can rest assured the period towards it is going to be far from straightforward synoptically.

Edited June 17, 2011 by William of Walworth

[caldo120]

"He had observed DETERMINISTIC CHAOS (high sensitivity to initial conditions).

This is an entirely new phenomenon that limits the precision and time duration of our

predictions on the future evolution of a chaotic system (also known as the butterfly

effect)."

Good ole Lorenz. Three equations to to predict the weather and in the darkness bind them... well, for a few days anyway.

[MEGABOWL]

Are you on glue?

[dancingdaisy09]

The charts are not correct because of the storm cells we are going to get over the weekend, once the storm clears then we will get correct charts and should be able to *accurately* forecast next week's weather.

No run that comes out this weekend is going to be correct, weather ( ) it says wall to wall sunshine or wet stuff.

Stop stressing people! It's a bit like playing Deal or no deal at the moment, none of us know what is in the box and we won't until the end of the game.

[Guest blackcockerel]

But without that dick Noel Edmonds and all that weird culty behaviour. Well, alright, we do have weird culty behaviour actually

[steviewevie]

Morning all this doesn't look too bad...

[boop2010]

Don't wanna bang on about being a veteran and all that. But, I'm sure there are many on here who remember 97, 98? Was grim wasn't it?

I remember stages sinking, shit lorries blowing instead of sucking, trenchfoot, the man on the radio on route to the site saying "its been raining solid for 48 hours!" At night it was like Mad Max, ambulances everywhere, sirens blaring, people falling, raving, tripping everywhere, horizontal sheet rain, a real possibility of the whole gig being cancelled!

But I also remember Radiohead in 97, Dylan in 98 when the sun shone for the first time. Oh and for some reason I remember being in a clothes stall, knee deep in water watching Beckham score a free kick against Columbia! Good times, happy times! People, next week will be a wonderful festival, the weather will happen, we'll get wrecked, we'll trip, fall, get lost, we'll bimble! Doesn't get any better than that.

[steviewevie]

I remember '97, i was 14, and got stuck in mud in the dark and someone had to give me a firemans lift out the mud and i lost my trainers and had to go around bare footed, i also remember dehydrating watching The Seahorses and no one gave me any water and i fainted.... people were throwing mud balls at a band and they walked off, Reef and Radiohead were amazing, so i have far more good memories than bad and i was covered in mud and probably poo for 5 days - who cares amazing experience xx

[daggermouth]

My friends boyfriend was down on site yesterday setting up marquees for Greenpeace and i asked about conditions on site and got the short message back of "It's a bog already" only passing on what ive been told. But i assume isolated areas with heavy footload while setting up will get like that.

[Lentus]

Do you want to explain what's so bad about that weather forecast?

[eFestivals]

Last time I looked I live in that world and I don't agree. What makes all this much MUCH worse is when women prefer to cower behind a chest-beating bloke trying to "defend" them rather than take the battle on themselves. While those pictures were being posted I don't remember ONE woman complaining on the thread. No-one. It appears that they all preferred to go moaning to the man in charge. That's not feminism. That's being a cliche.

given the abuse that's come my way about this, what sort of abuse do you think would have come those women's way if they'd dared to express their views to the mysoginists and worse who have an over-blown sense of their own righteousness?

Just as the abuse that's come at me has been unjustifed - because, I repeat, no one has been able to justify the pictures being posted here that kicked this off - they'd have also got that unjustified abuse. If you think that everyone wants to willing subject themselves to that from some overly-small minds then you're more than just daft.

I agree it went too far but the consequent furore and reaction from Neil has been a disgrace. I was going to stick it out until Tuesday but I think I'll leave this forum (and website) for good now. Not because of half-naked ladies, they don't bother me. But because Neil has shown himself up for what he really is - a power-hungry bully who has absolutely zero respect for his customers (which ultimately we all are).

I have no respect for some of the views expressed here. Not all views are worthy of respect.

As I've said, I'd rather this site was populated by fewer but right-minded people than a greater number of people who are unable to recognise the effect of their posting behaviour.

I made requests over two days that were ignored. It became clear that a tougher stance was necessary to get the message across.

If you don't wish to use these forums in a respectful-to-others manner and recognise that respectful conduct is expected of those who do use these forums and sometimes needs to be enforced, then you are no loss to these forums. Bye.

[steviewevie]

My friends boyfriend was down on site yesterday setting up marquees for Greenpeace and i asked about conditions on site and got the short message back of "It's a bog already" only passing on what ive been told. But i assume isolated areas with heavy footload while setting up will get like that.

[eFestivals]

Because it's still now getting thru to some, I'm re=posting this in the hope it hammers home with some of those a bit slow in taking it in....

I know everyone's sick of reading the politics in this thread (myself included) but I just want to thank eFestivals for taking a stand on the page 3 girls. For a long time I've been uncomfortable about the casual misogyny on this forum -- and not only in this thread.

A worrying number of people here don't seem to have a clue about what objectification is and why it might be offensive. I suggest you take five measly minutes to educate yourselves -- although I know you won't.

Those saying it's 'only done in a spirit of fun' and 'it's okay because women choose to wear short skirts and dance provocatively', I invite you to consider for a moment what it's like to be a woman and live in a world where you can't go ten bloody minutes without seeing a mostly-naked woman on a magazine shelf, on a poster, on TV, online, in music videos, in adverts. Women are objectified all the effing time and it quietly erodes away again and again at gender equality. And, by the way, gender inequality harms men too. Nobody wins.

Raunch culture and objectification are things that you can actively choose not to contribute to. When you post softcore porn on this forum, you don't do it in a cultural vacuum. And that is why people are so angry about it.

Thank you eFestivals.

[MyTwistedWords]

damnit! i just came in to find out about the latest weather predictions and still this continues!! :angry:

i think from what i've read and researched that it will be muddy when we get there and should essentially be bright and dry up above and a smidge moist and muddy underfoot... is this where we're at right now???

[amfy]

It'll be Ok! IOW was a bit of a mudbath so remember the old saying....

"Isle of Wight shite, Glastonbury bright!

Isle of wight sunny, Glastonbury....errrrm...runny."

.......or something.

Although actually I think IOW was a bit mixed this year so I'm not sure where that leaves us!

[planetcat]

I know everyone's sick of reading the politics in this thread (myself included) but I just want to thank eFestivals for taking a stand on the page 3 girls. For a long time I've been uncomfortable about the casual misogyny on this forum -- and not only in this thread.

A worrying number of people here don't seem to have a clue about what objectification is and why it might be offensive. I suggest you take five measly minutes to educate yourselves -- although I know you won't.

Those saying it's 'only done in a spirit of fun' and 'it's okay because women choose to wear short skirts and dance provocatively', I invite you to consider for a moment what it's like to be a woman and live in a world where you can't go ten bloody minutes without seeing a mostly-naked woman on a magazine shelf, on a poster, on TV, online, in music videos, in adverts. Women are objectified all the effing time and it quietly erodes away again and again at gender equality. And, by the way, gender inequality harms men too. Nobody wins.

Raunch culture and objectification are things that you can actively choose not to contribute to. When you post softcore porn on this forum, you don't do it in a cultural vacuum. And that is why people are so angry about it.

Thank you eFestivals.

[beltin]

damnit! i just came in to find out about the latest weather predictions and still this continues!! :angry:

i think from what i've read and researched that it will be muddy when we get there and should essentially be bright and dry up above and a smidge moist and muddy underfoot... is this where we're at right now???

[Titters]

My friends boyfriend was down on site yesterday setting up marquees for Greenpeace and i asked about conditions on site and got the short message back of "It's a bog already" only passing on what ive been told. But i assume isolated areas with heavy footload while setting up will get like that.

[SharpCircle]

What's with all the page 3 talk? surely this is a weather thread?