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Weather thread 2011


Guest Paul ™

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I would definitely take that Ensemble right now.

Most of it seems to be very scattered showers, which could easily just now show up and give us the completely dry festival that it's going to be. If you go by the mean (red) then it's VERY positive.

NFR, NFC.

Edited by Porcelina
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supposed to br biblical storms all day here in Manchester and haven't had a drop - just goes to show they all have absolutely no idea.

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seriously, you don't want to be looking at forecasts for 'Glastonbury', you want to be looking at forecasts for 'Shepton Mallet' instead.

Not only is it nearer to Worthy Farm, but in my experience the short-range forecasts for Shepton definitely better-match the actual weather that the festival gets than the Glastonbury forecasts do.

I'm presuming that the computer forecasting models are so detailed that they're able to produce a unique and often different forecast for just about any location, and that's the reason why the Shepton forecasts are more accurate.

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I remember 85! mud everywhere, cars being towed out, Fire engines stuck, me 7 months pregnant wearing fertilizer sack with arm holes cut in it! determined to have a good time, still going at 45, with all kids in tow, weather makes no difference to me, just a diferent feel, in the rain, people become more friendly and helpful to each other, sun makes everyone happy, just all part of the Glastonbury spirit...its these weather predictions that are addictive and causing me stress!!

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OK cool. What about Pilton though? Not listed everywhere I know but thats the most accurate surely?

I guess the Worthy Farm postcode would be best where that website allows a postcode search, but I've not actually tried it. I know that Metcheck doesn't recognise 'Pilton', which is how come I've used Shepton.

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Stair rods in north Cornwall right now. Absolutely tipping down. Which I regard as a good thing, almost a public service if you like, because it means the clouds will have emptied by the time they get to Somerset.

Does that make any sense, meteorlogically?

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Here is an animation I made for the r**n from today's GFS 12Z run, not too bad towards the festival weekend but there is a lot of water around in the mean time, better than the other way around at least B)

Colours represent rain in mm for the 3 hours of each time step as shown on the scale at the bottom :)

gf_prec.gif

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