The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

I asked first: show me a fast treaty change to make Avery's view hold up in any reality?

I can't but then I have never read an EU treaty- I am assuming mr Avery has ... Oh let me see he's probably had a hand in writing a few so if he thinks it is possible for iScotland to join the EU on day 1 - I will relay on his opinion before yours if that's ok with you.

At the risk of repeating myself, all I am arguing here is to say that Scotland joining the EU on day 1 is impossible or even highly unlikely is far from a certainty.

So please don't accuse me of saying iScotland can just breeze in - I've never said that.

[LJS]

It might be quoted from the Guardian, but it's also written on the basis that because Barroso's giving an opinion that's close to the enemy's (Cameron's), by default his opinion must be wrong. It's a stupid basis.

And by any "EU qualifications" measurement, the Commission's President out-rank's an only-bureaucrat who is also (in EU terms) long-retired like Avery.

So are you working from that qualifications thing you just asked me about, or are you merely selecting the convenient?

(That's not me supporting Barroso's view btw, it's me using it to demonstrate the selectivity of the view you've gone with. Tho it should be noted he's better placed than anyone to know both the bureaucratic and political feelings, and the private ones and not just any public ones).

---

As far as that Spanish statement goes, it's worth reading what it says and not what it might be imagined to say.

It talks about "a Scottish EU application".

You have to refer to the Lisbon Treaty to find out when it becomes legally possible for "a Scottish EU application" to be made - when it's a sovereign state and not before.

Nothing of that Spanish statement says "we will support a raft of treaty changes to allow iScotland a fast membership path".

There's just about no one who thinks that iScotland would be forever banished to outside the EU, but there's also almost no one saying all the criteria Scotland doesn't meet can be ignored, either. Not even Avery.

Major decisions in the EU are made by member governments not by the European commission

Hence a quote from the Spanish Foreign minister is perhaps of more value than one from Mr Barroso.

I'm not going to address your treaty fixation again - I'm frankly bored with it - until you demonstrate your expertise on the subject.

[eFestivals]

The problem is the bed he was in with Rupert has been pretty busy with UK politicians over the years. When Maggie wasn't in bed with Reagan she was in bed with Murdoch, Pretty sure Tony Blair's stains are on the sheets somewhere.

SoAlec is not whiter than white but that is no reason to vote NO,

well, except 'yes' is saying that voting yes would be getting away from those horrible Westminister traits - like being in bed with Murdoch.

indeed you can make a pretty good argument that Scottish politics has been less tainted by corruption & scandal than UK politics over the past few years

it's probably an argument that stands up, tho probably only because of the limited power the SA wields in comparison to Westminster.

If Alec is so bad why do people vote for him?

a Scottish 'UKIP effect'. Seriously.

The idea has grown in the last 10-ish years that all politicians of the current class of mainstream politicians are tainted (a fair idea to have i'd say, but that's not the point of me saying it).

Within England, the only realistic outlet outside of those three parties is UKIP, which is why it's attracting so many protest voters right now (and fruitcakes, can't mention UKIP without mention of fruitcakes ).

The thing is, that because of UKIP's policies being raving-right, they only attract fruitcakes and idiots or the already raving-right, and that limits their popularity.

Scotland has the SNP. They're far more centre-ground than UKIP, so therefore they can attract a massively greater protest vote (plus the fruitcakes and looneys, they end up everywhere ).

(Note: at the last general election, the Libdems got a lot of those protest votes, which was why their share was so high [tho it won't be again]).

Incidentally in the 2010 Westminster Election the Tories got 16.7% of the vote in Scotland & 1 MP & that is who is governing us.

Democracy?

Firstly: since it's become socially unacceptable to vote tory in scotland (since '87, that is), have all those with tory views in Scotland committed suicide? Or might they still exist and be exerting themselves on Scotland unseen because they don't carry that tag any more? Just a thought.

And yes, democracy.

If you're going to declare independence every time you find your views at odds with the winning side, that's you running away from democracy rather than you being democratic.

And you'll also end up with the sovereign state of your bedroom.

Me, I'm a supporter of unionism in it's biggest sense, that the safety-net for democracy and non-extreme views comes by safety-with numbers - so the bigger the area the better. I'd be quite happy to cede power to a federal Europe.

[LJS]

from the BBC

Claims that an independent Scotland may not be able to join the EU were "unwise and inaccurate", a former senior European official has said.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has said it would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible" for Scotland to join.

Jim Currie, a former European Commission director general, said Scotland had a right to membership.

from the ft

Mr Barroso’s comments are not a definitive judgement on the issue of EU membership, since the union’s response to Scottish independence would be decided by member nations rather than the commission.

The president also did not comment on the legal and political implications of denying EU membership to Scotland, which would be likely to have far-reaching effect on EU citizens studying, working or doing business there.

& Barroso is not new to strange comments

David Cameron has hit back at the president of the European Commission after he said the Tories were increasingly “looking like UKIP”.

In his state of the union address yesterday, Jose Manuel Barroso also predicted that the Conservatives would be defeated by Nigel Farage’s Eurosceptic party in next year’s elections.

[eFestivals]

I'm not going to address your treaty fixation again - I'm frankly bored with it - until you demonstrate your expertise on the subject.

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/index_en.htm

Countries wishing to join need to have:

stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;

FYI: iScotland does not have "stable institutions" until it's new sovereign institutions have been in existence for some time.

Feel free to read some more.

[LJS]

well, except 'yes' is saying that voting yes would be getting away from those horrible Westminister traits - like being in bed with Murdoch.

Sorry Can't find that. please help me.

If you're going to declare independence every time you find your views at odds with the winning side, that's you running away from democracy rather than you being democratic.And you'll also end up with the sovereign state of your bedroom.

Democracy: A system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives:

No one with any sanity defines democracy as being governed by who you individually want. Surveys consistently show that the majority of people consider themselves Scottish first or Solely Scottish. I have been around for a fair wee while so have had the privilege of voting in 8 general elections. only in 3 of these has the result reflected the will of the Scottish electorate (the three labour victories 1997, 2001 & 2005). I would further argue that the Labour party had been changed so much to appease the fears of the voters of Basildon & Hampstead that even these results did not really reflect the Scots' views - I will accept however that we bear some of the blame as, bloody fools that we are, we kept voting for them.

[eFestivals]

from the BBC

from the ft

& Barroso is not new to strange comments

Yep, he's even able to say some anti-Dave stuff ... which brings into question the much-loved Scottish conspiracy theories. Or were the anti-Dave comments to throw iScotland off the scent?

Like it or not, he's about the most politically connected person in Europe - beyond the sitting govts and thru to the major oppositions too. And it's politicians and not bureaucrats that will decide iScotland's EU fate, and their own country's interests can be very differtent to iScotland's.

[LJS]

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/index_en.htm

FYI: iScotland does not have "stable institutions" until it's new sovereign institutions have been in existence for some time.

Feel free to read some more.

again you are assuming that Scotland's application would be treated in the same way as an entirely new applicant like Turkey. there are differing opinions on this.

We are in uncharted territory.

exciting isn't it?

Edited April 2, 2014 by LJS

[kaosmark2]

The warning from the president of the European commission, José Manuel Barroso, that an application by an independent Scotland to join the European Union would be "difficult if not impossible" to negotiate is both politically maladroit and unlikely to improve Barrosso's lamentable record in running the EU's executive for the past 10 years as he now prepares to leave office.

In seeking to frighten Scottish voters with dire predictions that the Spanish government might veto any Scottish EU membership application, he was, of course, merely mimicking identical declarations by David Cameron and the main Scottish unionist leaders. They have all stressed that Madrid would probably block Scotland for fear that otherwise the growing movement for Catalan independence would become irresistible.

But the language being used by the Spanish government does not support these dire predictions. In a recent interview the Spanish foreign minister, José Manuel Garcia-Margallo, stated that a Scottish EU application should be considered in the event of a Yes victory in the referendum. He went on to insist: "If Britain's constitutional order allows – and it seems that it does – Scotland to choose independence, we have nothing to say about this."

More strikingly he went out of his way to distance himself from suggestions that the Scottish and Catalan cases were inseparable for Madrid. "The two issues are 'fundamentally different'," he declared.

quoted from the Guardian.

Also the Spanish like our fish, (sorry barry) although they cook them all wrong - can you believe they do not batter & deep fry them.! Hoots!

Oh I'm not saying the Spanish would REJECT a Scottish application, but they wouldn't allow an easy "you were part of the UK so you can have only their rules apply".

[eFestivals]

Sorry Can't find that. please help me.

seriously, have you not heard all the pro-yes stuff about how they want to throw off the corruption of Westminster?

The sort oif corruption where the new PM takes a visit from Murdoch before even appointing his cabinet?

The sort of corruption that has the FM flying off to New York on a regular basis to get his instructions from Rupert?

Democracy: A system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives:

No one with any sanity defines democracy as being governed by who you individually want. Surveys consistently show that the majority of people consider themselves Scottish first or Solely Scottish. I have been around for a fair wee while so have had the privilege of voting in 8 general elections. only in 3 of these has the result reflected the will of the Scottish electorate (the three labour victories 1997, 2001 & 2005). I would further argue that the Labour party had been changed so much to appease the fears of the voters of Basildon & Hampstead that even these results did not really reflect the Scots' views - I will accept however that we bear some of the blame as, bloody fools that we are, we kept voting for them.

surveys also show the majority don't want independence for Scotland either.

And I'd argue you've got the govt you voted for this time too - a coalition.

Look, I do understand why independence looks appealing, I really do. But it's a con trick by some geezers who want to be big fishes in a small pond rather than small fishes in a big pond. This referendum is about them and not about the people of Scotland, which is why they're happy to lie to achieve their aims at the expensive of people's aspirations and hopes.

Edited April 2, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

again you are assuming that Scotland's application would be treated in the same way as an entirely new applicant like Turkey. there are differing opinions on this.

We are in uncharted territory.

exciting isn't it?

Show me any other method of EU entry.

[eFestivals]

There isn't one.

So if there's to be a new entry procedure, it's got to be made up and agreed by 28 individual sovereign member states.

Now show me where that's ever happened even when there were only 12 states in 18 months.

[Buff124]

seriously, have you not heard all the pro-yes stuff about how they want to throw off the corruption of Westminster?

The sort of corruption where the new PM takes a visit from Murdoch before even appointing his cabinet?

The sort of corruption that has the FM flying off to New York on a regular basis to get his instructions from Rupert?

surveys also show the majority don't want independence for Scotland either.

And I'd argue you've got the govt you voted for this time too - a coalition.

Look, I do understand why independence looks appealing, I really do. But it's a con trick by some geezers who want to be big fishes in a small pond rather than small fishes in a big pond. This referendum is about them and not about the people of Scotland, which is why they're happy to lie to achieve their aims at the expensive of people's aspirations and hopes.

My friend, the above comment contains some real bat shit crazy tinfoil hat stuff. You're leading me to believe that this is purely a wind up.

The pressure of waiting for the Glasto line up can get people that way, I guess....

[eFestivals]

My friend, the above comment contains some real bat shit crazy tinfoil hat stuff. You're leading me to believe that this is purely a wind up.

the only crazy batshit in there is the cpoalition line, meant as a joke.

Dave had Rupert round before he appointed his cabinet. Fact!

Salmond makes regular trips to Murdoch. Fact!

A majority of Scots don't want indy. Fact! (for the moment, at least).

And what the referendum is really about? The yes campaign believes it's shaking off the bad parts of Westminster, but all you'll only do is open the same to more Scots. You only find that one out too late.

[LJS]

And what the referendum is really about? The yes campaign believes it's shaking off the bad parts of Westminster, but all you'll only do is open the same to more Scots. You only find that one out too late.

I would really hope its about more than that. That would be rather sad.

The referendum is about whether we believe Scotland is a Nation. If we are a nation why should we not elect our own government?

plain & simple

&, you know it's not an easy decision. I've spent most of my life against Independence & I've changed my mind (yes it's possible)

It's not black & white

Or blue & white V, red white & blue

Loads of people will make their decision for the wrong reasons (in my opinion)

Just as they do every time there is an election.

But also lots of people ON BOTH SIDES will make their decision after long & hard reflection & consideration.

I just hope enough people care enough to spend some time looking at both sides of the story.

Of course it is really hard to separate the facts from the spin (on both sides) - I think all of us on here have done a great job of demonstrating that.

Is there anyone else sends a football team to the world cup ( showing my age there ) but doesn't have their own government? ( except for Wales & Northern Ireland)

Edited April 2, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

On a side note...I watched most of Farage v. Clegg tonight.

If this is the best UK politics has to offer, I'm off.

[kaosmark2]

On a side note...I watched most of Farage v. Clegg tonight.

If this is the best UK politics has to offer, I'm off.

No, this isn't the best, this is the alternatives to the mainstream options!

Seriously cack.

[LJS]

No, this isn't the best, this is the alternatives to the mainstream options!

Seriously cack.

Farage is dangerous - Why on earth did Dave Cameron & the Milly Band leave it to wee Clegg to sort him out.

Mind you I reckon the better Ukip do in England (we heven't fallen for them in Scotland) the better the Yes campaign will do in Scotland.

[eFestivals]

The referendum is about whether we believe Scotland is a Nation. If we are a nation why should we not elect our own government?

PMSL.

You might like it to be about that, but it's not it's really not.

To quote Bill Clinton: It's the economy, stupid.

Just go and find that BBC poll, where less than 20% of the people of Scotland would vote 'yes' if they were £500 a year worse off, while 40% of people wouldn't vote yes even if they were £500 a year better off (so don't see themselves as that 'nation' under any circumstances).

I just hope enough people care enough to spend some time looking at both sides of the story.

Yep, me too. But when so very many people zoom in on stuff like the mis-quoted EU enthusiasam of Avery that isn't backed up by the facts of the EU, and put all of their faith in one extreme opinion, it's easy to see it's not happening.

But you're right of course. It'll be as big a display of ignorance and self-serving as any other election in any place.

Is there anyone else sends a football team to the world cup ( showing my age there ) but doesn't have their own government? ( except for Wales & Northern Ireland)

the most nutty idea ever spoken for why Scotland is a nation.

That's fuck all to do with Scotland being a nation, and everything to do with the petty regionalism of the country which invented the game. Do keep up.

[eFestivals]

On a side note...I watched most of Farage v. Clegg tonight.

If this is the best UK politics has to offer, I'm off.

But it's not, is it? It's two minor parties trying to pretend to be big boys.

I know another party like that, as it happens. They feel so inferior because they're minor players that they make up lots of bullshit to get people on side that they can't get onside with truth.

[eFestivals]

Farage is dangerous - Why on earth did Dave Cameron & the Milly Band leave it to wee Clegg to sort him out.

Mind you I reckon the better Ukip do in England (we heven't fallen for them in Scotland) the better the Yes campaign will do in Scotland.

Farange is very danger0ous, blaming all the problems of the nation onto "outsiders", and pulling out the most dubious of selective 'evidence' to try and convince people to his cause.

No, you Scots haven't fallen for anything like that, have you? :lol:

[LJS]

As your comments have added nothing new to the debate, I shall simply note that I disagree & get on with my life.

[kaosmark2]

While I agree Neil is just rehashing earlier points, I think this is a point that is worth reiterating:

Just go and find that BBC poll, where less than 20% of the people of Scotland would vote 'yes' if they were £500 a year worse off, while 40% of people wouldn't vote yes even if they were £500 a year better off (so don't see themselves as that 'nation' under any circumstances).

If people are voting for independence, not because they believe in it in terms of principle/idealism/etc. and instead because they think they'll be better off, it's not actually a referendum that answers the question. "Do you want to be richer?" is very different from "Do you want to be independent?" and I think the SNP are part of the reason the lines between those questions have been blurred.

[eFestivals]

If people are voting for independence, not because they believe in it in terms of principle/idealism/etc. and instead because they think they'll be better off, it's not actually a referendum that answers the question. "Do you want to be richer?" is very different from "Do you want to be independent?" and I think the SNP are part of the reason the lines between those questions have been blurred.

Yep, they can't win the vote on the independence question but only via economic bribery, that much is perfectly clear.

[eFestivals]

As your comments have added nothing new to the debate, I shall simply note that I disagree & get on with my life.

I do love this, it's just sooooo cybernat.

It paraphrases as "I'll keep on believing and saying what can't be stood up as reasonable on the basis of evidence, and so I have to duck out of any debates".

It's fair enough to put hopes into one extreme opinion amongst the whole range of opinions if that's what you wish to do, and you might even strike lucky with one of those extreme opinions coming in on the money.

But to pretend that that extreme opinion is "expert" and what is likely to happen when others who certainly have no less expertise say vastly different things is a religious type belief and not an intellectual type of belief.