The Dirty Independence Question

[Comfy Bean]

You agree, then contradict yourself though. That's why we're getting frustrated. There's not much difference between voting for a tory govt and taking action that could stop it.

I`m sorry " we " are getting frustrated.

In fairness and apologies for stating the obvious but last year I did take action that could stop a Tory Government. I voted YES to an Independent Scotland

I also posted on here many times that I hoped that the consequences of my vote would prove in time to be a good thing for Scotland and England and Wales and the Irish. With Westminster broken up it would have been the chance for a fresh start. I believe that the Scottish Labour Party could have returned to their core and would have headed left as the opposition to the SNP. Trident would also have been pushed into the spotlight with not just the folks in Scotland saying it was a total waste of money.

I have also posted that the smaller Parliament would have been more representative and I voted Patrick Harvie my man of the match. In an indy Scotland Labour would have been a " real " opposition to the SNP. As I said earlier, I think the SNP will get it all their own way next year.

[eFestivals]

30% is also the figure Neil quoted earlier who don`t think the Smith commission delivered.

just for clarity, that's not quite what I said. It's not a poll on whether Smith is meeting the pre-indyref unionist promises.

That 30% is the percentage of those who don't think Smith goes far enough with the powers it gives to Scotland (from whichever polling company took that poll, I forget).

In the other 70% there are people who think Smith went too far, for example (probably hardcore unionists, in much the same way most of that 30% are likely to be hardline nats).

Murphy ( Scottish Labour ) seems to have one thing to say. Vote SNP get Tory ( he should sign up on here ). Well 2 things sorry. I watched him on the box on Sunday saying how he would vote against fracking this week. He didn`t, he abstained.

I've no idea why he abstained, and I won't speculate why. What I will say are the reasons for why someone, anyone, might decide to support fracking in Scotland:-

1. Scotland needs the money.

2. Scotland needs the money

3. Scotland needs the money.

4. Scotland needs the money

etc, etc, etc

Grangemouth's future is fracking, else it'll get shut down soonish. Can Scotland afford to lose those jobs?

With the oil income shrinking away and it being an important part of Scotland's needed income, fracking could help cover some of the lost oil income.

Etc, etc, etc. Every angle needs to be considered by every politician for those politicians to reach the best answer for the country.

[eFestivals]

In fairness and apologies for stating the obvious but last year I did take action that could stop a Tory Government. I voted YES to an Independent Scotland

can I also state the obvious, and say that would have given Scotland worse-than-tory public spending cuts?

Or is that bit not allowed to be mentioned?

[gary1979666]

Yes, but that vote was lost, albeit narrowly, but we're now talking about a different vote.

If you're saying you want to vote for the SNP, for whatever reason, but understand that may help make the Torys biggest party in the UK, then that's fine or that you think the chances of an overall Tory win are small even with a big SNP return, so acceptable risk. But you seem to be disputing that bit of it.

I don't think anyone's questioning your rationale, but more you denial of responsibility in the consequences.

[Comfy Bean]

I'm going to be voting Green in Bristol West in the GE. It's currently polling to be a 3-way marginal between Green, Labour and Lib Dem, with the first two being favourites.

I think this is a good use of your vote. I hope the Greens win. Without your vote this would be less likely

I am very aware that a consequence of this could be the Tories form the next government. I think it unlikely, and I'm willing to take that risk because I believe having another Green MP, and having one in my constituency, is better for the future of the country and its politics than having Labour in would be.

Again I agree. Lots of people are going to vote Tory. The Tories best represent their views so they should vote for them in the same way as you should vote for who best represents your beliefs.

In 12 months time, I may regret this decision. I want Labour to form the next government, but I also want an end to 2-party politics with single-party majorities. I want a credible centre-left alternative, etc. If I don't support minor parties in the next election or two, I feel we could end up returning to the 2-party system.

Stand by your decision. Your concious will be clear ( thats a bit dramatic but hopefully you know what I mean )

If comfy feels the prospect of a SNP MP and a Tory government is preferable to a Labour MP and Labour government, that's his choice, but there won't be any party with a comfortable majority, and the SNP will not form part of any coalition. They may have an agreement in principle to support a Labour minority, but it's trusting in other areas of the country to vote as you want. I'm gambling on it, and I'd be hypocritical to say comfy shouldn't, but it's vital to be aware that every seat Labour could win and doesn't, increases the chances of the Tories remaining in power.

In my area there will be a Labour MP and I`m hoping for a Labour PM. I think you are bang on with the SNP not forming part of a coalition. NS has said NO to the Tories already and she knows fine well that the " offer " of working with Labour will undermine Murphys one and only line while the Trident thing ( which she know scottish labour voters agree with her on ) will never be something Labour can agree to.

I would add that with your posts over the months ( not just today ) on the more realistic number of seats the SNP will win you seem to have a decent grasp on whats happening up here.

[eFestivals]

I would add that with your posts over the months ( not just today ) on the more realistic number of seats the SNP will win you seem to have a decent grasp on whats happening up here.

which says that the comfy has a good grasp, and that the pollsters don't.

Care to tell me what analysis you;'re doing that betters what the pollsters are doing?

Or might it be a similar claim to the many that were heard saying that the indyref was going to be won (with plenty saying by a decent margin)?

[Comfy Bean]

just for clarity, that's not quite what I said. It's not a poll on whether Smith is meeting the pre-indyref unionist promises.

That 30% is the percentage of those who don't think Smith goes far enough with the powers it gives to Scotland (from whichever polling company took that poll, I forget).

In the other 70% there are people who think Smith went too far, for example (probably hardcore unionists, in much the same way most of that 30% are likely to be hardline nats).

I've no idea why he abstained, and I won't speculate why. What I will say are the reasons for why someone, anyone, might decide to support fracking in Scotland:-

1. Scotland needs the money.

2. Scotland needs the money

3. Scotland needs the money.

4. Scotland needs the money

etc, etc, etc

Grangemouth's future is fracking, else it'll get shut down soonish. Can Scotland afford to lose those jobs?

With the oil income shrinking away and it being an important part of Scotland's needed income, fracking could help cover some of the lost oil income.

Etc, etc, etc. Every angle needs to be considered by every politician for those politicians to reach the best answer for the country.

Yeah, sorry I realise we are talking about slightly different 30% `s...Hope that makes sense. I see now I have caught up your 30% group in the ones I was talking about.

I`m saying that around 30% are the core Indy fans who will NOT vote for Labour ever again. My point on Murphy on fracking was what I saw him say on BBC1 on Sunday morning then what he did a day or two later when he had a chance to have a vote on it ( ie nothing ).

Did you read that interview I just posted with him. Tell me it`s not a shambles. Trust me, I wish I wasn`t saying that. Would be interested in your views on what he is saying. He is the man with most chance of changing things.

[Comfy Bean]

which says that the comfy has a good grasp, and that the pollsters don't.

Care to tell me what analysis you;'re doing that betters what the pollsters are doing?

Or might it be a similar claim to the many that were heard saying that the indyref was going to be won (with plenty saying by a decent margin)?

Time will tell sir. I just thought the majority on here were getting a bit carried away with what the polls were saying. I remember Kaos was not joining in. Nothing more nothing less. I would add that you yourself have softened your stance away from a yellow landslide.

Oh and I never once posted that I thought YES would win. I posted dozens of times that I thought they would lose. I narrowed my 60 / 40 NO prediction marginally when we did the prediction thing just before. I don`t think I have a good grasp on things at all. I have an opinion though and i never got caught up in the 40+ hype.

[eFestivals]

I`m saying that around 30% are the core Indy fans who will NOT vote for Labour ever again.

i'd say that's something entirely different, I'd say it's 30% who are solidly wedded to the idea of indy. There's been a 20% of those in Scotland for a long long while.

Were they previously Labour voters? Given the Labour dominance in Scotland for a long while then probably plenty were, but from studying results prior to an SNP win of any seat, it seems pretty clear that plenty weren't too.

Where did all those Scottish tory voters disappear to, for example? The SNP didn't have them shot.

And 50 years ago, Scotland voted solidly tory; then it went Labour; now it's gone SNP. Given how much voting clearly switches around in Scotland (more-so than other parts of the UK) it would take a brave man to say 'never' about Scotland, I'd say.

My point on Murphy on fracking was what I saw him say on BBC1 on Sunday morning then what he did a day or two later when he had a chance to have a vote on it ( ie nothing ).

Did you read that interview I just posted with him. Tell me it`s not a shambles. Trust me, I wish I wasn`t saying that. Would be interested in your views on what he is saying. He is the man with most chance of changing things.

As I said, my words about fracking weren't about Murphy. I was pointing out the important nuances of fracking for Scotland.

(and, btw, do you think the fracking ban would have happened 6 months ago? I don't think there'd have been a hope in hell of that, cos the SNP are not so stupid as to take Scotland even deeper into the shit than they might otherwise do in pursuing their dream. It's happened now because there's not a hope in hell of fracking happening in Scotland because it's not economic with the current low prices).

I've not read the interview, and I won't, soz. It's not relevant for a UK election, and by buying into the belief that Scotland has a right to a special status in the UK you're showing you don't get the UK political process.

[Comfy Bean]

Yes, but that vote was lost, albeit narrowly, but we're now talking about a different vote.

If you're saying you want to vote for the SNP, for whatever reason, but understand that may help make the Torys biggest party in the UK, then that's fine or that you think the chances of an overall Tory win are small even with a big SNP return, so acceptable risk. But you seem to be disputing that bit of it.

I don't think anyone's questioning your rationale, but more you denial of responsibility in the consequences.

Apologies if you or anyone else thinks I am in denial of the reponsibilities of me not voting Labour ( in reality none ) but anyway I thought I had made it crystal clear that I realised that every seat the SNP take from Labour will increase the chances of another Tory Govt. I keep saying that I get the maths of you and Neil`s Tory victory arguement thing. I had assumed that you folks accepted that the voting around me will also do little to add to the Tory`s push for the 300 or whatever it is.

I get the maths.

I get the reponsibility.

I get the consequences.

My opinion is that others will be more responsible than me ( those actually voting for the Tories )

I also get the geography/size issue so I need to rely on the good folks in England also getting all of this.

[eFestivals]

Time will tell sir. I just thought the majority on here were getting a bit carried away with what the polls were saying. I remember Kaos was not joining in. Nothing more nothing less. I would add that you yourself have softened your stance away from a yellow landslide.

My position is unchanged. I've never been convinced at the suggestions of 40+ SNP seats because I can see reasons for why that might not be how it pans out, but at the same time I wouldn't dream of thinking that my own take on things is better than the take of the professional pollsters who are looking at the data in much more depth than me.

So I wouldn't be surprised at any result from 20 seats to 50 seats. The only certainty i have is that the SNP will do better than before.

Oh and I never once posted that I thought YES would win.

It wasn't said about you, or about posts here. My following of Scottish political opinion has been done in many places including the likes of WoS and BellaC.

[Comfy Bean]

I've not read the interview, and I won't, soz. It's not relevant for a UK election, and by buying into the belief that Scotland has a right to a special status in the UK you're showing you don't get the UK political process.

You read it didn`t you

Murphy more than anyone else can win Labour votes up here. Thats why they picked him. Not relevant to the General election. Scottish Labour votes ? I`m confused ( again ) what do you mean.

He has a great deal of responsibility in all this surely ?

[Comfy Bean]

It wasn't said about you, or about posts here. My following of Scottish political opinion has been done in many places including the likes of WoS and BellaC.

Fair enough. Youve spoken alot about the wings one and Bella is a new one on me. I ain`t on facebook but I`m sure you or LJS maybe have posted links to the Wings one on here.

I think it`s a bit unfair to use comments below articles or on these sites due to the roasters on both sides.

[eFestivals]

You read it didn`t you

Nope, i really didn't. It's 100% meaningless from where i'm sat, and so there's other things I'd choose to read in preference.

Murphy more than anyone else can win Labour votes up here.

which says more about the limited thinking of the Scottish electorate than it does anything of Murphy.

And that applies to how those people choose to take Murphy too.

Thats why they picked him. Not relevant to the General election. Scottish Labour votes ? I`m confused ( again ) what do you mean.

He has a great deal of responsibility in all this surely ?

It's a UK election.

What part of "there is no Scotland in a UK election" are you finding hard to grasp?

[gary1979666]

Apologies if you or anyone else thinks I am in denial of the reponsibilities of me not voting Labour ( in reality none ) but anyway I thought I had made it crystal clear that I realised that every seat the SNP take from Labour will increase the chances of another Tory Govt. I keep saying that I get the maths of you and Neil`s Tory victory arguement thing. I had assumed that you folks accepted that the voting around me will also do little to add to the Tory`s push for the 300 or whatever it is.

I get the maths.

I get the reponsibility.

I get the consequences.

My opinion is that others will be more responsible than me ( those actually voting for the Tories )

I also get the geography/size issue so I need to rely on the good folks in England also getting all of this.

Then I shall leave the matter.

[eFestivals]

Fair enough. Youve spoken alot about the wings one and Bella is a new one on me. I ain`t on facebook but I`m sure you or LJS maybe have posted links to the Wings one on here.

I think it`s a bit unfair to use comments below articles or on these sites due to the roasters on both sides.

I agree with that last line (tho there's only one side on those sites, apart from the occasional exceedingly brave person who is prepared to give some real facts).

It's not only those sites I look at. I go into the more-mainstream areas as well.

Sadly, in all places there's a big aversion to the facts by nats.

[Comfy Bean]

And yet 1.5M Scots intend voting SNP, whose express purpose is to fuck England over to Scotland's advantage.

Do you think no one in England is noticing, or that nothing of that situation will factor into their own thinking?

Do you still think this many will vote SNP ?

[eFestivals]

Do you still think this many will vote SNP ?

the opinion polls say more than that will, if the turnout is the same as it was for the indyref*.

(* not really as likely to be quite as high, tho Scotland has the highest turnout of the UK in recent years/decades).

[kaosmark2]

Cheers for the reply comfy. I think it is the right use of my vote, hence why I'm doing it, I just wanted to make a comparison as I don't believe I, or anyone else who has stopped labour getting a seat, is completely without culpability for a Tory Government forming.

One thing though :

I did take action that could stop a Tory Government. I voted YES to an Independent Scotland

I just want to emphasise a point I've made before. An "independent" Scotland would still be beholden to the policies of rUK, with Westminster then more likely to be run by tories. A vote for independence was always going to increase Tory influence short and mid term.

[DomDom1984]

The turnout won't be as it was for the indyref. I'd say it'll be a fair bit lower actually, nevermind a wee bit. But I think that'll damage everyone but the SNP. I still don't think they'll meet the absolutely wild predictions thrown their way though.

[eFestivals]

The turnout won't be as it was for the indyref. I'd say it'll be a fair bit lower actually, nevermind a wee bit. But I think that'll damage everyone but the SNP. I still don't think they'll meet the absolutely wild predictions thrown their way though.

Wasn't the high turnout in the indyref being credited with giving the SNP such a high level of support? I thought it was.

I suppose our different take on just that part is similar to how come the predictions vary as much as they do, too. Opposing significances and strengths can be put so many different ways around it that it could be almost anything.

I'm thinking tho that much of the SNP's gain is going to come from ex-LibDem voters and not ex-Labour voters (to the extent that some are suggesting, anyway), but that's just a hunch based on the LibDem vote being expected to collapse and those voters needing somewhere to go.

Then again, I expect the Libdem vote to mostly hold up where they currently have seats, tho most particularly where the tories are the 2nd party in that seat (which i'm guessing is more in England than Scotland).

Too many variables, arghhhhh.

Edited January 30, 2015 by eFestivals

[DomDom1984]

The indyref was about much more than the SNP though. And many No voters wouldn't have voted for a long time, if at all, as well. The SNP played a big part in the Yes vote, but I think both sides are as important as the other here, in terms of the election.

It's about enthusiasm. The "Yes" voters were giving it all of the loud and proud stuff and were the vocal minority. I can imagine many of them will be staying behind and voting in the GE for the SNP. I don't think as many will be doing the same for Labour and the Tories. They did their bit, got the No vote, and won't vote again for a while. Nothing to base that on but a hunch of course, but I don't think I'm wrong.

There are enough places staunchly labour here though, and I think that's the difference between what the SNP are expected to get and want to get, and they actually WILL get.

[eFestivals]

The indyref was about much more than the SNP though.

true, tho the narrative and numbers since suggest the yes-ers are now the SNPers, to a large extent anyway. There'll be some added no-ers, who are happy for the SNP to represent them but only within a UK.

And many No voters wouldn't have voted for a long time, if at all, as well. The SNP played a big part in the Yes vote, but I think both sides are as important as the other here, in terms of the election.

Hmmm .... if everything was about equal with this, wouldn't that suggest the much-lauded 'grassroots' movement was just about meaningless in terms of getting voters out to vote, as the no side managed much the same?

It's about enthusiasm. The "Yes" voters were giving it all of the loud and proud stuff and were the vocal minority. I can imagine many of them will be staying behind and voting in the GE for the SNP. I don't think as many will be doing the same for Labour and the Tories. They did their bit, got the No vote, and won't vote again for a while. Nothing to base that on but a hunch of course, but I don't think I'm wrong.

They'll no doubt be a natural drop off in all directions because a GE is a less-big issue, and I'm sure there's a fair number of tories who no longer bother to vote because it's become 'not the done thing' in Scotland.

But outside of those, the general stats say that the (small c) conservative types are more likely to vote than the noisy enthusiastic types - which should better-support the Labour vote too.

Tho these things are built into the models that the pollsters use already, so I'm not thinking the actual vote share will be much different to the polls. The question is really about how those votes might translate into seats.

The pollsters in Scotland have a bad record with putting the vote share right for the seats - they badly underestimated the SNP seats number (but not vote share) in 2011, so I reckon there's a decent chance they're over-compensating for it now.

[eFestivals]

Tho I'm being 100% honest when I say I don't know whether the "full fiscal independence" that the SNP have said they'll demand is actually "full fiscal independence", or whether it's really "full fiscal independence plus financial support from the rest of the UK".

So could you please clarify if you know?

From something I read over the weekend, Salmond's version is definitely "full fiscal autonomy without a Barnet top-up".

Whether that's the SNP's approved version I've no idea, cos Salmond still seems to be acting as tho he thinks he's still leader.

But anyway: Salmond wants bigger cuts for Scotland than the tories plan.

Have any SNP voters noticed?

Edited February 2, 2015 by eFestivals

[MichaelsBeard]

I met my first Yes voter over the weekend who admitted had he known about the oil crash he wouldn't have voted that way. First (yes) person I've met who's conceded Scotland would have been in a precarious position if the vote had went their way.

The penny will drop, eventually, I think. Maybe when Gers are produced in Spring.