The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

You prove it all the time yourself, each and every time you refuse to accept the truth of Scotland's financial position - even when it's said by the Scottish Govt you support..

I've yet to see any yes-er accept the truth of Scotland's financial position, and i've certainly never see any yes-er try to convi8nce others to yes via the trruth of Scotkand's position.

Instead, those yes-ers spout the same bollocks as Salmond, that indie Scotkand will be without-doubt richer.

And not a soul every says "and for a number of years we'll HAVE TO HAVE big cuts in spending, before we stand any chance of things getting better again".

Only when yes-ers campaign with truth can yes-ers stand any chance of winning the argument. Until then, indie will always be for losers.

& I didn't hear any No-ers campaigning saying..." Vote no to stay in the UK that has delivered a deficit of billions and a debt of trillions.

I just happen to think we couldn't do worse.

[gary1979666]

A few points from the post since yesterday:

-Yes both Scotland and rUK have deficits, but I think it's pretty safe to say the interest paid by rUK would be at a much better rate the iScotland would be charged, esp given the recent figures. So cuts would need to be even deeper.

-I think I saw Comfy asking how much interest Scotland contributed to - easy answer - none - you're in a massive deficit, the interest is just getting added to the lump sum we owe. And given Scotland has a bigger deficit, there a slim to none chance of them paying any interest.

-Higher tax take per person - think this may be down to less lower paid jobs as a proportion of the population. So richer people overall, hence a higher tax take. Might be wrong on this. Maybe more scope to increase takes up there - go on NS, dares ya.

-Comfy also said:

Money flowing from Scotland to pay for infrastructure projects doesn`t count as the honest and straight MP`s who lead us often decide they are of benefit to all of the UK so have no barnett consequential but the loss of cash would surely affect cash per head figures in any " real " calc.

Again - in a deficit position, you can't pay for all your spend in Scotland, let alone pay for the trainsets etc down here.

Edit - the quote is comfy's - not LJS' - was struggling to quote from a different page.

Edited March 13, 2015 by gary1979666

[eFestivals]

& I didn't hear any No-ers campaigning saying..." Vote no to stay in the UK that has delivered a deficit of billions and a debt of trillions.

And there was me thinking that Scotland had discovered a new political party called the 'red tories' on the basis of Labour's acceptance of the financial reality of the UK and the need for cuts.

The tories and Labour campaigned on the basis of "vote no for more of the same". Care to tell me how that wasn't the honesty about cuts and debts you say wasn't there?

As ever, lies trump truth to yes-ers. Now they're even lying about their own lies.

PS: you seem to have missed the part where the SNP campaigned on the basis of "Vote yes to leave the UK to create a deficit of billions and a debt of trillions for Scotland".

I just happen to think we couldn't do worse.

in which case you need someone to come up with a plan that ensures you won't do worse.

As yet, no one has. There is no plan, there is just empty rhetoric that hopes to convince people with lies.

Where is the claimed Scottish exceptionalism? No one knows.

Edited March 13, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

And there was me thinking that Scotland had discovered a new political party called the 'red tories' on the basis of Labour's acceptance of the financial reality of the UK and the need for cuts.

The tories and Labour campaigned on the basis of "vote no for more of the same". Care to tell me how that wasn't the honesty about cuts and debts you say wasn't there?

As ever, lies trump truth to yes-ers. Now they're even lying about their own lies.

in which case you need someone to come up with a plan that ensures you won't do worse.

As yet, no one has. There is no plan, there is just empty rhetoric that hopes to convince people with lies.

Where is the claimed Scottish exceptionalism? No one knows.

The only Scottish exceptionalism is me taking exception to your constant claims is Scottish exceptionalism. We don't claim to be any more exceptional than anyone else.

[eFestivals]

We don't claim to be any more exceptional than anyone else.

then how do you think Scotland will outperform the economic average?

Unless Scotland outperforms the economic average, the wealth gap between England and Scotland will continue to grow if Scotland were independent.

Edited March 13, 2015 by eFestivals

[Comfy Bean]

I thought everyone already realised that " we " were financially fucked

if you personally do, you've never been able to actually say it out loud here. You've run away from all opportunities to say that.

Vote SNP, vote 15% cuts for Scotland.

My goodness. I have made countless posts acknowledging the clusterfuck of our finances. Anyone remember the tedious number of times I posted the link to the UK debt bomb site ? It`s almost as tedious as the number of times I have to reply to posts like the one above

[Comfy Bean]

So moving forward, 34 years in a row - True or False and does it include London ?

4th " best " performing region in UK. With our population density is this against all odds ?

Are we saying that GERS does not assign Scotland a population share of UK debt interest payments irrespective of the relative strength or otherwise of Scotland`s fiscal position ( for 34 years in a row ).

£400 per head higher in tax take and all Scottish Govt staff on living wage. NS working hard to extend the living wage throughout the Scottish economy and introduce a fairer council tax system.

Do we agree that the introduction of a higher tax bracket for the big earners could see the gap widen and the 34 year run continue ?

[Comfy Bean]

Todays oil update. " Cautious optimism in the sector ". More jobs on the way.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/oil-and-gas-sector-set-for-8-000-new-jobs-1-3718085

[Comfy Bean]

A nice wee story released today by the Accounts Commision on how things can still be done under budget

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-31840344

[eFestivals]

My goodness. I have made countless posts acknowledging the clusterfuck of our finances. Anyone remember the tedious number of times I posted the link to the UK debt bomb site ? It`s almost as tedious as the number of times I have to reply to posts like the one above

You off-load Scotland's position onto the UK, to suggest that nothing of Scotland's worst position counts for anything.

Can you acknowledge Scotland's significantly worse position, and what that would mean to Scottish public spending if Scotland had either of FFA or indie?

Or will you run away from the truth yet again?

[Comfy Bean]

I don`t remember me or LJS ever saying Scotland should walk away from our share of the massive UK debt. Quite the opposite. I accept that the interest figure that a new indy Scotland would have been able to negotiate may well have been higher than what rUK would have been able to get but some might dispute that.

It would have been good to know how that would have played out as obviously Scotlands debt would have been much less ( in total ) due to population size. Some day we may find out how both sides would have attempted to get out of the mess we are in. I know Dave was talking about working towards a UK surplus but that seems a long way off and I struggle to believe a word of it. Breaking up the debt may have proved a good thing for both sides.

[eFestivals]

So moving forward, 34 years in a row - True or False and does it include London ?

4th " best " performing region in UK. With our population density is this against all odds ?

the other parts of the UK don't get free money - tho an-ever-shrinking amount - pumped ashore.

Are we saying that GERS does not assign Scotland a population share of UK debt interest payments irrespective of the relative strength or otherwise of Scotland`s fiscal position ( for 34 years in a row ).

GERS assigns Scotland it's own share of then UK debt, as it right and proper as all of the UK has equal responsibility for that debt.

The fact that the Scottish Govt includes its share of the debt within GERS is a Scottish acknowledgement of that share. Alex could have chosen to exclude it as he does so much else which he feels are not Scotland's responsibility.

So there's no mileage for you there, unless you're advocating that a principled indie Scotland should be a common thief.

£400 per head higher in tax take

and £1,200 in spending, leaving minus £800.

and all Scottish Govt staff on living wage.

not in the period which the latest GERS covers.

NS working hard to extend the living wage throughout the Scottish economy

paid for by the money sent to Scotland by England.

...and introduce a fairer council tax system.

PMSL - council debts in Scotland have doubled under the SNP.

Do we agree that the introduction of a higher tax bracket for the big earners could see the gap widen and the 34 year run continue ?

Yep, it would do ... and that gap would also widen if Scotland lowered it's tax take.

The problem is that Scotland is living beyond its means. That only gets addressed within FFA or indie via massive spending cuts for Scotland, bigger than the tories plan.

Luckily, for all of the time that Scotland is within the union it doesn't matter, as you have a nice neighbour that happy to send Scotland money.

It's only when Scotland wants to stand on its own too feet that Scotland goes into freefall.

[Comfy Bean]

You off-load Scotland's position onto the UK, to suggest that nothing of Scotland's worst position counts for anything.

Can you acknowledge Scotland's significantly worse position, and what that would mean to Scottish public spending if Scotland had either of FFA or indie?

Or will you run away from the truth yet again?

I can sadly accept as many times as you like that the finances are a shambles, the debt is massive and servicing the interest is holding us all back. It`s apples and oranges though mate. I`m not disputing the GERS figures ( apart from why Scotland is the only region to count the costs of water ). It`s pretty clear to me though that if Scotland had voted Indy we would not have been " restricted " by dave and Osbournes austerity plans. NS has always said she believes in a different approach but we voted to come back to Dave. We can only speculate how an Indy Scotland would have performed or otherwise. I have tried to highlight a couple of positives in the figures from the other day which give hope but for sure the overall picture is bleak. Give NS the Levers, then we might have a better idea.

In reality, you have as much idea on how an Indy Scotland would have performed as I do. We do of course have our own opinions which would appear to be at opposite ends of the scale. Unless you are taking the same stance as the one where you know how much the oil price will be next year

[eFestivals]

I don`t remember me or LJS ever saying Scotland should walk away from our share of the massive UK debt. Quite the opposite. I accept that the interest figure that a new indy Scotland would have been able to negotiate may well have been higher than what rUK would have been able to get but some might dispute that.

It would have been good to know how that would have played out as obviously Scotlands debt would have been much less ( in total ) due to population size. Some day we may find out how both sides would have attempted to get out of the mess we are in. I know Dave was talking about working towards a UK surplus but that seems a long way off and I struggle to believe a word of it. Breaking up the debt may have proved a good thing for both sides.

Fuck me, you run away faster than Cameron from a democratic debate.

Can you acknowledge Scotland's significantly worse position, and what that would mean to Scottish public spending if Scotland had either of FFA or indie?

Or will you run away from the truth yet again?

[Comfy Bean]

You right about the Councils debt problems. Have a think about the point I was making though. NS is looking at introducing a new scheme to raise revenue for local authorities but wants it to be fairer ie folks who can afford to pay more contribute more than those who cant. This would help as council tax rates have been frozen for years. the new health and Social care plans up here from 1/4 should also give a financial boost to council services.

Do you think the LA`s funding may have been affected by cuts to the central grant from westminster ? Just a thought.

[Comfy Bean]

Fuck me, you run away faster than Cameron from a democratic debate.

Can you acknowledge Scotland's significantly worse position, and what that would mean to Scottish public spending if Scotland had either of FFA or indie?

Or will you run away from the truth yet again?

You cant handle the truth *

I`ve already said I don`t dispute the gers figures. I know what £1200 - £400 is. Apart from the water bit.

What it would mean under Indie.............I`ve made my point already on this hypothetical situation. I can see no set of circumstances where Scotland would be Independent within the next 10 years. Although I cannot see into the future so you never know.

You got anything to add on the Geography issue around delivering services in Scotland ?

* a few good men

[eFestivals]

It`s pretty clear to me though that if Scotland had voted Indy we would not have been " restricted " by dave and Osbournes austerity plans.

True.

Scotland would have been even-more restricted by its own much worse financial position.

I see you still can't face the truth of what GERS says.

NS has always said she believes in a different approach

spending money Scotland doesn't have and can't afford will make Scotland the next Greece.

Her "different approach" is the same approach as Alex. That approach is to lie like lies have never been spun, until it's too late and Scotland has to face the truth of massive cuts - hugely greater than the tories will give you.

If the tories win, I suspect they'll give Scotland FFA whether NS wants it or not, and then you can learn for yourself the truth of the SNP plans.

We can only speculate how an Indy Scotland would have performed or otherwise.

there's this thing called "reality", which always impinges into mindless high hopes.

Greece is currently discovering that you can't abolish reality with a democratic vote.

I have tried to highlight a couple of positives in the figures from the other day which give hope but for sure the overall picture is bleak.

positives? There are no positives. on every measure Scotland is clearly in a worse position than the whole-UK.

Give NS the Levers, then we might have a better idea.

or you might be Greece.

Given that you find small-ish tory cuts beyond the pale and a self-financing Scotland cannot afford to make cuts that small, you'll quickly find out that NS has no better ideas. All attempts at massive growth in mature economies fail.

Until you or anyone else can show even one example of a country doing what you hope for Scotland, there's more sense in one of my farts.

In reality, you have as much idea on how an Indy Scotland would have performed as I do. We do of course have our own opinions which would appear to be at opposite ends of the scale. Unless you are taking the same stance as the one where you know how much the oil price will be next year

even with high oil prices and high production, Scotland's average has been significantly worse the whole-UK.

It doesn't take guesses, it only takes referencing the facts - the one thing no yes-er will do.

Edited March 13, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Do you think the LA`s funding may have been affected by cuts to the central grant from westminster ? Just a thought.

do you think LA's funding from the centre would be even lower if Scotland was self-funding?

The SG has robbed those local councils to pay for its pet projects of middle-class privileges. What part of that don't you understand?

LA's in England have had smaller cuts - despite English % cuts equalling Scottish % cuts - and their debts haven't grown as Scottish LA's debts have.

Scottish LA's are being fucked over by the Scottish govt, not by Westminster.

[eFestivals]

in case it's passing you by, comfy, the SG loading debts onto LA's is the SG's way of getting around the "no borrowing" rule - so no one in Scotland can now claim the SNP running a balanced budget.

And before you say it....

If that "no borrowing" rule is to be revoked, it will have to mean that Westminster stops sending Scotland borrowed money. Westminster will not agree to cover Scottish debts without having control over the level of those debts.

Edited March 13, 2015 by eFestivals

[Comfy Bean]

The Scottish Govt provided extra funding through the Scottish Welfare Fund to help LA`s ( I may have mentioned it before ). Of course this money had to come at a cost elsewhere. I`m sure you know about the Local Govt cuts from Wm.....in fact I know you do.

The borrowing rule and all the levers will give us a chance to actually know what NS would do and how it will affect our " performance ". Her messing up would of course be good news for Scottish Labour. We disagree on whether she will introduce a higher tax rate. Time will tell.

Anywayz, I`m about to head off to the boozer for my annual bookies benefit day. Does that crystal ball of yours have any tips for Cheltenham

[eFestivals]

The Scottish Govt provided extra funding through the Scottish Welfare Fund to help LA`s

Not enough, very clearly - else the average debts of Scottish LAs wouldn't have doubled in the last few years while the same hasn't happened with English LAs.

Of course this money had to come at a cost elsewhere.

Nope, the extra Scottish LA debts are what has paid for freebies for the middle classes, you know, at the expense of services to the poor.

Do you know that the SG spent more on Gaelic language services than it did on food programmes for the poor?

I`m sure you know about the Local Govt cuts from Wm.....in fact I know you do.

yep, I do.

In England, they're handed down to LAs directly by Westminster.

In Scotland, Scotland gets all its money in a block grant, and the SG decides how to distribute that money.

The SG has distributed bigger cuts to its LAs than Westminster has to English LAs - which is why the debts of Scottish LAs are growing so quickly.

The money the SG saved by not giving it to LAs has gone to pay for freebies for the middle classes,

The borrowing rule and all the levers will give us a chance to actually know what NS would do and how it will affect our " performance ".

when she has a costed plan that recognised economists will sign off as sensible, get back to me.

Her messing up would of course be good news for Scottish Labour.

and would completely fuck the Scottish poor that you claim to want indie for.

Perhaps some of us aren't happy for Scotland to shit on its poor? I've personally been condemning them for shitting on their poor to give the middle class extra privileges for an number of years now.

We disagree on whether she will introduce a higher tax rate. Time will tell.

she'll only ever do it if she can hand off the blame to Westminster.

The very thing the SNP and its supporters won't do is take responsibility for SNP choices. See your own words about Scottish LAs.

Does that crystal ball of yours have any tips for Cheltenham

yeah. Put the SG's block grant on a horse, any horse. It's your one chance of Scotland having a better economic future outside of the union.

[LJS]

Ahhh, that wonderful Scottish excpetionalism, that cannot fail to make Scotland n economic powerhouse.

That'll be via sound policies like joining the arc of prosperity bankruptcy, and the Euro, and having the most lax banking regulation in the world - all advocated by the economically exceptional Scots.

Is that your first admission that the yes campaign was based in billy-bullshit, LJS?

what about a decision based on 25 years of numbers, 40 years of numbers or 60 years of numbers?

Whichever timeframe you pick, the numbers always say the same thing - that Scotland would be poorer if independent.

What part don't you believe? The numbers from the past or how those numbers might play out in the future?

If things will play out better in the future, can you please show me the exceptional policies that will bring that about? If you or anyone else in Scotland knows how to create exceptional growth in a mature economy the rest of the world wants to know.

Of course I believe Scotland can do better running its own affairs & tailoring its policies to the needs of Scotland & not having to worry about the London housing market or the demands of the City.

There is as also a case to be made that small nations do better relatively than big ones.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/uk/en/news-and-expertise/news/economy/global-trends.article.html/article/pwp/news-and-expertise/2014/07/en/the-success-of-small-countries.html

[eFestivals]

Of course I believe Scotland can do better running its own affairs & tailoring its policies to the needs of Scotland & not having to worry about the London housing market or the demands of the City.

It will of course be able to direct where money is spent to its own satisfaction.

When it wants to spend more than it has - as it does, and constantly says - then that cures nothing.

There is as also a case to be made that small nations do better relatively than big ones.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/uk/en/news-and-expertise/news/economy/global-trends.article.html/article/pwp/news-and-expertise/2014/07/en/the-success-of-small-countries.html

It's also the case that it would take decades for that to bring its economy up to whole-UK levels where it could match today's public spending levels - if it ever does at all.

Given how you keep saying that you want an indie Scotland so the poor aren't shat upon, you wanting to shit on them for decades at a minimum without any guarantee of even matching today's levels is shitting on them worse than Westminster does.

But that "doing it for the poor" is shown as hollow anyway - else you'd already be ranting against the poor being robbed by the SG right now to benefit middle-class you.

So it's time to come clean: face up to that you're doing it for you, and stop with the "doing it for the poor" bollocks. That's the first step in honest indie, where you might eventually have a chance of winning. All the while the indie campaign uses lies enough people will see thru the lies and give indie no trust at all.

[eFestivals]

I see that "vote SNP get tory" isn't going to be an effective campaign strategy to win Labour voters back, cos an opinion poll has discovered why.

That's because very nearly half of those people who will vote SNP don't care if there's a tory govt, proving that those people don't give a shit about what happens to people in Scotland, they only care about "the cause".

And a very similar percentage think there's no difference between the tories and Labour, which proves those people politically inept and unable to deal with facts.

[LJS]

I see that "vote SNP get tory" isn't going to be an effective campaign strategy to win Labour voters back, cos an opinion poll has discovered why.

That's because very nearly half of those people who will vote SNP don't care if there's a tory govt, proving that those people don't give a shit about what happens to people in Scotland, they only care about "the cause".

And a very similar percentage think there's no difference between the tories and Labour, which proves those people politically inept and unable to deal with facts.

Or maybe they're just going by experience rather than promises?