The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

1. I didn't say anything about a Labour drop of support, I said about a rise in Tory support.

2. that rise in tory support starts *exactly* on the day the tories published the 'ed in Alex's pocket' poster.

FFS.

Think you need to head to specsavers. Oh & you might want to check what you said too. Edited April 27, 2015 by LJS

[Comfy Bean]

Do you think an informal coalition is as politically strong as a formal coalition or a majority?

If your answer is 'no', you've just voided your 'disagree; and replaced it with 'agree'.

If your answer is 'yes', you've just proven you have nothing sensible to say.

Take your pick.

You have changed the question though. You actually said " Voting SNP makes any " left " Govt less likely ".

I said in reply to this " disagree ".

I`ll try and keep up with this, your new position.

Define " strong " ?

Do I think a Government formed by Labour MP`s backed up by a group of around 30 SNP MP`s represents a " strong " set of values that I believe would be a better alternative to another 5 years of being led by the Tories with maybe a handful of MP`s from Ireland or UKIP or Lib`s or whoever then YES I`m happy that this would be stronger/better for the UK.

Some would say that a " stronger " Government would be one made up of only one party. I feared recently that we could end up with a Tory led Government but I now believe that we will see a group of anti-tory MP`s running the show. I also believe that it will be " stronger " than you think. The SNP are alot cleverer than you give them credit for - in my opinion. Their " machine " has another election in 2016 to think about remember.

Just remembered that no-one else seemed to have a view on the mansion tax thing I posted over the weekend. I`m not sure how your banding works down south so I`ll dig it up and would appreciate any responses.....even the odd pmsl

[eFestivals]

I`m not sure I`m buying this business about people in England voting Tory because of NS. If anything, any poll I`ve seen around UK approval ratings sees her doing really well. Much higher than Ed etc maybe some folk will go the other way - biut I doubt it.

Are we to believe that down in England we had someone who had decided that they would vote for Labour policies etc and not the Torie ones suddenly decide that they would give their vote to the Tories because of the way the people in Scotland are voting. Really ?

I`d imagine most people will vote for what they believe in. Sadly ( in my opinion ) a lot of people in England have chose to vote for the Tories. It`s like that and thats the way it is. Blaming this on NS just seems like another excuse to wade into the SNP and Scottish voters. People in Scotland do not return alot of Torie MP`s. People in England do. Labour should be romping this election and the way foks vote up my way should be totally irrelevant.........................like what used to happen

1. There's a poll out there which shows 8% wanting to vote 'left' but who are absolutely opposed to SNP involvement in any 'left' govt. It's the only proof we'll get around this.

2. Just because Sturgeon is popular with some doesn't make that everyone.

3. yes.... or are you so stupid as to think that all people who view themselves as left-ward match your own?

(even in Scotland 25% of 'the left' think Sturgeon is a moron)

4. yes, I'm sure most will vote for what they believe in. Even in your own country the majoroity are opposed to the SNP and for the union, so why do you think they'd rate better outside of Scotland? It;s laughable.

5. The England tory vote won't be massively different to the Scottish tory vote, a minor proportion in both regions.

6. Sturgeon splitting the 'left' vote in Scotland and reducing the chances of Labour being able to claim themselves as indisputably the UK's govt is not any false blame on Sturgeon what what she causes.

7. Sturgeon splitting the 'left' vote in England by urging people to vote Green and causing more tory MPs to be returned as a result is not any false blame on Sturgeon what what she causes.

8. Labour *SHOULD* be romping home. It's *YOUR* vote that will stop them romping home. FFS.

9. Labour will get a similar share of the English vote to what they get when they normally get ba majority. The English are not deserting Labour, it's you who are deseretiung Labour and increasing the chances of a tory govt via that.

Yes, I know the cybernat myth, but only 'the people' decide what is a legitimate govt and what isn't. Not Sturgeon, not Miliband, Cameron, and not even how MPs decide to vote in support of a govt.

The Tory/LibDem coalition stood up because it had a clear majority of the vote and an absolute commitment to a solid govt.

It won't be the same for the situation your vote for Sturgeon causes.

Whether a 'loose left coalition' can stand up in the eyes of the people will depend on how 'the people' have voted - and that's about more than just the number of seats any grouping might have.

Edited April 27, 2015 by eFestivals

[gary1979666]

I`m not sure I`m buying this business about people in England voting Tory because of NS. If anything, any poll I`ve seen around UK approval ratings sees her doing really well. Much higher than Ed etc maybe some folk will go the other way - biut I doubt it.

Are we to believe that down in England we had someone who had decided that they would vote for Labour policies etc and not the Torie ones suddenly decide that they would give their vote to the Tories because of the way the people in Scotland are voting. Really ?

I`d imagine most people will vote for what they believe in. Sadly ( in my opinion ) a lot of people in England have chose to vote for the Tories. It`s like that and thats the way it is. Blaming this on NS just seems like another excuse to wade into the SNP and Scottish voters. People in Scotland do not return alot of Torie MP`s. People in England do. Labour should be romping this election and the way foks vote up my way should be totally irrelevant.........................like what used to happen

I guess it's the undecided that are waivering between Tory and Labour. People will tend to vote against change and the prospect of the SNP having an influence in government is a change that could sway them (as opposed to a Tory / Labour majority, neither of which sound likely).

I'd also say that historically, the Tories have seen a rise in their share as the election looms, so may not necessarily be as a result of the LabSNP posters - but can't deny they will have some effect.

[gary1979666]

I guess it's the undecided that are waivering between Tory and Labour. People will tend to vote against change and the prospect of the SNP having an influence in government is a change that could sway them (as opposed to a Tory / Labour majority, neither of which sound likely).

I'd also say that historically, the Tories have seen a rise in their share as the election looms, so may not necessarily be as a result of the LabSNP posters - but can't deny they will have some effect.

I would also add, that there are plenty of Kippers out there who would hate an SNP influence, so a big vote share for the Tories to win back.

[eFestivals]

Neil, why do you continue to lie about Nicola Sturgeon asking the English not to vote Labour? As far as I can see she has only given an opinion once. She said 3 things. She said there was a case for voting Green. She talked about supporting progressive Labour candidates. & she said it wasn't up to her to tell people in England how to vote.

If she really wanted to persuade the English not to vote Labour. You'd think she would try a bit harder.

It's not a lie. The lie is your denial of her words.

She's said "I want to see as many progressive voices in the House of Commons after the election – that is SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru.” Care to show me where that says "vote Labour"?

She's said "voting Labour would only be the right choice if the candidate is progressive and is prepared to challenge the party leadership" - in other words, don't support Labour.

She's said she would “probably be looking” at voting Green in May if she lives in England,

She's said she would “definitely” vote Plaid in Wales.

She's said "So that’s my advice, take it or leave it,"

But I've lied? PMSL. :lol:

Take your head out of your arse, and wake up to the lies you've swallowed and spout like good pledge-man you are.

Edited April 27, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

You have changed the question though. You actually said " Voting SNP makes any " left " Govt less likely ".

If a govt is less likely to stand up as valid in the eyes of 'the people', that makes it less likely.

FFS.

[gary1979666]

Going back a couple of pages Comfy brought up the stat that Scotland is the 2nd biggest revenue generator in the UK. It seems fair to take this as fact. But as LJS mentioned about the anti indy arguements being based on the status quo and not thinking what it could be like under independence - I think this stat is victim to the same thing. So while it's true now, there's a very good chance that a some businesses could move south of the border (and a lot threatened to last year). It would make sense for any of the biggies to stay part of the FTSE where there is security, rather than 'risk it'. I think that the Scotish revenues could drop under indy, so spending would need more of a trim too.

[eFestivals]

I guess it's the undecided that are waivering between Tory and Labour.

there's 20% of voters undecided.

That's a lot of votes to be won, and one way of winning them is pointing out that the SNP do not want an effective UK govt.

Because that's 100% true.

An effective UK govt undermines everything of the SNP.

Edited April 27, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

I guess it's the undecided that are waivering between Tory and Labour. People will tend to vote against change and the prospect of the SNP having an influence in government is a change that could sway them (as opposed to a Tory / Labour majority, neither of which sound likely).

I'd also say that historically, the Tories have seen a rise in their share as the election looms, so may not necessarily be as a result of the LabSNP posters - but can't deny they will have some effect.

I would say historically the governing party's vot goes up as the election nears & you can certainly see that over the past year. What little change there has been in the past few weeks seems to a a small increase in both Labour& Tory votes as the smaller parties in England are squeezed. I've no doubt some people are put off voting Labour because they dislike the SNP. However, it may well be that some folk move the other way because they like what they've seen of Nicola. There are lots of Jocks in England you know!

[gary1979666]

I would say historically the governing party's vot goes up as the election nears & you can certainly see that over the past year. What little change there has been in the past few weeks seems to a a small increase in both Labour& Tory votes as the smaller parties in England are squeezed. I've no doubt some people are put off voting Labour because they dislike the SNP. However, it may well be that some folk move the other way because they like what they've seen of Nicola. There are lots of Jocks in England you know!

I wouldn't deny that, but I don't think they're the target of that campaign and they'd be unlikely to vote Tory anyway, so they've lost nothing.

[kaosmark2]

Nvm

Edited April 27, 2015 by kaosmark2

[Comfy Bean]

Mansion Tax Update.

Saw Murph on the box last night. It`s more good news for us Jocks and in no way will this piss off Labour voters in England so we can all rejoice at the Saviour of the union.

We have established a few days ago ( backed up by a link from stv ) that The Murph DID promise 1000 EXTRA nurses for Scotland form the generous Londoners. He had a quick re-think ( as he is entitled to do ) and it`s now just the 1000 ( which is still good ) .......oh and plus 500 GP`s. As of yesterday Scotland are also being promised another £200 million EXTRA from this same pot of gold for mental health and £200million EXTRA for cancer care. He wasn`t at all happy when he was quizzed a bit on this but he said it so lets believe it`s all true

I`ve just had a wee google around this Mansion Tax plan just to make sure Jim has nailed it on this. There appears to be a bit of unrest in London and some talk of house prices in this ball park being affected by as much as 10%. Fortunately the guys won`t mind as it`s going to such good causes.

In Scotland we have a Council Tax banding system that goes A - G plus we have a few mansions or castles as we call them. I`m not sure how this works in England but maybe someone could chip in.

Does the mansion tax plan involve a re banding of properties to establish the current value ?

The Scottish Govt looked at this approx 5 years ago but it was binned. ALL properties ( unless they have been re-sold ) are currently in a band that was set in the 90`s. IF....anyone thinks about updating the current bands then they are going ( in the process ) to have to up the band of almost every house in the country are they not ?

The SNP recognised this was a hornets nest and are instead re-inventing the whole system to be something ( in their words ) fairer. Now we will of course have to wait and see what they come up with but it`s worth pointing out that Murphy`s plans are to leave the council tax as is and FREEZE it. While introducing a mansion tax.

In my crazy mind the SNP plans to re-write us a fairer system ( surely a higher charge for those with a big hoose but we will see ) is far more sensible than freezing the council tax and introducing a mansion tax ?

Neil I know you are a supporter of Murphy but on this point do you agree with him or do you prefer the way NS is approaching this ?

So mansion tax. Could house prices be affected ? The London property market seems crazy so I`m not sure if this would be possible ?

Plus do we side with NS and think reforming the whole system is a better move that Jim`s idea to freeze council tax. Happy to leave aside the various things he`s promising on the back of it as no-one knows for sure whether he is telling the truth on the numbers.

Labours big / last push up here seems to centre on this mansion tax money now.... anyone get on thoughts around this ?

Apart from it`s in the wrong thread ( I don`t know how to copy across to the GE thread )

[eFestivals]

I've no doubt some people are put off voting Labour because they dislike the SNP. However, it may well be that some folk move the other way because they like what they've seen of Nicola. There are lots of Jocks in England you know!

I've seen loads of peeps say they won't vote Labour because of the SNP.

(I've actually see a few say they won't be now voting Green, too)

I've not seen a single soul they'll vote Labour because of the SNP.

But don't let those facts stop your presumptions.

[kaosmark2]

I've seen loads of peeps say they won't vote Labour because of the SNP.

(I've actually see a few say they won't be now voting Green, too)

I've not seen a single soul they'll vote Labour because of the SNP.

But don't let those facts stop your presumptions.

The Snp are part of why I'm currently planning to vote labour over green. Most of it is a reaction to Labour looking a lot more impressive in the last 6 weeks though.

[eFestivals]

So mansion tax. Could house prices be affected ? The London property market seems crazy so I`m not sure if this would be possible ?

Of course they will be. Any interference in any market impacts onto prices.

Plus do we side with NS and think reforming the whole system is a better move that Jim`s idea to freeze council tax. Happy to leave aside the various things he`s promising on the back of it as no-one knows for sure whether he is telling the truth on the numbers.

Nicola has been able to reform the system in Scotland for the last eight years, and has done naff all.

But don't let the fact of the SNP doing absolutely nothing that's progressive stop you claiming them as progressive.

But, oh, she has frozen council tax, but apparently that's Jim's idea and wrong. PMSL.

And the frozen council tax has....? Saved more money for the richest than the poorest, cost the poorest the services they depend on, and has doubled the debts of Scottish councils to be paid off by the poor at some point down the line.... all hail the progressive ideas of the SNP.

(I'm guessing Jim is thinking "if the morons have fallen for this from the SNP, they'll fall for it when I say it too" - but you're not falling for it, which only proves again the hatred of Labour. Even when they make an SNP-approved promise it's nasty horrible English Labour )

(PPS: I'm sure you've fallen for the Nat's myth that Labour is a Scottish-founded party too, but it was founded in that there horrid London. Oh dear ).

Labours big / last push up here seems to centre on this mansion tax money now.... anyone get on thoughts around this ?

Unless the tax-take increases, Scotland is getting fuck all extra.

Why haven't you realised that?

Edited April 27, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

The Snp are part of why I'm currently planning to vote labour over green. Most of it is a reaction to Labour looking a lot more impressive in the last 6 weeks though.

Hey, then you're the first .... tho perhaps the fact you're Scottish has a part in this?

That 6 weeks has mostly differentiated where Labour differ to the not-progressive SNP.

Even the SNP's "anti-austerity" is a lie. They condemn Labour when planning to spend the same - except the SNP plan on pissing it up the wall, while Labour plan investments.

Given Scotland's desire that the UK invest hugely in Scotland until its deficit has gone so that it can then fuck off, I can't see Scotland doing very well with that investment.

But then again, it's the least deserving place of investment in the UK after London - but that part will never be said by a cybernat who claims Scotland is so prosperous it could self finance while demanding that money is sent from that there horrid London.

[kaosmark2]

Hey, then you're the first .... tho perhaps the fact you're Scottish has a part in this?

That 6 weeks has mostly differentiated where Labour differ to the not-progressive SNP.

Even the SNP's "anti-austerity" is a lie. They condemn Labour when planning to spend the same - except the SNP plan on pissing it up the wall, while Labour plan investments.

Given Scotland's desire that the UK invest hugely in Scotland until its deficit has gone so that it can then fuck off, I can't see Scotland doing very well with that investment.

But then again, it's the least deserving place of investment in the UK after London - but that part will never be said by a cybernat who claims Scotland is so prosperous it could self finance while demanding that money is sent from that there horrid London.

Nah, I don't think my Scottish heritage is why. It's more a desire to increase labour 's proportion of seats and possibility of getting votes through even if the SNP decide to be twats.

[gary1979666]

Nah, I don't think my Scottish heritage is why. It's more a desire to increase labour 's proportion of seats and possibility of getting votes through even if the SNP decide to be twats.

You haven't fallen for that Vote Labour; Get Labour propaganda, have you?!

[kaosmark2]

You haven't fallen for that Vote Labour; Get Labour propaganda, have you?!

I actually have!

How does the pattern go? Vote ukip get labour, vote labour get Snp, vote Snp get Tory, vote Tory get ukip, vote ukip get Lib Dem, vote Lib Dem get fucked?

[Comfy Bean]

Neil, I`m aware the Council Tax is currently frozen in Scotland. I think what I pay has been much the same for 5 years, maybe more. That was, in part, my point about why Jim announcing a freeze on Council Tax is at best bizarre ( maybe he`s spent to long in London and didn`t realise) and really not that progressive an idea.

I`m with NS on changing it to a fairer system ( I think it`s fair to assume that by " fairer " she means those with the big bucks paying more ).

I`m glad we can all agree that the SNP have got something right. Had to happen eventually

Do we all ( well maybe not Gary ) also agree that a Labour / SNP government would be preferable to a Labour / Tory " grand coalition " ? IF !!! these were the only 2 options on the table. I of course agree that Ed must continue to fight for an outright win but this doesn`t look likely.

Is it possible that Jimbo talking up how the mansion tax money will be spent in Scotland may lead to Labour voters switching to Tory ? I don`t think it will but it seems to be a similar logic to how some people think people will now favour the Tories over Labour because people in Scotland look to be changing how they vote.

I still maintain that Labour should have been so far ahead in England during after the past few years that how the folks in Scotland vote would be totally irrelevant to the result ( back to the maths again ). In my eyes, Labour need to look at themselves and not try and blame the SNP. Very few people will be fooled by this in my opinion.

[kaosmark2]

In my eyes, Labour need to look at themselves and not try and blame the SNP. Very few people will be fooled by this in my opinion.

Labour look on course to win most marginals in England. That would normally be enough to gain a majority.

I'm actually hoping that Snp dominance isn't as large as predicted and a Clegg-less libs could support labour.

[eFestivals]

I`m with NS on changing it to a fairer system ( I think it`s fair to assume that by " fairer " she means those with the big bucks paying more ).

isn't it a shame that Nicola isn't with Nicola on changing it to a fairer system?

It's in her power, and she's done fuck all.

It was in Salmond's power and he did fuck up.

Let's big up the fuck-all-progressives for a brighter future!

[eFestivals]

Labour look on course to win most marginals in England. That would normally be enough to gain a majority.

Yep, but the Scotch mist Scottish myth says that the tories will only win this time because of how England votes.

Which is utter bollocks. It's a UK election and the result depends how the UK votes. There is nothing called Scotland in a UK election.

(Those Scots look like causing extra tory seats in Scotland too - but it's fuck all to do with Scotland if that happens, right? :rolleyes)

Edited April 27, 2015 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

Which is utter bollocks. It's a UK election and the result depends how the UK votes. There is nothing called Scotland in a UK election.

I am happy that the "government Scotland votes for " line hasn't been trotted out lately.