The Dirty Independence Question

[Comfy Bean]

Labour look on course to win most marginals in England. That would normally be enough to gain a majority.

I'm actually hoping that Snp dominance isn't as large as predicted and a Clegg-less libs could support labour.

This is a fair point mark. Could well happen and I would be amazed if the SNP go from 6 to 50. Don`t see it being that high myself. If this normal late swing to the sitting Govt happens it could be to close to call.

Do you not think though that if push comes to shove the Libs would side with the Tories again ? I`ve attached a link to a horrible thought that could see Danny boy make a very swift return - IF.... he loses out to the SNP. As I`ve said I would rather see a Labour / SNP govt going forward surely that is favourable to the " grand coalition " ?

Going by some views on here we could be in " anyone but the SNP " territory which I obviously don`t agree with.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-lib-dem-plan-for-danny-alexander-to-keep-cabinet-post-if-they-forge-another-coalition-with-tories-10187353.html

[Comfy Bean]

Yep, but the Scotch mist Scottish myth says that the tories will only win this time because of how England votes.

Which is utter bollocks. It's a UK election and the result depends how the UK votes. There is nothing called Scotland in a UK election.

(Those Scots look like causing extra tory seats in Scotland too - but it's fuck all to do with Scotland if that happens, right? :rolleyes)

It may just be me......but did anyone spot one or two contradictions here

[kaosmark2]

This is a fair point mark. Could well happen and I would be amazed if the SNP go from 6 to 50. Don`t see it being that high myself. If this normal late swing to the sitting Govt happens it could be to close to call.

Do you not think though that if push comes to shove the Libs would side with the Tories again ? I`ve attached a link to a horrible thought that could see Danny boy make a very swift return - IF.... he loses out to the SNP. As I`ve said I would rather see a Labour / SNP govt going forward surely that is favourable to the " grand coalition " ?

Going by some views on here we could be in " anyone but the SNP " territory which I obviously don`t agree with.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-lib-dem-plan-for-danny-alexander-to-keep-cabinet-post-if-they-forge-another-coalition-with-tories-10187353.html

I think that most Lib dems would prefer to distance themselves from the tories. Clegg, Alexander and a few others probably would prefer to support the tories again though.

[eFestivals]

It may just be me......but did anyone spot one or two contradictions here

There's contradictions. There's very deliberately contradictions.

Because those contradictions are another side of the argument that Nats present, which is riddled with contradictions.

But hey, I guess I shouldn't be subtle when you often can't even grasp what your own glorious perfect leader is up to.

I saw a hypothetical version of how things might play out post-election the other day. I can't remember what the details of that scenario where now, tho it was pro-SNP. It finished with the line ".. and Salmond would have played things perfectly". Which I can agree with. The tories got it wrong, it's not Ed that's dangling on Salmond's strings.

[LJS]

isn't it a shame that Nicola isn't with Nicola on changing it to a fairer system?

It's in her power, and she's done fuck all.

It was in Salmond's power and he did fuck up.

Let's big up the fuck-all-progressives for a brighter future!

They couldn't get it through in their first term because minority governments don't get to impliment all their policies. In their second term, with a referendum to fight, they were never going to do anything that might be in any way controversial. You may add this to your list of things I've criticised them for. Edited April 27, 2015 by LJS

[LJS]

Labour look on course to win most marginals in England. That would normally be enough to gain a majority.

I'm actually hoping that Snp dominance isn't as large as predicted and a Clegg-less libs could support labour.

Hate to disappoint you...

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/318597-tns-poll-snp-set-to-take-54-of-scots-votes-in-general-election/

[eFestivals]

In their second term, with a referendum to fight, they were never going to do anything that might be in any way controversial. You may add this to your list of things I've criticised them for.

Are you also realising that *everything* is at risk of being abandoned in their pursuit of indie?

This is the problem. They don't pursue good policies, they pursue indie.

[eFestivals]

Hate to disappoint you...

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/318597-tns-poll-snp-set-to-take-54-of-scots-votes-in-general-election/

It's a poll. We know what the polls say and we know what the Nats claims of the polls. So perhaps wait until election day before proclaiming victory?

I'm betting the SNP vote is 45%. What about you?

Funnily enough, no one will consider 45% for the SNP as any kind of victory for the SNP.

They'll consider it things made clear, at least down here.

Edited April 27, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Funnily enough, no one will consider 45% for the SNP as any kind of victory for the SNP.

They'll consider it things made clear, at least down here.

Just in case you're not getting this.....

It won't be regarded as particularly meaningful votes for representation in Westminster, it'll be regarded as sour losers getting revenge, another vote for succession.

And they won't be far wrong either.

[kaosmark2]

Hate to disappoint you...

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/318597-tns-poll-snp-set-to-take-54-of-scots-votes-in-general-election/

As Neil said, it's a poll.

Also, did you actually have a point?

[LJS]

As Neil said, it's a poll.

Also, did you actually have a point?

Just sharing information.

[LJS]

It's a poll. We know what the polls say and we know what the Nats claims of the polls. So perhaps wait until election day before proclaiming victory?

I'm betting the SNP vote is 45%. What about you?

Funnily enough, no one will consider 45% for the SNP as any kind of victory for the SNP.

They'll consider it things made clear, at least down here.

Yup, it's just a poll & I don't usually post them because, well, they're just polls.

However, I thought a poll showing a 34% SNP lead over Labour was interesting.

These are the guys who have high don't knows so I'm certainly not suggesting that 54% is likely figure on May 7th. Also, the old are still failing to fall under Nicola's spell (the wisdom of age or dementia? :-)) & they tend to vote in numbers although, I guess they may weight the results to take account of this.

However most polls seem to suggest Snp voters are least likely to change their mind, so I'm going for higher than your 45% ...I say 49% & 50 seats!

[kaosmark2]

However most polls seem to suggest Snp voters are least likely to change their mind, so I'm going for higher than your 45% ...I say 49% & 50 seats!

49% of the vote and 85% of seats. Fuck democracy.

[LJS]

49% of the vote and 85% of seats. Fuck democracy.

I agree, it shouldn't happen.

[Comfy Bean]

Interesting article with the Union guy in the Guardian. Was going to post in the GE thread but we have had this fella in here a few times before. He is complimentary about Ed and NS, not so much Jimbo. He is supporting Labour in Scotland but says they will re-examine after the election. The possibility of Unions coming in behind the SNP has been discussed in this thread before. My guess would be that for their continued support Murphy may make way, assuming he hangs on to his seat. McCluskey has always been on board with Ed and after for his contributions must have some influence. McCluskey also thinks Ed will work with NS and seems to have no problem with it

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/len-mccluskey-says-prime-minister-ed-miliband-would-work-with-snp

[Comfy Bean]

However most polls seem to suggest Snp voters are least likely to change their mind, so I'm going for higher than your 45% ...I say 49% & 50 seats!

50 seats !!! I don`t see it mate but the latest poll backs up what your saying so you never know. Certainly looks like the massive majorities that have been in place for decades are going to be wiped out. Reporting Scotland were in Douglas Alexanders seat earlier. He is confident ( he is quite right to say that and he has a whopping 16000 majority ). The SNP have a 20year old lass up against him. If he goes, the head of their campaign I think, then anything can happen. Was no surprise that they picked that seat to wheel out Brown ( again ) at the weekend.

[LJS]

50 seats !!! I don`t see it mate but the latest poll backs up what your saying so you never know. Certainly looks like the massive majorities that have been in place for decades are going to be wiped out. Reporting Scotland were in Douglas Alexanders seat earlier. He is confident ( he is quite right to say that and he has a whopping 16000 majority ). The SNP have a 20year old lass up against him. If he goes, the head of their campaign I think, then anything can happen. Was no surprise that they picked that seat to wheel out Brown ( again ) at the weekend.

I've been expecting the polls to go down for weeks they keep going up.

So, money where your mouth is comfy. SNP % & no of seats. Everyone else free to join in.

[Comfy Bean]

Yeah I thought they would be polling in the high 30 seats by now as it seemed to be widely accepted that 30 and a win was the target. That was a while ago and I guess they would be disappointed by 30 now. I had expected loads of labour voters to be concerned about the prospect of 5 more tory years but the way snp have played the "lock dave out " has shored up people's concern I think . Labour up here were left clinging to vote snp get Tory and have never really had much else to say. I think majorities will be wiped out across Scotland but labour will hang on to double figures. we know the pensioners will be out to vote in high numbers and there will no doubt be some headlines to come about how the SNP will use the state pension to fund another referendum campaign etc. Would be happy with 10 seats less than you are going for. Hope you prove me wrong though. When's the deadline for a prediction? I'll do it properly before then :-)

[kaosmark2]

SNP to get ~35 seats. I hope it's fewer because Salmond is a c**t and I don't like the independence principle, but it'd be naive to suggest that they won't get a large share.

Lib Dems are very arrogant about their majorities. I don't think they quite accept how unpopular they are. It's the same down here, Stephen Williams is lying shitebag waste of space but he's not even bothering to campaign properly in most areas as he's so confident in his majority (based on interviews). Clegg's making a bit of an effort in Sheffield, but I'm fairly hopeful of most inner-city Lib Dems going, while I'm hoping that most rural ones stay (because the alternative in rural constituencies is Tory/UKIP/SNP).

[LJS]

SNP to get ~35 seats. I hope it's fewer because Salmond is a c**t and I don't like the independence principle, but it'd be naive to suggest that they won't get a large share.

Lib Dems are very arrogant about their majorities. I don't think they quite accept how unpopular they are. It's the same down here, Stephen Williams is lying shitebag waste of space but he's not even bothering to campaign properly in most areas as he's so confident in his majority (based on interviews). Clegg's making a bit of an effort in Sheffield, but I'm fairly hopeful of most inner-city Lib Dems going, while I'm hoping that most rural ones stay (because the alternative in rural constituencies is Tory/UKIP/SNP).

Yeah, I was pretty astonished when I read this.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/lib-dems-ramp-up-scottish-campaign-after-polling-data-boost

I don't personally revile the lib dems as much as many do. But then I didn't vote for them last time to keep the Tories out as many did. They seem to be in denial.

[Stash]

... Happy to leave aside the various things he`s promising on the back of it as no-one knows for sure whether he is telling the truth on the numbers...

Isn't that the whole basis of your support for the SNP?

[LJS]

Isn't that the whole basis of your support for the SNP?

I'm not Comfy's spokesman But his support for Indy is clearly not based on that. (" no-one knows for sure whether he is telling the truth on the numbers")

Edited April 27, 2015 by LJS

[eFestivals]

It passed me by at the time she said it, but I've just come to know ....

Ms Sturgeon said: "We need strong controls on immigration, of course we do"

You snippers slammed Miliband and Labour for saying the same thing.

Sturgeon gets a free pass.

And you wonder why people think the SNP and their supporters are ridiculous.

Edited April 28, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I see that Sturgeon has found a solution to Scotland's high public spending.

Sack Scottish people, and import immigrants to do the same work at half the price - while illegally abusing the immigration system rules to get these immigrants into the country to steal those jobs.

Go Nicola!

Isn't it great to have a honest politician who says what she thinks and does what she says?

[eFestivals]

50 seats !!! I don`t see it mate but the latest poll backs up what your saying so you never know. Certainly looks like the massive majorities that have been in place for decades are going to be wiped out. Reporting Scotland were in Douglas Alexanders seat earlier. He is confident ( he is quite right to say that and he has a whopping 16000 majority ). The SNP have a 20year old lass up against him. If he goes, the head of their campaign I think, then anything can happen. Was no surprise that they picked that seat to wheel out Brown ( again ) at the weekend.

the projection I read last night (ukpollingreport, I think) had Labour with 11 seats, and the SNP with (I think it was) 43.

There's 29% of Scots undecided who they'll vote for - with the undecideds going up, not down. That part is rather interesting, because it implies that the SNP support might be about to slide.