The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

Bit of a skewed view of history from the Scots? More mines were closed under labour administrations than Tories and none of of major parties have filled themselves with glory regarding asset sales. The Tories as you say, Gordon Browns sale of the UK gold reserves or more recently Lib Dems Vince Cable with Royal Mail. I don't see any reason why the SNP would be any different.

Ahhh, that Gordon Brown myth again, from the clever people who can sell for double the market price.

[lost]

Ahhh, that Gordon Brown myth again, from the clever people who can sell for double the market price.

When Brown decided to dispose of almost 400 tonnes of gold between 1999 and 2002, he did two distinctly odd things.

First, he broke with convention and announced the sale well in advance, giving the market notice that it was shortly to be flooded and forcing down the spot price. This was apparently done in the interests of “open government”, but had the effect of sending the spot price of gold to a 20-year low, as implied by basic supply and demand theory.

Second, the Treasury elected to sell its gold via auction. Again, this broke with the standard model. The price of gold was usually determined at a morning and afternoon "fix" between representatives of big banks whose network of smaller bank clients and private orders allowed them to determine the exact price at which demand met with supply.

The auction system again frequently achieved a lower price than the equivalent fix price. The first auction saw an auction price of $10c lessper ounce than was achieved at the morning fix. It also acted to depress the price of the afternoon fix which fell by nearly $4.

[LJS]

The lying isn't a good thing, but the "why" for that is something that can't be ignored. He was right, FFS!!!

He was making that report for the UK, not for Scotland, and he saw - *CORRECTLY!!!!* - that the best interests of the UK were served by not making public the full value.

I have let this one pass because I had not read the McCrone report and assumed you would not have made this statement unless you had read it & it was true - I have just cast my eyes quickly over the report & cannot find any suggestion in it that the information therein should be repressed.

I did find this

The SNP countered these figures by claiming that North Sea oil should by

1980 be yielding a Government revenue of approximately £800m. and have

charged the Government with giving Scottish oil away to the international

companies ridiculously cheap. Up to now much of the Scottish public may

have regarded the SNP figures as pretty wild and they have been publicly

condemned as such by Ministers. But authoritative support for the charge that

the Government has failed to do a satisfactory bargain with the companies is

provided in the criticisms of the Public Accounts Committee which so far

remain unanswered. The example of Norwegian policy on Government

revenue from oil likewise shows up the failure of British.

The only recommendations I can find from McCrone are that the UK government would be wise to use the oil revenue to Scotland's benefit.

I will be happy to admit I am wrong if you can point me to the bit where he recommended keeping his report secret to prevent the Scots knowing the truth & stealing their own oil.

[eFestivals]

nice one - presenting part of the myth to repudiate the myth.

[eFestivals]

I have let this one pass because I had not read the McCrone report and assumed you would not have made this statement unless you had read it & it was true - I have just cast my eyes quickly over the report & cannot find any suggestion in it that the information therein should be repressed.

I did find this

The only recommendations I can find from McCrone are that the UK government would be wise to use the oil revenue to Scotland's benefit.

I will be happy to admit I am wrong if you can point me to the bit where he recommended keeping his report secret to prevent the Scots knowing the truth & stealing their own oil.

the part of McCrone that the independence movement currently like to bring up is the fact that the whole thing was kept secret because McCrone didn't think it wise for Scotland to know that it would be "embarrassingly rich" (something like "as rich as Switzerland").

It might not explicitly say "keep it secret to stop Scotland demanding all those riches for itself", but that's essentially what the subtext of the report is.

[Buff124]

More mines were closed under labour administrations than Tories

It is very easy to see what happened to UK coal production in the 1980s. The only comparable downward spikes are during the recession of the 1930s

See graph - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_Coal_Production.png

[eFestivals]

I did find this

Presumably that 1980 SNP estimate of the oil is no better than the 2014 SNP estimate of the oil.

Given what the oil price is today and how much that returns, and given the much lower oil price back then, and given that the oil was barely flowing in 1980, I think it's safe to say that 1980 estimate by the SNP was total bollocks... or they're also able to find buyers who'll pay over the market price.

[LJS]

This is something i've pointed out a fair few times - that it won't be any different in the Salmond Utopia of Scotland.

All you'll be doing at the end of the day is voting for a different set of politicians. And the problem is politicians, not anything else.

Thank God we'll be able to vote him out then!

& yes it'll still be politicians & no it won't be perfect.

I just happen to think, on balance, it is likely to be better

[lost]

It is very easy to see what happened to UK coal production in the 1980s. The only comparable downward spikes are during the recession of the 1930s

See graph - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_Coal_Production.png

The chart correlates with the strikes rather than the closures..Hence the point still stands.. and this is from someone body who was effectively at ground zero during the 80's miners strike. The beeb were camped out at one of my locals.

Edited May 12, 2014 by lost

[LJS]

If we take McCrone, and take into account how fucked the UK was during the 70s as the result of the oil crisis - that required the infamous "public sector pay restraint", an IMF bailout, and much bigger govt spending cuts than anything Osborne has done - rather than being a wealthy country swimming in money, it's hard to say that the UK shouldn't have used that oil money to help ride thru those problems.

And once that money starts being used to ride thru those problems, it becomes hard to withdraw that money from whatever it's being spent on, to spend it somewhere else.

Better decisions could have been made of course, but i'm far from sure there was huge scope to make vastly different decisions.

Indeed, so we could have done what Norway did, establish the idea of the fund & set the conditions for when & how much would be paid into it

Part of me thinks North Sea is the Greatest Curse ever visited on this country.

Without it Thatcher would never have lasted!!!

[LJS]

Bit of a skewed view of history from the Scots? More mines were closed under labour administrations than Tories and none of of major parties have filled themselves with glory regarding asset sales. The Tories as you say, Gordon Browns sale of the UK gold reserves or more recently Lib Dems Vince Cable with Royal Mail. I don't see any reason why the SNP would be any different.

I have no idea whether your first claim is true. What I do know is the Labour party at no time set out cynically and deliberately to destroy the NUM with the destruction of coal mining in the UK as necessary collateral damage!

& as for asset sales & glory. Well maybe they shouldn't have happened.

Edited May 12, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

It might not explicitly say "keep it secret to stop Scotland demanding all those riches for itself", but that's essentially what the subtext of the report is.

Ahh so when you said "McCrone said the Scottish couldn't be trusted to play fair if they knew the true oil value." which as far as i can tell is quite simply a lie: that was a case of the end justifying the means.

I really would prefer not to have to go away & read fairly dull reports to check if you are telling the truth or just making things up to support your argument.

time for your old friend I think

Edited May 12, 2014 by LJS

[Buff124]

Part of me thinks North Sea is the Greatest Curse ever visited on this country.

Too right. Have you ever tried swimming in it ? Off Aberdeen beach ?!?

[Buff124]

ime for your old friend I think

Cue chorus of 'Land of Hope and Glory'

[lost]

I have no idea whether your first claim is true. What I do know is the Labour party at no time set out cynically and deliberately to destroy the NUM with the destruction of coal mining in the UK as necessary collateral damage!

Well a difficult subject to address around here even now.. I went to college in the mid-90's between castleford and Wakefield and I'd say 80% were mature students / ex-miners who were on government funded HND's/HNC's in stuff like business, IT, accounting, talked a lot and in contact with a few still now. I got a different impression to the media narrative though I guess the ones that moved onto decent careers are obviously quite happy now with desk jobs and not dropping dead from emphysema in their 60's, others who ended up shunted onto incapacity benefits for the last decade obviously tell a different story.

[LJS]

Well a difficult subject to address around here even now.. I went to college in the mid-90's between castleford and Wakefield and I'd say 80% were mature students / ex-miners who were on government funded HND's/HNC's in stuff like business, IT, accounting, talked a lot and in contact with a few still now. I got a different impression to the media narrative though I guess the ones that moved onto decent careers are obviously quite happy now with desk jobs and not dropping dead from emphysema in their 60's, others who ended up shunted onto incapacity benefits for the last decade obviously tell a different story.

Well, If the Thatcher government had said "mining is a dirty job that fucks your lungs & has a chance of getting you killed in a pit accident," so therefore we will use the money we are getting from the north sea oil to set up a planned & phased closure of the mines. We will compensate miners fairly for the loss of their jobs and ensure there are real opportunities for them all to get meaningful replacement jobs...

... unfortunately that was always going to be tough to deliver when your economic policies have thrown 3,000,000 on the dole!

[Buff124]

I went to college in the mid-90's between castleford and Wakefield and I'd say 80% were mature students / ex-miners who were on government funded HND's/HNC's in stuff like business, IT, accounting

..... others who ended up shunted onto incapacity benefits for the last decade obviously tell a different story.

Same up here but with ex-steelworkers from Ravenscraig and Gartcosh, welders from the shipyards, and electricians from the British Rail engineering works.

[Buff124]

Well a difficult subject to address around here even now.. I went to college in the mid-90's between castleford and Wakefield

I'd like to take a moment just to say

Wakefield !! Bill Nelson !!!

Wakefield, you rock

EDIT: you just know i'm gonna go even more o/t here

Edited May 12, 2014 by Buff124

[LJS]

never knew Bill Nelson still existed - just a name from Be Bop deluxe for me

Just Saying

[Buff124]

The tune is called 'For Stuart' , written for the late Stuart Adamson of the Skids and Big Country. Bill Nelson was a major influence, and produced at least one Skids LP. I first heard him play it at a benefit gig for Stuart's family, at the Barrowlands.

[LJS]

The tune is called 'For Stuart' , written for the late Stuart Adamson of the Skids and Big Country. Bill Nelson was a major influence, and produced at least one Skids LP. I first heard him play it at a benefit gig for Stuart's family, at the Barrowlands.

Didn't know the Skids connection.

Skids were great

[LJS]

since we have moved (musically) to the Kingdom of Fife, where I now live in exile.

Here is my musical contribution for tonight from one of Fife's finest bands.

This is for Philip Hammond

"Tomorrow’s threats won’t just be encountered on land, at sea or in the air.

They’ll come from space..."

[Comfy Bean]

Thank God we'll be able to vote him out then!

& yes it'll still be politicians & no it won't be perfect.

I just happen to think, on balance, it is likely to be better

Just returned from hearing Patrick Harvie, Jim Sillars and a few others debate Independence in our local hall ( packed ). Very passionate and interesting evening. Patrick Harvie opened with a 20min speech and did not mention " oil " once. Jim Sillars stated that we was a member of the SNP BUT hoped that a Yes vote would allow him to vote for a scottish labour party at the next election.

Patrick Harvie spoke well and at length about how he would campaign against a cut in corporation tax. He highlighted the steady decline in this tax over the past 30 years and reckons that if you drew a graph of how it`s declined over that period you would not think we had ever had a change in Government. The amazon tax fiasco was highlighted and his view is that all countries should work closely TOGETHER to tackle how the rich folks and companies reduce their tax " burden " and not compete against each other. Fair point I thought.

He also believes that it is not about blaming others but about taking responsibility with hope and " even a little fear ". A good blether about the voting age being 16. General consensus was that it has been a good thing with msp`s from both sides taking part in debates in schools across scotland with the weans and saying that they have been in schools and with young groups etc more this year than in the previous 10. Again Patrick Harvie spoke about getting the message across to the younger generation that we want to " trust " them with our future.

Jim Sillars did mention oil and a lot of the Norway type stuff from on here was discussed. He reckons there IS oil and gas off the west coast of Scotland and that it has been widely known for over a decade. He suggests that nuke subs may have something to do with the lack of exploration off our coast

Jim Sillars had some stat about us being the only country to discover oil and end up poorer but I missed it. He reckons that over the next decade there will be £10Billion worth of work in decommissioning old riggs and mentioned jobs in industry, science etc that will be created. Our Green friend sees opportunity for jobs in building energy efficient homes to house over a million people on scotlands housing lists. Jim Sillars finished things off by stating that he believes a Yes vote will see us end up with a government that will represent scotlands working class. Without need to pander to " middle england " he fails to see how " we " could be worse off. He mentioned some figures " cuts " that he says Osbourne and Balls are on record as saying will come in 2015 after the next general election but at no point mentioned Jam.

[Comfy Bean]

Some interesting / sad points made here which balance all the facts about how Scotland is rolling in cash that have been posted on here. Top 10 this and that greed blah blah bah. We already know that the bedroom tax is gone and a Yes vote will put an end to welfare cuts reform.

Should Scotland be an independent country ?

Edited May 12, 2014 by comfortablynumb1910

[LJS]

sounds quite civilised & reasonable.

Astonishingly.

I take the fatalities were kept in single figures then?