The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

The reality is there is no precedent for a devolved part of an EU Member State becoming

independent and having to determine its membership of the EU as a separate entity. So there will be a need for a treaty agreed by all member states anyway.

Not at all. The current members could simply say "we'll stick to the current rules" and iScotland would have to use those.

Only if the current members wish to facilitate iScotland's EU membership by a different entry method is a new treaty required - tho that new treaty would require unanimous member agreement (and referendums for some members, depending on their internal laws).

There are three choices....

• Continuation and secession
• Separation
• Dissolution

Nope, option 1 is not an option. An extra member state means lesser power for the existing members, so there is no "continuation" option available. When a new member joins, everything about the place and power of the existing members change.

It should be said that in the event of option 3 The UK could be finding itself as much as iScotland looking for re-election.

Just like option 1, option 3 is not within the possibles.

The commonly accepted idea is that this will be solved politically by the member states.

yep, this is the most likely, tho every necessary step having happened by Match 2016 is completely unrealistic, given the need for referendums after agreement has been reached (and each member states domestic political cycle).

Its going to involve a treaty to deal with this very issue if it actually happens as the UK and Scotland would be both members and not members once they break. Limbo!

Oh look, Barry doesn't have the first idea what he's talking about. Again.

The most idiotic cybernat would run rings of truth around you Barry.

The UK's EU membership is unaffected by what Scotland might do. In international law, it is the continuing state and keeps everything it currently has.

The first treaty will be on what to do with the UK and Scotland's current member status.

PMSL

The second treaty (and possibly they may choose not to do it or may not be needed depending on the first) is if exemptions for the UK and Scotland in their new forms are acceptable.

PMSL

Basically agreeing to everything that is already agreed.

Utter bullshit.

That is all pretty much fact.

you never do facts Barry.

[eFestivals]

In my opinion common sense will win the day.

except with your own opinions.

The *ONLY* thing which will win the day for iScotland is the other member states agreeing to amend the treaties for Scotland's benefit.

If just one of those members says "we'll stick to what we have" (that'll be Spain) or "we don't wish our power as a member to be diluted further" (which could be any of them, particularly as there's essentially agreement of no new members for a decade or more) then iScotland is fucked.

There are not only Scotland's interests at play, there are the interests of each EU member state.

The EU will want the UK and Scotland in the club for many reasons and it will happen.

Really? That's an exceedingly confident statement that Spain will vote for it's own break-up.

The UK and Scotland will agree a CTA just like we have with Ireland and very little will change.

If that's the case the white Paper is a lie, and if that's not the case ... erm ... the white paper is a lie.

And the EU will agree to all the current exemptions the UK enjoys.

it probably will for much of it, but not all.

For example, it's VERY unlikely that iScotland will receive the same proportional level of rebate as the UK.

In fact, it's most likely that it'll get none at all - firstly because iScotland is saying that it's been more prosperous than the UK for 30 years, and secondly because it says it's more prosperous for the next 30 too.

The EU will have constant treaties. It will constantly change. NOTHING is fixed in stone.

absolutely right - but any new treaties will have new rules that apply to anyone.

Will Spain vote for easy accession for breakaway regions of existing members? It's hard to see how they will.

[eFestivals]

Your talking bollocks... The UK and Ireland have different immigration policies while still having the CTA. Its a cake currently enjoyed by all. Why would it need to change ?

because Scotland are changing things.

[eFestivals]

All from the house of commons library... All interesting stuff .... All comes down to the Lisbon Treaty not being this cast iron rock you make it out to be Neil.

Greenland's modified status is a modified status for Greenland.

Care to point out even one similarity with iScotland? .... Next up you'll mention East Germany.

And every time you'll ignore hugely changed treaties, every relevant fact, while believing that non-similarities are ide4ntical.

You are Alex Salmond and I claim my five pounds.

[eFestivals]

EU law is part of Scots law

And?

Scotland's application of its own laws is its business, but that doesn't mean it can force other sovereign states to act on them.

If Westminster passes a law that says the French in France can't eat snails, it's an invalid law.

"EU law is part of Scots law" is the most ridiculous and inapplicable thing that anyone could raise.

[eFestivals]

All comes down to the Lisbon Treaty not being this cast iron rock you make it out to be Neil.

I'll point out to Mr Half-Amoeba that I've said in every instance that the Lisbon Treaty applies rock-solid - unless there's a new treaty.

And for Alex and his friends I'll point out that it took Greenland 3 years to stay in the same place when the EEC was far less complicated and when there were just nine members to please.

[eFestivals]

More waffle from Neil...

So out or all that hot air you just spouted we agree its down to the EU members to take a decision on the future of iScotland and quite possibly rUK and the Lisbon Treaty has fuck all to do with it despite you constantly referring to it as some sort of block when it quite clearly isn't....

Glad we cleared up your bullshit...

Until there's another treaty, *ONLY* the Lisbon Treaty applies.

I've said consistently there'll be an attempt at another treaty to include iScotland.

Got that, dead-brain?

Now, how quickly does the EU do treaties, dead-brain?

Perhaps you might want to take a look at how long it took the far-less complicated EEC and Greenland to do their deal?

Perhaps you might also care to note that Greenland always has remained a region of a member state, and didn't put itself outside of the EEC in the same way that iScotland will put itself outside of the EU.

The moment Scotland declares independence, unless it has alternative EU arrangements in place it finds itself outside of the EU, and any problems iScotland might have with its laws are its problem and not the EU's.

Edited May 19, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Its not me Neil... Its House of Commons Library submitted summary of the situation...

all that actually says is "if there's a situation, that situation is addressed". It doesn't say "all outcomes from addressing the issue will be in iScotland's favour".

In the public domain (perhaps it's different in private, who knows), there's no member state saying it'll cause Scotland difficulties in gaining it's own membership. But neither are any saying "we'll be happy to fast track their membership thru a new membership criteria".

So the only entry method open to an iScotland at the mo is the Lisbon Treaty rules.

If EU members do agree to create a new method of membership to the benefit of iScotland, that's *VERY* unlikely to happen within the 18 month timescale iScotland says is unalterable for its independence.

So Scotland will be outside the EU.

Facts tell you what the situation is. Opinions only tell you what people would like the facts to be.

[eFestivals]

You do understand that the Lisbon Treaty was just another treaty to go along with all the other treaties.... So no, there isn't only the Lisbon Treaty... Lisbon was absorbed into all the other ones and now makes up the EU rule book...

PMSL - you can't even do a short sentence that makes sense or states the facts.

The Lisbon Treaty is NOT "just another treaty to go along with all the other treaties". The Lisbon Treaty is a treaty that replaces all of those previous treaties.

There is only the Lisbon Treaty.

The Lisbon Treaty is the rule book.

The Lisbon Treaty says that Scotland *cannot* be a member on independence day.

[russycarps]

oh look, barry is making a tit of himself again

[LJS]

Since the Lisbon Treaty, there is just one set of entry rules and those entry rules categorically state "no exceptions".

So yes, as things stand, if iScotland joins the EU, it *HAS TO* join Schengen (and the Euro - tho it doesn't qualify to join the Euro, so can't actually join the EU).

That is the irrefutable facts of the matter as they stand at this moment.

The only way that can change is via a change of the EU treaties.

Changes to EU treaties requires referendum to take place in many of the countries (including the UK). For iScotland to join the EU would require each of those to be won, and for each member govt to agree to all the treaty changes.

Salmond likes to pretend that there's an option via the EU courts, but there's not. That Court would have to rule the existing treaties null & void - which means the Court making the ruling has no juristiction.

The EU is "pooled sovereignty", tho by agreement (rather than literally pooled sovereignty). The dilution of that sovereignty via an extra member requires the agreement of the sovereign countries whose sovereignty is being diluted.

You need to get your head out your treaties & join the real world.

[eFestivals]

That is not true... Its a massive debate point!

It's true, and it's not any debating point.

The only members of the EU are its signatory member states. iScotland is not a signatory member state.

That means that iScotland is not an EU member.

That means it doesn't have to be "expelled" or anything. It never was a member to be expelled.

There is no precedent for a devolved part of an EU Member State becoming independent and having to determine its membership of the EU as a separate entity

true, but there are explicit rules about who is a member state, and iScotland is not a member state.

Those parts cannot be ignored just because there's nothing written in the rules to cover some aspects of iScotland's position.

More importantly there is no treaty saying what should happen.

Utter bullshit.

There's a treaty that makes 100% clear that Scotland is not an EU member.

There's a treaty that makes 100% clear what the procedure is to become a member.

Any opinion that puts those certain facts aside isn't an opinion worth listening to.

So Scotland as it stands would remain part of the EU.

PMSL - no it wouldn't.

There is not one single thing which says that can happen.

For a start, Scotland is not an EU member that can "remain" an EU member.

Scotland can only be a NEW member of the EU.

For Scotland to become that new member, it firstly has to be a sovereign state (because the EU is an organisation of sovereign states).

Then it has to become that new member via the entry criteria that are set by the existing member states - which currently is the Lisbon Treaty rules and nothing else.

You can only leave by volunteering your exit and I don't think Scotland are saying they will do that.

Wrong way around mr brain-dead.

Scotland is not a member, therefore they cannot exit. They are outside, not in.

There is (as things stand) no EU law or international law that can change a jot of that, because there is no ruling body to over-rule the sovereignty of sovereign states*.

(* diluting member's sovereignty via the admittance of a new member without the existing member's agreement is not anything any court would rule).

[eFestivals]

Does leaving the UK mean Scotland has left the EU...

yes it does - until you're able to show me an EU membership list which lists a sovereign Scotland as a member.

Only sovereign states can be members of the EU. Scotland is not a sovereign state and therefore cannot be a member.

There is no court which will rule differently to that.

Technically by the very rule book you keep pointing to Scotland would currently remain part of the EU as would the UK.

That rule book has its signatories. Scotland is not one of them. Edited May 19, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Article 48 is the one they will use if they have to... And the UK will back it quite heavily....

I would even suggest it might result in no treaty changes and less problems for other member states having to offer referendums etc...

Not a chance in hell.

That would dilute the sovereignty of other member states, which is not something any one of them has agreed to do, nor anything any court would force on them.

They have explicitly agreed to NOT do that.

[eFestivals]

Ok gone on then... Which article says that ? Quote it for me...

Read who are current members, and the entry rules.

Scotland is not a member of the EU currently.

There is just one method of becoming a member, as detailed in the Lisbon Treaty.

That means - with everything as it is right now - that, legally, iScotland cannot be a member on independence day.

Unless the rule of law is no more?

[eFestivals]

You need to get your head out your treaties & join the real world.

Ahhh, so iScotland is not going to have the rule of law?

Treaties are law.

Your "real world" is make something up cos it sounds good but is bollocks.

Edited May 19, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

oh ffs... SO wrong...

Lisbon was just another amendment along the way... There was large amount of EU law Lisbon didn't touch. It didn't totally rewrite the rule book.

You fail to understand the EU... Not surprised...

http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/decision-making/treaties/index_en.htm

I fail to understand the EU, do I?

From what you've linked to, the very first words say...

The European Union is based on the rule of law. This means that every action taken by the EU is founded on treaties that have been approved voluntarily and democratically by all EU member countries.

The treaties are law. Changing "the law" requires new treaties.

There is only one method of membership*. As Scotland is not a member, it has to follow that method of membership if it wants to be a member.

(* until it changes, if it does).

[eFestivals]

Scotland is a member of the EU via its membership of the UK. Are you being intentionally stupid ?

I leave the intentionally stupid stuff to you, you do it so well.

Click on this link for a list of EU member states:-

http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/index_en.htm

Is Scotland's name there? No. So it's not a member.

Edited May 19, 2014 by eFestivals

[russycarps]

Scotland is a member of the EU via its membership of the UK. Are you being intentionally stupid ?

Its clear to everyone, except for the most entrenched in the No Campaign, that Scotland is a member of the fucking EU. How none of the RULES say Scotland will stop being a member. It was a signatory as part of the UK as England and Wales was. If you want to make an argument for Scotland leaving the EU because it left the UK, it is no less of an argument to suggest by Scotland leaving the "UK" this effectively ends England's and Wales membership as well as the body which was the UK under signing is no longer in existence. Specially when you factor in the rebate and how that will have to change.

Article 48 is an option... This will be resolved in the least possibly painful way. It might need a treaty etc. But Scotland will be in the EU.

When the dust settles I think the Scottish people can count on being members of the EU. And that is the point. Yeah there has be legal and political issues sorted but if a wealthy country like Scotland want in then the EU is going to make that happen. And they will have to give Scotland some of what it wants / already has.

oh God, it's like looking at a car crash

[eFestivals]

Article 48 is an option...

No it's not, that would be "illegal".

There is no mechanism for member entry outside of the entry criteria in the EU treaty.

Even the SNP's own favoured "experts" don't believe Scotland will gain entry without treaty changes.

Edited May 19, 2014 by eFestivals

[Resolution Trane]

Whatever will be will be.

[eFestivals]

When the dust settles I think the Scottish people can count on being members of the EU.

there's few people who disagree with that. The argument is about when exactly "the dust settles".

If it's via the Lisbon Treaty rules, it'll won't be before 2018 at the very earliest.

If it's via new rules in a new treaty, then that process is exceedingly unlikely to be completed by March 2016.

So iScotland would be outside of the EU.

[eFestivals]

Whatever will be will be.

Yup. Perhaps get Alex to admit that?

[eFestivals]

This seems to be your new tactic... When the grown ups are talking, make childish one liners Now off back to your shelf stacking before your supervisor gets pissed at you

And your tactic? Making up "facts" like Scotland being a member of the EU.

If Scotland votes itself out of the UK, it is also choosing to vote itself out of the EU. That's a fact that even the SNP recognise as a fact.

The issue is about how it gets itself into the EU as a sovereign state. Few people think it won't get in.

The uncertainty is about how it might get in, how long that might take, and what might happen if there's a gap when its not a member.

Even that gap has uncertainty. The ideal solution would be for iScotland to be a defacto member while waiting to officially become a member, but that only works if every current member has expressed a firm opinion in favour of iScotland becoming a member - something that might be likely, but isn't certain given the separatist movements in a number of different EU states.

[LJS]

Despite continuing outrage from voters in Scotland that a poll paid for by the Cabinet Office Devolution Team has been buried, Westminster today again refused to reveal the poll's findings, leaving many to speculate that it shows support for the Union plummeting into a rancid, rat-infected abyss.

The poll by Ipsos Mori and paid for with money personally wrenched from the hands of starving Scottish children by millionaire, Eton-educated cabinet ministers, has begun to trend worldwide on social media, as the planet is gripped by the Scottish independence question.

As a sop to voters, analysts and crazy people on the internet, the Cabinet Office this morning released a poll of what people thought the Buried Poll is about.

51% think it shows the Yes vote soaring to at least 15 points higher than No

17% think it shows that Scottish people consider David Cameron to be a dick

16% believe there is no poll and that someone, somewhere is just making shit up

15% believe the poll shows Westminster is preparing the case that iScotland will need to be known as the Former United Caledonian Kingdom (FUCK) Scotland

1% think the Cabinet Office are refusing to release the poll out of modesty as it shows the Yes vote flatlining

Political analysts, such as Dr Shackleton, believe that the #PublishThePoll fiasco is causing nothing but damage for Better Together.

'It's been a total train wreck of a week for them. First we learn that Alistair Darling hasn't just been dropped from the Better Together team, but that he's been banished from the land and lent out on loan to the Government of Ukraine, and now this.