The Dirty Independence Question

[kaosmark2]

There is always hope.

Here's another wee under the radar thing, a report called Democracy Max: The Sovereignty of the People, produced by the Electoral Reform Society.

A deliberation by prominent national figures, none of whom are prominent within the political party that Neil seems to hate more than any other.

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/erss_roundtable1_a5_web(1).pdf

I get a "page not found"

[eFestivals]

that is your opinion which you are entitled to.

My opinion is that "There's nothing at all to indicate any different political outcomes, not a jot of anything" in the UK

So I have chosen to place my hope elsewhere.

Mis-placed, as I've said. Politics in Scotland is broadly the same as anywhere else in the UK, as opinion polls constantly prove.

For instance, people in Scotland want to leave the EU at about the same rate.

For instance, Salmond is as right wing on high finance matters as the tories.

Etc, etc, etc.

It won't be the socialist utopia you hope for. Salmond is very deliberately playing this so that the potential iScotland is all things to all people, so that they vote yes.

Too late you'll find out that he's just another politician, playing the electorate for HIS advantage and not yours. Via divide and rule, people like Salmond grab power - and it's power for himself that he wants, not power for you.

Edited May 22, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

There is always hope.

there is, but baseless hope ends up the same as no hope.

Here's another wee under the radar thing, a report called Democracy Max: The Sovereignty of the People, produced by the Electoral Reform Society.

A deliberation by prominent national figures, none of whom are prominent within the political party that Neil seems to hate more than any other.

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/erss_roundtable1_a5_web(1).pdf

PMSL.

Blinded by your own prejudices.

And that's the problem. It's the blind leading the blind.

Edited May 22, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I tend to think that Scottish civic society has already discounted the idea that a Yes vote is a total rejection of all aspects of the Union as being an over simplification of the political reality following a hypothetical (caveats!) Yes vote. .

and yet rejecting the union is rejecting the union.

Anything of it you might wish to keep will have to be agreed to - and yes-ers have mugged themselves by believing that they get to keep all of the things which are beneficial to Scotland while losing the things they consider not beneficial.

The white paper states "we keep all the good stuff and lose all the bad". It's a lie.

In much the same way, a No vote has been publicly discounted by the UK PM, Deputy PM, and other UK Govt Ministers as being a total acceptance of the status quo.

Oh, you've found another set of words from Westminster that you'll conveniently accept as 100% true, despite them being all liars if they say something you disagree with?

The polarised, excluded middle strategy will not last the course of the full 16 week Referendum campaign that officially begins on 29 May.

that may be true, but if the ground shifts on one side, it shifts on the other too. It doesn't necessarily only shift in the favour of indy - as the most recent polls have shown.

Personally, I think it's pretty clear already that yes isn't going to win unless something hugely unexpected crops up to massively change perspectives. Everything that might be said that might change minds has already been said, and while the gap narrowed at times it hasn't got close to victory.

Yes-ers seem to be clinging to the hope of a poor turnout to do it for them - which is as ridiculous as it gets for a campaign that declares itself as bringing better democracy.

Winning by the default of others not giving a shit either way is not any endorsement for indy, and is not a good basis for the establishment of a new nation. That needs a huge majority behind the idea for it to work well.

Edited May 22, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I've just been having a dig around on the other polls (aside from the main indy question) at http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls

(I've only looked at the ones that have questions I find interesting)

Some of them I'm finding quite surprising. For instance:-

- around 50% of scots think Scotland will be worse off if indy.

- three to one youngsters are against indy (I knew they were against, tho not by so much).

And some I'm finding highly HIGHLY hilarious!!!

"If Scotland becomes independent, would you want to keep your British citizenship?"

- over 75% want to keep it (thus showing no faith in an iScotland, and wanting the option to run away from their own decision).

In regard to that youngsters question, perhaps it really is now or never for an independent Scotland - but with those kids being the ones who have to live with the decision for the longest time, perhaps they're the smart ones.

I've seen many people say "I'll be voting yes for the benefit of my children", but when those children have a different view, how is it for their benefit? It's the same-old of old gits wanting to impose their view on their kids.

Edited May 22, 2014 by eFestivals

[LJS]

All my 3 children are passionately yes. Only 2 can vote . The 3rd misses out by 3 months. My yes vote is for him as much as anything.

[russycarps]

What do you lot think the voter turnout for this will be?

I was reading if under 70% bother to vote yes is likely to win, if over 75% vote no will win.

There was no mention of what might happen if say 72% turned out which made me think it was a load of bollocks.

My best guess would be 65%.

[eFestivals]

What do you lot think the voter turnout for this will be?

I was reading if under 70% bother to vote yes is likely to win, if over 75% vote no will win.

There was no mention of what might happen if say 72% turned out which made me think it was a load of bollocks.

My best guess would be 65%.

It's hard to gauge.

Despite the joy at devolution, it's pretty clear that Scotland isn't much interested in their own govt. The best it's had is just under 60%, but that was the first election. Interest has dropped significantly since.

The EU - that "must have" thing for indy Scotland - gets even worse, at around 25-30%.

In comparison, the recent general elections are in the range 58-63%, slightly lower than the UK average (which of course is dragged down a little by the lower Scottish turnout).

So it's pretty easy to conclude that Scotland is less engaged with politics and not more-so as it likes to claim.

Edited May 22, 2014 by eFestivals

[russycarps]

I guess maybe they are so sophisticated they dont need to actually turn up and vote.

[eFestivals]

I read something last night which suggested that the whole currency union thing is part of a Salmond plan - so that he's able to continue to blame the English Westminster for any continuing problems in Scotland, whilst also getting what he really wants.

So this theory goes, he knows that CU is a non-starter, but he also knows he can't win if that's clear to the Scottish. So by saying iScotland will get CU, he shores up the indy support.

And when it's refused, he can blame the English Westminster for being "unfair" to iScotland (without reference to international law, of course ).

That leaves iScotland needing a currency.

Salmond has made clear in the past his hatred for Sterling ("the millstone around Scotland's neck") and his desire for iScotland to use the Euro. Salmond has also stated his determination for iScotland to be an immediate EU member.

iScotland will then have an extra carrot to dangle towards the EU - of iScotland being in the Eurozone (which has the added advantage of pressuring the rUK in that direction) - which will help things along in regard to iScotland's EU membership.

So Salmond gets what he wants - the EU, and the Euro, and some lines about the English Westminster to spin to the Scottish people to further enable him from being held to account.

And the democratic views of the people of iScotland? They don't matter a fuck. It's power for him that this is about.

------

It sounds quite extreme, but when you step back and consider it, there's nothing about it which doesn't fit with what Salmond likes to say and do.

After all, he's already shown that he's not beyond stating blatant lies for the Scottish people to suck up to try and empower the yes campaign, as he showed a few weeks ago with his Bruges speech.

Edited May 22, 2014 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

"If Scotland becomes independent, would you want to keep your British citizenship?"

This is actually a really major issue. Under current theory, I'd have Scottish citizenship, despite having only lived there for the first 11 months of my life, yet can't vote, while people born in England who've moved to Scotland can vote, yet would get British citizenship.

Ridiculous.

[eFestivals]

This is actually a really major issue. Under current theory, I'd have Scottish citizenship, despite having only lived there for the first 11 months of my life, yet can't vote, while people born in England who've moved to Scotland can vote, yet would get British citizenship.

Ridiculous.

British citizenship is about the most liberal in the world, and everyone born in the UK gets it forever (even if they give it up).

While yes-ers like to play their own game of project fear (as Alex did in his Bruges speech, with lies) and suggest that Westminster will penalise Scotland whichever way the vote goes, it's of course bollocks.

[eFestivals]

Could you imagine independence being won by a 30% turn out...

'yes' don't care, victory is everything - and sod the rest of the population.

If there was ever an election Scots should vote in it is this one! I would of like to see a threshold on turnout introduced before independence was allowed.

I'd guess that would probably be happening if it hadn't been done like that previously, but just as last time it would be used to play up the victim thing.

Like you, I think an irreversible poll like this one should have to pass a threshold related to turnout, because a new state requires its population to be solidly behind that new state.

That poll on keeping UK citizenship gets to show that it's a very different scenario - that a big chunk of Scots are happy to take a punt on independence, but that they desperately want to keep their own personal opt-out if it goes badly. I dunno whether to laugh or cry.

[LJS]

Most folk seem to be expecting turnout of over 80% in referendum.

I'm sure I also read somewhere of significant increase in voter registration.

No idea of course how true these are.

I always encourage people to use their vote however they use it.

Edited May 22, 2014 by LJS

[eFestivals]

Most folk seem to be expecting turnout of over 80% in referendum.

If it is, then that will be excellent - tho it still of course allows the possibility of yes winning the vote but with less than a majority of the possible vote.

Given how close the vote seems likely to be if there is a 'yes' victory, that majority-but-not scenario seems very possible.

I can't say I feel very comfortable about that, for an issue that brings about massive and irreversible change.

[Buff124]

I get a "page not found"

Wow... you checked a link. I didn't think anyone did that.here

Link duly amended - http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/erss_roundtable1_a5_web.pdf

Edited May 22, 2014 by Buff124

[Buff124]

and yet rejecting the union is rejecting the union.

Not necessarily.

or rather, voting Yes is not necessarily a rejection of all aspects of the current Union.

just as voting No is not necessarily a ringing endorsement of the status quo

Edited May 22, 2014 by Buff124

[LJS]

I would of suggested a 70% turn out for independence to go forward... I think at 80% you would be hearing the message from the people...

The only other option would be to make voting compulsory in the hope of getting into the high 90s,,, and I don't think we are ready for that.

Whilst I fully understand the logic behind all these proposals, I dislike the fact that they effectively give power to people who can't be arsed voting.

When we (uk) have a voting system which leads to us regularly being governed by parties for whom less than 25% of the electorate have voted, it's pretty hard to justify any minimum turnout or pro change %.

Whatever the result in September, if the campaign has persuaded more people to get involved in politics, it will have achieved something.

[Buff124]

if the campaign has persuaded more people to get involved in politics, it will have achieved something.

I agree that its more important than the result, democracy-wise (apologies for the Charlie-ism)

Even better perhaps is the sense that the referendum campaign has persuaded a fair number of people to get re-involved in politics. People who had disengaged after the Iraq invasion, or after Ravenscraig, or after Blair succeeded Smith, or even after Clause IV.

People who saw how things went at branch level - how their hopes and aspirations for society were deemed irrelevant and old fashioned.

Well now they're coming back.

Edited May 22, 2014 by Buff124

[LJS]

I agree that its more important than the result, democracy-wise (apologies for the Charlie-ism)

Even better perhaps is the sense that the referendum campaign has persuaded a fair number of people to get re-involved in politics. People who had disengaged after the Iraq invasion, or after Ravenscraig, or after Blair succeeded Smith, or even after Clause IV.

People who saw how things went at branch level - how their hopes and aspirations for society were deemed irrelevant and old fashioned.

Well now they're coming back.

Yeah, agree 100%. Although I have always taken a keen interest in politics & current affairs, this campaign has got me engaged in a way that I haven't been for 30 years.

[LJS]

Many yes supporters complain of media bias. I don't generally bother ...there's no point really.

But for those who doubt it, have a read at this.

Scots are ‘happy to pay extra tax’ after Yes vote

http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-are-happy-to-pay-extra-tax-after-yes-vote-1-3419105

A headline which is entirely unsupported by anything in the article below.

Astonishing Appalling & almost unbelievable

Edited May 22, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

there have been two very disturbing polls published recently - They are disturbing for different reasons & I am surprised that Neil has not picked up on them.

Seven out of ten Scots 'back Ukip policy on immigration

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/seven-out-of-ten-scots-back-ukip-policy-on-immigration.24278719

&

English votes may kill off independence

ENGLISH voters living in Scotland could swing the result of the independence referendum in favour of the United Kingdom, according to a new poll.

The findings of the latest Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times and the independent radio station Heart came as the Queen intervened in the debate, highlighting the need for “healing divisions” after the vote.

It follows concerns about personalised attacks from supporters and opponents of independence, which Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael warns could “poison the well”.

The poll suggests slightly more Scots support than oppose independence (44% versus 42%, with 14% undecided) ahead of September’s vote.

But it indicates that English voters, who account for 10% of Scotland’s electorate, are 66% against independence, with 27% in favour — which could make the difference between success or failure for the Yes campaign.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/ScottishReferendum/article1412162.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_05_18

The results of the first poll are deeply disturbing to me because they appear to contradict much of my case for independence and I await someone with more expertise than me analysing them - the second poll disturbs me because I wonder about the motivation for wanting to know this. I am a yes voter. I am in favour of all residents of Scotland having the right to vote. I have no interest ion knowing what percentage of English, Asian, Welsh, Spanish etc people are pro or anti independence.

Was it really just curiosity that motivated the Sunday Times when they paid to have that question asked.

At the present time the best riposte I can manage to both polls is this wonderful article - one of the most uplifting pieces of pro Independence writing I have read. And much more in tune with my personal experience than either poll.

& yes it all happened in a Scotland within the UK but it happened in spite of the UK not because of it.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-fall-guys/#more-55496

Edited May 22, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

A none vote can only be viewed as a no vote surely?

Why?

[viberunner]

Why?

Because he's in the No camp.

[eFestivals]

Not necessarily.

or rather, voting Yes is not necessarily a rejection of all aspects of the current Union.

I think you need to go ask your mum to explain what independence actually means, cos it seems you don't understand what you plan to vote in support of.