Football 2013-2014

[thetime]

On the bright side going to united this week, hopefully get to the final.

As Liverpool fans kept reminding everyone, winning the capital one cup is better than 4th...

[pink_triangle]

They are 6 points behind liverpool at the moment, ( an massively behind on goal difference) and anywwhere between 6-4 points behind Spurs and Everton ( Depending on how tonight goes)

So to be in top 4, they have to win two more games than Spurs, Everton and Liverpool. It's not completely unfeasible, but i would think it somewhat unlikely...

[thetime]

While 6 points sounds a lot on paper you have to consider that man utd play liverpool (the team currently in possesion) at home. Win the game and that points difference is 3. Considering the points difference between the 2 sides was so similar in the first half of the season, its not a huge gap to make up. Spurs I find so difficult to assess because they dont deserve to be joint with liverpool, but football is all about wins, draws and losses and have managed to accumulate the points without playing well

[eFestivals]

Blimey are united in the relegation zone?

Did you 2 actually watch the game? The only ingredient missing was we had no firepower, other than that we were a match for Chelsea.

Get RVP/Rooney back and sharpish we will make top 4.

It was defo one of Utd's better performances, but a one-of is just a one-of.

Utd aren't going to lose every game, but neither are they going to win enough.

[eFestivals]

Not looking great for Aldershot Neil, I though after having made the point deduction up, they would then pull away. Im starting to think that may not happen now.

I know. Depressing.

I really wouldn't be surprised if the owners want them in the lower leagues, cos with the (comparative) massive sized crowds Aldershot get at those lower levels there's money to be made.

Does that sound too daft to be true? Perhaps, but from a club that's recently got to know about the money to be made there and the struggles at higher levels, I really wouldn't be surprised to hear it was a deliberate plan.

[LondonTom]

No chance unless Reid, McCartney, and Tomkins get fit and/or we reinforce in that area.

[eFestivals]

Liverpool messed up far more this weekend than Man U did.

Nah, you're looking too much at the small picture. Both are the expected dropping of points.

Liverpool are going to drop points against some other teams, that's how it goes for a team in around 4th. It doesn't really matter which teams they drop the points to, it only matters that they don't drop too many. After all, it's not really too likely that they'd lose twice to (say) Hull in the same season.

As it happens right now, for the games played so far in the 2nd half of the season, Liverpool have one more point for the same games than they got from the first half of the season (cos they lost against Hull at Hull, and beat them at Anfield), so it could be claimed just as sensibly as this weekend was bad for them that they're flying high - but to concentrate on that small picture would be equally as flawed.

To be sure of 4th they probably need 3 more points than they got in the first half, and that allows them (for instance) 2 losses and 4 more draws.

(I suspect tho that they'd get 4th with the same points for the 2nd half of the season as the first).

If Liverpool were to achieve results around that mark (and if you look at the fixtures you'd be foolish to say it would be difficult [tho it's not a given]) then there's almost naff-all chance for Utd to make the top 4 even if they hit top form - cos they're going to drop points along the way too, no matter how well they're going.

Edited January 20, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Spurs I find so difficult to assess because they dont deserve to be joint with liverpool, but football is all about wins, draws and losses and have managed to accumulate the points without playing well

As you say, they're not playing well.

It's honeymoon period, and they've been easy fixtures. It won't last, particularly once the tactical nativity gets shown up against a decent team.

[kaosmark2]

Nah, you're looking too much at the small picture. Both are the expected dropping of points.

Liverpool are going to drop points against some other teams, that's how it goes for a team in around 4th. It doesn't really matter which teams they drop the points to, it only matters that they don't drop too many. After all, it's not really too likely that they'd lose twice to (say) Hull in the same season.

As it happens right now, for the games played so far in the 2nd half of the season, Liverpool have one more point for the same games than they got from the first half of the season (cos they lost against Hull at Hull, and beat them at Anfield), so it could be claimed just as sensibly as this weekend was bad for them that they're flying high - but to concentrate on that small picture would be equally as flawed.

To be sure of 4th they probably need 3 more points than they got in the first half, and that allows them (for instance) 2 losses and 4 more draws.

(I suspect tho that they'd get 4th with the same points for the 2nd half of the season as the first).

If Liverpool were to achieve results around that mark (and if you look at the fixtures you'd be foolish to say it would be difficult [tho it's not a given]) then there's almost naff-all chance for Utd to make the top 4 even if they hit top form - cos they're going to drop points along the way too, no matter how well they're going.

[eFestivals]

One thing that spurs have over Liverpool is that spurs are not over reliant on one player, Liverpool are favourites if they keep Suarez playing.

Suarez is fantastic, and it's hard to see how they'd keep going at the same rate without him .... unless you look back to the beginning of the season, when they did plenty all right.

He'd be missed of course, but i think the supposed reliance on him is over-stated. If you look at the 2nd half on Saturday (1st half best forgotten ) they were short in midfield (tho still ran the place) because of two up front, so it's not only-lose without Suarez on the pitch.

I'm much more worried for Liverpool by the thought of Rodgers not learning anything from that 1st half* than I would be Suarez injured for the rest of the season.

(* that Gerrard is too shit to play that role).

[eFestivals]

Pink Triangle's made the point before, but Liverpool lack easy games. Their home games are against the other top clubs where they could drop points, and no away game in the league is easy. Yes they'll win a fair number of away games against weaker teams, but I don't think their form against the top clubs will improve sufficiently to compensate for the extra ones they drop.

Great season regardless, so unpredictable.

Yep, defo a great unpredictable season.

But here's some predictions via a game I've been playing for a few weeks...

(read from the bottom of the list)

Liverpool V Newcastle Sunday 11th May 2014 15:00 - W - 3 POINT UP

Crystal Palace V Liverpool Saturday 3rd May 2014 15:00 - W - 3 POINT UP

Liverpool V Chelsea Saturday 26th April 2014 15:00 - D - 3 POINT UP

Norwich V Liverpool Saturday 19th April 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Man City Saturday 12th April 2014 15:00 - L - 2 POINT UP

West Ham V Liverpool Saturday 5th April 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Tottenham Saturday 29th March 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Cardiff V Liverpool Saturday 22nd March 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Man Utd V Liverpool Saturday 15th March 2014 15:00 - L - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Sunderland Saturday 8th March 2014 15:00 - W - 5 POINT UP

Southampton V Liverpool Saturday 1st March 2014 15:00 - D - 5 POINT UP

Liverpool V Swansea Sunday 23rd February 2014 13:30 - W - 4 POINT UP

Fulham V Liverpool Wednesday 12th February 2014 20:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Arsenal Saturday 8th February 2014 12:45 - D - 2 POINT UP

West Brom V Liverpool Sunday 2nd February 2014 13:30 - W - 1 POINT UP

Liverpool V Everton Tuesday 28th January 2014 20:00 - D - 1 POINT UP

The "2 POINT UP" [etc] bits are compared to the same games in the 1st half of the season.

I've not got the W/D/L right for the past 3 games, but I have got the points acquired across those three games right.

If Liverpool manage a W/D/L rate equal to my predictions above, they'll defo make top 4 (they'll have 3 points more from the 2nd half of the season than the 1st).

Edited January 20, 2014 by eFestivals

[zahidf]

As you say, they're not playing well.

It's honeymoon period, and they've been easy fixtures. It won't last, particularly once the tactical nativity gets shown up against a decent team.

[thetime]

Yeah, they can only get the victories against mid to lower table sides like Crystal Palace, Swansea and Man Utd.

[kaosmark2]

Yep, defo a great unpredictable season.

But here's some predictions via a game I've been playing for a few weeks...

(read from the bottom of the list)

Liverpool V Newcastle Sunday 11th May 2014 15:00 - W - 3 POINT UP

Crystal Palace V Liverpool Saturday 3rd May 2014 15:00 - W - 3 POINT UP

Liverpool V Chelsea Saturday 26th April 2014 15:00 - D - 3 POINT UP

Norwich V Liverpool Saturday 19th April 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Man City Saturday 12th April 2014 15:00 - L - 2 POINT UP

West Ham V Liverpool Saturday 5th April 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Tottenham Saturday 29th March 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Cardiff V Liverpool Saturday 22nd March 2014 15:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Man Utd V Liverpool Saturday 15th March 2014 15:00 - L - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Sunderland Saturday 8th March 2014 15:00 - W - 5 POINT UP

Southampton V Liverpool Saturday 1st March 2014 15:00 - D - 5 POINT UP

Liverpool V Swansea Sunday 23rd February 2014 13:30 - W - 4 POINT UP

Fulham V Liverpool Wednesday 12th February 2014 20:00 - W - 2 POINT UP

Liverpool V Arsenal Saturday 8th February 2014 12:45 - D - 2 POINT UP

West Brom V Liverpool Sunday 2nd February 2014 13:30 - W - 1 POINT UP

Liverpool V Everton Tuesday 28th January 2014 20:00 - D - 1 POINT UP

The "2 POINT UP" [etc] bits are compared to the same games in the 1st half of the season.

I've not got the W/D/L right for the past 3 games, but I have got the points acquired across those three games right.

If Liverpool manage a W/D/L rate equal to my predictions above, they'll defo make top 4 (they'll have 3 points more from the 2nd half of the season than the 1st).

[kaosmark2]

Doesnt quite work that one.

[eFestivals]

They won't get that rate though. Derby aside, you're being as optimistic as possible for every game. Games like away to Fulham, WBA, Cardiff involve slip-ups. I don't disagree on many individual predictions, but they won't all come in like that, and they're not going to gain more points than you've predicted against Arsenal/Chelsea/Spurs than they're going to drop away to lower/mid-table sides.

I agree that I've probably got one more win in there than there should be, which will instead be a loss (it's hard to plump for one specific match when they're matches Liverpool should really win).

But, i'd also say it's likely* one more draw in there than will happen, with it instead being a win.

(* likely, but less likely than me having given one more win than they'll get).

If we go with me having given them a win which will instead be a draw, that gives Liverpool the same points for the 2nd half than they got in the first - and I strongly suspect that'll be enough for them (cos City and Chelsea will get more).

[kaosmark2]

I agree that I've probably got one more win in there than there should be, which will instead be a loss (it's hard to plump for one specific match when they're matches Liverpool should really win).

But, i'd also say it's likely* one more draw in there than will happen, with it instead being a win.

(* likely, but less likely than me having given one more win than they'll get).

If we go with me having given them a win which will instead be a draw, that gives Liverpool the same points for the 2nd half than they got in the first - and I strongly suspect that'll be enough for them (cos City and Chelsea will get more).

[strummer77]

Getting Agger and Enrique back is more important than anything right now. I've thought for a while privately that Everton will get fourth, but Spurs looking better too now...

[eFestivals]

I think you've got 2 or 3 more wins in there than will happen, although I'd say most of those will turn to draws. They probably will get a surprisingly good result in one of the games you've predicted as a draw, but I still think they'll drop substantially more points than you're predicting.

I'm pretty sure they'll get at least the same points total in the 2nd half of the season as they did the 1st.

What I'm less sure about is whether that'll be enough for 4th, but it's Everton and Spurs that are the worry for that, and not Utd.

However, I really can't see Spurs going well against the better teams so I can't see them keeping up their winning, so that just leaves Everton ... and I just don't think they'll have it in them to hang in there.

Utd might get 5th, but they'll be 3 points or more from 4th.

[Essex_George]

Getting Agger and Enrique back is more important than anything right now.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Essex_George

[eFestivals]

Spurs looking better too now...

They're not, they're merely winning.

[kaosmark2]

They're not, they're merely winning.

[thetime]

Utd might get 5th, but they'll be 3 points or more from 4th.

[eFestivals]

Adebayor in form >> Soldado.

but they're still as frail at the back - a massive problem - and a half-decent team can walk thru their midfield.

Plus of course "Adebayor in form" equals about 6 games in any season. His time is about up.

[eFestivals]

I'm hoping united are no where near 5th, 7th/8th if not 4th please.

I'd say that Utd would be massively better off with 5th, for going forwards.

5th would make it reasonably easy to convince good players that a poor season was a one-of, which they'll quickly bounce back from.

Lower than 5th and the better players would fear for their careers by going to Utd. They'll be wanting a better move if they can get it.