Weather thread 2015

[whatmidlifecrisis?]

Getting annoyed at people in work now .. 'Oh I've heard it's going to be a washout this year isn't it. It said so in The Mirror. Good luck, glad it's not me!"

Sadly, my response of "Pedmills, Briddj, Jackone etc on the efestivals forum have reassured us that it'll all be fine with light showers across Friday and Sunday" has fallen on deaf ears.

[wetflame]

Agreed - I have to say, the ride that we've been on in this thread has been spectacular. Much respect to pedmills and briddj who have been breaking down all the info into easily digestible summaries and charts. Feels great to see the little trend line going down and to know we're not in for a washout.

 

I wonder what the vibe would have been on the thread if it was heading back towards 2014 levels? Having gone for the first time last year, all this talk of very little rain is music to my ears. I know that whatever happens now, it won't be that bad and I can look forward to an awesome time at the fest. Can't wait!

[A Guy Called Matt]

Right here are this morning's forecasts according to 17 different weather websites.

 

First, how the forecasts have evolved over the last few weeks:

 

As you can see, all forecasts are currently below the rainfall figures I have for 2007, 2014, 2009 and 2011.

Next, how the maximum has changed in the last few days compared to the forecasts in 2013 and 2014:

The most amount of rain predicted on the tuesday before 2014 is almost 6x as much as the highest forecast this year. 

 

Next, how the mean has changed in the last few days compared to the forecasts in 2013 and 2014: 

 

The mean is currently 4mm - which is very close to the rainfall figure i have for 2013. The figure I have for 2014 is ten times the current mean, and the forecast on the tuesday before the festival 2015 was almost five times as much.

 

Next, of the 17 sites I've looked at, there are 6 which I have data for the tuesday forecasts in 2013, 2014 and 2015:

 

Note how much worse 2014 looks compared to 2013 and 2015.

 

And finally, the forecast rainfall separated by day:

 

So about 2mm on the friday and about 2mm on the sunday.

Doesn't sound too bad, does it?

 

Brilliant

 

thank you so much and I hope you get many proposals

[Space Shanty]

Yeah thanks to those folk who have been dredging through daily reports from all over the show.

Excellent reporting.

It's going to be grand.

Anyone who has been there through a proper mudbath will know that these reports are nowt to worry about.

Safe travels to all

[mrfunk]

Again this thread just show how good the Glasto tribe really are... A big

 

THANKS from thefunk !.

 

Cant wait BTW

[rubenz]

Perfect conditions in the south West today, seeing a few glasto goers in Bristol centre now

[whatmidlifecrisis?]

Apart from the ill informed seeming to gloat at the possibility that the best week of my year will be washed out I also get the 'aren't you gutted that you got your ticket expecting the Foos and you are getting Florence instead'

Thankfully I could not give a flying whatnot what anyone else believes. its almost here people.

Big thanks to all on this thread for the hard work and humour. It has been emotional.

[mungo57]

I will definitely take this forecast.

Glad the ground took some rain yesterday too, so my tent pegs go in!

See you all on Thursday guys, we don't get there until about 8/9am so have a good Wednesday at the meet and thanks to all the regular posters in here for the valuable info. You are all legends!

[Mark it Zero!]

We're lucky really, this weekend just gone was pretty sh*tty weatherwise - in Cambridge at least. And the weekend after is currently looking appalling...

 

So based on that Glastonbury has lucked out a bit.... if it stays like this.

 

All I'd change is add a few sunny spells to break apart the rain on Sunday and help things dry off.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

Update for today. Showers seems to be pretty locked in now. We are talking light showers, not mudbath, probably not even mud at all.

J10: Dry and fine for Wednesday and Thursday, damp and Cloudy on Friday. Still uncertain for the weekend probably mostly dry on Saturday with some showers at worse. while showers are possible on Sunday. .

GFS: Showers Friday afternoon and Sunday

TWO: Showers on Friday, but otherwise dry

Meteox: Showers Friday, showers Sunday. Tiny shower Saturday.

Meteo: Light showers on Friday and Sunday. Otherwise dry.

GFS Ensemble: Showers overnight on Friday.

Met Office: Showers Friday. Not forecasting Sunday yet.

ECM: Possible showers on Saturday. Otherwise dry.

YR.NO: Light showers Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Norton-Radstock – Warm and humid with a lot of cloud at times and the chance of some showery rain on Friday before cooler, fresher and dry conditions return on Saturday.

 

 

Right here are this morning's forecasts according to 17 different weather websites.

 

First, how the forecasts have evolved over the last few weeks:

 

As you can see, all forecasts are currently below the rainfall figures I have for 2007, 2014, 2009 and 2011.

Next, how the maximum has changed in the last few days compared to the forecasts in 2013 and 2014:

The most amount of rain predicted on the tuesday before 2014 is almost 6x as much as the highest forecast this year. 

 

Next, how the mean has changed in the last few days compared to the forecasts in 2013 and 2014: 

 

The mean is currently 4mm - which is very close to the rainfall figure i have for 2013. The figure I have for 2014 is ten times the current mean, and the forecast on the tuesday before the festival 2015 was almost five times as much.

 

Next, of the 17 sites I've looked at, there are 6 which I have data for the tuesday forecasts in 2013, 2014 and 2015:

 

Note how much worse 2014 looks compared to 2013 and 2015.

 

And finally, the forecast rainfall separated by day:

 

So about 2mm on the friday and about 2mm on the sunday.

Doesn't sound too bad, does it?

 

excellent work all round. Phenomenal effort by yourselves and all the other weather forecasters/statisticians etc. over the last few weeks.

[Kitafer]

Been lurking for a while now but created an account just to say thanks to the guys for taking time out to keep us all updated. It's been emotional!

I've learned so much about weather and football!

[SimplyFred]

Absolutely astounding work all. This thread has been occasionally infuriating, often amusing, ridiculously informative, gloriously unpredictable and beyond all never less than totally & addictively exhilarating. Us Brits really do f*cking love our weather chat.

Thanks for those that have put in the hard yards, looks like you're sterling work has paid off fingers crossed!

[big__phil]

Thanks to everyone who has provided graphs, explanations, visual aids, pie charts, pictures of Phil Jones, HAIM, Norwegian footballers, marriage propsals, and even the trolls. I hope to see you Gillespied in the sun!

[jparx]

Yeah cheers guys. This thread has been so entertaining. Now it's time to just keep our fingers crossed!

[briddj]

06Z runs coming soon!

[danbailey80]

remember to thank jackone...

[briddj]

All good for the first two days. but we've known this for ages.

 

 

Weds: No rain, max temp stable at 21, pressure stable.

Thurs: No rain, max temp stable at 23, pressure stable (maybe even rising slightly from earlier).

[Dr Glasto]

Thanks all!! Let's have a good'un

[Mark it Zero!]

For those who join us now here is The story of The Weather Thread told through the medium of Phil Jones infographic.

 

Kudos to those for whom this joke is just a horse I am hitching a ride on.

 

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/gallery/image/5071-phil-jones-infographic/

[devonhammer]

For those who join us now here is The story of The Weather Thread told through the medium of Phil Jones infographic.

 

Kudos to those for whom this joke is just a horse I am hitching a ride on.

 

 

Now I understand it. Pedmills could learn a thing from you

[briddj]

Fri: Pretty much like before with light showers arriving 3pm to late evening. Less of a threat to the north once again. Max temps a degree higher at 22, pressure stable.

[stopwn1981]

I think you'll find it's trending a bit on the poorer side post Thursday.

[Franky]

Fuck it who gives a shit anymore, Glastonburys tomorrow !!!!! Woooohoooo

[brain yolk!]

Fuck it who gives a shit anymore, Glastonburys tomorrow !!!!! Woooohoooo

This.

 

I think you'll find it's trending a bit on the poorer side post Thursday.

Not this.

Edited June 23, 2015 by brain yolk!

[Starchild771]

Fuck it who gives a shit anymore, Glastonburys tomorrow !!!!! Woooohoooo

This perfectly sums up how I feel.