Weather thread 2015

[cassiel1972]

It looks as though the entire site will need to huddle round Arcadia for warmth - but, other than being a wee bit chilly, this looks fine.

[Wooderson]

Point here is that Jackone is always 100% accurate. All he is doing is presenting the information on the radars/charts and informing us, at each run point, what they would mean for the festival. He's not claiming he has any higher power to predict, he is just the conduit to the charts and will offer opinions on the chances of what might change.

Predicting weather for Glasters with certainty prior to the Sunday is a mugs game. JACKONE the father of that movement. He's generated a little notoriety for himself which is great.

[musky]

For those wondering about J10's (Jackone) accuracy, here's his forecast 7 days out last year.

Summary
The pre festival rainfall is now forecast to be 10mm or less, and together with most of the festival looking dry, things are looking up. Pressure is steadily set to build over the UK from the South West from Monday onwards, with a good deal of settled weather expected until probably Friday. Some op runs continue to go for unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a slow but steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down.

Ratings :-

Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6/10 With the site currently in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend

Newspaper Taglines
Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, perhaps hire those wellies as you may be able to get your money back on unused goods.

Understandably vague, but generally correct. His full forecast here.

Edited June 19, 2015 by musky

[jezzer]

Looking far more positive this morning on the Netweather forum...

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83255-model-output-discussion-1st-june-2015-12z/page-38

Even when I'm not attending I still get sucked into this thread. Have a fab time guys!

[Untz]

GFS latest runs look much better. Only rain of any note is in the early hours of Friday morning and the high over Greenland that's pushing the bad weather south is breaking down.

 

Good. What does Greenland need high pressure for? It's meant to have shitty weather, it's Greenland.

[grandadcollective]

Looks fine.

[eFestivals]

pick your favourite weather forecast folks - cos the weather we do what you choose for it to do.

[neil999]

Good. What does Greenland need high pressure for? It's meant to have shitty weather, it's Greenland.

 

when i was little, i always thought it was funny a country called greenland was covered in snow...i once laughed about it for 3 hours straight

 

the irony i once mused, as i grabbed another rusk...

[sjseabass]

yr.no showing 1.1mm rain over the entire festival, sunshine Friday and Saturday? STICK

[jeffie]

 STICK

Edited June 19, 2015 by jeffie

[Swine_Glasto2014]

yr.no showing 1.1mm rain over the entire festival, sunshine Friday and Saturday? STICK

I can't take the ups And downs anymore

[stopwn1981]

It appears they are really struggling to predict what's going to happen with this low pressure next week. Basically all bets are off and anything could happen. I'd like to know at what point confidence levels about where the pressure will track rise to something above pure quests work. I'd imagine about 3 days out. So basically by Monday we should have a very good idea about the start of the festival, but for the weekend we'll already be on site.

[st dan]

I have blind faith in the Campsite Crews little blackboards with their daily forecast whilst I'm there. It's usually spot on.

[The Placid Casual]

I don't trust any forecast after the disaster that was Leeds 2013.

[Harry3]

Leeds is a disaster in general though

[Starks]

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/gallery/image/5045-friiday-9th/

 

Rejoice all is well with the world

[mungo57]

Yr.no makes very good reading this morning

http://m.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Shepton_Mallet/long.html

I'd take that

[tom22]

 

 

 

Rejoice all is well with the world

 

 

job done. 

[Untz]

 

 

 

Rejoice all is well with the world

 

 

Excellent. Lets hope those temperatures don't drop. 

[devonhammer]

Rundown of this mornings forecasts:

 

J10: "much less rain overall and as such less mud, and more time for the site to dry out.

There will still be ups and downs, hopefully there will be more ups in the coming days."

GFS: Showers Wednesday. Rain overnight Thursday. Showers Friday morning. Otherwise dry. 

TWO: Showers on Friday, but otherwise dry

Meteox: Not in forecast range yet. 

Meteo: Only forecasts to Friday of festival, but very light showers.

GFS Ensemble: The mean (average) is for light showers through the festival. 

Met Office: No specific forecast yet, but "From Thursday onwards, northern and western parts will tend to be cooler and windier with showers or longer spells of rain at times ". 

ECM: Not in forecast range yet. 

YR.NO: Very light shower on Sunday. Otherwise dry.

[mungo57]

so it will either rain or it won't

 

we will be fine, I will bring snorkel and flippers as well as a deckchair shorts and flip flops to cover both eventualities

[Starks]

Rundown of this mornings forecasts:

 

J10: "much less rain overall and as such less mud, and more time for the site to dry out.

There will still be ups and downs, hopefully there will be more ups in the coming days."

GFS: Showers Wednesday. Rain overnight Thursday. Showers Friday morning. Otherwise dry. 

TWO: Showers on Friday, but otherwise dry

Meteox: Not in forecast range yet. 

Meteo: Only forecasts to Friday of festival, but very light showers.

GFS Ensemble: The mean (average) is for light showers through the festival. 

Met Office: No specific forecast yet, but "From Thursday onwards, northern and western parts will tend to be cooler and windier with showers or longer spells of rain at times ". 

ECM: Not in forecast range yet. 

YR.NO: Very light shower on Sunday. Otherwise dry.

 

The forecasts that I am posting are Meteo and they go up to and beyond the festival.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Starks

[mike86]

is yr.no usually quite accurate?

[ghandi]

 

This is why I love this thread, it makes me laugh Oh the insanity of it all

[**claire**]

Yr.no has lifted my spirits massively this morning!  Norway all the way.