Don't vote Tory

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, Trout Mask Replica said:

Shows how far to the right the political mood in the country has shifted when Corbyn and the current Labour policies are considered to be 'hard' or 'extreme' left. 

They don't go anywhere near far enough for an old anarcho-Marxist like me. 

as the free lunches, free holidays and free money on offer from Jezza gets to show, it's more the unbelievable left that's the problem here, i think.

But Corbyn himself definitely classes as 'hard left' within Labour. That's what his little clique of six has always been about.

[waterfalls212434]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/labour-easily-beating-tories-among-085621940.html

interesting, this is why young people need to get out and vote this time around!

[DeanoL]

On 24/04/2017 at 9:09 PM, arcade fireman said:

You're talking absolute shit. YouGov is pretty much the most accurate pollster we have.

For the EU referendum they were only 3% out - it just happened to be either side of the 50/50 divide.

For the notorious 2015 General election they were 3% out with each party and that was the worst result they had.

For the 2010 GE they were within 1% out.

They predicted the London mayoral election, the Scottish independence referendum and both Labour leadership contests in the last two years right. 

Certainly they are no less accurate and probably more accurate than the other polling companies we have.

I don't give a shit who owns YouGov. All that matters is how accurate they are and they're a hell of a lot more accurate than an ITV online poll. 

Like I said, I am sick of the left being spoken for by people with little critical thinking abilities. Learn how to analyse numbers quantitatively rather than the political allegiance of the person owning the business that compiles them and then come back to me. 

 

Said YouGov are reporting Labour up 4 points and Tories down three:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-lead-labour-cut-seven-points-general-election-poll-latest-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-a7704796.html?cmpid=facebook-post

[arcade fireman]

4 hours ago, DeanoL said:

Said YouGov are reporting Labour up 4 points and Tories down three:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-lead-labour-cut-seven-points-general-election-poll-latest-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-a7704796.html?cmpid=facebook-post

Let's hope the polls narrow a bit - Labour are going to lose badly either way but less than 150 seats would be an absolute disaster. 

But this is just one poll - do need this from a few polls to say there's a trend.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, arcade fireman said:

Let's hope the polls narrow a bit

I think, in the end, Labour won't do as badly as the polling suggests.

I reckon the polling is picking up something of people feeling like they can't vote for Labour, but in the end many of those will hold their nose and do it anyway.

Jezza will probably claim the difference between any polls and the actual vote as a victory. It's the only place he's likely to find one, i reckon, if there's going to be one to be found.

[arcade fireman]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I think, in the end, Labour won't do as badly as the polling suggests.

I reckon the polling is picking up something of people feeling like they can't vote for Labour, but in the end many of those will hold their nose and do it anyway.

Jezza will probably claim the difference between any polls and the actual vote as a victory. It's the only place he's likely to find one, i reckon, if there's going to be one to be found.

Really it's anyone's guess. I think there's a lot of lifelong Labour voters who feel so let down and frustrated by Corbyn's leadership that they will vote Tory/Lib Dem in protest. Also the dynamics of most elections tends to find the governing party gaining support in the polls as the election gets nearer, though this clearly isn't most elections. 180 seats for Labour would represent a win from here and would give them something to work with in 2022 even if it's forcing a hung Parliament.

Less than 150 and might as well plan for 2027.

[russycarps]

The fact that UKIP has imploded will help labour more than people think. There are still lots of people up north who would never vote tory who will ditch ukip and go back to labour due to lack of other options.

I hope anyway.

 

[DeanoL]

5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

I think, in the end, Labour won't do as badly as the polling suggests.

I reckon the polling is picking up something of people feeling like they can't vote for Labour, but in the end many of those will hold their nose and do it anyway.

Jezza will probably claim the difference between any polls and the actual vote as a victory. It's the only place he's likely to find one, i reckon, if there's going to be one to be found.

I think there's another route, although Corbyn can't really do it, Farron probably could. Essentially someone needs to pin Theresa May down right now on what she considers a win. She called the election to get an increased majority for a stronger mandate for a hard Brexit. Someone needs to ask her exactly what size majority she thinks will give her that mandate. Because if she's fighting the elections on those terms, it is 'winnable' in terms of denying a hard Brexit, even if not in keeping the Tories out.

[arcade fireman]

4 hours ago, russycarps said:

The fact that UKIP has imploded will help labour more than people think. There are still lots of people up north who would never vote tory who will ditch ukip and go back to labour due to lack of other options.

I hope anyway.

 

Unfortunately a lot of the UKIP voters will go Tory. Brexit has changed a lot - Brexit voters trust Theresa May far more than Jeremy Corbyn to deliver the Brexit they want. The only plus might be for 2022 - a lot of these voters may come back to Labour once Brexit is done and it's clear living standards have massively squeezed.

[eFestivals]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think there's another route, although Corbyn can't really do it, Farron probably could. Essentially someone needs to pin Theresa May down right now on what she considers a win. She called the election to get an increased majority for a stronger mandate for a hard Brexit. Someone needs to ask her exactly what size majority she thinks will give her that mandate. Because if she's fighting the elections on those terms, it is 'winnable' in terms of denying a hard Brexit, even if not in keeping the Tories out.

not a bad idea on pinning her down on what she'd consider a win. Not much good for now, tho good for holding her to account in the future.

But I reckon the idea that she wants a hard brexit is totally wrong, despite the tough talking she makes. To my mind there's a combination of convincing brexit voters she means to leave the EU, but just as importantly of convincing the headbangers in her own party when she has such a small majority.

I'm not really expecting all three of Fox, Davis & and Boris to be in the same roles after the GE, tho perhaps one of them will be (most likely Davis as he has the role where continuation makes the most sense), and I see he election for May being about getting a power above the tory MP brexiters at least as much as any other factor.

What happens with the EU isn't soley in her power of course, but i reckon her aim for a deal is as close to a 'soft brexit' as it's possible to be, tho with an amount of penalisation against that for not having free movement or total ECJ oversight. Fact is the EU can't go too hard at the UK compared to the Canada deal, else it does expose them of dishing out 'punishment'.

Edited April 28, 2017 by eFestivals

[squirrelarmy]

6 hours ago, russycarps said:

The fact that UKIP has imploded will help labour more than people think. There are still lots of people up north who would never vote tory who will ditch ukip and go back to labour due to lack of other options.

I hope anyway.

 

There's a growing generation of people voting now who didn't experience Tory rule under Thatcher/Major. They didn't experience the strikes and pit closures and the big recession of the 90's. These are where a large proportion of their votes will be coming from.

Personally I won't be voting for anyone again. I'd never vote Tory, no other party inspires me to vote for them either. Only time I have voted recently was that damn Brexit but the less we talk about that the better.

[russycarps]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

There's a growing generation of people voting now who didn't experience Tory rule under Thatcher/Major. They didn't experience the strikes and pit closures and the big recession of the 90's. These are where a large proportion of their votes will be coming from.

Personally I won't be voting for anyone again. I'd never vote Tory, no other party inspires me to vote for them either. Only time I have voted recently was that damn Brexit but the less we talk about that the better.

you should at least go to the polling station and spoil your voting paper. Scrawling a crudely drawn cock and balls across the candidates names is one of life's simple pleasures

 

[dentalplan]

20 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

There's a growing generation of people voting now who didn't experience Tory rule under Thatcher/Major. They didn't experience the strikes and pit closures and the big recession of the 90's. These are where a large proportion of their votes will be coming from.

 

Seems like that's the only age group not favouring Conservative.

[reflekting]

6 minutes ago, dentalplan said:

Seems like that's the only age group not favouring Conservative.

Surprised there isn't a biger % of Lib Dem voters in the 18-29 category. Tuition fees aside, they are the only mainstream party who align to the overwhelming majority of young people's Brexit views. 

[dentalplan]

2 minutes ago, reflekting said:

Surprised there isn't a biger % of Lib Dem voters in the 18-29 category. Tuition fees aside, they are the only mainstream party who align to the overwhelming majority of young people's Brexit views. 

That's a 2015 chart. Pre-Brexit and post-coalition bad vibes.

Edited April 28, 2017 by dentalplan

[reflekting]

1 minute ago, dentalplan said:

That's a 2015 chart. Pre-Brexit and post-coalition bad vibes.

Gotcha. Makes sense now. 

[jyoung]

Mildly relevant... I listened to David Cameron's Desert Island Discs on my way to work this morning. It was originally broadcast over ten years ago, when he became leader of the Conservative party. I'll spend the next two months trying to forget that one of his choices was Radiohead - Fake Plastic Trees... Hopefully I can eradicate that from my mind in time for a Pyramid sing-a-long in June.

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, russycarps said:

you should at least go to the polling station and spoil your voting paper. Scrawling a crudely drawn cock and balls across the candidates names is one of life's simple pleasures

 

I'm afraid they've taken even that away from you- last election there was a story of someone who drew a penis in the box next to the Tory candidate, but because it fitted perfectly in the box, they counted it as a vote for him!

[Mr.Tease]

37 minutes ago, reflekting said:

Surprised there isn't a biger % of Lib Dem voters in the 18-29 category. Tuition fees aside, they are the only mainstream party who align to the overwhelming majority of young people's Brexit views. 

Lib Dems had put years into cultivating young voters support, and destroyed it all with their tuition fees stunt.

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

There's a growing generation of people voting now who didn't experience Tory rule under Thatcher/Major. They didn't experience the strikes and pit closures and the big recession of the 90's. These are where a large proportion of their votes will be coming from.

Personally I won't be voting for anyone again. I'd never vote Tory, no other party inspires me to vote for them either. Only time I have voted recently was that damn Brexit but the less we talk about that the better.

What do you want them to offer that would inspire you?

[Fingerbobs]

1 hour ago, russycarps said:

you should at least go to the polling station and spoil your voting paper. Scrawling a crudely drawn cock and balls across the candidates names is one of life's simple pleasures

 

Yes please. As a some time counter in these events it provides much amusement to see a rude word or cock & balls (the hairier the better). 

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Lib Dems had put years into cultivating young voters support, and destroyed it all with their tuition fees stunt.

I'm guessing that many of those shouting the loudest right now about how May wants 'strong govt' are the same ones who complained about govt in the spirit of compromise.

 

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I'm guessing that many of those shouting the loudest right now about how May wants 'strong govt' are the same ones who complained about govt in the spirit of compromise.

 

Oh, I have no problem no problem with 'strong govt' if it's doing what I want it to 

[squirrelarmy]

24 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

What do you want them to offer that would inspire you?

Maybe some actual honesty instead of the usual spun spiel sprouted by all politicians in order to gain votes

[eFestivals]

16 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Maybe some actual honesty instead of the usual spun spiel sprouted by all politicians in order to gain votes

In which case the libdems didn't lie about uni fees. They always made clear coalition requires compromise, and the benefit is you get some of what you want but not all.

It might have seemed a bad deal at the time, but as we're seeing the tories without constraints of coalition are far worse.

Having said all of that - and not because I was voting for them (I wasn't) - I'm really really fucked off with them about the compromise they made over a vote on PR to have one on AV instead. Given their campaigning for at least 40 years, that one is far more unforgivable than the uni fees thing. They should have sacrificed everything else for that want.

Edited April 28, 2017 by eFestivals