Don't vote Tory

[Keithy]

On 19 April 2017 at 7:15 AM, waterfalls212434 said:

Lastly are we really doing this again over polls? look where worrying about polls got us last election time? the polls were well off......and they will be again, because with the brexit situation swinging votes, the increased number of young votes and those voting because they back things under threat from the tories such as the nhs.......I dont see how ANYONE can predict whats going to happen, there are to many unknown variables.
 

 

On 24 April 2017 at 8:57 PM, waterfalls212434 said:

I also see people who view yougov etc as some sort of totally neutral at all times gods of public opinion as just as gormless,  In terms of yougov there is good reason to doubt the polls non bias when it comes to politics 

Im not saying the above guy is right to quote a silly tv poll......but dont call him an idiot and then stand up for yougov in the same post as thats utterly stupid.  

 

16 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

Live yougov poll and follow up weighted poll suggest majority back corbyn on this 

 

I'm confused. I thought polls weren't to be trusted, were well off and biased, especially YouGov.

Or are they ok now they are in Corbyns favour?

[waterfalls212434]

14 minutes ago, Keithy said:

 

 

I'm confused. I thought polls weren't to be trusted, were well off and biased, especially YouGov.

Or are they ok now they are in Corbyns favour?

 

No but seeing ss the majority in that conversation backed them.im sure they have no problem with me using them...or are polls not ok when they are pro corbyn? ;p....what exaclty is wrong eith being pro corbyn anyway? Would you rather may retained power? Those are your 2 choices pal like it or not 

Edited May 26, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[Rose-Colored Boy]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

I was bricking myself over this corbyn interview,but most say he held up okay. 

He did, yes. The IRA stuff is a millstone, and he still tends to waffle where one sentence would suffice, but he fared a lot better than May in hers.

[waterfalls212434]

Michael fallon just got made to look v stupid on c4!

 

Edited May 26, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[zahidf]

ha ha ha ha

 

 

[zahidf]

Oh turns out Corbyn may be in tune with public opinion on foreign policy...

[waterfalls212434]

Im just laughing so hard......because the fucking press and the tory party are trying so hard to smear corbyn and get people to think hes the devil and its stopped working....his and labours stock is on the rise, many polls say people like their manifesto, even the response to the speech today from what ive seen other then the usual right wing tits who would get angry at corbyn even if he offered them a winning lottery ticket the reaction has been positive, good example is what I said above about the papers and the reaction.....`the daily mail`  `CORBYN IS THE DEVIL, HATE THIS MAN HES A TRAITOR` ....`Daily mail  readers` (usually corbyn haters themselves).....umm well actually, this time hes right!

The Tories are shitting themselves you can tell by the desperation, have you seen some of the absolute lies the tory pr twitter account has been tweeting about labours polices for example? all of which followed by numerous replies calling them out on talking absolute crap.

 

Edited May 26, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[EasyUserName]

7 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

Im just laughing so hard......because the fucking press and the tory party are trying so hard to smear corbyn .... etc

 

Well, here is hoping. Either way it would be nice to have a strong opposition. If you're right, one way or the other, we will. 

[EasyUserName]

Just checked the odds on line. Pretty good, if you've faith in this resurgence. To be fair, if I'd put a fiver on brexit ...

 

Still, 12/1 ... do the bookies know something?

[waterfalls212434]

1 minute ago, EasyUserName said:

Just checked the odds on line. Pretty good, if you've faith in this resurgence. To be fair, if I'd put a fiver on brexit ...

 

Still, 12/1 ... do the bookies know something?

bookies odds mean nothing, I remember last year ladbrokes were still taking bets on people for glastonbury sunday headliner on artists that had been utterly ruled out due to date clash`s....shows how reliable bookies odds are.

[EasyUserName]

11 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

bookies odds mean nothing, I remember last year ladbrokes were still taking bets on people for glastonbury sunday headliner on artists that had been utterly ruled out due to date clash`s....shows how reliable bookies odds are.

Shall we put a fiver on it? I mean, this is business for the bookies. I'm with you, leading up to the brexit vote. Or Trump. Except, for France ... ? 

[GlastoSimon]

7 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

Shall we put a fiver on it? I mean, this is business for the bookies. I'm with you, leading up to the brexit vote. Or Trump. Except, for France ... ? 

Leave was at least 10/1 (or possibly worse odds than that) a few hours before polls closed on the 23rd. Think that was influenced by the 'secret City poll' and their attempts to make some cash off the vote though. 

Still v. suspicious of the polls at the moment mind. Lab still behind too, so a lot of work to do (while the upturn has been v.good)

[fowls]

2 minutes ago, GlastoSimon said:

Leave was at least 10/1 (or possibly worse odds than that) a few hours before polls closed on the 23rd. Think that was influenced by the 'secret City poll' and their attempts to make some cash off the vote though. 

Still v. suspicious of the polls at the moment mind. Lab still behind too, so a lot of work to do (while the upturn has been v.good)

Same. I feel the media are enjoying it being a touch more even in the run up, but the hype will probably die in the last week when the circus is nearing the end and it all gets serious.  Maybe I'm jaded, but it all seems too similar to 2010.

[stuartbert two hats]

I watched the actual news on the telly tonight (ITV) and was shocked that most of the stories seemed to be pro-Labour/ anti-Conservative. It's as if a tide is turning.

Shit the bed, there have been so many crazy election results over the last 12 months, isn't it about time the left our share of a big surprise?

A real Labour government? Bring it on, just sack Diane Abbott as soon as possible!

[EasyUserName]

So not so close as to risk a fiver then?

[clarkete]

11 hours ago, eFestivals said:

They continue to function. They just don't do so as fast or as widely as they might do with greater resources allocated to them.

 

The problem is the public aren't being offered "a bit for the NHS but most other things much the same", they're being offered loads more for everything - which the public is likely to see as 'loads more from me' rather than the free that Jezza promises (and falsely, as the IFS now point out as well as me).

I'm intending this to be my last reply on the political subjects.  Your view won't change and neither will mine and as a person who's done a finite amount of preperation thus far, it's potentially going to distract from me sorting my arse from my elbow to make sure I've got everything I need to for 4 glorious weeks time  

For your first point, your view of it continuing to function is a bit rosier than mine, or that I have got from several people I know who work in the NHS.  If you're running a health service and you can't do things as fast then of course sometimes the consequences are grim or at worst needlessly fatal.  You may think that's melodramatic, but there's a low point of funding where they can no longer provide a basic service.

For your last point I agree that they should have been more selective about their ambition, for example pick the two proven vote winners NHS and education and then see what was affordable beyond that.  I can understand that if the labour cabinet sit down and look at whose votes they want to attract they may also find it difficult not to include making committments for students or persioners, hence include student loans, triple lock etc.

[DeanoL]

10 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Nah. There's too many other bits of Corbyn baggage to be dragged out if (rather amazingly) he's not knocked down by this one, and it's not over till it's over.

But if he comes out of this one well he's probably in with a chance for the first time.

I wonder if there is much more baggage? And if this is part of the problem the Tories are having? Corbyn has had two years of negative press from the papers and his own party, they've thrown everything they can at him. Because no-one ever thought he would actually be fighting an election.

There's a hell of a lot of stuff that should have killed him in this campaign: the antisemitism allegations, the links to the IRA... but whenever it comes up it's "oh, that again" rather something new. And sure, dragging them up again will help, but won't have the impact of sitting on it and dropping it during an election campaign.

Whereas May has never been challenged in that way. Fairly trivial stuff thrown at her is making waves as it's actually new "news" rather re-treading old Corbyn ground.

[Mr.Tease]

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I watched the actual news on the telly tonight (ITV) and was shocked that most of the stories seemed to be pro-Labour/ anti-Conservative. It's as if a tide is turning.

 

i think it's actually because the strict broadcasting rules governing election coverage have kicked in- poor tories haven't realised that for one month their old tactics of: feed story to tory newspapers>>>>TV news reads papers in morning and runs with their stories won't necessarily fly because during the election TV news has to introduce this radical notion of 'balanced' and 'fair' coverage. You can absolutely see the difference. Corbyn's media head even said that they're using the broadcasting rules as a main part of their strategy.

[eFestivals]

 

14 hours ago, theevilfridge said:

Yeah, it's what you said.

What you said is not what I said. You've had to keep on making it up. :rolleyes:

 

[eFestivals]

9 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

bookies odds mean nothing,

like the polls...?

 

[eFestivals]

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I watched the actual news on the telly tonight (ITV) and was shocked that most of the stories seemed to be pro-Labour/ anti-Conservative. It's as if a tide is turning.

Shit the bed, there have been so many crazy election results over the last 12 months, isn't it about time the left our share of a big surprise?

A real Labour government? Bring it on, just sack Diane Abbott as soon as possible!

I'll start of by saying I thought Corbyn did much better than I was expecting last night.

I think you might be getting a little carried away. So far all that's been achieved is to put Labour back to somewhere around the gap of it's normal losing position.

But that's also just within one poll, where those who've signed up for polling are more likely to be politically engaged (and where it's not impossible it's been gamed somehow, either - if anywhere would be targeted for gaming it would be yougov).

An Ashcroft poll taken at around the same time - and where he's got better constituency-by-constituency data - reckons a tory majority of 140.

It'll be interesting to see where the polls go in the next few days.

[eFestivals]

5 hours ago, DeanoL said:

I wonder if there is much more baggage?

"Diane Abbot, Home Secretary".

There's plenty of cards they can play that'll have some traction.

[Flysheet]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

"Diane Abbot, Home Secretary".

There's plenty of cards they can play that'll have some traction.

And her anti-terror tactic of talking to their mums...

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

"Diane Abbot, Home Secretary".

There's plenty of cards they can play that'll have some traction.

They'll probably go back to the anti-semitism card at some point. Also, I'm sure a day or two before the election they'll just run a video of all of Corbyn's MPs saying he's shit and should resign, which if they were smart they would have compiled back at that mass resignations thing.

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'll start of by saying I thought Corbyn did much better than I was expecting last night.

I think you might be getting a little carried away. So far all that's been achieved is to put Labour back to somewhere around the gap of it's normal losing position.

But that's also just within one poll, where those who've signed up for polling are more likely to be politically engaged (and where it's not impossible it's been gamed somehow, either - if anywhere would be targeted for gaming it would be yougov).

An Ashcroft poll taken at around the same time - and where he's got better constituency-by-constituency data - reckons a tory majority of 140.

It'll be interesting to see where the polls go in the next few days.

I know the poll have skewed Labour for decades (even when they had a massive majority the polls said it would be bigger) and that it's only gone from utterly impossible to highly unlikely. But that's still better than a couple of weeks ago.

I may be getting excited, but I'm not totally delusional. Still, a chance is a chance.