Don't vote Tory

[zahidf]

Good by Corbyn. Call out May's cowardice

 

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, waterfalls212434 said:

squeaky bum time efests.....you can call this poll inaccurate all you like

sorry, I won't, I'll be too busy laughing at the morons who said you can't believe the polls but are now busy waving polls in my face.

 

[eFestivals]

29 minutes ago, Kashkin said:

Yes - but polling individual constituencies is difficult online, and telephone polling would be prohibitively expensive on a large scale (hence why 'proper' constituency polling is generally only used for specific marginal seats of interest, rather than on a wider scale). 

oh, i'm not pretending polling constituencies is easy - which is precisely why I'm pointing out the things YouGov have said themselves.

 

[waterfalls212434]

Just now, eFestivals said:

sorry, I won't, I'll be too busy laughing at the morons who said you can't believe the polls but are now busy waving polls in my face.

 

im waving a trend in your face and its one you cant deny either.....what makes someone a moron is when theyve spent literally months slating a party and its leader for having `no chance` and being a `crap leader`....and when they turn round and prove you wrong by making big gains popularity wise your still here saying the same bullshit.  Hasnt your pet tory got on yet to defend you? shame eh? 

[arcade fireman]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Good by Corbyn. Call out May's cowardice

 

 

Yeah it would have been a bad idea for Corbyn to miss this. The general perception is May is cold and aloof and this is probably contributing to her decline in the polls. Corbyn is performing better than expected on TV and needs to press home his recent gains. 

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

I may not trust polls by themselves but I do trust trend as trends happen for a reason

PMSL

You only trust them when they say what you want them to say.

You didn't trust them when the trend was pointing out something very different.

Me, I'm happy to accept the generality of what they say at all times, and they're STILL saying that Jezza is a loser. That might change or it might not.

[eFestivals]

Just now, arcade fireman said:

Yeah it would have been a bad idea for Corbyn to miss this. The general perception is May is cold and aloof and this is probably contributing to her decline in the polls. Corbyn is performing better than expected on TV and needs to press home his recent gains. 

Hmmmm .... the other people in that debate will have to turn on Jezza to hold up their own support. 

[Spindles]

I don't think there is value in showing unwavering faith in the result of any given poll, however I think it is fair to look at polling as a whole to see trends.  Of course they are never fully representative but if you take the example of the BBC 'poll of polls' which shows that at the point the election was called Labour's support was it's lowest for decades but in the last couple of weeks has seen a surge, I don't think anyone would disagree that this IS the pattern we are seeing.

I'm old enough to remember 1992, when the polls suggested a Labour victory, when the early results that night showed a Labour victory and when we woke up with a Tory government.  I've always taken the view that the 'shy tory' effect means that any given poll is a few points below reality in that respect.

I wasn't surprised by the last election result, despite much bruhaha about polling.  Sadly it was exactly what I thought would happen, although I clung to hope of a Labour let coalition (as I do today).

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

im waving a trend in your face and its one you cant deny either.

I can't deny what the poll data says and what YouGov make of it, but that's not the version of things you want to accept of it.

 

2 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

....what makes someone a moron is when theyve spent literally months slating a party and its leader for having `no chance` and being a `crap leader`....and when they turn round and prove you wrong by making big gains popularity wise your still here saying the same bullshit.  Hasnt your pet tory got on yet to defend you? shame eh? 

I might be wrong about the no chance.

The crap leadership is still as it was, and the lack of support for anything socialist is more stark than it ever was.

[arcade fireman]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

Hmmmm .... the other people in that debate will have to turn on Jezza to hold up their own support. 

Yeah but I don't think he's got much to fear from Tim Farron. Sturgeon won't want to slag off Corbyn's left wing agenda too much as SNP thrive on being perceived as more left than they actually are. Paul Nuttall is just a joke.

Amber Rudd - well she will be reading from the same Tory hymn sheet but the fact it's not May up there will put the Tories at a disadvantage.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Spindles said:

I don't think there is value in showing unwavering faith in the result of any given poll, however I think it is fair to look at polling as a whole to see trends.  Of course they are never fully representative but if you take the example of the BBC 'poll of polls' which shows that at the point the election was called Labour's support was it's lowest for decades but in the last couple of weeks has seen a surge, I don't think anyone would disagree that this IS the pattern we are seeing.

I'm certainly not - tho the latest from YouGov in today's Times shouldn't be included in that poll of polls (so I hope it's not being) as it doesn't say anything like The Times have pretended via their tweet.

And yep, the surge has been remarkable in UK polling terms, tho Jezza's starting position also was - and so largely it's not unexpected. There's still all of the people who previously voted Labour who need somewhere for their vote to go.

And while there's been that surge, that surge has only put Corbyn to a similar losing position as Miliband had - but without any of the positive polling Miliband had, which didn't hold up in the real vote. The suggestion from past polling data is that similar could well happen this time too.

[blackred]

It's a risky move no doubt but the potential rewards are there, good chance to make the most of the conservative's mistake in attempting to run a presedential campaign around a weak leader. Also a really fucking good chance of Amber Rudd putting her foot in mouth again, something Corbyn has been doing well at avoiding lately.

[eFestivals]

9 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

Yeah but I don't think he's got much to fear from Tim Farron. Sturgeon won't want to slag off Corbyn's left wing agenda too much as SNP thrive on being perceived as more left than they actually are. Paul Nuttall is just a joke.

Sturgeon's greatest enemy is Labour. It's no coincidence she outlined her unflattering view of Jezza just a few days ago.

A good Labourite could easily take her down, tho Jezza probably isn't the guy who'll do it. He generally prefers to not take a shot when there's an open goal in front of him.

 

Quote

Amber Rudd - well she will be reading from the same Tory hymn sheet but the fact it's not May up there will put the Tories at a disadvantage.

I'm not sure the lack of May will have that effect. If the 'coward' narrative had much traction she'd be behind already.

Rudd herself mighty do, but that's a slightly different thing.

Edited May 31, 2017 by eFestivals

[Spindles]

10 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And while there's been that surge, that surge has only put Corbyn to a similar losing position as Miliband had - but without any of the positive polling Miliband had, which didn't hold up in the real vote. The suggestion from past polling data is that similar could well happen this time too.

Indeed, that is pretty much where we are sat today, around a week before the election.  If current polling numbers were to be believed I would expect a result almost identical to the 2015 numbers.  The question is how the actions of the parties over the remaining time effects that and more importantly how this effects those constituency votes where the vote could go either way.

Edited May 31, 2017 by Spindles

[waterfalls212434]

This is a pretty good tactic by corbyn. Not only confirming he'll be at the debate but may now been challenged personally with mainstream media coverage of said challenge. If she accepts shes libel to get torn apart over the tories failing campaign...if she refuses she'll look even weaker and more of a coward then she does already. Can you say 'backed into a corner':p 

 

[DeanoL]

 

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And while there's been that surge, that surge has only put Corbyn to a similar losing position as Miliband had - but without any of the positive polling Miliband had, which didn't hold up in the real vote. The suggestion from past polling data is that similar could well happen this time too.

I'm not sure that's really a thing. When past polling data is wrong, it gets corrected for in future polls. That doesn't mean it can't be wrong in the same way again, because they either didn't correct enough, corrected for the wrong thing, or something entirely different happened that had the same impact.

But the idea that "the polls normally overstate Labour support" doesn't follow. The pollsters are aware of this and will attempt to correct that (as everyone but YouGov has in terms of young people and intent to cast a vote). Unless you think the pollsters aren't as smart as you are?

Doesn't change the fact that the polls could be total nonsense either way but they're not more likely to be wrong in one way or the other because of past performance.

[DeanoL]

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm not sure the lack of May will have that effect. If the 'coward' narrative had much traction she'd be behind already.

Rudd herself mighty do, but that's a slightly different thing.

I'm not sure the narrative with be "coward" - I think it might "complacent" or "lazy" - May can't even be bothered to turn up. We're meant to rely on her to negotiate Brexit and she doesn't even turn up to talk to the country. It's less about being seen to fear Corbyn and more about disrespect for the voting public.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

I'm not sure that's really a thing. When past polling data is wrong, it gets corrected for in future polls. That doesn't mean it can't be wrong in the same way again, because they either didn't correct enough, corrected for the wrong thing, or something entirely different happened that had the same impact.

But the idea that "the polls normally overstate Labour support" doesn't follow. The pollsters are aware of this and will attempt to correct that (as everyone but YouGov has in terms of young people and intent to cast a vote). Unless you think the pollsters aren't as smart as you are?

Doesn't change the fact that the polls could be total nonsense either way but they're not more likely to be wrong in one way or the other because of past performance.

Oh, I know the methodologies have been change to try and cover off the 'shy tory' (or whatever it really is - Labour peeps lying about voting, it is normally) factor, but that doesn't get to mean they've succeeded. They tried to cover it after 1992 too, and failed.

The best polls for Labour are the ones trusting Labour voters words about definitely voting - that's one of YouGov's big changes (not in their poll published today, that's a different thing again), while others are showing a much bigger gap.

I suspect the reality is somewhere between the two - which would put Labour something like 8%-10% behind, which is far worse than Miliband.

My biggest worry remains that Corbyn will decide to take a substantial loss as positive for him as leader.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I'm not sure the narrative with be "coward" - I think it might "complacent" or "lazy" - May can't even be bothered to turn up. We're meant to rely on her to negotiate Brexit and she doesn't even turn up to talk to the country. It's less about being seen to fear Corbyn and more about disrespect for the voting public.

That's you deciding that "May can't be bothered to turn up".

Anyone with a less self-absorbed take on it will be smart enough to realise that these debates work worst for the incumbent because they have something real to be held to account about, while all the others are basically free to make whatever claims they fancy.

May's said what she feels she needs to say about brexit. Her choice to not repeat it in the place where you say she should is not her refusing to talk to the country about it.

People care about outcomes, not fluff. 

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Oh, I know the methodologies have been change to try and cover off the 'shy tory' (or whatever it really is - Labour peeps lying about voting, it is normally) factor, but that doesn't get to mean they've succeeded. They tried to cover it after 1992 too, and failed.

They could also have over-adjusted. Or it's in the middle as you say.

Quote

The best polls for Labour are the ones trusting Labour voters words about definitely voting - that's one of YouGov's big changes (not in their poll published today, that's a different thing again), while others are showing a much bigger gap.

I think it's the other way around - in 2015 all the companies took voters at their word on definitely voting. This year they're all using demographic-based weighting instead. Except YouGov.

Quote

My biggest worry remains that Corbyn will decide to take a substantial loss as positive for him as leader.

A worry for me too. And while I don't buy into a lot of the narrative about how if Corbyn loses, it'll be the fault of those in Labour who didn't support him, if this scenario happens I have no problem in blaming them. They've set the bar so ridiculously low that he can hardly fail to exceed it.

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

That's you deciding that "May can't be bothered to turn up".

Anyone with a less self-absorbed take on it will be smart enough to realise that these debates work worst for the incumbent because they have something real to be held to account about, while all the others are basically free to make whatever claims they fancy.

May's said what she feels she needs to say about brexit. Her choice to not repeat it in the place where you say she should is not her refusing to talk to the country about it.

No I think "May snubs debate" is the sexy newspaper headline and hence will be the story. 

Quote

People care about outcomes, not fluff. 

Yeah sure. That sounds like the world we live in. 

[Keithy]

43 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

im waving a trend in your face and its one you cant deny either.....what makes someone a moron is when theyve spent literally months slating a party and its leader for having `no chance` and being a `crap leader`....and when they turn round and prove you wrong by making big gains popularity wise your still here saying the same bullshit.  Hasnt your pet tory got on yet to defend you? shame eh? 

A trend that happens at every single election, every time between the major parties. The polls start narrowing from when the election is called, all the way up to the election date. He is still miles behind despite the entirely expected narrowing. 

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think it's the other way around - in 2015 all the companies took voters at their word on definitely voting. This year they're all using demographic-based weighting instead. Except YouGov.

I think we've both managed to make what we've said there unclear.

I get what you mean tho, and the YouGov polls (not today's differently-based one) this year are showing the best Labour are likely to get - which is still a very long way short of what's needed.

 

 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

No I think "May snubs debate" is the sexy newspaper headline and hence will be the story. 

except it didn't hurt Slimy Dave. 

Basing the future of the country on whether a leader satisfies 'your' demand about something not particularly important is one for the sparrows (tho I'll happily admit there's plenty of sparrows).

 

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah sure. That sounds like the world we live in. 

 .... there's plenty that get taken in by fluff, tho that's more likely at one end of the demographic than the other, and where there's far fewer to be swayed in that demographic.

My point is that I reckon you';re putting far FAR to much weight on that 'coward' thing. The place where it works is with those who don't need it to work because they're already rejected May.

[swede]

29 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

This is a pretty good tactic by corbyn. Not only confirming he'll be at the debate but may now been challenged personally with mainstream media coverage of said challenge. If she accepts shes libel to get torn apart over the tories failing campaign...if she refuses she'll look even weaker and more of a coward then she does already. Can you say 'backed into a corner':p 

 

He's been playing a blinder tbh. 

If she doesn't show after the "alone and naked" comment it would be very easy to point out that the torys are a bit worried 

Btw a male leader of an opposition party would have been crucified if that comment was made towards her 

Edited May 31, 2017 by swede