Don't vote Tory

[Keithy]

16 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

May can't even be bothered to turn up. 

Doesn't need to. Absolutely no benefit for her to do it, only risk. Massive election lead despite a low key campaign, why risk a live TV debate where she might make a catastrophic error? The Tories haven't even bothered to wheel out the whole cabinet to support the electioneering , they've left it just to May. Absolutely no need to expose themselves to risk. Whether you think she should turn up is a different matter.

Corbyn is doing it as he needs to take the risk, he's nothing to lose now. 7 day's out, he needs a hail mary pass to try and make up at least 4 or 5 percentage points. If he pulls off a barnstorming performance, he might make more of a dent. If he's poor then, well, he's already 7-9 percentage points behind as it is.

[p.pete]

57 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Hmmmm .... the other people in that debate will have to turn on Jezza to hold up their own support. 

I'm interested to see how it turns out.  If there was no tory on stage, then absolutely Jezza would be turned on by all.  As is I'd expect the one Tory to be fairly rabid towards him, but I'm interested to see where the balance of vitriol is directed.

[sime]

Her not taking the risk makes her look weak and showing contentment to the voting public to me, regardless of whether she really needs to take part or not. I'm really pleased that Jeremy has decided to join the debate. He has no choice really but he could have still sent someone else. Good on him.

[blackred]

Agree that there is no reason for May to turn up, she isn't winning new voters at this point so has nothing to gain.

Interesting that they are sending Amber Rudd though, I thought they would send someone more strong and stable to represent the party, live broadcasting of a hate crime, sorry 'non-crime hate incident', could definitely lose them some votes (who am i kidding, would probably get them the last few kipper holdouts).

[DeanoL]

20 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

My point is that I reckon you';re putting far FAR to much weight on that 'coward' thing. The place where it works is with those who don't need it to work because they're already rejected May.

Like I mention, it's really not the "coward" thing but the "lazy" thing. People want to see their politicians trying. You look at the hate riled up against immigrants and the poor and how much of it is "they're lazy" "they don't work" (except when they're taking our jobs). "Lazy" is a really emotive word in our social consciousness right now which is why I think it's a really bad look for May.

Might still be overestimating it, true, but I guess we will find out. I'd be amazed if the main story of the debate isn't her no-show.

[arcade fireman]

38 minutes ago, Keithy said:

A trend that happens at every single election, every time between the major parties. The polls start narrowing from when the election is called, all the way up to the election date. He is still miles behind despite the entirely expected narrowing. 

In all fairness the elections usually move in favourof the incumbent the closer we get. But you can't really draw parallels between this election and others. Agree Corbyn is still a fair way behind though - people who wrote polls off as being Tory conspiracies and not worth paying attention to are suddenly hanging on YouGov's every word and ignoring the other polls. 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

People want to see their politicians trying

less so than they want to see them succeeding.

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

You look at the hate riled up against immigrants and the poor and how much of it is "they're lazy" "they don't work" (except when they're taking our jobs).

Entirely different from one angle, or much the same .... haters hating the thing they hate, and then sticking a label on it to justify their pre-existing hate.

They're both driven by the irrational-rational, and not the rational-irrational that would be necessary for May's no-show to lose her votes by itself, without those people already having a dislike of her.

(yep, that 'irrational-rational' and vice versa is irrational  ... I couldn't think how else to put it. It does make sense, sort of)

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

"Lazy" is a really emotive word in our social consciousness right now which is why I think it's a really bad look for May.

if it was that big a deal there'd be huge numbers deciding their laziness disqualified them from being able to make a rational vote.

9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Might still be overestimating it, true, but I guess we will find out. I'd be amazed if the main story of the debate isn't her no-show.

that'll only be the main story if there's nothing else comes from the debate - and it won't be as big a story as anything that might come from the debate. May not attending is old news.

 

 

[Mr.Tease]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Nope, that's a basic tenet of bad researchers. And you only know bad ones from what you say.

I know with certainty that internal govt-level research wasn't that shit 2 decades ago.

Its inherent in all research, though to different extents, it's a common, established thing 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1126323/

 

[Mr.Tease]

5 hours ago, Keithy said:

Doesn't need to. Absolutely no benefit for her to do it, only risk. Massive election lead despite a low key campaign, why risk a live TV debate where she might make a catastrophic error? The Tories haven't even bothered to wheel out the whole cabinet to support the electioneering , they've left it just to May. Absolutely no need to expose themselves to risk. Whether you think she should turn up is a different matter.

Corbyn is doing it as he needs to take the risk, he's nothing to lose now. 7 day's out, he needs a hail mary pass to try and make up at least 4 or 5 percentage points. If he pulls off a barnstorming performance, he might make more of a dent. If he's poor then, well, he's already 7-9 percentage points behind as it is.

Its a huge risk/ low reward for Corbyn - if he does well the tory press will ignore it/make shit up (see last leadership interviews), if he has a howler or two we'll never hear the end of it. The number of people reading about it will likely outnumber the amount of people watching it directly.

Still, I guess the reasoning is that we've lost anyways so may as well try a gamble.

I will be too nervous to watch! 

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Its inherent in all research, though to different extents, it's a common, established thing 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1126323/

 

I don't particularly disagree with what that says, but that's not about all research, but a very self-driven/self-fulfilled and so self-serving kind.

Anyway, side-topic. 

[Jamie D]

Sent off my postal vote today. For the first time in my life I have voted Labour.

I usually vote lib dem but I'm afraid they just haven't got the slightest chance of making a dent this year and they annoyed me in the pub a few weeks ago.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Jamie D said:

and they annoyed me in the pub a few weeks ago.

proper party swapping stuff, interrupting a beer. The bastards.

[Jamie D]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

proper party swapping stuff, interrupting a beer. The bastards.

Basically, we were sat there first. Then the local Lib dem meeting started gathering around us. A lady looking for a seat asked me if I was a Liberal. I said "well yes in a way. I've voted lib dem most of my life". She said "but you're not in this meeting?". I said "no, I guess we'll move then....".

I would have expected at least some kind of engagement based on the fact I said I've consistently voted for them. Ironically they lost a vote looking for a seat 

 

[Mr.Tease]

29 minutes ago, Jamie D said:

Sent off my postal vote today. For the first time in my life I have voted Labour.

I usually vote lib dem but I'm afraid they just haven't got the slightest chance of making a dent this year and they annoyed me in the pub a few weeks ago.

Good stuff! I sent off my postal vote last week- quite a strange fiddley form, didn't you think? 

[Zoo Music Girl]

19 minutes ago, Jamie D said:

Basically, we were sat there first. Then the local Lib dem meeting started gathering around us. A lady looking for a seat asked me if I was a Liberal. I said "well yes in a way. I've voted lib dem most of my life". She said "but you're not in this meeting?". I said "no, I guess we'll move then....".

I would have expected at least some kind of engagement based on the fact I said I've consistently voted for them. Ironically they lost a vote looking for a seat 

 

Amazing I usually vote Lib Dems too. Just really struggling with whether to vote Labour or not to keep the Tories out this time. I think it'll be fine in my constituency. Tough one though.

[Jamie D]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Good stuff! I sent off my postal vote last week- quite a strange fiddley form, didn't you think? 

Put paper B in to envelope P, then put envelope Z in to envelope R and folder paper N in to an origami shape of the candidate you're voting for and seal everything in to envelope Y. Then read the instructions on the outside of envelope Y which will tell you something you've forgotten to do but now it's too late.  

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, Jamie D said:

Put paper B in to envelope P, then put envelope Z in to envelope R and folder paper N in to an origami shape of the candidate you're voting for and seal everything in to envelope Y. Then read the instructions on the outside of envelope Y which will tell you something you've forgotten to do but now it's too late.  

Ha, you're right- easy peasy! 

[Amy Lawn]

Amber Rudd: "Judge us on our record"

*Raucous laughter*

That was my favourite bit

[mjsell]

9 minutes ago, GETOFFAMYLAWN said:

Amber Rudd: "Judge us on our record"

*Raucous laughter*

That was my favourite bit

In general this is an utter shambles. But I am enjoying the complete disdain towards Paul fucking Nuttal. 

[DeanoL]

Is this really as one sided as it is in my head?

[Amy Lawn]

Election season always makes me think "well it's high time I leave this shithole and get off to Canada", and then Glastonbury comes around afterwards and I change my tune.

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Is this really as one sided as it is in my head?

I don't know how but corbyn supporters are very good at somehow making up 70% of any TV debate audience in which Corbyn features!

Probably the tory press will push the lines that it was a squabble and rudd 'held up well' then some will say May was wise to not turn up as it was a waste of time.

I have no idea how undecideds viewed it though, I'm far too biased! 

[Mr.Tease]

And right on cue, the Sun pushes Rudd is a hero line because her dad died on Monday and she still did the debate. Personally I think that makes May look worse. 

[Crazyfool01]

I'm going to rate the leaders in order of how well I think they did ... 

1) Caroline lucas 

2) Jeremy corbyn 

3) Leanne wood 

4) Angus robertson 

5) Tim farron 

6) the puppet 

7) Paul Nutty 

 

[DeanoL]

Even Nuttal seemed to be more present than Rudd.