Don't vote Tory

[RichardWaller]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

It doesn't matter. It's a public forum, with an ongoing convo of more than just you and me.

Someone posted (paraphrased) "opinion not allowed".
I posted something back.
you posted to my post.
I posted again.

That "I posted again" post quoted you, but was a continuation of the ongoing conversation from before you stepped in, because you stepped in on the very response I made back to "opinion not allowed".

It was a conversation involving more than just you. Got it? 

FFS.

"Paraphrased" being the key word there, cos they didn't say or imply that at all. They suggested, and reasonably so in my opinion, that we'd be better off having pops at the Tories. And course it does matter if you're telling me that I'm saying what someone else hasn't actually said, or were you telling other people they were saying things they hadn't said too?

And you say READ, FFS to me... 

 

[siblin]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

That's unlikely I reckon.

For example, Bath looks like a strong LibDem possibility. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they regained more than one of the seats they lost to the tories further into the SW too.

I hope so, and i think so too.  

Playing with the model, assuming labour popularity cannot go higher than 30%, the only chance of avoiding a huge tory majority is a dip in their support (to <37%) and a massive upturn in the liberal fortunes to the tune of about 30 seats.  As a northern labour supporter, I'm placing a lot of my hope in southern liberals!

[RichardWaller]

13 minutes ago, Respectfatfrog said:

Out of order I'm not Neil's biggest fan (no offense mate) but I respect the fact he runs this service for us and allows you to have this debate have a pop at his opinions by all means but don't knock how he runs this site he does a cracking job.  

In my experience of forums, mods have tended to try to restore conflict, they've been diplomatic, respectful and made some effort to be fair and non-abusive. Neil is antagonistic, he's telling me I'm saying things I'm not to suit my argument and on top of that he's taken personal swipes at my intelligence. Not really what I'd expect from a mod at the best of times, least of all on a page that says "Experience the spirit of Glastonbury all year round" on it. 

Edited April 20, 2017 by RichardWaller

[clarkete]

24 minutes ago, siblin said:

or it just needs a moderate drop in Labour support.  What we've already seen since 2015 would be more than enough

Drop in labour support and for those people to go green.

I believe many of those in Bristol I know who supported the greens last time would probably vote for labour this time.

I still think, if you look at their previous results, to win it would be a phenomenal achievement and two years ago I knew a few vocal supporters of the greens.  Certainly those same folks are sympathetic to them now, but they're not all advocating that we should vote green any longer.

BTW.  @eFestivals  Seems it's true that they were one of the most strongly remain constituencies - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016#Result_by_constituency

 

[cazzatron]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

Not sure about that. I reckon they have a strong chance in Bristol West.

I hope you are correct!

[siblin]

Just now, clarkete said:

Drop in labour support and for those people to go green.

I still think, if you look at their previous results, to win it would be a phenomenal achievement and two years ago I knew a few vocal supporters of the greens.  Certainly those same folks are sympathetic to them now, but they're not all advocating that we should vote green any longer.

 

.. Or for those people to stay at home.  The Greens were the 2nd party in 2015 after all.  

I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, just not beyond the realms of possiblity.  Thats a really interesting constituency and probably a 4 horse race.  It could go any way but the greens are 2nd or 3rd most likely in that list, with probably a >25% chance.  I'm just saying i wouldn't offer my £50   

[eFestivals]

16 minutes ago, RichardWaller said:

"Paraphrased" being the key word there, cos they didn't say or imply that at all. They suggested, and reasonably so in my opinion, that we'd be better off having pops at the Tories. And course it does matter if you're telling me that I'm saying what someone else hasn't actually said, or were you telling other people they were saying things they hadn't said too?

And you say READ, FFS to me... 

Oh, fair enough, you don't get it.

[RichardWaller]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Oh, fair enough, you don't get it.

Aye, I get it. You won't accept when you're wrong, you won't apologise, you cast personal aspersions on people. You're a bully.

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, siblin said:

I hope so, and i think so too.  

Playing with the model, assuming labour popularity cannot go higher than 30%, the only chance of avoiding a huge tory majority is a dip in their support (to <37%) and a massive upturn in the liberal fortunes to the tune of about 30 seats.  As a northern labour supporter, I'm placing a lot of my hope in southern liberals!

I think there's going to be more tactical voting in play this time than other elections, so I'm not sure that that sort of flat modelling is particularly useful.

I wouldn't be hugely surprised if there was a hung parliament, cos the libs should have a better bounceback in the places they lost last time.

I even think Labour's vote might be better than expected (tho perhaps more in individual seats than UK-wide), with lots of people ending up giving them their vote on a "it doesn't matter cos they won't win" basis.

Having said that, I'm not expecting a hung parliament - but I still wouldn't be surprised.

What i do think is more possible is that how the vote comes out won't necessarily be the shining endorsement of May that she's said the election needs to be - because even if the tories end up with more seats over-all, if a number of tory Mps lose their seats (say, to the libdems) then it gets difficult for her to claim as that endorsement.

The thing i'm most wanting most is the combined tory/UKIp vote to be less than in 2015, and preferably under 50% ... which I don't think impossible.

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, RichardWaller said:

Aye, I get it. You won't accept when you're wrong, you won't apologise, you cast personal aspersions on people. You're a bully.

No.

You've failed to understand a conversation that was a conversation of more than just you and me. You're now the one casting aspersions - wrongly - and attempting to bully an apology out of me that's not due to you.

Whether you're really so offended or if it's because you felt foolish about some of what you didn't know I've yet to work out.

Edited April 20, 2017 by eFestivals

[eastynh]

 I am not voting. On the 8th June I am going to stay in bed as I believe that will be a more productive use of my time.

I would never ever vote Tory,  yet the problem I have is that no party seems to appeal to my left of centre views. Manchester City council are awful. They do what they want and totally ignore what the people of the City want. They know Manchester is as safe a seat as you can get, so they just take the piss.

They can all do one, I am staying in bed.

[siblin]

7 minutes ago, eastynh said:

 I am not voting. On the 8th June I am going to stay in bed as I believe that will be a more productive use of my time.

I would never ever vote Tory,  yet the problem I have is that no party seems to appeal to my left of centre views. Manchester City council are awful. They do what they want and totally ignore what the people of the City want. They know Manchester is as safe a seat as you can get, so they just take the piss.

They can all do one, I am staying in bed.

I urge you to spoil your ballot as an alternative.  The message of "You're all cretins" is better than "I can't be bothered"

[eastynh]

4 minutes ago, siblin said:

I urge you to spoil your ballot as an alternative.  The message of "You're all cretins" is better than "I can't be bothered"

Some good come from it, you reminded me about a song I have always loved

The Charlatans get stick on here for some reason but they were actually pretty damn good and they have some quality tunes.

[Untz]

7 minutes ago, siblin said:

I urge you to spoil your ballot as an alternative.  The message of "You're all cretins" is better than "I can't be bothered"

I support this. I spoilt my ballot at the last GE, may do so again this year. It feels pretty pointless, but if everyone who didn't vote because they didn't like the options or because they think politics as a whole is shit went and spoilt their ballot then the numbers would be large enough for people to take notice. With small numbers you're just sort of lumped in with the idiots who can't mark the paper correctly.

[clarkete]

27 minutes ago, eastynh said:

 I am not voting. On the 8th June I am going to stay in bed as I believe that will be a more productive use of my time.

I would never ever vote Tory,  yet the problem I have is that no party seems to appeal to my left of centre views. Manchester City council are awful. They do what they want and totally ignore what the people of the City want. They know Manchester is as safe a seat as you can get, so they just take the piss.

They can all do one, I am staying in bed.

Errr....it's not a council election is it?

[eastynh]

Just now, clarkete said:

Errr....it's not a council election is it?

Same shit, different day.

[Sasperella]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

That's unlikely I reckon.

For example, Bath looks like a strong LibDem possibility. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they regained more than one of the seats they lost to the tories further into the SW too.

Yeh I was just going to say, Bath's been lib dem since the 90's, until the mix of Don Foster stepping down and the lib deb collapse sent it blue again (the saddest thing about the last election, other than Charles Kennedy  ). So, given that I'm sure it was relatively pro-remain, I reckon they'd have a good chance of claiming it back.

[clarkete]

1 minute ago, Sasperella said:

Yeh I was just going to say, Bath's been lib dem since the 90's, until the mix of Don Foster stepping down and the lib deb collapse sent it blue again (the saddest thing about the last election, other than Charles Kennedy  ). So, given that I'm sure it was relatively pro-remain, I reckon they'd have a good chance of claiming it back.

They had a special report about Bath on newsnight last night.  As one of the pro remain constituencies then they expect the current tactics to go down well, but they expect less so in pro leave constituencies such as Wells or Taunton Deane.

[Sasperella]

Just now, clarkete said:

They had a special report about Bath on newsnight last night.  As one of the pro remain constituencies then they expect the current tactics to go down well, but they expect less so in pro leave constituencies such as Wells or Taunton Deane.

Oh interesting...I might see if I can find that online!

[kingbadger]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

What i do think is more possible is that how the vote comes out won't necessarily be the shining endorsement of May that she's said the election needs to be - because even if the tories end up with more seats over-all, if a number of tory Mps lose their seats (say, to the libdems) then it gets difficult for her to claim as that endorsement.

The thing i'm most wanting most is the combined tory/UKIp vote to be less than in 2015, and preferably under 50% ... which I don't think impossible.

I'm interested in politics, not as much as yourself and others on here, but this is the interesting thing for me here. May has backed herself into a corner by saying she wants a mandate before Brexit negotiations, but what exactly does that constitute? Sure the Tories will increase their majority unless something drastic or a miracle happens, but with a surge in support of tactical voting I can see there being a lot less in the way of Tory gains, with the Lib Dems picking up seats from the Tories as a result of tactical voting and the Brexit stance. As you say, would under 50% of the combined vote really be a mandate for a Tory Brexit? If the Libs make big gains on a pro EU/anti hard-Brexit campaign, then surely this weakens the so-called mandate May is hoping for? I'm resigned to a Tory government but I can see the result being far closer than people and the Tories are expecting, and there won't be enough Tory gains for a valid 'mandate'.  

[clarkete]

18 minutes ago, Untz said:

I support this. I spoilt my ballot at the last GE, may do so again this year. It feels pretty pointless, but if everyone who didn't vote because they didn't like the options or because they think politics as a whole is shit went and spoilt their ballot then the numbers would be large enough for people to take notice. With small numbers you're just sort of lumped in with the idiots who can't mark the paper correctly.

You'd be better off just going to see your MP when they hold a surgery in the constituency and telling them what your concerns are.  They get paid to listen/put up with it.

As for the options, I'm not saying this is relevant, but it is at least vaguely amusing - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-cant-understand-why-there-isnt-a-political-party-just-for-him-20170420126296

[clarkete]

5 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

Oh interesting...I might see if I can find that online!

here you go... http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08n96jp/newsnight-19042017

[arcade fireman]

3 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

I'm interested in politics, not as much as yourself and others on here, but this is the interesting thing for me here. May has backed herself into a corner by saying she wants a mandate before Brexit negotiations, but what exactly does that constitute? Sure the Tories will increase their majority unless something drastic or a miracle happens, but with a surge in support of tactical voting I can see there being a lot less in the way of Tory gains, with the Lib Dems picking up seats from the Tories as a result of tactical voting and the Brexit stance. As you say, would under 50% of the combined vote really be a mandate for a Tory Brexit? If the Libs make big gains on a pro EU/anti hard-Brexit campaign, then surely this weakens the so-called mandate May is hoping for? I'm resigned to a Tory government but I can see the result being far closer than people and the Tories are expecting, and there won't be enough Tory gains for a valid 'mandate'.  

You're underestimating how many seats the Tories will take off Labour. Even an increased majority of 15-20 more will be enough to claim a mandate in Parliament and would make life easier for May. But they'll take at least 40-50 seats off Labour.

Best hope is that Tories don't take quite as many from Labour and the Lib Dems win a few off them. That might make a Lib-Lab coalition in 2022 at least a threatening possibility for the Tories. 

[Sasperella]

 

9 minutes ago, clarkete said:

here you go... http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08n96jp/newsnight-19042017

Perfect, thank you  Bath has a special place in my heart, and was actually the first place I was ever able to vote, so I took it quite personally when it went torie!

[Untz]

3 minutes ago, clarkete said:

You'd be better off just going to see your MP when they hold a surgery in the constituency and telling them what your concerns are.  They get paid to listen/put up with it.

As for the options, I'm not saying this is relevant, but it is at least vaguely amusing - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-cant-understand-why-there-isnt-a-political-party-just-for-him-20170420126296

Oh I agree, but that doesn't solve the problem of polling day.

I might not spoil it this time - I moved into this constituency 6 months ago so I've not looked too much into the options and potential candidates. Last time I either didn't like the party, didn't like the candidate or didn't like Nick Clegg's grovelling for votes. I also had the "luxury" of living in a safe seat (as I do now) so it didn't matter really (which is part of the problem). I've properly voted in every other election (including the 2010 GE).