Not a bad list, and a decent start to the discussion. The Adrianne Lenker album is a fair bit too high in my opinion, mainly because of the disastrously poor opener, probably enough on its own to discount it entirely even if the rest of it is very good. I'd have Michael Kiwanuka and Jordan Rakei in there, maybe Leon Bridges as well depending on my mood. Can't quibble with the No1 though.
they will physically be there on the farm, there's no doubt in my mind - whether they play or not is another thing. What you've written is exactly what makes me think they won't play. Though, I wouldn't put it past them to show up unannounced at Strummerville or something at 3am and play a short acoustic set.