The International Contingent

[MaxPower]

On 6/26/2021 at 3:56 AM, kalifire said:

I’m confident the festival will happen next year, and pretty confident of being there. Australia’s said borders will open by “mid-2022” but I think realistically they’re going to open for vaccinated travellers earlier than that. Maybe early 2022. I’m not going to book anything at this stage though - I’ll wait until later in the year when it becomes more obvious. 

 

On 7/30/2021 at 10:24 AM, kalifire said:

So the Australian PM has today announced a vaccination target plan agreed with health officials and State premiers, which basically requires the entire country (and each individual State) to reach a 70% vaccination rate before anything significant changes (i.e. they adopt a different mindset about cases and lockdowns).

But international travel won't re-open until 80% of the country have been fully vaccinated.

We're currently on 14%.

A UK christmas in 2021 has now all but flown out of the window, but we receive a huge increase in vaccination supply in September/October, so I'm more confident about next June.

I’m planning on moving from UK to Australia in early 2022, and obviously concerned about being able to get back for the festival in June. How much do you pay for flights in a normal year, and how challenging do you find it logistically? Do you book a hotel and stuff for the Monday?

[The other Bellboy]

I'm not convinced travel from NZ will be easy for any of us next year, i've seen something about the quarantine facilities being around for years and there's definately a fear with the current government about taking any risks. I think we will be able to fly to the UK by June but unless the UK infection rate has gotten really low there will be a need to do the 14 days in isolation on return. Will make any trip expensive on both cash and holiday allowances. I can see maybe 50% of people getting vacinated here and with no heard immunity there will still be a lot of fear and restrictions for a long time. i hope i'm wrong because i would dearly love to be on the farm next year - seeing all of the worthy pastures camping pictures is making me miss the place more than ever!

[BlackZeppelin]

On 6/26/2021 at 12:56 PM, kalifire said:

I’m confident the festival will happen next year, and pretty confident of being there. Australia’s said borders will open by “mid-2022” but I think realistically they’re going to open for vaccinated travellers earlier than that. Maybe early 2022. I’m not going to book anything at this stage though - I’ll wait until later in the year when it becomes more obvious. 

 I hope you're right Kalfire.

Melbourne just having gone straight back into hard lockdown literally a day after recording zero cases shakes my confidence.

The vaccine resistance here and snails pace roll out makes this 70-80% targets look remote.

The festival is the shining beacon at the end of this dark tunnel,and I just really hope it happens.

 

[kalifire]

21 minutes ago, BlackZeppelin said:

Melbourne just having gone straight back into hard lockdown literally a day after recording zero cases shakes my confidence.

I reckon it’s to be expected. We’ll be in and out of lockdowns like this for the next few months until vaccination levels increase. 

21 minutes ago, BlackZeppelin said:

 The vaccine resistance here and snails pace roll out makes this 70-80% targets look remote.

Technically they could get to 100% by the end of the year at the current rate of one million Pfizer’s being delivered per week, but there’s a ceiling at which things will tail off, as we’re seeing in the US. Some people just won’t take the vaccine. I think that’s why they’re already talking about incentivising vaccination, and affording vaccinated people more freedom to travel will surely be included. 

22 minutes ago, BlackZeppelin said:

The festival is the shining beacon at the end of this dark tunnel, and I just really hope it happens.

I’m with you 100%. I’m fixing a lot of hope on next June, and it’s what’ll get me through a second missed Christmas this year.

At this point, Australia will hit its vaccination ceiling in about five months, and travel to Glasto is ten months away. Vaccination is the game changer and I cannot conceive that international travel will be this fucked by next June. I’m pretty confident we’ll be OK by then 🤞

[BlackZeppelin]

10 hours ago, kalifire said:

I reckon it’s to be expected. We’ll be in and out of lockdowns like this for the next few months until vaccination levels increase. 

Technically they could get to 100% by the end of the year at the current rate of one million Pfizer’s being delivered per week, but there’s a ceiling at which things will tail off, as we’re seeing in the US. Some people just won’t take the vaccine. I think that’s why they’re already talking about incentivising vaccination, and affording vaccinated people more freedom to travel will surely be included. 

I’m with you 100%. I’m fixing a lot of hope on next June, and it’s what’ll get me through a second missed Christmas this year.

At this point, Australia will hit its vaccination ceiling in about five months, and travel to Glasto is ten months away. Vaccination is the game changer and I cannot conceive that international travel will be this fucked by next June. I’m pretty confident we’ll be OK by then 🤞

👍And if it all fails we can mount a futile 2 man protest in May 2022 with "Let us Get to Glastonbury You Bastards" placards 

[Ayrshire Chris]

My daughter and her husband in NZ have just had their first jab so surely that bodes well for international travel? In fact those heading for the farm next year might be on to their booster by then.  Let’s hope you all make it. 

[Mark H]

Promising announcement for the NZ Government this morning. As long as the vaccine holds and the situation in the UK doesn’t deteriorate, travel should be possible without quarantine by June next year. Perhaps we actually will get there!

Still a number of variables at play though, I can’t imagine it’s going to feel likely until around March next year.

[John the Moth]

7 minutes ago, Mark H said:

Promising announcement for the NZ Government this morning. As long as the vaccine holds and the situation in the UK doesn’t deteriorate, travel should be possible without quarantine by June next year. Perhaps we actually will get there!

Still a number of variables at play though, I can’t imagine it’s going to feel likely until around March next year.

Whoop whoop 😁

[kalifire]

23 minutes ago, Mark H said:

Still a number of variables at play though, I can’t imagine it’s going to feel likely until around March next year.

Yeah, I'm anticipating a lot of last minute faff, but if it all comes good, won't it be glorious.

[John the Moth]

Just read the announcement in full. Worst case would seem to be that by June I’d have to isolate at home on return. As I can work from home anyway, that actually is preferable to dragging my arse in to work jet lagged 🤣

[nicnzl]

I am much more confident after this mornings announcement. Still concerned UK might be classed as a high risk country though.

[mpdow2]

On 7/30/2021 at 10:24 AM, kalifire said:

So the Australian PM has today announced a vaccination target plan agreed with health officials and State premiers, which basically requires the entire country (and each individual State) to reach a 70% vaccination rate before anything significant changes (i.e. they adopt a different mindset about cases and lockdowns).

But international travel won't re-open until 80% of the country have been fully vaccinated.

We're currently on 14%.

A UK christmas in 2021 has now all but flown out of the window, but we receive a huge increase in vaccination supply in September/October, so I'm more confident about next June.

Interesting. Is 80% entire population or just Adults. UK is around 90% of all adults but has very low vaccine hesitancy in comparison to Australia. Phizer will obviously help but still think there will be more skeptics in Aus.

Also, has the government accepted that even with 80% vaccinated, that people will still get Covid and people will still die? 

I'm Australian and think the rules blocking me from coming back to visit my family are so draconian I cannot see the light of things reopening in 2022 (be nice if they let double vaccinated people return). I am not following as close as you so perhaps I am just jaded and given up every being able to return home again.  

[BlackZeppelin]

As it stands I think we are 50/50 by next June.

Partially Australia and NZ are the prisoners of their own success in keeping Covid numbers low. 

It is a brave politician who allows the obsessively focused on numbers to increase.

At some point there has to be a trigger to open borders and allow travel. 

I don't really care what they impose on me for coming back in.

I just want them to let me out.

I think if you're vaccinated, there is not much more you can do to play your part,  is there?

[The other Bellboy]

On 8/13/2021 at 11:50 AM, BlackZeppelin said:

As it stands I think we are 50/50 by next June.

Partially Australia and NZ are the prisoners of their own success in keeping Covid numbers low. 

It is a brave politician who allows the obsessively focused on numbers to increase.

At some point there has to be a trigger to open borders and allow travel. 

I don't really care what they impose on me for coming back in.

I just want them to let me out.

I think if you're vaccinated, there is not much more you can do to play your part,  is there?

Literally 2 hrs after getting my first jab, the news started to emerge of the Auckland case and as expected we are in full lockdown mode again. As far as feeling safe goes we couldn't be in a better place but i have doubts that travel from here will ever be easy, just last week they released a plan of how things will be opened up later this year and into next and i hope todays events don't change that too much, people have to be able to travel world wide at some point. I've flown so much over the years, to the point where i never wanted to see the inside of a plane again, but even i'm starting to miss the chance to fly. 

[BlackZeppelin]

16 minutes ago, The other Bellboy said:

Literally 2 hrs after getting my first jab, the news started to emerge of the Auckland case and as expected we are in full lockdown mode again. As far as feeling safe goes we couldn't be in a better place but i have doubts that travel from here will ever be easy, just last week they released a plan of how things will be opened up later this year and into next and i hope todays events don't change that too much, people have to be able to travel world wide at some point. I've flown so much over the years, to the point where i never wanted to see the inside of a plane again, but even i'm starting to miss the chance to fly. 

Snap.

I really don't like the process of those 23 hour flights, but I really hate not being able to do them.

What are NZ saying as far as a plan to open up to travel?

We have been given the vaguest idea that maybe sometime next year something might happen

[kalifire]

17 minutes ago, BlackZeppelin said:

We have been given the vaguest idea that maybe sometime next year something might happen

I'm increasingly confident about next June.

I think we need to look at the data and extrapolate. Right now, 89.5% of adults in the UK have been jabbed at least once. That's a pretty remarkable statistic, especially given there will always be some who can't or won't accept the vaccine. In a few weeks, over 90% of adults will be fully vaccinated. It doesn't get much better than that.

Then let's look at Australia's data. Despite a piss poor start, we're vaccinating at the rate of over a million a week right now, and current forecasting suggests the entire adult population could theoretically be double jabbed by early December. We know it won't be that many, because again there is a lot of vaccine hesitancy and some (albeit much lower) numbers of vaccine refusal. But the latest analysis indicates about 79% of Australia's population are likely to get, or already are, vaccinated.

Contrast that number with ScoMo's plan to re-open international travel to vaccinated people when we reach 80%, and I find it likely that we'll be able to travel to the UK, probably from Q2 next year.

[BlackZeppelin]

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

I'm increasingly confident about next June.

I think we need to look at the data and extrapolate. Right now, 89.5% of adults in the UK have been jabbed at least once. That's a pretty remarkable statistic, especially given there will always be some who can't or won't accept the vaccine. In a few weeks, over 90% of adults will be fully vaccinated. It doesn't get much better than that.

Then let's look at Australia's data. Despite a piss poor start, we're vaccinating at the rate of over a million a week right now, and current forecasting suggests the entire adult population could theoretically be double jabbed by early December. We know it won't be that many, because again there is a lot of vaccine hesitancy and some (albeit much lower) numbers of vaccine refusal. But the latest analysis indicates about 79% of Australia's population are likely to get, or already are, vaccinated.

Contrast that number with ScoMo's plan to re-open international travel to vaccinated people when we reach 80%, and I find it likely that we'll be able to travel to the UK, probably from Q2 next year.

I cautiously agree, but my concern is the hesitancy.

I worry we might get to about 60-65% and it will slow to a crawl.

Unlike those living on the UK that have experienced the full onslaught of Covid (my mate in Liverpool knows 9 people who have died), most people here don't know anyone who has even had it.

There are hesitators and outright Covid deniers in significant numbers.

Hopefully sanity prevails, certainly the lockdowns are spurring it on.

[Ayrshire Chris]

My daughter called us last night from NZ after a dash to the supermarket ! Seems Auckland is back in lockdown. Are they being over cautious? It must be having a detrimental affect on the tourism industry.  We are still hoping for a trip over late 2022. Meanwhile keep the faith and we will see the NZ and Aussie flags on the pyramid field come June. 

[Tartan_Glasto]

If we were on top of our cases the same way NZ are then we could have saved billions in furlough by having short snap lockdowns instead of months of lockdowns which still resulted in over 130k deaths. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

3 minutes ago, Tartan_Glasto said:

If we were on top of our cases the same way NZ are then we could have saved billions in furlough by having short snap lockdowns instead of months of lockdowns which still resulted in over 130k deaths. 

The message my daughter got.  Just think the NZ folk are a bit more compliant and have understood exactly what their PM is doing and why , unlike us. 

[mpdow2]

2 hours ago, BlackZeppelin said:

I cautiously agree, but my concern is the hesitancy.

I worry we might get to about 60-65% and it will slow to a crawl.

Unlike those living on the UK that have experienced the full onslaught of Covid (my mate in Liverpool knows 9 people who have died), most people here don't know anyone who has even had it.

There are hesitators and outright Covid deniers in significant numbers.

Hopefully sanity prevails, certainly the lockdowns are spurring it on.

That is my concern to. Will they get to 80%? Fingers Crossed. Also don't really trust the government even if they get to 80%. People will still get COVID and die with 80% and so far they have shown now signs of accepting that. There is a breaking point though and hopefully this 80% is it. I think if they get to 80%, they will let it roll for a few months to get "real world data" before fully opening up. 

Edited August 17, 2021 by mpdow2

[nicnzl]

6 hours ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

My daughter called us last night from NZ after a dash to the supermarket ! Seems Auckland is back in lockdown. Are they being over cautious? It must be having a detrimental affect on the tourism industry.  We are still hoping for a trip over late 2022. Meanwhile keep the faith and we will see the NZ and Aussie flags on the pyramid field come June. 

It would have a larger detriment on tourism if we didn't lockdown.

I'm sure you're aware of this from your daughter, but it has been 170 days since our last case of community transmission in NZ, the longest streak since Covid began.  We've constantly learnt and adapted from Australia's mistakes so a snap lockdown was the easy call after what has happened in NSW, and even Victoria for that matter.  It took 5 hours from the prime minister finding out about the Covid case, to announcing the lockdown and a further 6 hours for the lockdown to come into effect.

So yes, we may be locked down for a week or two, but then we get to go back to living a relatively normal life, like we have been since May 2020, especially here in Wellington.  Domestic tourism does much better out of that than half arse attempts at lockdown eventually resulting in longer lockdowns.  I have a skiing holiday booked in 3 weeks and I'm more confident of that happening than I am of Glastonbury next year.

[nicnzl]

10 hours ago, The other Bellboy said:

Literally 2 hrs after getting my first jab, the news started to emerge of the Auckland case and as expected we are in full lockdown mode again. As far as feeling safe goes we couldn't be in a better place but i have doubts that travel from here will ever be easy, just last week they released a plan of how things will be opened up later this year and into next and i hope todays events don't change that too much, people have to be able to travel world wide at some point. I've flown so much over the years, to the point where i never wanted to see the inside of a plane again, but even i'm starting to miss the chance to fly. 

Hah I sat down in the observation area, after receiving my first dose, to read the news of the case.  I was just a walk in to see if they had excess stock that day too, which they did.

[The other Bellboy]

1 hour ago, nicnzl said:

Hah I sat down in the observation area, after receiving my first dose, to read the news of the case.  I was just a walk in to see if they had excess stock that day too, which they did.

i remember sitting in the waiting area and thinking - this isn't very Covid safe, as it's packed, but there's no Covid around so its not a problem. It's weird to think now how wrong i was.

Cases now upto 5 overnight, so that will eventually translate to a pretty big outbreak by NZ standards, can easily see it being hundreds and spreading to a few parts of the country. These aren't big by international standards but we really aren't used to it and have generally been scared shitless of the Delta varient. 

Personally i'm ending my current job on Friday and starting a new one on Monday so have now effectively finished the first but still have all the company equipment and a locker in the office and if (as expected) the Wellington lockdown extends i may not get all the new stuff i need for my new job. I'm sure lots of people have been in this sort of situation around the world already.

if i can find a summary of the plans for the opening up of the border i'll post that later. 

[Matt42]

Out of interest. Is this causing any AUS / NZ people to consider emigrating?

We have family in Aus that have seriously considered moving back to London because of this 🙂 do you reckon there will be a flood of refugees from this tyranny?