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Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

Jimbojam

By Jimbojam
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Ayrshire Chris Grand Master

Ayrshire Chris

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

interesting that the op hasn't been on since feb 3 rd .... hope hes ok and hasn't got some kind of virus .... im concerned about him :) 

Probably taking the 14 day self imposed isolation thing a bit too seriously. Could have mutated into a computer virus. I’m typing this with surgical gloves on just in case. 

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Minilla
Minilla

Good morning all. Don’t post much, more of a reader than a writer.  Thought I’d share my personal experience of the outbreak. I’m based in China, in one of the provinces worst hit by COVID o

Sawdusty surfer
Sawdusty surfer

Update. I coincidentally saw them again today. Turns out they could source the hand sanitiser from China after all and actually ordered double the amount!  It will keep for years so no problems there.

waynewdk
waynewdk

All the containment in the country, and all it takes is for an infected illegal immigrant to come by boat and the whole process restarts

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Jakeyboi135 Collaborator

Jakeyboi135

Posted
Posted

Am I personally worried about Coronavirus? Nope

Do I think it could cause glastonbury to be cancelled? Absolutely. 

I think it's not overly likely at this stage as we're still quite far out, but if it does rumble on towards the festival then it would be the sensible thing to do. An outbreak at the festival would leave a lot of people asking questions of why it went ahead and would cause all sorts of issues for it going forward. A remote possibility but still a possibility none the less

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Reckoner Collaborator

Reckoner

Posted
Posted

I'd be more concerned if it was late april at the moment. Still plenty of time for the panic to die down and people who make these type of decisions to get a better understanding of its scope.

For reference Singapore is 2nd to China on discovered cases and at a Code ORANGE which sparked the population to start panic buying rice and toilet paper, but  the Garden Beats music festival (7-10k) is still going ahead.

Of more interest is that Foals are headlining, therefore answering the question that they are big enough to headline in Singapore.

 

 

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eastynh Collaborator

eastynh

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, SloopJohnB said:

Flu kills around 500 people a year in the UK....nothing to worry about....media hype 

So the flu has killed on average, just shy of 10 people per week in the UK over the last year. This has killed 1000 in 4 weeks and also infected over 40K in the same time period. Those are the official figures and most experts believe the Chinese are being economical with the truth.

Not although I agree, this is not the timee to panic, it would also be negligent to dismiss it by comparing it to people falling down dtairs or to the flu. This is a whole different beast and going to the Winchester till it all blows over is not really an option.

It needs calm heads, correct imformation and sensible decisions. What we will see is the media whip everyone into a frenzy and then selfish people totally exacerbate the problems.

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mcshed Proficient

mcshed

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, eastynh said:

So the flu has killed on average, just shy of 10 people per week in the UK over the last year. This has killed 1000 in 4 weeks and also infected over 40K in the same time period.

So 10 people per week in the UK but China is 20 times the population of the UK so you'd expect 200 a week which is clearly comparable to the 250 a week Coronavirus is doing. 

I'm not trying to belittle this as Coronavirus is doing those numbers with a serious effort to contain it but if any UK outbreak can be contained even to the level that the outbreak currently is being reported at in China things will be broadly fine. 

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eastynh Collaborator

eastynh

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, mcshed said:

So 10 people per week in the UK but China is 20 times the population of the UK so you'd expect 200 a week which is clearly comparable to the 250 a week Coronavirus is doing. 

I'm not trying to belittle this as Coronavirus is doing those numbers with a serious effort to contain it but if any UK outbreak can be contained even to the level that the outbreak currently is being reported at in China things will be broadly fine. 

No one knows how remotely true these figures the Chinese are quoting are. There will be lots of disinformation and scaremongering.

It is not worth comparing it to the flu. Yes there are more people in China but each average individual will only come into contact with the same amount of people as people to over here.

As an aside, I am off to China town this morning to have some work done on my tattoo. After hearing some stories about what the people of Chinese descent  have been subjected to because of this virus, I am happy to be down there with them, in my little act of solidarity.

 

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mcshed Proficient

mcshed

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, eastynh said:

It is not worth comparing it to the flu. Yes there are more people in China but each average individual will only come into contact with the same amount of people as people to over here.

Don't be silly, the number of deaths due to flu will be much higher in China due to increased scale just like the numbers for Europe as a whole will be higher than the UK alone. I agree that precise comparisons aren't particularly helpful but 1000 deaths in 4 weeks on the scale of China is ballpark similar to 10 a week in the UK.

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Copperface Community Regular

Copperface

Posted
Posted

Interesting article.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

Fatalities are somewhat irrelevant, as the virus lives by having a lower mortality rate, thereby ensuring a wider spread.

And that is with containment measures,

I'm off to the supermarket to stock up.

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eFestivals Mentor

eFestivals

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mcshed said:

So 10 people per week in the UK but China is 20 times the population of the UK so you'd expect 200 a week which is clearly comparable to the 250 a week Coronavirus is doing. 

I'm not trying to belittle this as Coronavirus is doing those numbers with a serious effort to contain it but if any UK outbreak can be contained even to the level that the outbreak currently is being reported at in China things will be broadly fine. 

1. no one has immunity to nu-corona, so it'll infect many more than flu would in any season.

2. flu doesn't hospitalise 20% of the people who get it.

3. the nu-corona virus kills at about 200 times the rate of flu.

;) 

China gets flu too, so perhaps ask yourself why it needed to build emergency hospitals.

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eFestivals Mentor

eFestivals

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

Do we know if you can get it more than once yet, or does the first infection develop immunity? 

i could be wrong, but I believe that you get immunity to a virus if you get it and survive it. Flu keeps on going round because it mutates, so it's a different virus you get the next time.

So far nu-corona hasn't mutated (as far as anyone knows), so it should be able to be killed-off with containment.

And the latest stats for the first time look like it can be contained, so fingers crossed that holds true.

Edited by eFestivals
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Copperface Community Regular

Copperface

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

i could be wrong, but I believe that you get immunity to a virus if you get it and survive it. Flu keeps on going round because it mutates, so it's a different virus you get the next time.

So far nu-corona hasn't mutated (as far as anyone knows), so it should be able to be killed-off with containment.

And the latest stats for the first time look like it can be contained, so fingers crossed that holds true.

Coronavirus: Can you get it more than once?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51176409?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story

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AlexOvd Proficient

AlexOvd

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Posted (edited)

Don't worry folks. Mr Trump has spoken:

 

😂

pst
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HattersBoy Newbie

HattersBoy

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

Don't worry folks. Mr Trump has spoken:

 

😂

pst

Crap NOW I'm worried!

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mcshed Proficient

mcshed

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

1. no one has immunity to nu-corona, so it'll infect many more than flu would in any season.

2. flu doesn't hospitalise 20% of the people who get it.

3. the nu-corona virus kills at about 200 times the rate of flu.

;) 

China gets flu too, so perhaps ask yourself why it needed to build emergency hospitals.

Cheers pal. I am aware that this has the potential to be something much worse, all I'm saying is of its kept to the level that China are currently admitting to it then it isn't that bad yet. Flu has killed 10,000 in the US this season so do you think it kills more or less than 1000 a month in China? Because of this risk China has done some pretty drastic things to contain it we need to be watchful of how effective that is but right now I'm not too concerned.

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Sasperella Rookie

Sasperella

Posted
Posted

My friend does epidemiological modelling. Despite the fact that he is mentally busy at work (as you would expect), he is exceptionally calm about the actual risk posed by the virus and pretty much thinks everyone just needs to chill out a bit. I'm only going to get worried when he starts losing his shit as well. 

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Crazyfool01 Grand Master

Crazyfool01

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

My friend does epidemiological modelling. Despite the fact that he is mentally busy at work (as you would expect), he is exceptionally calm about the actual risk posed by the virus and pretty much thinks everyone just needs to chill out a bit. I'm only going to get worried when he starts losing his shit as well. 

Keep us updated ... many on here like to know about shit 

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