Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[5co77ie]

1 minute ago, Quark said:

Are you actually reading the articles?

But Whitty said it was unhelpful to speculate on numbers without strong evidence. He said the fourth strand of the UK coronavirus plan was mitigation, and ensuring the NHS was able to cope.

“The best estimate for the number of people dying at the top end of the range is about 2%; in my view it could be considerably less than that, but we have to prepare for the worst,” he said. It was wrong to speculate on any potential death toll figures, he said. “It is a mistake to use numbers which are entirely speculative … At the moment the numbers we are seeing out of China are so variable that it is really difficult to put a fixed figure.”

Bit different from your 19% everyone's going to die position.

2% of 67,750,895 (as of Thursday, February 13, 2020) is still 1,355,018

[stopwn1981]

3 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

2% of 67,750,895 (as of Thursday, February 13, 2020) is still 1,355,018

And the same estimated death rate as Spanish Influenza, which along with the Black Death is the go to for ‘really fucking bad’!

[Quark]

5 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

2% of 67,750,895 (as of Thursday, February 13, 2020) is still 1,355,018

Current UK population I take it? I'm not questioning whether the impact is bad.  I've said earlier on in this thread that it shouldn't be taken lightly and it's more important than a music festival.  My point is that massively overstating the risk and danger doesn't help with something that needs to be controlled. And so I give you:

2 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

And the same estimated death rate as Spanish Influenza, which along with the Black Death is the go to for ‘really fucking bad’!

Black Death mortality rate estimated 30% - 60%. 

Spanish Flu mortality rate estimated at 10% - 20%. 

Coronavirus mortality rate currently 2.2% (1,370 from 60,410 confirmed cases).

I can only assume now that you're on a wind up.

[squirrelarmy]

Whats the current death rate for Bubonic Plague?

It is still around in less civilised parts of the world. 

[Quark]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

Whats the current death rate for Bubonic Plague?

It is still around in less civilised parts of the world. 

World Health Organisation:

From 2010 to 2015 there were 3248 cases reported worldwide, including 584 deaths

So 18%

[Havors]

58 minutes ago, Quark said:

Current UK population I take it? I'm not questioning whether the impact is bad.  I've said earlier on in this thread that it shouldn't be taken lightly and it's more important than a music festival.  My point is that massively overstating the risk and danger doesn't help with something that needs to be controlled. And so I give you:

Black Death mortality rate estimated 30% - 60%. 

Spanish Flu mortality rate estimated at 10% - 20%. 

Coronavirus mortality rate currently 2.2% (1,370 from 60,410 confirmed cases).

I can only assume now that you're on a wind up.

I have a sneaky feeling that 1370 can be taken with a pinch of salt.... China hiding how many have really died. There has also been a big increase of recorded deaths just of late so its bound to go up. 

That said, like you pointed out its nowhere near the mortality rate of those other diseases.... 

[Quark]

11 minutes ago, Havors said:

I have a sneaky feeling that 1370 can be taken with a pinch of salt.... China hiding how many have really died. There has also been a big increase of recorded deaths just of late so its bound to go up. 

That said, like you pointed out its nowhere near the mortality rate of those other diseases.... 

Absolutely, there's still the possibility of it getting worse and having a higher rate than we're currently seeing.  And that's a sensible conversation.

[Gilb]

Unbelieveable!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/london-coronavirus-patient-turned-up-hospital-uber-taxi

 

You'd think someone with any sense would take the Underground.
So much better for the environment than going by car 😷

[kalifire]

So how does this play out with the option of getting payment protection for the festival during balance payments? I never bother usually, given the caveats make it all but impossible to claim, but if cancellation for this kind of thing is covered, I might just shell out this year. 

[Guest]

I think we need another headliner announcement to calm everyone down.

[Quark]

8 hours ago, kalifire said:

So how does this play out with the option of getting payment protection for the festival during balance payments? I never bother usually, given the caveats make it all but impossible to claim, but if cancellation for this kind of thing is covered, I might just shell out this year. 

It's a good question.  I'd be interested to see whether there's any wording in the protection to exclude this, particularly as it's a known risk going into the payment window.

The other thing that it might fall under is a force majeure event, in which case a lot of those kinds of protections could be considered void.

Definitely worth considering.

[gmb1992]

16 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

I think we need another headliner announcement to calm everyone down.

Agreed... we're running out of things to talk about! 

[Quark]

23 minutes ago, gmb1992 said:

Agreed... we're running out of things to talk about! 

What are you talking about? We're only just getting started on the implications of failure to provide contracted service and the potential intricacies of contract wording around whether it can be considered foreseeable, and what the risks and potential mitigations could be.

This is my jam baby!

[Ayrshire Chris]

Currently laid up, apart from urgent no holds barred sprints to the in house long drop  with norovirus. The result of looking after grandkids with this devils own affliction. Nothing to do  with Coronavirus but as a man I feel I have to look for sympathy wherever I can get it

stormzy has cancelled his Asia leg of his tour. The olympics  are not in danger. Folk beginning to leave the hell cruiseship in Japan, Dominic Cummings looks a right a prick.  That’s a summary of sky news which is my only contact with the outside world. 

Happy Valentine’s Day, I love you all

Edited February 14, 2020 by Ayrshire Chris

[5co77ie]

19 hours ago, Quark said:

Absolutely, there's still the possibility of it getting worse and having a higher rate than we're currently seeing.  And that's a sensible conversation.

This article I think proposes why China, and infected cruise ships have such a high rate of infection - because they kept getting reinfected, so I'd have thought that it should peter out as long as it never gets a firm foot hold in a population where it can repeatedly reinfect people - the advantage of a linked world is that we've had a heads up and should now be able to suppress it taking a hold here.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

[5co77ie]

....and then I read this:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-catholic-church-to-suspend-mass-indefinitely-advises-events-to-be-suspended

[Hugh Jass]

5 hours ago, Quark said:

It's a good question.  I'd be interested to see whether there's any wording in the protection to exclude this, particularly as it's a known risk going into the payment window.

The other thing that it might fall under is a force majeure event, in which case a lot of those kinds of protections could be considered void.

Definitely worth considering.

I wondered before that if in six weeks time there is a genuine question mark over the festival going ahead whether they would open the balance window or delay it until they were certain.

Obviously there is an issue around people needing to be paid in advance but is it better to delay any work until they are certain it's going ahead or to take the money in April only to have to cancel at a later date...

[stopwn1981]

This whole thing is turning into a clusterfuck of epic and global proportions. I still don’t think it’s sunk in that China has effectively quarantined about half a billion people placing them under house arrest. You just don’t do that to the second largest economy in the world for the flu!

 

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

20 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

 that China has effectively quarantined about half a billion people placing them under house arrest. You just don’t do that to the second largest economy in the world for the flu!

 

No, but they do similar out of hand, apparently, to the Uyghurs. in the Xinjiang re-education camps. 

[zahidf]

Unless the other festivals and big gigs start cancelling, I wouldn't be too worried about glasto cancellation 

[oneeye]

Ch4 have got a 30min coronavirus special on at the moment, some alarming stats being thrown around...

 

[stopwn1981]

P

15 minutes ago, oneeye said:

Ch4 have got a 30min coronavirus special on at the moment, some alarming stats being thrown around...

 

Such as?

[Crazyfool01]

I dont want to know ..... back in 5 ...

[oneeye]

2 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

P

Such as?

Potentially 60% global infection 400,000 UK deaths etc.... quite a bleak picture and a feeling that our lords and masters are sitting on their hands 

[stopwn1981]

1 minute ago, oneeye said:

Potentially 60% global infection 400,000 UK deaths etc.... quite a bleak picture and a feeling that our lords and masters are sitting on their hands 

Happy days. It’s defo on its way. At least “the NHS is well prepared” 😂