Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Matt42]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

@Matt42 you can make a reasonable point about there being a high fatality rate based on the data coming out of Italy to build a case for this virus being more deadly than it appears without freaking out and throwing out these cast iron statements when the situation is actually pretty uncertain.

Personally when trying to work out how deadly this thing is, it's worth looking at a few things:

* How long has the virus been widespread?

* What's the current rate of increase in the country? 

* What's the level of testing?

I just don’t trust China as a source. That’s nothing to do with prejudice or panic but from what people in China have leaked to social media and what has been reported in the news. Italy will give us the best impression of what the danger of this disease is. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Yes but is 6% of the confirmed cases in Italy being fatal not a bit concerning? China’s numbers are unbelievably skewed and you don’t have to be a tin foil theorist to realise that. A country like Italy should be presenting a more accurate view of what’s actually happening.

No it’s not concerning, they are giving an accurate view based on the testing they’ve done which is not a lot. You are saying China are being misleading for presenting a lower figure and Italy are being misleading for presenting a higher figure? 

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Did you look at the link myself and @stuartbert two hats posted? Italy aren’t doing extensive testing. 

There’s no way to say this in a non hyperbolic way but I don’t believe China is reporting an accurate number of positive cases. Sorry. Neither are Iran.

[Matt42]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

No it’s not concerning, they are giving an accurate view based on the testing they’ve done which is not a lot. You are saying China are being misleading for presenting a lower figure and Italy are being misleading for presenting a higher figure? 

When did I say Italy was being misleading?

[Guest]

Just now, Matt42 said:

There’s no way to say this in a non hyperbolic way but I don’t believe China is reporting an accurate number of positive cases. Sorry. Neither are Iran.

What about South Korea?

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Matt42 said:

There’s no way to say this in a non hyperbolic way but I don’t believe China is reporting an accurate number of positive cases. Sorry. Neither are Iran.

South Korea are not China.

[Doug85]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

@Matt42 you can make a reasonable point about there being a high fatality rate based on the data coming out of Italy to build a case for this virus being more deadly than it appears without freaking out and throwing out these cast iron statements when the situation is actually pretty uncertain.

Personally when trying to work out how deadly this thing is, it's worth looking at a few things:

* How long has the virus been widespread?

* What's the current rate of increase in the country? 

* What's the level of testing?

 

 

Not to mention the average age of the population in Italy. %'s are difficult to get correct or compare. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

There’s no way to say this in a non hyperbolic way but I don’t believe China is reporting an accurate number of positive cases. Sorry. Neither are Iran.

Do you trust the U.K.? Our current death rate is just above 1%

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

There’s no way to say this in a non hyperbolic way but I don’t believe China is reporting an accurate number of positive cases. Sorry. Neither are Iran.

South korea?

[guypjfreak]

Big jumps.. Not goods.. 

[Mr.Tease]

18 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Why? Surely it's going to be much closer to the country that is leading the way in testing, not in the mid point between a country that's barely testing and a country that's doing a really good job.

I suppose it depends on the demographic spread of the infection- maybe different countries have different rate spreads among different age groups, skewering the results.

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, SomeoneListeningIn said:

What about South Korea?

 

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

South Korea are not China.

who knows about South Korea, but they have a serious issue that their outbreak spread very wide across their country. 

[squirrelarmy]

Just now, Matt42 said:

There’s no way to say this in a non hyperbolic way but I don’t believe China is reporting an accurate number of positive cases. Sorry. Neither are Iran.

I don’t trust the numbers coming from Iran, USA, China or Russia. However I do strongly suspect that South Korea do have the most accurate figures. Give it a day or two and the UK will be joining them as one of the countries with the highest test rates especially as they are now starting to test everyone hospitalised with a respiratory illness and not just people suspected of having Corona. 

[Matt42]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Do you trust the U.K.? Our current death rate is just above 1%

Yes tbh. Obviously there are more people that have it than have been tested for it, but the issue is that we haven’t broken out to the degree of Italy yet. We’re still under 1,000, but we it won’t be long until we reach that. 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

 

who knows about South Korea, but they have a serious issue that their outbreak spread very wide across their country. 

Does that have a bearing on the accuracy of the mortality rate?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Yes tbh. Obviously there are more people that have it than have been tested for it, but the issue is that we haven’t broken out to the degree of Italy yet. We’re still under 1,000, but we it won’t be long until we reach that. 

But breaking out to the degree of Italy is irrelevant, amongst the counties that have tested the most and can be trusted the death rate is around 1% or lower, the actual death rate will be a little lower again than these figures.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Yes tbh. Obviously there are more people that have it than have been tested for it, but the issue is that we haven’t broken out to the degree of Italy yet. We’re still under 1,000, but we it won’t be long until we reach that. 

I'm going to agree on that one - the problem we have is trying to ascertain the mortality of the virus whilst the outbreak is still developing.  One of the reasons it's low here (with our relatively low testing compared to S Korea) is that most of the patients haven't had it long enough to kill them yet.

I know you won't like this, but there's one place with a stable number of cases that are large enough to be statistically significant that's had it for a long time - and that's China.  But you refuse to believe them. And anyway, they don't test enough for my liking.

[Mr.Tease]

29 minutes ago, zahidf said:

This smart ass is in self isolation now 

 

What an absolute twit! 

[Matt42]

8 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I know you won't like this, but there's one place with a stable number of cases that are large enough to be statistically significant that's had it for a long time - and that's China.  But you refuse to believe them. And anyway, they don't test enough for my liking.

Dude on the news right now they are reporting whisteblowers trying to message to outsider media what it’s really like in China and not what China is pretending. Stop doing their censoring for them.

And no this isn’t click bait fake news. It’s on BBC 1 right now. They are removing videos online of people suffering. They were imprisoning doctors for reporting statistics outside of China. 
 

Cases have gone down in China because they’ve stopped giving a fuck about vast swaythes of the country. Weld them in their apartment blocks and leaving them to die. If they take them into hospital it means more cases and more deaths added to global statistics 

I’l trust boris Johnson over China 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Matt42

[TenInchToenaiIs]

Has anyone made a joke about Matt42 needing to self isolate himself from the forums?  

[stopwn1981]

Anyone believe the 3000 deaths in China when Italy on almost 500 in a few days.

[Garrett_Salas]

This thread really took a turn for the boneheaded in the last half an hour

[bombfrog]

19 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

South Korea are not China.

Matt42 is conveniently ignoring this because it doesn't fit whatever stupid point he's trying to make.

[the wonderwhy]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Dude on the news right now they are reporting whisteblowers trying to message to outsider media what it’s really like in China and not what China is pretending. Stop doing their censoring for them.

And no this isn’t click bait fake news. It’s on BBC 1 right now. They are removing videos online of people suffering. They were imprisoning doctors for reporting statistics outside of China. 
 

Cases have gone down in China because they’ve stopped giving a fuck about vast swaythes of the country. Weld them in their apartment blocks and leaving them to die. If they take them into hospital it means more cases and more deaths added to global statistics 

I’l trust boris Johnson over China 

Grow up 

[Matt42]

Just now, bombfrog said:

Matt42 is conveniently ignoring this because it doesn't fit whatever stupid point he's trying to make.

I never mentioned South Korea though I was talking about China being an unreliable metric to base anything off, and Italy should be a more accurate view of what this disease is really like.