Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Matt42]

Just now, the wonderwhy said:

Grow up 

Rough low blow.

[Doug85]

Japan are doing something right judging by this. 

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I never mentioned South Korea though I was talking about China being an unreliable metric to base anything off, and Italy should be a more accurate view of what this disease is really like.

Why ignore South Korea and focus on Italy?

[Toilet Duck]

South Korea have the most accurate numbers, they have a large sample size and have tested extensively. It's as simple as that really. Italy haven't tested enough to give a reliable estimate of their actual infection numbers. The outbreak is still evolving globally, so it's hard to predict exactly where we will finally land, but most expert predictions are for around 1-2% of cases to be fatal and I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise. For those saying that it is mainly killing people who would otherwise die from flu, not really. We vaccinate at risk populations for flu (and it saves countless lives annually), but can't for this (and repeated yearly vaccination also contributes to an underlying immunity to flu in older populations). Try not to panic, take it easy for the next few weeks...

[CJL9494]

Italy’s mortality rate is definitely not the one to go off. Their healthcare system is failing, leading to many more deaths than there otherwise would be.

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I never mentioned South Korea though I was talking about China being an unreliable metric to base anything off, and Italy should be a more accurate view of what this disease is really like.

That's why nobody else* has been discussing China since you brought up the 6% stat in Italy.

* Apart from my offhand comment, but I discounted them as not testing enough.

[Matt42]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Why ignore South Korea and focus on Italy?

Because Italy’s outbreak happened after South Korea’s  and it looks like South Korea have managed to contain their outbreak better than Italy. Yes Italy have tested less people but they have more cases. Most of South Korea’s cases are from the effects of a church sect.

Italy is a better reflection of what this virus really has the capacity to do when it’s out in the wild.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Matt42

[sirjonnyp]

Update for the international crew, quantas have put changes into effect for their Sydney - Singapore - London route, now stopping at Perth instead, with other routes also grounded and capacity decreased: https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-update-on-coronavirus-response/

I think, like me, most of the aus crew are on Cathay Pacific, who are still keeping their routes unchanged for now. 

[stuartbert two hats]

To be honest, China has lots of unusual aspects - they control the flow of people and information in a way that is unlike any other country I can think of at that level of development. I think the picture will become clearer with regards to the full lifecycle of the outbreak when it's better established in other countries.

[TheWaters]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Because Italy’s outbreak happened after South Korea’s  and it looks like South Korea have managed to contain their outbreak better than Italy. Yes Italy have tested less people but they have more cases. Most of South Korea’s cases are from the effects of a church sect.

Italy is a better reflection of what this virus really has the capacity to do.

Italy also has the joint oldest population in Europe and with this disease affecting the older more, so it was always likely they’d have a higher death rate. Italy is a better reflection on what this virus really has the capacity to do in a country with an ageing population.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, TheWaters said:

Italy also has the joint oldest population in Europe and with this disease affecting the older more, so it was always likely they’d have a higher death rate. Italy is a better reflection on what this virus really has the capacity to do in a country with an ageing population.

I wonder if it's possible to get a breakout of the mortality by age and then adjust to a country like the UK.

Not now, of course. I'm in bed!

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Because Italy’s outbreak happened after South Korea’s  and it looks like South Korea have managed to contain their outbreak better than Italy. Yes Italy have tested less people but they have more cases. Most of South Korea’s cases are from the effects of a church sect.

Italy is a better reflection of what this virus really has the capacity to do when it’s out in the wild.

This is just complete nonsense. It’s the same virus regardless of which country it’s in, how it was spread and when it started.

If doesn’t matter if one country has it under control with new cases dropping, and another can’t control it and the case numbers are rising,

[mattiloy]

12 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

Japan are doing something right judging by this. 

Having relatively fewer tourists returning from Italy or Iran probably helps. There has still only been one community transmission here in Sweden so far, in a hospital, the rest have been returning from either Iran or Italy. 

[semmtexx]

China has some good data. State perhaps interested in suppression. Chinese doctors less so. Wouldn't simply discount it. 

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm

 

[semmtexx]

Baseline characteristics Confirmed cases; n (%) Deaths; n (%) Case fatality rate, %

Overall 44,672 1,023 2.3%

Age, years   

　0–9 416 (0.9%) − −

　10–19 549 (1.2%) 1 (0.1%) 0.2%

　20–29 3,619 (8.1%) 7 (0.7%) 0.2%

　30–39 7,600 (17.0%) 18 (1.8%) 0.2%

　40–49 8,571 (19.2%) 38 (3.7%) 0.4%

　50–59 10,008 (22.4%) 130 (12.7%) 1.3%

　60–69 8,583 (19.2%) 309 (30.2%) 3.6%

　70–79 3,918 (8.8%) 312 (30.5%) 8.0%

　≥80 1,408 (3.2%) 208 (20.3%) 14.8%

Sex   

　Male 22,981 (51.4%) 653 (63.8%) 2.8%

　Female 21,691 (48.6%) 370 (36.2%) 1.7%

Comorbid condition†   

　Hypertension 2,683 (12.8%) 161 (39.7%) 6.0%

　Diabetes 1,102 (5.3%) 80 (19.7%) 7.3%

　Cardiovascular disease 873 (4.2%) 92 (22.7%) 10.5%

　Chronic respiratory disease 511 (2.4%) 32 (7.9%) 6.3%

　Cancer (any) 107 (0.5%) 6 (1.5%) 5.6%

　None 15,536 (74.0%) 133 (32.8%) 0.9%

　Missing 23,690 (53.0%) 617 (60.3%) 2.6%

Case severity§   

　Mild 36,160 (80.9%) − −

　Severe 6,168 (13.8%) − −

　Critical 2,087 (4.7%) 1,023 (100%) 49.0%

　Missing 257 (0.6%) − −

Period (by date of onset)   

　Before Dec 31, 2019 104 (0.2%) 15 (1.5%) 14.4%

　Jan 1–10, 2020 653 (1.5%) 102 (10.0%) 15.6%

　Jan 11–20, 2020 5,417 (12.1%) 310 (30.3%) 5.7%

　Jan 21–31, 2020 26,468 (59.2%) 494 (48.3%) 1.9%

　After Feb 1, 2020 12,030 (26.9%) 102 (10.0%) 0.8%

Table 2. Patients, deaths, and case fatality rates, as well as observed time and mortality for n=44,672 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mainland China as of February 11, 2020. Modified from http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm.

It's a bit old now but detailed. 

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

This is just complete nonsense. It’s the same virus regardless of which country it’s in, how it was spread and when it started.

If doesn’t matter if one country has it under control with new cases dropping, and another can’t control it and the case numbers are rising,

60% of cases in South Korea were linked to the church when the total was at 4,000 cases. I don’t know what it is now, but with South Korea there was a direct causal link with a huge majority of cases. Italy is showing a significant degree of community spread. Also we are forgetting the fact that there are now mutated strains of the virus and Italy is still in its early stages of outbreak.

It overtook South Korea in under two weeks. Italy is nowhere near as controlled as South Korea’s situation. 

[semmtexx]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I wonder if it's possible to get a breakout of the mortality by age and then adjust to a country like the UK.

Not now, of course. I'm in bed!

Have posted mortality. Far too late too attempt adjustment!

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Matt42 said:

60% of cases in South Korea were linked to the church when the total was at 4,000 cases. I don’t know what it is now, but with South Korea there was a direct causal link with a huge majority of cases. Italy is showing a significant degree of community spread. Also we are forgetting the fact that there are now mutated strains of the virus and Italy is still in its early stages of outbreak.

It overtook South Korea in under two weeks. Italy is nowhere near as controlled as South Korea’s situation. 

What has any of that got to do with the actual mortality rate?

[whitehorses]

No need for the WHO to bother headhunting or recruiting from fancy universities. Just need to dip in this thread and take their pick of expert epidemiologists. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, whitehorses said:

No need for the WHO to bother headhunting or recruiting from fancy universities. Just need to dip in this thread and take their pick of expert epidemiologists. 

I'm staggered by the amount of confidence on show. It's so fucking complicated!

[semmtexx]

To be fair I'm not sure it's different from usual. People talk staggering bollocks on music, why should it be any different about epidemiology! 

😆

[whitehorses]

@stuartbert two hatshaha yeah! Don’t worry though, I’m sure soon the governments, doctors, policy makers, and transnational organisations will realise that a bunch of stoned festival goers were right all along! 

[kingbadger]

Not an expert but surely the best case example would be the Diamomd Express cruise ship? Seems like they caught the infection late and were then haphazard in taking measures. People eating buffets together, everyone in close quarters etc.

3,618 tested/696 confirmed cases/7 deaths

Of course there are likely still some cases to be diagnosed and perhaps another death or 2. But given how badly the infection/quarantine measures were implemented, surely it should give some idea as to how contagious it is and the mortality rate? Looks like a 1% death rate, all passengers over 70 years old. 

Obviously not great but seems to fall in line with the South Korea figures and is as good of a marker as we have at this stage. It's almost like a mini country had it's own endemic and that was the result. 

[Toilet Duck]

27 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

 Also we are forgetting the fact that there are now mutated strains of the virus and Italy is still in its early stages of outbreak.

Seriously  Matt, you're gonna give yourself a coronary mate! There really isn't "mutated" hyper-virulent strains knocking about. There's one very limited paper suggesting 2 strains exist that makes a massive leap to suggesting that one of them is more "aggressive" than the other (with no real evidence). It's a tiny difference between the two versions and viruses accumulate mutations all the time (they replicate a lot and make mistakes). It's pretty normal for there to be subtle differences from one place to the next. If it's any consolation, really aggressive viruses tend to spread quite poorly...hard to find a new host when the one you are currently in can't move!

[kingbadger]

16 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

No need for the WHO to bother headhunting or recruiting from fancy universities. Just need to dip in this thread and take their pick of expert epidemiologists. 

Posted for the first time in this thread, if there's a chance of missing out in the hysteria of the weather thread I'm gonna get my Gold membership's worth in here.