Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

12 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

@Matt42 and any others scared about the apparent high death rate please read this article. 
 

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html?fbclid=IwAR2GqkqqW4-2G5hFOTw9kdQOAMPoSiS9Wzfow9W1EejbhrsFysLbmP7ZZ50

Good article, it confirms what I’ve thought all along, it’s virtually benign and quite often extremely mild amongst people under 70, and even for those above it only really becomes extra dangerous when coupled with other medical conditions. It’s going to be impossible to stop it’s spread whatever we do, so our efforts will be best placed in protecting those that are vulnerable, not locking the entire country down which will be a waste of time.

This doesn’t come from a place of just wanting Glastonbury to go ahead irrespective of anything else, it’s just common sense.

[jparx]

Potentially positive news from South Korea with lowest numbers of new cases reported yesterday for the last two weeks. Report suggested the number could jump up again slightly but still seems a positive trend.

[Sasperella]

I don't want to post this in the Next Announcement thread for fear of shitting all over their excitement ...but with the news of Coachella and the whole of Italy (all of it!!! Madness!) in lockdown, I really can't see them dropping the poster. A tactical delay would seem wise, but then one would expect it would get worse before it gets better... 

My colleague who works in health reckons by the end of March we could have a similar infection rate to Italy. Hopefully this will start subsiding in late April/May....but is it early enough?

Maybe they just hold the post a back, wait for it all to blow over and drop it mid-May as a prize for us all getting through the other side 🙂

p.s. I also find this whole "China aren't trustworthy and are hiding something" kind of not an ok narrative.

[AlexOvd]

About the insurance discussions 👆

[Freddyflintstonree]

BBC breakfast, Deputy Chief Medical Officer :

 

The Virus won't survive long outside, and outdoor events particularly are relatively safe. 

[Freddyflintstonree]

Even better :

You are actually safer outside at large gatherings than you are at inside. (I'm not kidding, this was on BBC Breakfast just now.) 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Freddyflintstonree
(not at home, inside!)

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Freddyflintstonree said:

Even better :

You are actually safer outside at large gatherings than you are at home. (I'm not kidding, this was on BBC Breakfast just now.) 

Stick

[Freddyflintstonree]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Stick

Apologies, ' inside' not at 'home'! Got a bit over excited. 

[FloorFiller]

Just now, Freddyflintstonree said:

Even better :

You are actually safer outside at large gatherings than you are at home. (I'm not kidding, this was on BBC Breakfast just now.) 

Quick everybody - get to as many festivals as you can, stat! 

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

BBC breakfast, Deputy Chief Medical Officer :

 

The Virus won't survive long outside, and outdoor events particularly are relatively safe. 

thing is, they will still increase transmission compared to everyone staying home.

And I think we might have been mis-reading things thinking that Glastonbury is only at risk during the 'delay' phase. After that comes 'mitigate' which might still see events being cancelled by govt.  

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

Even better :

You are actually safer outside at large gatherings than you are at inside. (I'm not kidding, this was on BBC Breakfast just now.) 

that's true - but you're also coming into contact with extra people, which does help it spread.

[Freddyflintstonree]

Trying to stay positive.. Not easy in this thread! 

[Zoo Music Girl]

Also when they talk about large outdoor gatherings being safer, surely that's more about sporting events/carnivals etc. Not so much five-day camping festivals with no access to hot water. I think Glastonbury is a bit different.

I really think it could go either way. Agree that they might well put off releasing the line-up until after the resale though.

[Jack.194]

I’m sure I read somewhere that daily identified cases in China are now falling? If that’s true (which again, it might not be) then surely it’s a good sign?

If the first few cases in China showed up in January, and cases are already falling by start of March, then if we follow the same trend (which I know isn’t a given) then identified cases should start falling in around May? Which is more than enough for Glasto to go ahead?!

I might be completely wrong, or just positive, just trying to stay optimistic!

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, Jack.194 said:

I’m sure I read somewhere that daily identified cases in China are now falling? If that’s true (which again, it might not be) then surely it’s a good sign?

If the first few cases in China showed up in January, and cases are already falling by start of March, then if we follow the same trend (which I know isn’t a given) then identified cases should start falling in around May? Which is more than enough for Glasto to go ahead?!

I might be completely wrong, or just positive, just trying to stay optimistic!

This is true but China has taken pretty extreme measures to control it. At the moment we are still holding events, letting in flights from Italy etc, so I doubt we have peaked yet. Also can't really see the government taking those kind of measures here.

[Gwladboy]

6 minutes ago, Jack.194 said:

I’m sure I read somewhere that daily identified cases in China are now falling? If that’s true (which again, it might not be) then surely it’s a good sign?

If the first few cases in China showed up in January, and cases are already falling by start of March, then if we follow the same trend (which I know isn’t a given) then identified cases should start falling in around May? Which is more than enough for Glasto to go ahead?!

I might be completely wrong, or just positive, just trying to stay optimistic!

Someone will come in now and tell you that China is very different, they can control and shut off areas which can’t happen so easily here, the population is more obedient, the amount of inter-european travel makes it different and essentially we’re all doomed.

Take your optimism elsewhere mate, you won’t be welcome here.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Gwladboy

[Gwladboy]

Damn, too slow

[Jack.194]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

This is true but China has taken pretty extreme measures to control it. At the moment we are still holding events, letting in flights from Italy etc, so I doubt we have peaked yet. Also can't really see the government taking those kind of measures here.

That makes sense, cheers.

Still it’s good news for the spread of the virus in general, that cases are dropping in China.

Ive thought up until today that the festival would undoubtably be going ahead but really starting to doubt it now

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, Jack.194 said:

If the first few cases in China showed up in January

it was actually early December.

[mcshed]

23 minutes ago, Garrett_Salas said:

I just find it odd that people that are saying they're 100% sure it's going ahead are the level headed ones and that people who are showing concern are doom mongering daily mail readers

I've done a fair amount of poo-pooing doom-mongers in this thread but I've never said I'm 100% sure it's going ahead. We don't know how things will pan out it but there are enough scenarios where it either is fairly well contained here or we are over the worst of it or we recognise that stopping large outdoor events is of limited help that the festival goes ahead. It might be cancelled so far I see no conclusive evidence that it will be. So the best you can do is follow government advice, try not to get caught up in hysteria and stick to the facts. As it stands Glastonbury 2020 is on, saying that doesn't involve sticking your head in the sand.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Just now, Gwladboy said:

Someone will come in now and tell you that China is very different, they can control and shut off areas which can’t happen so easily here, the population is more obedient, the amount of inter-european travel makes it different and essentially we’re all doomed.

Take your optimistic elsewhere mate, you won’t be welcome here.

Sorry yes, I meant to say "you are right, everything is fine and you will still be able to go to your music festival 100% guaranteed"

[squirrelarmy]

I’ve also been looking at the details of the Italian quarantine. It’s not as extreme as it makes out to be. People can still travel for work and for family emergencies. I’m also assuming that they will also need to travel to buy food etc. 
 

It’s not as extreme as the Chinese quarantine and I’m not actually sure if it will make much difference other than severely damaging the leisure and entertainment industries. It may slow down the spread of the virus but it won’t stop it. Is that enough to warrant such extreme measures? 

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The thing I don’t get about either side of the China argument is that aren’t things returning to normal there now as far as lockdowns etc? So yes they took pretty draconian measures to get it under control, but how are case numbers now falling of these measures are no longer in place?

[stuartbert two hats]

53 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I think some people are just trying to remain level headed. Italy are in lockdown for a month, and Coachella is next month. If Glastonbury was next month then yes recent events would make it highly questionable that it was going ahead. But it’s at the end of June.

It's no more level headed to be confident Glastonbury will be fine than saying OMFG Italy! China was lying, we're all going to die.

Both positions seem to be pretty unsubstantiated to me. Glastonbury 2020's future is uncertain, that seems to be the only level headed position to take.

[Mouseboy11]

10 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Also when they talk about large outdoor gatherings being safer, surely that's more about sporting events/carnivals etc. Not so much five-day camping festivals with no access to hot water. I think Glastonbury is a bit different.

I really think it could go either way. Agree that they might well put off releasing the line-up until after the resale though.

I'd be surprised, things like that would just feed into the panic more. I think it'll be business as usual until there's reason for otherwise.