Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Padgey]

4 minutes ago, Quark said:

Correctamundo.  Glastonbury's Ticket Terms and Conditions of Entry:

After 23:59 7th May 2020, no refunds will be made other than in the event of the cancellation of the Festival. Booking fees and postage and packing charges are non-refundable.

Interestingly, and completely the opposite to what I thought, there's nothing in there to give the festival any kind of get out for cancellation due to something like this.  I really assumed there would something in there to allow them some protection for something "act of God" ish, but now I think about it it's more of a question for what insurances the festival holds for itself rather than passing it on to the customers.

Haven't they given refunds for extreme circumstances in the past?  I'm sure they would sympathise in such cases like this, although I'm not sure how many people would be travelling from China to the festival.

[Quark]

3 minutes ago, Padgey said:

Haven't they given refunds for extreme circumstances in the past?  I'm sure they would sympathise in such cases like this, although I'm not sure how many people would be travelling from China to the festival.

So the travel bit is only through the payment protection, which is with a third party insurer. Not down to Glastonbury how that bit's handled.

It would be an interesting view of how Glastonbury balances its ethos with the fact that they've spunked God knows how much money in prep and bookings or whatever to then have it pulled from under them.  You could see them taking an approach that less about sympathy and more about remaining financially viable, depending on how big that hit is.

Theoretical of course, as everything's gonna be fine

Edited February 18, 2020 by Quark

[Hugh Jass]

14 minutes ago, Quark said:

Correctamundo.  Glastonbury's Ticket Terms and Conditions of Entry:

After 23:59 7th May 2020, no refunds will be made other than in the event of the cancellation of the Festival. Booking fees and postage and packing charges are non-refundable.

Interestingly, and completely the opposite to what I thought, there's nothing in there to give the festival any kind of get out for cancellation due to something like this.  I really assumed there would something in there to allow them some protection for something "act of God" ish, but now I think about it it's more of a question for what insurances the festival holds for itself rather than passing it on to the customers.

EDIT: what I did miss in there is some wriggle room in the wording.  Doesn't mention what WILL be refunded in the event of cancellation, so potentially not a full refund,

This is why any cancellation needs to happen before April 1st. It'll be one thing giving everyone their £50 back, but after the balances are paid I imagine that's when the festival starts paying for infrastructure, artists, fences, etc.

Having to give 130k punters £250 back each when they've already started spending that money would lead to all sorts of problems. You'd hope the festival has a pretty robust insurance policy for such an event.

[Hugh Jass]

Accidentally quoted myself.

Edited February 18, 2020 by Hugh Jass

[Quark]

1 minute ago, Hugh Jass said:

This is why any cancellation needs to happen before April 1st. It'll be one thing giving everyone their £50 back, but after the balances are paid I imagine that's when the festival starts paying for infrastructure, artists, fences, etc.

Having to give 130k punters £250 back each when they've already started spending that money would lead to all sorts of problems. You'd hope the festival has a pretty robust insurance policy for such an event.

Oh hell yes.  I don't know the workings of the limited companies behind the festival, but I can't imagine that it would be in a position where something unforeseen would wipe it out in one summer.

A combination of insurances, its own terms with the third party companies it uses, and cash reserves locked away for sneezy days.

[stuie]

 

12 minutes ago, Quark said:

So the travel bit is only through the payment protection, which is with a third party insurer. Not down to Glastonbury how that bit's handled.

It would be an interesting view of how Glastonbury balances its ethos with the fact that they've spunked God knows how much money in prep and bookings or whatever to then have it pulled from under them.  You could see them taking an approach that less about sympathy and more about remaining financially viable, depending on how big that hit is.

Theoretical of course, as everything's gonna be fine

 

Large events, such as Glastonbury, have cancellation protection insurance to cover the costs incurred in set up, booking fees and performer deposits etc.   Boardmasters and Houghton had to claim on theirs last year, so their customers all got full refunds.  

Not giving the customers full refunds would cause such bad PR it would likely be the end of the event anyway - no one would buy a ticket for the next event because of the fear it would happen again.

I've heard that artists generally only get a part payment/deposit on their booking with the balance paid after the performance, so I guess that they would have conditions that if they don't perform for any reason they won't get paid the rest.

 

[northernringo]

I'm starting to compile 'live figures' from this dashboard (following from my post yesterday) - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm looking at total infected for each region, and taking away the deaths and recoveries to get a 'live' total.

Yesterday, the total live cases worldwide was 58,277, today it has increased to 58,480 which isn't that much of a jump. Quite a lot of deaths in China once again but none outside (total deaths outside China is still just 5, One of these was in Hong Kong and another in Taiwan). 1,586 recoveries since I last looked yesterday (mainly China but a few in South Korea).

No newly infected countries.

Outside China, there have just been 3 more reported cases in Hong Kong and 1 more in South Korea.

[jimmillen]

Great work @northernringo - refreshing to see some actual data in amongst the opinions 😉

Latest article from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981 reads cautiously optimistic to me.

 

[5co77ie]

6 hours ago, northernringo said:

I'm starting to compile 'live figures' from this dashboard (following from my post yesterday) - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm looking at total infected for each region, and taking away the deaths and recoveries to get a 'live' total.

Yesterday, the total live cases worldwide was 58,277, today it has increased to 58,480 which isn't that much of a jump. Quite a lot of deaths in China once again but none outside (total deaths outside China is still just 5, One of these was in Hong Kong and another in Taiwan). 1,586 recoveries since I last looked yesterday (mainly China but a few in South Korea).

No newly infected countries.

Outside China, there have just been 3 more reported cases in Hong Kong and 1 more in South Korea.

you appear to be divergent with your data today is 73,450

 

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak#/Timeline_by_month

 

notice how Diamond Princess figures have been taken out of Johns Hopkins dashboard

Edited February 18, 2020 by 5co77ie

[northernringo]

6 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

you appear to be divergent with your data

 

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak#/Timeline_by_month

I provided my source for my data - the dashboard I provided a link to uses these sources Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY.

Which stat do you have an issue with? I've had a brief look at your link and they have a similar active 'count' to me, just short of 60,000

[5co77ie]

2 minutes ago, northernringo said:

I provided my source for my data - the dashboard I provided a link to uses these sources Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY.

Which stat do you have an issue with? I've had a brief look at your link and they have a similar active 'count' to me, just short of 60,000

i can't read that's my issue - total live cases and not total cases - apologies. It's been a long 2 days

 

[northernringo]

16 hours ago, 5co77ie said:

i can't read that's my issue - total live cases and not total cases - apologies. It's been a long 2 days

 

No problem

[northernringo]

Numbers of live infections down in:

China (circa 100)
Singapore
Hong Kong (one additional death though)
Malaysia
Germany ( 12 of their 16 cases now recovered)

Number of live infections up in:

Cruise Ship
Japan (up 7)
Taiwan (up 1)
USA (up 14 who have been relocated from the cruise ship)

Edited February 19, 2020 by northernringo

[stopwn1981]

Looks like South Korea is going to blow up, whilst China change how they report numbers again to lull the population back to work. 

[northernringo]

2 hours ago, stopwn1981 said:

Looks like South Korea is going to blow up, whilst China change how they report numbers again to lull the population back to work. 

Large spike in South Korea over the past 24 hours - 87 now currently infected as opposed to 19 when I checked yesterday. One death now too.

2 cruise ship deaths too but one recovery now as well so hopefully more recoveries on that front soon.

One newly infected country, Iran, but both it's two cases have died (both were old people). No other confirmed cases yet but will be interesting to see how it pans out there.

Few more cases in Japan (5) but hard to know what is happening with the reporting of figures for the cruise ship. I noticed the 14 who have been transported to USA have now gone back into the cruise ship figures.

China's active cases are down around 2000 thanks to over 2000 recoveries since my last check yesterday. Singapore and Macau with slight reductions in their active cases too (solely down to recoveries). Taiwan the only other change with one new case.

No change in Europe, still 16 active cases.

[eFestivals]

18 minutes ago, northernringo said:

China's active cases

I realise they can only count the people who present themselves, but I do wonder how many are getting inflected and keeping their heads down so aren't within the numbers.

[northernringo]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I realise they can only count the people who present themselves, but I do wonder how many are getting inflected and keeping their heads down so aren't within the numbers.

Yea, there is no exact science behind the figures because there could be loads out there who have it and don't come forward (although the plus of that is its likely not a bad instance of the virus) or those that have it and do not know yet.

The latter part worries me when new countries report their cases. There will be a good chance the two people in Iran for instance will have come into contact with others before knowing they were infected.

[mcshed]

59 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I realise they can only count the people who present themselves, but I do wonder how many are getting inflected and keeping their heads down so aren't within the numbers.

Yeah if you've got the sniffles in Wuhan are you going to tell The Party so they can weld you into your home or lock you in a facility with definite cases? Actual cases will be higher and mortality rate lower.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, mcshed said:

Yeah if you've got the sniffles in Wuhan are you going to tell The Party so they can weld you into your home or lock you in a facility with definite cases?

yup, exactly what I'm thinking. 

Whereas if covid-19 hits the uk in a big way, there'll be everyone with a headache or worse queuing up at the docs convinced they're going to die.  

[Festival Liam]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yup, exactly what I'm thinking. 

Whereas if covid-19 hits the uk in a big way, there'll be everyone with a headache or worse queuing up at the docs convinced they're going to die.  

Ask any GP, already is apparently 🙄

[Homer]

16 minutes ago, Festival Liam said:

Ask any GP, already is apparently 🙄

I got a text the other day with CAPITAL LETTERS telling me not to come into my local dr's unnecessarily (south London). Ridiculous that people are inundating the NHS!

[Quark]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

I got a text the other day with CAPITAL LETTERS telling me not to come into my local dr's unnecessarily (south London). Ridiculous that people are inundating the NHS!

Usual though. Media does its best to whip everyone up into a frenzy about it. So everyone panics a bit. Then they can point to stories of people panicking. And so on.

If you go onto BBC News front page now, the only coronavirus stories are one about GB nationals being flown home from the cruise ship, and one video piece about the streets in Beijing being empty.

That's not to say that it isn't still a problem or a risk or anything like that, but they came in with such an "EVERYONE'S GOING TO DIE" stance from day 1, now things are at least looking remotely sensible they've got nowhere to go. Until they can start banging on about how everyone's panicked for no reason, and look completely bewildered by the fact that anyone think it's something to worry about!

[northernringo]

43 minutes ago, Quark said:

Usual though. Media does its best to whip everyone up into a frenzy about it. So everyone panics a bit. Then they can point to stories of people panicking. And so on.

If you go onto BBC News front page now, the only coronavirus stories are one about GB nationals being flown home from the cruise ship, and one video piece about the streets in Beijing being empty.

That's not to say that it isn't still a problem or a risk or anything like that, but they came in with such an "EVERYONE'S GOING TO DIE" stance from day 1, now things are at least looking remotely sensible they've got nowhere to go. Until they can start banging on about how everyone's panicked for no reason, and look completely bewildered by the fact that anyone think it's something to worry about!

Exactly this.

No doubt if there is a continued rise in South Korea they'll be back with their 'all going to die' stories

[Quark]

Case in point

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51504512

[Hugh Jass]

22 minutes ago, Quark said:

Case in point

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51504512

The Sun reporting misleading information??

Who'd have thunk it?