Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Quark]

30 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I'm going to Japan in September and honestly, I'm very slightly concerned. I'm sure it'll work out. 

The funny thing is, I'm also meant to be in Venice next month and Milan in April! 😂

Given the correlation between your destinations and the virus, I'm really sorry to say that maybe I might possibly not be devastated that you don't yet have a ticket for this year 🤣

[Lycra]

8 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

The last pandemic, Swine Flu, had 55,000 new cases in Britain every week by July 2009. 

Glastonbury still went ahead as usual the week before.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

 

People were even diagnosed with it during the festival and they just sent those people home.

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2009/jun/28/glastonbury

 

 

The major concern with Coronavirus is its' fatality rate. Normal seasonal flu has a death rate of ca. 0.1% and by comparison swine flu was much milder with a death rate of 0.02%. Set this against the reported fatality rate of 1 - 4% for Corona, which if correct, puts it in a similar league to Spanish flu which caused somewhere  between  20 to 100 million deaths in 1918. This is one reason why health officials are so concerned and extreme containment actions are being taken. Another is socio-economic.

With large numbers of people infected normal life is impacted as restrictions are imposed and supply chains disrupted. The latter is already being experienced here with manufacturing  parts from China being in short supply in some areas. 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

5 minutes ago, Quark said:

Given the correlation between your destinations and the virus, I'm really sorry to say that maybe I might possibly not be devastated that you don't yet have a ticket for this year 🤣

😂😂😂

If you get me a ticket in the resale I promise to wear a hazmat suit 

[pryce]

4 minutes ago, Lycra said:

The major concern with Coronavirus is its' fatality rate. Normal seasonal flu has a death rate of ca. 0.1% and by comparison swine flu was much milder with a death rate of 0.02%. Set this against the reported fatality rate of 1 - 4% for Corona, which if correct, puts it in a similar league to Spanish flu which caused somewhere  between  20 to 100 million deaths in 1918. This is one reason why health officials are so concerned and extreme containment actions are being taken. Another is socio-economic.

With large numbers of people infected normal life is impacted as restrictions are imposed and supply chains disrupted. The latter is already being experienced here with manufacturing  parts from China being in short supply in some areas. 

There are many different types of flu though isn't there? So grouping all flu strains against one is going to affect this. Correct me if I'm wrong 

 

 

[John the Moth]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

they've been giving preference to the economy over health - supposedly on the basis that a crashed economy is a bigger risk to health than covid-19 ... but China managed to wangle itself a stronghold within WHO after SARS, so it does seem a little suspicious.

The current head of WHO is Chinese I believe, and recently WHO started to recognise traditional Chinese medicine in its coding system of treatments.

I’m sure these facts are unrelated though 🙄

[Quark]

20 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

😂😂😂

If you get me a ticket in the resale I promise to wear a hazmat suit 

Sold and sold

[Ayrshire Chris]

If Glastonbury is affected then that probably means all other events, gigs, Olympic Games, euro championships, air travel etc will also be cancelled. Schools and Unis closed, effectively the country shut down.  We have a long way to go before we reach that stage. The economic effect would be devastating. 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Ayrshire Chris

[AlexOvd]

I have one of the first comments of this post saying it was "impossible". Well, it looks like it's getting strong and with the incubation period and flights not suspended to and from Italy that's it. There is already 1000 people in quarantine in Tenerife for an Italian tourist infected in a hotel. It has just started...

The fact that Italy is probably one of the most touristic countries of Europe it will make it really easy.

Edited February 25, 2020 by AlexOvd

[Quark]

11 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

I have one of the first comments of this post saying it was "impossible". Well, it looks like it's getting strong and with the incubation period and flights not suspended to and from Italy that's it. There is already 1000 people in quarantine in Tenerife for an Italian tourist infected in a hotel. It has just started...

The fact that Italy is probably one of the most touristic countries of Europe it will make it really easy.

Aye it's certainly getting worse.  Certainly before the confirmations from Italy and Iran it looked like it was on the verge of being properly contained.  Rapidly becoming a bit of a different story.

[stuartbert two hats]

It's starting to get a little worrying.  A generally sensible person I follow on Twiiter to talk about tech was calmly discussing her strategies for how to cope if her and her family were quarantined in their house for weeks on end if schools and shops all shut.  I don't relish the idea of keeping a hyperactive 7 year old indoors for weeks on end 😟

[Madyaker]

2 hours ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Where were you going may I ask? I’m supposed to be flying to the Far East in 4 weeks, close to an outbreak, but it’s still on at present!

Shanghai in China lol, I can’t say I was surprised when I saw the email. 

[Madyaker]

2 hours ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

🤔

 

Yeah but Ebola mostly killed poor black people and the rest of the world doesn’t care about them so it didn’t get as much attention. 

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, pryce said:

There are many different types of flu though isn't there? So grouping all flu strains against one is going to affect this. Correct me if I'm wrong 

not sure you're wrong as such, but I believe influenza is a continually-mutating virus, and that its mortality rate stays within the same ballpark year after year - so it can be sensibly grouped together.

[northernringo]

Today's update: 

I've just read through the past couple of pages here since my post yesterday and no surprise there seems to be a mix of hysteria and those who think it is nothing to worry about at all! One thing that hasn't been discussed much is the impact of hotter weather on this disease. There's is an optimism that the disease will struggle as temperatures rise over the coming months. Even in Iran it seems to be the milder places that the outbreak is thriving. 

Yesterday was a bad day overall - nothing to cause massive panic about yet, but a bad day I'd say. I'll start with more positive news though with China's active cases dropping below 50,000 (47,461). Again mainly due to recoveries. Their figures have actually only increased once since I've been doing the stats and that was when I compiled stats on the morning of the 18th (and only then by around 200). No change to the numbers of the Diamond Princess but as I've explained before I don't think the numbers are reported well on it (ie some cases are included in specific country numbers). 

Singapore is down 1 (1 new case but 2 recoveries). They are down to 37 active cases from 90 infected people (0 deaths). Japan up by 6 just and Hong Kong up by 2. Thailand up 1 (2 new cases but 1 recovery) so there are now 15 cases there. Taiwan up 1 to 25 and no change for Malaysia. Vietnam now has 0 active cases as all 16 have recovered. They join neighbours Cambodia in getting rid of the disease (for now anyway). No change for Macau (4) and Philippines(1). I don't want to jinx it, but it seems the further south the countries are in Asia, the 'better' they are coping. This could potential suggest the virus doesn't thrive as well in hotter temperatures.

South Korea as expected has seen another large increase but not just as large as before. Currently 945 cases from 807 yesterday. 10 deaths now for South Korea. 

In Europe, France has got rid of it's cases and is now down to 0 (can't see this lasting though). Spain however no longer has 0, its got one confirmed case (possibly the Italian doctor in Tenerife but not sure if it has been accounted for yet). No change for anywhere else in Europe except Italy. Another increase for Italy as they are up to 262 active cases, with 7 deaths. 

Iran hasn't actually reported any new cases and is down 3 active at the minute (due to 3 more deaths, 15 deaths total). I'd expect it to start rising again soon though. In other worrying news, Kuwait (8), Bahrain (8), Iraq (1), Afghanistan (1), and Oman (2) are all 'newly infected'.  

Again USA numbers have increased but I think this is again due to more cases from the ship. Canada has two new cases as well (no confirmation these are due to the ship though). 

If anyone is still thinking Glastonbury will go ahead if there is an outbreak in England I suggest they look up the Tenerife hotel story. The hope is though that there will not be an outbreak in England around the time of Glastonbury. I'm still optimistic.

[waynewdk]

Someone’s been tested positive in a Tenerife hotel now, hotel on lockdwon

[MaxPower]

1 hour ago, Madyaker said:

Yeah but Ebola mostly killed poor black people and the rest of the world doesn’t care about them so it didn’t get as much attention. 

This is a video, not a picture, you should watch it.

Also Ebola got absolute huge world wide press coverage.

[zeppelin]

Just seen Georgia's been forced to cancel a show in Milan due to Coronavirus. 

[zahidf]

I assume either its contained soon or UK gets an outbreak well before june.

[Lycra]

2 hours ago, pryce said:

There are many different types of flu though isn't there? So grouping all flu strains against one is going to affect this. Correct me if I'm wrong 

 

 

You are correct. There are many strains of flu and more are developing as viruses mutate. Most of these virus strains are relatively benign but occasionally one develops which can cause severe infection and respiratory problems and hence have higher death rates. Whilst containment will have a role in halting an outbreak, as will a vaccine when it is developed, the threat could die away as the virus mutates to a less virulent, less harmful strain.....or it could mutate in the other direction 😲

[northernringo]

Looks like Austria and Croatia have their first cases now too.

[DaveyGee]

I for one am concerned with this particular spread of virus. I can't recall being as apprehensive about any of the past viruses. 

One interesting point I noticed recently is that the attendance to the Salvador carnival, Bahia, Brazil, appears to be down. Normally attracts 2.5 million (1.5 million tourists) however my wife (From Salvador) commented the number of people appears to have declined this year due to fears of Covid-19. Will there be any cases reported after the week long event? Will the climate have an effect as suggested in previous posts?

Does anyone know of the statistics in relation to demography, for example gender, age range or personal health issues? Also the severity of cases?

I do hope this will 'burn' itself out, I guess time will tell. Glastonbury is so important to my well being that to miss this would be a huge loss, however I do also appreciate the potential to be serious situation.

Let's hope we will all be enjoying the hallowed fields again this year. 🙂

Peace to all and take care. 

[lukethekid]

If it was to get cancelled (which it isn’t) what would happen with tickets? Would everyone just get their 50 quid back or would you still be guaranteed a ticket for the rescheduled festival?

[Gilb]

5 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Isn’t the WHO the World Health Organisation? Why would they be giving preferential treatment to America?

Its like the "World Series" of baseball.... 😉

[waynewdk]

12 minutes ago, lukethekid said:

If it was to get cancelled (which it isn’t) what would happen with tickets? Would everyone just get their 50 quid back or would you still be guaranteed a ticket for the rescheduled festival?

I rekon it would be easier just to transfer everyone to next year, and anyone who can’t make it would get a refund, with the sent back tickets going on sale in October 

[Ayrshire Chris]

12 minutes ago, lukethekid said:

If it was to get cancelled (which it isn’t) what would happen with tickets? Would everyone just get their 50 quid back or would you still be guaranteed a ticket for the rescheduled festival?

Assuming I survive the apocalypse then I would expect a guaranteed ticket for the next festival so no need to refund deposits etc. I think though that this would be the least of our worries if it gets to the stage public events etc are cancelled