Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[GrumpyRaver]

2 hours ago, eastynh said:

Already killed more than SARS managed.

It absolutely hasn't.  It also has a much lower fatality rate than SARS had.

[eastynh]

4 minutes ago, GrumpyRaver said:

It absolutely hasn't.  It also has a much lower fatality rate than SARS had.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-deaths-sars.html

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-dozens-more-deaths-chinese-province-centre-outbreak-hubei

Edited February 4, 2020 by eastynh

[GrumpyRaver]

Just now, eastynh said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-deaths-sars.html

I read it.  It's wrong.  SARS killed 774 people at an almost 10 percent fatality rate.  Corona has so far killed 425 at around a 2 percent fatality rate, but it's hard to come up with an accurate figure on that while the outbreak is peaking.

[BlackZeppelin]

3 hours ago, sirjonnyp said:

It is a concern to some of us international guests. My flights are with Cathay, so I'm changing in China. Even better, Australia is shutting its border to China, so I have no idea if there are even going to be flights a few months down the line. If flights are still being cancelled I hope I can get some money back, but if I can't I'm not sure I can justify the expense with an even more expensive flight via a different hub. At the moment I'm sure that everything will be fine, but if we get to mid-March and things aren't looking great I'm going to have a decision to make. 

I'm in exactly the same position.

Flying with Cathay. 

Mind you, we got 6 tickets to the 50th Glastonbury...I'm going come hell or high water.

[eastynh]

6 minutes ago, GrumpyRaver said:

I read it.  It's wrong.  SARS killed 774 people at an almost 10 percent fatality rate.  Corona has so far killed 425 at around a 2 percent fatality rate, but it's hard to come up with an accurate figure on that while the outbreak is peaking.

The Guardian also saying it has killed more than SARS.

Either way this Virus will infect more people and kill more people than SARS. The fatality rate maybe higher than Coronavirus but by all accounts the infection rate is lower. 

Whats worst? The virus you are less likely to catch that has a higher fatality rate, or the one that you are more likely to catch and could still possibly kill you?

 

Edit - Does it really matter which is worst. SARS is not a threat at present, Coronavirus is.

Edited February 4, 2020 by eastynh

[Copperface]

6 minutes ago, BlackZeppelin said:

I'm in exactly the same position.

Flying with Cathay. 

Mind you, we got 6 tickets to the 50th Glastonbury...I'm going come hell or high water.

I just managed last week to cancel my daughters flights to HK and back in from Beijing for end of March despite them being non refundable and non changeable (ie cheap) with Air France via Paris.  

The website says AF were not considering any changes at the moment until after 29th Feb.......however, when I rang them they instantly refunded and the agent actually said that they were planning on flight cancellations for several months at the moment.

[GrumpyRaver]

7 minutes ago, eastynh said:

The Guardian also saying it has killed more than SARS.

They're wrong too then.

7 minutes ago, eastynh said:

Either way this Virus will infect more people and kill more people than SARS. The fatality rate maybe higher than Coronavirus but by all accounts the infection rate is lower. 

Yes, it probably will.  And it probably has a higher infection rate, but we won't know that for sure until much later down the line - higher numbers infected can be caused by poor responses to the outbreak rather than the virus itself being more contagious.

9 minutes ago, eastynh said:

Whats worst? The virus you are less likely to catch that has a higher fatality rate, or the one that you are more likely to catch and could still possibly kill you?

Without doubt, the one with the higher fatality rate.  Unless the corona virus mutates (which is possibility), it is incredibly unlikely to kill anybody without pre-existing health conditions.  Flu killed 61'000 people last year, a number that will almost certainly be higher than Corona... but it has a fatality rate of less than 0.1%.  Which is why nobody loses their shit about it.

12 minutes ago, eastynh said:

Does it really matter which is worst. SARS is not a threat at present, Coronavirus is.

Unless you're a pensioner or already sick, it's not a threat to you or I at present.  It could become one, but let's keep it in perspective.

[stopwn1981]

China clearly can’t contain it and its spread elsewhere. Other countries cutting off China, but the horse has already bolted.

Even if that spread can be contained locally, it’s in a number of countries - is global travel going to be stopped completely to contain it? Doubt it.

China have cancelled their football season and major athletics championship. Likely that other countries will follow suit in terms of cancelling mass gatherings as a sensible precaution to stop spread.
 

Unless by some miracle UK can stop it arriving and stop it spreading then highly likely Glastonbury and all other festivals are canned this year.

Unless of course it plays out that it is no worse than a cold in most people and then it’s not an issue.

Too many issues and unknowns at present. And not sure we should be trusting the Chinese Government figures.

In short, no one knows, see how it plays out.

All I do know is if Glasto 50 Is cancelled, ticket holders better carry over to next year!

[BlackZeppelin]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

I just managed last week to cancel my daughters flights to HK and back in from Beijing for end of March despite them being non refundable and non changeable (ie cheap) with Air France via Paris.  

The website says AF were not considering any changes at the moment until after 29th Feb.......however, when I rang them they instantly refunded and the agent actually said that they were planning on flight cancellations for several months at the moment.

Blimey!

Better get onto it in the morning. 

Just looking on Skyscanner and there are some ridiculously cheap flights on Cathay, now. 

Might try Emirates.

[eastynh]

3 minutes ago, GrumpyRaver said:

They're wrong too then.

Yes, it probably will.  And it probably has a higher infection rate, but we won't know that for sure until much later down the line - higher numbers infected can be caused by poor responses to the outbreak rather than the virus itself being more contagious.

Without doubt, the one with the higher fatality rate.  Unless the corona virus mutates (which is possibility), it is incredibly unlikely to kill anybody without pre-existing health conditions.  Flu killed 61'000 people last year, a number that will almost certainly be higher than Corona... but it has a fatality rate of less than 0.1%.  Which is why nobody loses their shit about it.

Unless you're a pensioner or already sick, it's not a threat to you or I at present.  It could become one, but let's keep it in perspective.

I am an at risk group. I have Crohns. Currently on Prednisone and Azathioprine. Both SARS and Coronavirus would be a majot threat to me. Thats why I take an interest in things like this. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by eastynh

[GrumpyRaver]

1 minute ago, stopwn1981 said:

Unless by some miracle UK can stop it arriving and stop it spreading then highly likely Glastonbury and all other festivals are canned this year.

Why would it be a 'miracle' when the UK has successfully managed to deal with every global health emergency to date?

2 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Unless of course it plays out that it is no worse than a cold in most people and then it’s not an issue.

Given the evidence we have, that's exactly how it looks like playing out.

[Gnomicide]

The UK quarantine building is a short walk from my house, looks like the contamination is being held back by some metal fencing.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Gnomicide

[Quark]

Just now, eastynh said:

I am an at risk group. I have Crohns. Currently on Prenisone and Azathioprine. Both SARS and Coronavirus would be a majot threat to me. Thats why I take an interest in things like this. 

I'm lucky enough not be at risk as I'm healthy, no chronic or ongoing issues and I have a pretty robust immune system.

However I have way too many family members who aren't in such a strong position. Cancer, lung problems, heart problems, you name it.  And they'd all be at risk. So while I'm not worried for me, I'm definitely concerned for them.

At this stage it's about people being damn careful about their sanitising, hygiene and so on, so it's not a case of barricade the doors just yet, but if people are brushing it off as nothing then I do think they're being a bit optimistic.

[Hugh Jass]

1 minute ago, Gnomicide said:

The UK quarantine building is a short walk from my house, looks like the contamination is being held back by some metal fencing.

Can they get that stuff for Glastonbury?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Gnomicide said:

The UK quarantine building is a short walk from my house, looks like the contamination is being held back by some metal fencing.

please avoid the glasto thingy .... if he carries the china thingy  

[GrumpyRaver]

2 minutes ago, eastynh said:

I am an at risk group. I have Crohns. Currently on Prednisone and Azathioprine. Both SARS and Coronavirus would be a majot threat to me. Thats why I take an interest in things like this. 

My thoughts go out to you (I've had family member suffer from Crohns, and know how utterly dreadful it is), I don't think there's any evidence that you would be more at risk of it due to that than you would be of flu.  And the government and health professionals are rolling out plans to protect people with pre-existing conditions with military precision.

I do understand your concern though - the way the story is treated by the media fuels the genuine fears of people in your position.  It's totally unnecessary. 

[stopwn1981]

2 minutes ago, GrumpyRaver said:

And the government and health professionals are rolling out plans to protect people with pre-existing conditions with military precision 

I really respect and admire your faith and confidence!

[GrumpyRaver]

1 minute ago, stopwn1981 said:

I really respect and admire your faith and confidence!

I form my views based on experience.  As previously stated, the UK's response to every single world health emergency ever declared has been impeccable.  We are respected around the world for our expertise on these matters.

[eastynh]

21 minutes ago, GrumpyRaver said:

My thoughts go out to you (I've had family member suffer from Crohns, and know how utterly dreadful it is), I don't think there's any evidence that you would be more at risk of it due to that than you would be of flu.  And the government and health professionals are rolling out plans to protect people with pre-existing conditions with military precision.

I do understand your concern though - the way the story is treated by the media fuels the genuine fears of people in your position.  It's totally unnecessary. 

The medications I am on suppress my immune system mate. They shut down my immune system to stop it attacking me. Even a cold is very bad news for me, nevermind the flu. At least I can have a flu jab. 

I am not a knee jerk kind of person but it would be negligent to pay no attention to things like this.

[faymondo]

28 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

The UK quarantine building is a short walk from my house, looks like the contamination is being held back by some metal fencing.

I believe the building(s) got a jetwash the other day !

[eastynh]

31 minutes ago, Quark said:

I'm lucky enough not be at risk as I'm healthy, no chronic or ongoing issues and I have a pretty robust immune system.

However I have way too many family members who aren't in such a strong position. Cancer, lung problems, heart problems, you name it.  And they'd all be at risk. So while I'm not worried for me, I'm definitely concerned for them.

At this stage it's about people being damn careful about their sanitising, hygiene and so on, so it's not a case of barricade the doors just yet, but if people are brushing it off as nothing then I do think they're being a bit optimistic.

Its about using common sense mate and being aware of the dangers. Unfortunately not everyone will take the same precautions or listen to advice.

I know first hand how people are selfish. Have had idiots in work think its funny to come in work with with a cold, then cough and splutter all over me. They are not arsed about me ending up really ill, all they care about is losing their shift allowance if they are off sick.

Edited February 4, 2020 by eastynh

[Copperface]

35 minutes ago, BlackZeppelin said:

 

Just looking on Skyscanner and there are some ridiculously cheap flights on Cathay, now. 

 

Scratching my head as to why that might be..........

[GrumpyRaver]

Just now, eastynh said:

The medications I am on suppress my immune system mate. They shut down my immune system to stop it attacking me. Even a cold is very bad news for me, nevermind the flu. At least I can have a flu jab. 

I am not a knee jerk kind of person but it would be negligent to pay no attention to things like this.

My thoughts go out to you, and I fully understand what you're saying.  A jab AND treatment are being worked on at an accelerated rate right now, as is always the case once things gain the WHO marking.  You're right to be concerned about how it might develop, but right now flu is more of a threat to you (and jabs are not effective), and that is highly likely to remain so.

[Copperface]

G Fest 2015 practice for 2020!!

[Quark]

6 minutes ago, eastynh said:

Its about using common sense mate and being aware of the dangers. Unfortunately not everyone will take the same precautions or listen to advice.

I know first hand how people are selfish. Have had idiots in work think its funny to come in work with with a cold, then cough and splutter all over me. They are not arsed about me ending up really ill, all they care about is losing their shift allowance if they are off sick.

Ah, people. Really do have to wonder at times...