Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[jparx]

43 minutes ago, J0hnny said:

This is a real concern and has an unfortunate chance of becoming a reality. This may easily become a decision made at government level, other countries are already beginning to cancel large gatherings by revoking licenses.  The main issue with Glastonbury is its sheer size and international popularity.  That many people from around the globe in close contact will raise serious red flags with the UK Health department.  I’m lucky enough to of obtained a ticket for this years 50th celebrations but now not so sure it will actually go ahead.  

Out of the roughly 205,000 people on site, how many are really travelling from outside the country though? Compare that to the Euros of the Olympics. 5% versus something like 40%?

[Hugh Jass]

57 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

Yeh I totally agree. Cancelling two and a half months early just so it's done before we pay balances seems a bit crazy to me. 

Not from a financial perspective. By June they will have spent most of the ticket money they will have received and would have to go through the process of refunding every punter £250 then claiming all of the infrastructure costs back from their insurances. They’d most likely make a huge loss on the whole endeavour.

[morph100]

4 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Not from a financial perspective. By June they will have spent most of the ticket money they will have received and would have to go through the process of refunding every punter £250 then claiming all of the infrastructure costs back from their insurances. They’d most likely make a huge loss on the whole endeavour.

Dont they have a large chunk in the bank in case of this type of scenario? Sure i read that in an interview somewhere once.

[Hugh Jass]

Just now, morph100 said:

Dont they have a large chunk in the bank in case of this type of scenario? Sure i read that in an interview somewhere once.

Hopefully.

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

4 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Not from a financial perspective. By June they will have spent most of the ticket money they will have received and would have to go through the process of refunding every punter £250 then claiming all of the infrastructure costs back from their insurances. They’d most likely make a huge loss on the whole endeavour.

I'm sure discussions are underway and they must be prepared for every eventuality. Whatever decision is made, it won't be a knee jerk one. I'd be really surprised if we didn't see some kind of statement from GFL in the next two weeks or so and most definitely before the balance payment if the situation continues to escalate

[Hugh Jass]

Just now, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I'm sure discussions are underway and they must be prepared for every eventuality. Whatever decision is made, it won't be a knee jerk one. I'd be really surprised if we didn't see some kind of statement from GFL in the next two weeks or so and most definitely before the balance payment if the situation continues to escalate

Definitely, it would be good to get some clarity before balance day. I’m also holding off on booking a coach ticket. Not sure if NE will refund if the festival is cancelled.

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, morph100 said:

Dont they have a large chunk in the bank in case of this type of scenario? Sure i read that in an interview somewhere once.

They do, but I'm sure they would rather keep it in the bank, rather than losing their buffer.

[morph100]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

They do, but I'm sure they would rather keep it in the bank, rather than losing their buffer.

Yes hoping its fairly contained by then and there is just extra anti bacterial stuff everywhere

[AlexOvd]

6 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Definitely, it would be good to get some clarity before balance day. I’m also holding off on booking a coach ticket. Not sure if NE will refund if the festival is cancelled.

For the ones traveling from other countries, it will be a mess if they cancel last minute as no one is going to refund us the expenses for the trip. I didn't book anything yet of course

[Suprefan]

What if it got to the point that it was cancelled at the literal 11th hour. I feel as if they would let everyone who bought a ticket keep it and let it carry into 2021. How would they be willing to place all those buyers through the onsale again after coming out empty handed.

[Hugh Jass]

2 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

What if it got to the point that it was cancelled at the literal 11th hour. I feel as if they would let everyone who bought a ticket keep it and let it carry into 2021. How would they be willing to place all those buyers through the onsale again after coming out empty handed.

Problem with that approach would be the hundreds of thousands of people who missed out this year who would end up missing out again. And I say that as someone with a ticket.

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

2 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

What if it got to the point that it was cancelled at the literal 11th hour. I feel as if they would let everyone who bought a ticket keep it and let it carry into 2021. How would they be willing to place all those buyers through the onsale again after coming out empty handed.

As unfair as it sounds for the lucky bunch that got tickets, I'm sure it would be easier and maybe even a requirement from insurance companies that the whole thing is written off and refunds are given. However, they could offer a first refusal next year for those who were successful in October 2019. Maybe a presale a week before the main sale based upon your registration if you wanted a 2021 ticket? 

Staying positive though, I'm sure everything will work out. The problem is that it's escalating at a really difficult time (lineup announcement/balance payment/resale dates). 

I wonder if this situation will push these dates out by 3 or 4 weeks so they can assess the situation? It might be under control within a month.

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, Doug85 said:

No plans at all for them to cancel it yet, all their usual deliveries of equipment etc are still on order. Pyramid had a delivery yesterday weirdly enough. Festival had contingency plans in place for Swine flu/SARS etc i'm pretty sure they will be thinking of some for this with the last resort being a cancellation however if it's at that stage we would probably all have bigger things to worry about. 

The situation with Corona is unique and no precedent  exists to predict what will happen going forward. What we can see is an upward trajectory of infection around the globe along with individual countries beginning to announce steps to reduce movement and restrict mass gatherings. For example,  BBC report Saudia Arabia has banned foreign pilgrims from entering the country and Australia have enacted an emergency plan under which the Government can order the cancellation of mass gatherings, sports events, concerts, festivals etc. All this raises genuine concern what will happen in Europe and the UK, particularly as this outbreak is growing. We will all just have to wait and see.....and hope it is contained.

 

[Reckoner]

1 hour ago, a6l6e6x said:

Calling it a pandemic in Australia now, reckon this will all blow over by April

This is mostly political and somewhat practical. Slomo took a big popularity hit with his delay in handling of the bushfires and is trying to project some leadership. Practically as health responsibility lies with the states, it allows the formation of some federal committees to coordinate efforts nationally. 

In the detail of his announcement he mentions no plans of Stopping mass gatherings, and that flight restrictions are More likely to be relaxed Than increased. 

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, Ddiamondd said:

I do think we're conditioned to see it as "a difficult time" – but we're just highly expectant that things need to happen around this time of year and we infer any action/inaction as a sign from the gods.

Almost all the rest of Europe's festivals are already announced. None of them are stalling production or taking tickets off sale. As someone pointed out, if Glasto goes down, the entire 2020 calendar more or less goes down. That includes, surely, every government-funded or local cultural event in every city, i.e. a total shutdown for the country.

There's been 13 confirmed cases out of over 1000 people tested and I think the chance of postponement is fractional, unless things develop and worsen.

From what I know on the inside, bookings for certain areas are absolutely going ahead and there is no hint of a cancellation.

Thank you for this  

[1986]

45 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Definitely, it would be good to get some clarity before balance day. I’m also holding off on booking a coach ticket. Not sure if NE will refund if the festival is cancelled.

Think if you spend a couple quid extra per ticket you can get a more flexible one that allows for cancellations.

[Lycra]

GFL do not have to make any decisions right now as there is no advice to cancel, however behind the scenes I imagine contingency planing is taking place. One can foresee events over the next month as being crucial to what happens later this year.

Just think....This thread probably started as a minor conversation  piece and now look we're we are at.....page 37. And yes, if the outbreak gets much worse over the next 4 weeks, I can see the balance payment date pushed back or fest cancelled.

[Hugh Jass]

Just now, Lycra said:

GFL do not have to make any decisions right now as there is no advice to cancel, however behind the scenes I imagine contingency planing is taking place. One can foresee events over the next month as being crucial to what happens later this year.

Just think....This thread probably started as a minor conversation  piece and now look we're we are at.....page 37. And yes, if the outbreak gets much worse over the next 4 weeks, I can see the balance payment date pushed back or fest cancelled.

Can they push the balance date back? I imagine they need to start paying for stuff from April onwards.

[AS35DF]

Map.BitBoy.Live

 

Live Coronavirus tracker!

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by AS35DF

[Lycra]

12 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Can they push the balance date back? I imagine they need to start paying for stuff from April onwards.

I don't know, but there will be key go/no-go points and a rapidly increasing infection rate end-March will focus minds.

[Gnomicide]

10 minutes ago, AS35DF said:

Map.BitBoy.Live

 

Live Coronavirus tracker!

 

Seems a tad unlucky that everyone with it in the UK lives in that one house just off the A6071.

[Hugh Jass]

6 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

Seems a tad unlucky that everyone with it in the UK lives in that one house just off the A6071.

Always knew that was a bad road.

[northernringo]

Today's update:

Again, a bad day in terms of spread, however global active case numbers continue to fall. The next two weeks will be crucial - if enough countries can keep their cases contained the numbers should continue to fall. 

In East Asia, beyond South Korea things weren't too bad yesterday. No net change for Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. Singapore's active cases dropped to 31 from 33. Japan as expected had another rise but only by 17 active cases (2 new deaths though). I'd expect their recovery numbers to start to climb pretty soon.

South Korea obviously the big issue in the region, an increase of 448 active cases yesterday. It hasn't been in South Korea long enough for the recoveries to start happening in significant numbers either, probably up to a week before that starts to happen.

More good news in China though, 2302 less cases than yesterday. If the trend continues, China's active cases could be below 40,000 by Monday. Only 29 deaths yesterday compared to 2706 recoveries.

Importantly, the Diamond Princess is starting to see some recoveries which should improve things. 10 recoveries yesterday but still the active cases are up by 3.

The Middle East is beginning to look like it is struggling though. Lebanon has a new case (2) and Israel has a new case too but also recorded a recovery so they are still on 1. Bahrain jumps 10 (33), Kuwait 11 (26) and Iraq 1 (6). Elsewhere, no change in Oman, Afghanistan and UAE. There is a lot of concern of Iran's reporting of their figures, some suggest their case numbers are actually far higher. However, they reported their first recoveries yesterday (49) and 6 more deaths meaning their active cases supposedly dropped by 9.

In Europe, plenty of new countries had their first cases: Macedonia, Romania, Greece, Denmark, Estonia and Georgia (all 1 case). Finland reported a new case having previously recovered their only active case so back to 1 for them too. Sweden up 1 (2).  Croatia is up 2 (3) and Switzerland up 3 (4). No change in Austria (2) and Belgium (0). Spain up 4 (11), UK up 2 (7), France up 3 (5) and worryingly Germany is up 8 (12). 

Italy obviously the main issue in Europe  and their active cases rose by 131. Could be up to a week before we see recoveries in their numbers too (their 3 original cases have all recovered).

Not much change in the rest of the world except the news that Brazil is the first South American country with any cases (1). In North America, Canada's cases fell 3 (5) and USA's grew to 54, although 42 of them are from the cruise ship. Australia has no change (except I've added their 8 cruise ship passengers to their total now) and India, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Russia also have no change. Egypt and Algeria the only African countries with cases (1).

Hopefully the Chinese numbers continue to fall and recoveries start to improve in Japan reducing their figures. I fear South Korea's will continue to rise for a while yet. In Europe, sadly I expect more cases in the majority of countries of Europe, possibly extending to North Africa too. I imagine Turkey will soon get cases as well.

[northernringo]

Worryingly, the case of someone catching coronavirus for a second time has occurred in Japan.

EDIT: Actually it seems this has already happened in China.

Edited February 27, 2020 by northernringo

[MaxPower]

The hysteria in this thread is legitimately mindblowing.