Primavera Sound 2021

[Nesser]

1 hour ago, xxialac said:

Festival attendees don't need to be vaccinated I'd suggest, they need to be tested effectively, alongside some other protections (e.g. vaccination of the vulnerable) happening in the background.

I'd guess more likely to get to this point by August than June but wouldn't rule it out...

Agree, especially because if festival attendees need to be vaccinated we're facing 2022 if not 2023. 

But, my main question nowadays is: will the Government green light these kind of events once the vulnerable are immune knowing that the virus could circulate between the 18-50 age gap? 

[Ohjesus]

rockaway beach fest in uk, January, just cancelled this morning 

[jannybruck]

30 minutes ago, Quadrophobia said:

There is unanimous agreement amongst all the poeple I have spoking to in booking and touring agencies that there will be no large Festivals in Europe in 2021.

Then why are promoters and booking agents scheduling more and more new stuff for the summer? Even a quick glance at the eFests sidebar with new announcements every day proves there's at least some confidence within the industry that these could happen or they wouldn't bother trying to book stuff in, spend on marketing, pay deposits etc at all. These aren't just regional festivals either, stuff like Pearl Jam only got announced a couple of weeks ago. Gorillaz just announced an indoor arena tour for the summer, which is even more of a stretch than an outdoor one. Stuff is moving.

 

[jannybruck]

26 minutes ago, Nesser said:

Agree, especially because if festival attendees need to be vaccinated we're facing 2022 if not 2023. 

But, my main question nowadays is: will the Government green light these kind of events once the vulnerable are immune knowing that the virus could circulate between the 18-50 age gap? 

The fact is most governments are working on the idea that it's simply going to have to circulate amongst these people once the vaccine's out. Once the most vulnerable, older people and frontline workers are vaccinated then it's hopefully going to keep the R rate lower, and by doing that eventually the virus will just quieten down and keep a lot more manageable through lack of transmission chains. This is coupled with things like more rapid testing.

It's got to the point where it's simply not feasible to expect the entire world to wait for everyone to be vaccinated, and the UK government in particular have said that was never their plan anyway. Healthy 18-50 year olds are very, very low on the priority list regardless of any potential long term complications.

I can't forsee any government or local government wanting another spring/summer where tourism is gone, large events are gone, sporting events are gone – particularly as we now know that outdoor transmission is very very low. As soon as they have vaccination timescales they'll be wanting to get all these things and 'real life' cooking again using whatever tools are available.

[whos3000]

Travis scott also announced for july in Portugal 

[xxialac]

1 hour ago, Quadrophobia said:

An outbreak at a festival would be devastating, even if no risk groups were affected. With everything we are currently learning about long term conequences it is absolutely reckless to go forward with a festival where less than 2/3 of attendees have immunity.  
Even if the first vaccines will be available by January it will take all year to get sufficient vaccination out. There is unanimous agreement amongst all the poeple I have spoking to in booking and touring agencies that there will be no large Festivals in Europe in 2021. It is simply not possible to plan them under the current conditions. Many acts are already rescheduling their dates for the first half of 2021. The sector has seen tremendous losses and testing is not even an option because there is no money to pay for it. Vaccines will be covered by health insurance, but getting tested for a festival will neither be paid by insurances nor by muncipalities or governments. Naturally no festival will admit it will not happen at this time, and indeed many are working on solutions (because what else can they do?), but none seem plausible at this time.

The only thing that can work is that the numbers will be lowered by keeping up rigid measures all through Winter, so the vaccines can be rolled out when there are only very few cases. This would require rather harsh measures for approximately six months at least though so the spread (like we see one right now) is delayed til after summer, when we approach relevant vaccination quotas. I don't see compliance with such harsh measures anywhere in Europe though and even if the numbers were lowered significantly, a local outbreak in Barcelona in Spring could kill all plans.

Bottom line: the music industry cannot risk an all-in scenario and will not go through with the 2021 season.

But there's also a cost to having to run a music-related business for yet another 12 months with Zero Income. 

The cost of testing people by June could be a tiny fraction of that.

Testing could be done by dogs by then for all we know (e.g. dogs do initial test and the 1% of those that are marked as suspected of having covid are taken to a separate place for a more formal second test).

I respect that you are in the know with the promoter perspective but none of us are in the know as to how rapidly or otherwise sophisticated, affordable testing will develop (and there's still 7 months to go!) nor how strict or otherwise government will be about allowing mass events like football and concerts once some degree of vaccination has taken place in the population.

[Fabrizzo]

https://www.nme.com/news/music/trnsmt-boss-to-pilot-new-covid-testing-plan-for-future-of-live-music-and-festivals-2800511

[Nesser]

6 minutes ago, Fabrizzo said:

https://www.nme.com/news/music/trnsmt-boss-to-pilot-new-covid-testing-plan-for-future-of-live-music-and-festivals-2800511

Quote

 

“We’re keeping close details of the negotiations under wraps but the government we are dealing with is close to signing off on it.

“It would mean people are pre-tested, say 24 to 48 hours before, then temperature tested when they go in – for belt and braces.

“The pilot would be for 1000 people, then those people would be tested after the event. They will perhaps have to quarantine after the event but we are sorting out fine details.

 

Yikes

 

1 hour ago, jannybruck said:

Then why are promoters and booking agents scheduling more and more new stuff for the summer?.

 

Because they are pretending business as usual until they decide to announce the cancellation. Look what any festival did this year.

 

15 minutes ago, xxialac said:

But there's also a cost to having to run a music-related business for yet another 12 months with Zero Income. 

Governments can do that (see what they are imposing to bars in Spain) and one of my fears is that they will go ahead with another blank year for festivals.

[jannybruck]

Just now, Nesser said:

Because they are pretending business as usual until they decide to announce the cancellation. Look what any festival did this year.

Moving or cancelling events is a pain in the arse. There's absolutely no way festivals and promoters would be actively booking in large acts and new festivals (see: Travis Scott at Rolling Loud, one of the biggest artists in the world, announced today) in the knowledge that it's being cancelled. It's unrealistic, costly, and pointless. And you just can't compare where we were in spring this year (when we barely knew anything about the virus or even how it's transmitted) to the next six months (where we now understand the virus, will have a vaccine, and have tools to assist with testing).

[chilirocker]

Once a vaccine is announced, I think there will be real pressure to get events up and running again. A number of economies rely on not just large music events, but sporting events. I can't see them not having audiences at the Euros or the Olympics, I think there will be a real push from countries around the world to put together a robust testing regime, once a vaccine is available as that will shore up resources a bit, whilst they are injecting the most vulnerable in society. By all accounts, the Oxford University vaccine is looking very good - there looks to be millions of doses already in production and ready for delivery once approval is given.

We are also beginning to see tests with results in minutes, I think this will be scaled up, as manufacturing processes get stronger and more streamlined. I know how much of a catastrophe testing and tracing has been in many countries, but in just 6 months, most countries have scaled up from 0 tests per day to in some cases hundreds of thousands daily, why can't there be millions in 8 months time?! I'm beginning to feel a bit more optimistic. I think there will be small-scale indoor gigs (1000 capacity) by February/March, with hopeful festivals by end of June/early July.

[gigi21]

5 hours ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

Very nice, got an article for it?

Lots of articles in the net, but all in Italian...
https://www.fanpage.it/attualita/vaccino-coronavirus-di-lorenzo-a-dicembre-pronte-3-milioni-dosi-entro-giugno-tutti-vaccinati/

Anyway, looking at next spring-summer season, no one knows for sure what this really means for all the reasons the other guys explained + viruses are mutable and vaccine effectiveness through time haven't been sufficiently tested.

But who knows, things are moving fast in every direction, let's wait and see.

[Nesser]

1 hour ago, jannybruck said:

Moving or cancelling events is a pain in the arse. There's absolutely no way festivals and promoters would be actively booking in large acts and new festivals (see: Travis Scott at Rolling Loud, one of the biggest artists in the world, announced today) in the knowledge that it's being cancelled. It's unrealistic, costly, and pointless. And you just can't compare where we were in spring this year (when we barely knew anything about the virus or even how it's transmitted) to the next six months (where we now understand the virus, will have a vaccine, and have tools to assist with testing).

Do you honestly think Rolling Loud announcing Travis today makes it any more likely to happen? Because if so we are in such different positions that I don't know if it's worth it to continue this discussion.

[Quadrophobia]

3 hours ago, jannybruck said:

Then why are promoters and booking agents scheduling more and more new stuff for the summer? Even a quick glance at the eFests sidebar with new announcements every day proves there's at least some confidence within the industry that these could happen or they wouldn't bother trying to book stuff in, spend on marketing, pay deposits etc at all. These aren't just regional festivals either, stuff like Pearl Jam only got announced a couple of weeks ago. Gorillaz just announced an indoor arena tour for the summer, which is even more of a stretch than an outdoor one. Stuff is moving.

 

1 hour ago, jannybruck said:

Moving or cancelling events is a pain in the arse. There's absolutely no way festivals and promoters would be actively booking in large acts and new festivals (see: Travis Scott at Rolling Loud, one of the biggest artists in the world, announced today) in the knowledge that it's being cancelled. It's unrealistic, costly, and pointless. And you just can't compare where we were in spring this year (when we barely knew anything about the virus or even how it's transmitted) to the next six months (where we now understand the virus, will have a vaccine, and have tools to assist with testing).

First post: Many interlocked reasons. First, Announcing stuff brings in at least some liquidity. Second, Keeping up the routine keeps cutomers optimistic. Lastly, and most importantly, admitting now that it is unlikely to go ahead with 2021, will have a devastating financial effect. Customers will demand refunds and investors will pull out. Confronted with an unsolvable situation shortly before the festival, the cancelation will be met with more understanding. Promoters will be able to show that they did everything possible (which, after all, is true) to go through with the festival but had no choice but to cancel.

Second post: This is normally true. I know of a tour that was announced last month that has dates set, whilst it is clear they won't actually be happening. There are replacement dates in 2022 already and the dates that have been announced are just an "extended presale". The costs attached are low, because the actual planning, marketing and physical preparations aren't happening until this time next year.

[xxialac]

There’s a rumour on Reddit that the festival is having to let staff go and they’ve abandoned hopes for 2021. Could be a false rumour of course but looks vaguely credible. 
 

Anyone on here know someone who works for the festival?

[Fabrizzo]

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/ocio-y-cultura/20201102/ultimo-concierto-salas-espanolas-denuncian-crisis-extrema-8185911

[burnleynotbarcelona]

18 hours ago, xxialac said:

There’s a rumour on Reddit that the festival is having to let staff go and they’ve abandoned hopes for 2021. Could be a false rumour of course but looks vaguely credible. 
 

Anyone on here know someone who works for the festival?

I’d seen that thread. Some very interesting posts but, yes, could do with some validation or otherwise.

[Orens]

Well, at least one good thing has happened last night

 

[xxialac]

24 minutes ago, Orens said:

Well, at least one good thing has happened last night

 

Very solid, if unremarkable. Pretty sure they'll be touring at the first opportunity.

[xxialac]

A vaccine against Covid-19 is in sight, with the announcement of the first interim results in large-scale trials showing the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate is 90% effective, according to the manufacturers. Their analysis shows a much better performance than most experts had hoped for.

The high percentage of those protected makes the findings compelling. Regulators have said they would approve a vaccine that is just 50% effective – protecting half those who get it. The company says there are no serious side-effects.

Speedy licensing could mean the first doses being given to healthcare workers by the end of the year

[JedTheHumanoid]

1 hour ago, xxialac said:

A vaccine against Covid-19 is in sight, with the announcement of the first interim results in large-scale trials showing the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate is 90% effective, according to the manufacturers. Their analysis shows a much better performance than most experts had hoped for.

The high percentage of those protected makes the findings compelling. Regulators have said they would approve a vaccine that is just 50% effective – protecting half those who get it. The company says there are no serious side-effects.

Speedy licensing could mean the first doses being given to healthcare workers by the end of the year

First the US elections, and now this. Great week

This thing is obviously still far far from over, but finally some optimistic signs that 2021 will look much better than 2020

 

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, JedTheHumanoid said:

First the US elections, and now this. Great week

This thing is obviously still far far from over, but finally some optimistic signs that 2021 will look much better than 2020

 

Biden's top 3 priorities for his first year in office are a more collegiate approach to foreign policy, restoration of WHO membership and safeguarding indie music festivals.

[xxialac]

Sir John Bell, a regis professor of medicine at Oxford University who sits on the UK’s vaccine taskforce, has said he believes “with some confidence” that life should return to normal by spring next year following the Pfizer/BioNTech announcement. Bell is one of the UK’s leading experts on this topic, so his prediction carries significant weight – not just for the UK but for other countries, too.

Bell said he was “really delighted” with the news and described the vaccine’s preliminary efficacy of 90% as “amazing”. He said there would be distribution challenges but that these were not insurmountable. It was likely that “more than one” vaccine would be rolled out in the UK by the end of the year or early next year, he said. “It rolls the pitch for other vaccines because I can’t see any reason now why we shouldn’t have a handful of good vaccines available. It’s a major step.”

On BBC Radio 4’s World at One, the presenter, Sarah Montague, asked Bell if the vaccine meant that life should be returning to normal by spring.

Bell answered: “Yes, yes, yes. I’m probably the first guy to say that but I will say that with some confidence.”

Primavera is in late spring...

[Nesser]

52 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Biden's top 3 priorities for his first year in office are a more collegiate approach to foreign policy, restoration of WHO membership and safeguarding indie music festivals.

That's funny.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/08/joe-biden-rave-act-2002-music-mdma

As soon as I read the Pzifer thing I knew I'd see you around here

[JedTheHumanoid]

27 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Sir John Bell, a regis professor of medicine at Oxford University who sits on the UK’s vaccine taskforce, has said he believes “with some confidence” that life should return to normal by spring next year following the Pfizer/BioNTech announcement. Bell is one of the UK’s leading experts on this topic, so his prediction carries significant weight – not just for the UK but for other countries, too.

Bell said he was “really delighted” with the news and described the vaccine’s preliminary efficacy of 90% as “amazing”. He said there would be distribution challenges but that these were not insurmountable. It was likely that “more than one” vaccine would be rolled out in the UK by the end of the year or early next year, he said. “It rolls the pitch for other vaccines because I can’t see any reason now why we shouldn’t have a handful of good vaccines available. It’s a major step.”

On BBC Radio 4’s World at One, the presenter, Sarah Montague, asked Bell if the vaccine meant that life should be returning to normal by spring.

Bell answered: “Yes, yes, yes. I’m probably the first guy to say that but I will say that with some confidence.”

Primavera is in late spring...

June still seems unlikely, but this give some hope for August

[xxialac]

Just now, JedTheHumanoid said:

June still seems unlikely, but this give some hope for August

He's putting his (significant) reputation on the line to say 'Yes, yes, yes, Spring with some confidence'. Scientists are normally very guarded.

Plus there's going to be good testing by June.