Primavera Sound 2021

[Andrej]

Have a friend in the industry, and he tells me there was a big online conference this past week, Eurosonic Holland, with agents promoters etc. And pretty much everyone feels like June / July period is definitely lost, with around 15-20% of them still giving some little hope for Aug / Sep period. But most of them now turning to 2022.

 

 

[xxialac]

1 hour ago, Andrej said:

Have a friend in the industry, and he tells me there was a big online conference this past week, Eurosonic Holland, with agents promoters etc. And pretty much everyone feels like June / July period is definitely lost, with around 15-20% of them still giving some little hope for Aug / Sep period. But most of them now turning to 2022.

 

 

God that's depressing!

[charlierc]

15 hours ago, Andrej said:

Have a friend in the industry, and he tells me there was a big online conference this past week, Eurosonic Holland, with agents promoters etc. And pretty much everyone feels like June / July period is definitely lost, with around 15-20% of them still giving some little hope for Aug / Sep period. But most of them now turning to 2022.

 

 

Wouldn't be a surprise sadly. I'm hopeful some kind of small scale gatherings might be a possibility but we need to go crazy fast in shutting this shit down if the summer isn't going to go in the bin like the last one did.

[Nesser]

15 hours ago, Andrej said:

Have a friend in the industry, and he tells me there was a big online conference this past week, Eurosonic Holland, with agents promoters etc. And pretty much everyone feels like June / July period is definitely lost, with around 15-20% of them still giving some little hope for Aug / Sep period. But most of them now turning to 2022.

 

 

 

 

Former Benicassim booker

[xxialac]

It feels like there's enough hope for them to plot September.

Then in a few months we will know if that's realistic or a pipe dream.

I think we can discount hope that anything other than a very low % of attendees would have been vaccinated but be positive that a very high % of the most at risk will have been populated.

And then there's testing, lower rates due to the season and even politicians favouring the economy over keeping the rate right down. 

A tough call right now.

[riseupandkill]

On 1/17/2021 at 2:41 PM, xxialac said:

It feels like there's enough hope for them to plot September.

Then in a few months we will know if that's realistic or a pipe dream.

yeh that's interesting, i wonder how much they can plan/reserve without committing necessarily. 

[xxialac]

27 minutes ago, riseupandkill said:

yeh that's interesting, i wonder how much they can plan/reserve without committing necessarily. 

Consensus seems to be that 'decision-time' at which point they start incurring cost is about 4 months before.

If there's a chance then surely they'll go for it. I suspect we'll get new lineup in Feb.

There's talk in the UK of insurance provision. Maybe same in Catalunya.

Primavera definitely one of the most prominent events in the calendar and they're trying like crazy to make Mobile World Congress happen in June which is a similar size and beneficial impact on the local economy. That one looks too soon.

 

[mln]

EU officials have some quite optimistic plans for this summer:

https://www.iq-mag.net/2021/01/live-aid-post-covid-concerts-proposed-eu/#.YAXMLxjTlkx

[gigi21]

14 hours ago, mashinko said:

20,000 people in New Zealand attend biggest concert since lockdown

https://www.nme.com/news/music/20000-people-in-new-zealand-attend-biggest-concert-since-lockdown-2859251?fbclid=IwAR0puAwsFufZ6KGdFCoupSyljAWN2piquJYe4jacL9jjS38cJ7_ACeYdajw

interesting what Isle Of Wight Festival boss said: “I think you’d probably need for 50 per cent of the audience to be vaccinated, and for 50 per cent to be able to get a test in a very short period of time, like five-to-10 minutes.”

Let's see what happens with vaccines during the next few weeks... Not so much time left to make decisions about the early summer festival season. Here in Italy 1.2M people had their first shot at the moment.

[xxialac]

32 minutes ago, gigi21 said:

interesting what Isle Of Wight Festival boss said: “I think you’d probably need for 50 per cent of the audience to be vaccinated, and for 50 per cent to be able to get a test in a very short period of time, like five-to-10 minutes.”

Let's see what happens with vaccines during the next few weeks... Not so much time left to make decisions about the early summer festival season. Here in Italy 1.2M people had their first shot at the moment.

That's disappointing and not sure where he's come up with that.

Given the young age of the audience, there's no chance of 50% of an audience being vaccinated by June anywhere in the world and by September, very unlikely too.

[xxialac]

5 minutes ago, xxialac said:

That's disappointing and not sure where he's come up with that.

Given the young age of the audience, there's no chance of 50% of an audience being vaccinated by June anywhere in the covid-ridden world and by September, very unlikely too.

 

[JedTheHumanoid]

49 minutes ago, xxialac said:

That's disappointing and not sure where he's come up with that.

 

with all due respect - the only thing the festival organisers know that we don't is how long before the festival they need to postpone/cancel. On all other aspects - their guess is as good as ours.

the fact is that no one knows at this point what affect the vaccinations will have and what percentage we need. And it's not just the percentage that matters - it also matters who got it - if you get most of the 60+ vaccinated - you can live with higher infection rate as most of them will be asymptomatic or get it very easy (yes, there will be difficult cases and deaths, but in the economy vs health discussion, things will lean towards economy in such scenario) 

Personally I'm getting less optimistic on September happening. Local events maybe on some of the countries that vaccine fast, but for an international festival it's more complicated - there will be red countries that Spain will not allow entering from (or require quarantine), there will be countries that will not allow people to come back from Spain without quarantine, flights might still be limited, there are just too many things that can go wrong...

[xxialac]

29 minutes ago, JedTheHumanoid said:

with all due respect - the only thing the festival organisers know that we don't is how long before the festival they need to postpone/cancel. On all other aspects - their guess is as good as ours.

the fact is that no one knows at this point what affect the vaccinations will have and what percentage we need. And it's not just the percentage that matters - it also matters who got it - if you get most of the 60+ vaccinated - you can live with higher infection rate as most of them will be asymptomatic or get it very easy (yes, there will be difficult cases and deaths, but in the economy vs health discussion, things will lean towards economy in such scenario) 

Personally I'm getting less optimistic on September happening. Local events maybe on some of the countries that vaccine fast, but for an international festival it's more complicated - there will be red countries that Spain will not allow entering from (or require quarantine), there will be countries that will not allow people to come back from Spain without quarantine, flights might still be limited, there are just too many things that can go wrong...

What I found disappointing was that he is a festival promoter and as such you'd expect them to be talking up the chances (overoptimistic) so if he sees no way through, it's not very encouraging.

I'm still 50/50 on September but I don't think aviation will be a problem at least.

The aviation sector absolutely relies on Summer passengers. If there are problems with flying as late as September, half of the sector would never recover and that can't happen.

I'm sure flights will be allowed, especially for European citizens and as a minimum an exemption for working people (i.e. bands) working from other jurisdictions. Quarantine will be binned by then IMO and standardised international testing will take over and be more reliable.

[puckno]

Testing will never be reliable, as it might take up to 5 days from infection to you show up positive on a test. An additional requirement in this case will have be equal infection rate between countries.

This will also be the problem with testing as a marker at a mass event, it is simply not good enough if your goal is to avoid a spread at the mass event (even though the Primavera research experiment was successful).

Vaccination passports might be reliable, if further research show vaccination prevent you from being infectious. At the current this is not concluded. It is considered likely but not proven. There are big initiatives in both EU and the aviation industry with regards to common vaccination passport standards, scanning etc.

So I expect the opposite of what you just described: I expect testing to be binned, and focus to be on vaccination passports. When we get to late summer I think vaccination will be a requirement for international air travel, until the virus no longer is a threat for our societies. Anti-vaccers or not yet got the vaccine: sorry, have to wait.

If a mass events like a music festival were to be allowed, vaccination could be a requirement to attend, at least for 2021. Of course you could argue against it, young people etc etc. but I do think governments want to err on the safe side.

[xxialac]

Testing is considered reliable enough for flights (close confinement in a tube) now when the infection rate is sky enough and I think it will be considered 'good enough' for outdoor festivals once enough people have been vaccinated which reduces the R and the death count.

Vaccination as a requirement to fly in the Summer makes no sense. The people most likely to fly (the young) won't have been vaccinated once (let alone received two doses). And vaccinations are hardly completely reliable either, both by not working or by still allowing for asymptomatic transmission! 

The infection numbers will fall dramatically in the Summer, this is an event entirely outdoors (or can be) with ventilation being covid's major enemy and there will be good, rapid testing by September. That is the festival's best hope in my opinion. 

Edited January 19, 2021 by xxialac

[daveje]

Still a lot of wishful thinking in this thread.

[puckno]

55 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Vaccination as a requirement to fly in the Summer makes no sense.

Well, at least it makes sense to such a degree that it is debated among EU-leaders these very days; from Schengen visa info news; 

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/eu-commission-president-vaccination-certificate-is-a-medical-requirement/

"... In his letter, Mitsotakis pointed out that though vaccination should not become an obligation, but rather a matter of choice, only those who receive their vaccines should be permitted to travel from one EU country to another. ... "

"... The idea seems to have been welcomed by Von der Leyen, who told Portuguese journalists that she largely agrees with the idea, ... "

[Gilgamesh69]

Whatever happens, i'm just hoping to see Lana return to the rerereschduled fest

[Quadrophobia]

47 minutes ago, daveje said:

Still a lot of wishful thinking in this thread.

Yeah. From what I've heard, everyones priority in the industry is delaying the moment cancellations will be announced to keep liquidity. With no security that numbers will be down in all the relevant places in September, plannig anything concrete is close to impossible. And the majortiy of European countries has no end of critical infection rates in sight. 

Everyone is mildly optiistic about club shows in Fall, because their small scale can be controlled, but even that is realative to lower infection numbers.

[JedTheHumanoid]

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

Testing is considered reliable enough for flights (close confinement in a tube) now when the infection rate is sky enough and I think it will be considered 'good enough' for outdoor festivals once enough people have been vaccinated which reduces the R and the death count.

Vaccination as a requirement to fly in the Summer makes no sense. The people most likely to fly (the young) won't have been vaccinated once (let alone received two doses). And vaccinations are hardly completely reliable either, both by not working or by still allowing for asymptomatic transmission! 

in many countries the direction is to set a 'green passport' that you will get from one of:

1. vaccinated

2. got negative test in the last 72 hours

3. got corona and healed in the past 6 months

 

Of course it's not 100% bulletproof, but nothing is. and it's better than use only vaccinations which are still not available to everyone, or tests that can be a logistic hell for mass events like this. The solution will have to be something that relies on both testing and vaccinations

[bluenova]

1 hour ago, daveje said:

Still a lot of wishful thinking in this thread.

Now, I hope I'm not insulting you here Dave - but there's a reasonable chance that the vaccinations will hit your (and my) age group by the Summer.

The festivals could just raise the minimum age for entry 🙂

Edited January 19, 2021 by bluenova

[xxialac]

1 hour ago, puckno said:

Well, at least it makes sense to such a degree that it is debated among EU-leaders these very days; from Schengen visa info news; 

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/eu-commission-president-vaccination-certificate-is-a-medical-requirement/

"... In his letter, Mitsotakis pointed out that though vaccination should not become an obligation, but rather a matter of choice, only those who receive their vaccines should be permitted to travel from one EU country to another. ... "

"... The idea seems to have been welcomed by Von der Leyen, who told Portuguese journalists that she largely agrees with the idea, ... "

Fair enough but I was talking about this Summer not in the future when more have been vaccinated.

You cannot practically say 'vaccines are mandatory for travel' when insufficient numbers have been vaccinated or you kill the travel industry.

By September we will be able to fly with testing, not with vaccines. Last Summer didn't even need either. 

[puckno]

Lets agree to disagree.

[xxialac]

4 minutes ago, puckno said:

Lets agree to disagree.

Agree : )

[puckno]

This will be a topic in a EU council meeting late Thursday, so there might be some indication on which direction this will take very soon;

"... We will discuss the suitability of a common approach to certification, as well as, if appropriate, under which circumstances certificates could be used. ... "  https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/47910/invitation-letter-21-jan-vtc-on-covid-19.pdf