Primavera Sound 2021

[xxialac]

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0119/1190747-covid-europe-vaccines/

Seems too good to be true but it does point to supply not being an issue at least.

Get jabbing!

[burnleynotbarcelona]

EU common vaccination certificate will not come with travel rights

 

Daniel Boffey

The EU’s member states will agree by the end of the month on the form of a common vaccination certificate but there are no plans to give travel rights to holders of such documents, the European commission has said.

The paperwork will instead be used to ensure pan-European recognition of citizens’ vaccination records although other possible uses will be debated by the bloc’s leaders at a virtual summit on Thursday.

The commission’s vice-president, Margaritis Schinas, said the use of the certificates as a passport was “imaginable” but only once sufficient people had been covered and an agreement was found between all the capitals on the conditions of use.

While countries reliant on tourism such as Greece and Spain are keen on pushing vaccination passports as a means to encourage travel, others, including Germany and France, are sceptical that it would be appropriate to discriminate between travellers on the basis of medical records.

The EU will seek, however, for such certificates to be recognised beyond the bloc’s borders, Schinas said, raising the prospect of UK travellers being included should Downing Street U-turn on its current rejection of the concept.

The commission’s plan was announced alongside a proposed timetable for vaccinations across the bloc’s 27 member states. At least 80% of those aged over 80 will be given a jab by March 2021, as will 80% of health and social care professionals. By the end of the summer, the commission has said the member states should have vaccinated 70% of the entire adult population.

In a thinly veiled reference to the UK’s vaccination programme, Schinas said the pace of rolling out jabs should increase but that it was “not a race between countries but a race against time”. 

“In Europe, we have opted for safety first,” he said.

The commission also called on the capitals to increase their genome sequencing to at least 5% and preferably 10% of positive test results as part of an effort to identify the new variants of the virus. The commission said many member states were currently testing under 1% of samples.

[burnleynotbarcelona]

“By the end of the summer, the commission has said the member states should have vaccinated 70% of the entire adult population”.

End of the summer.

[puckno]

So an interesting question then is how large percentage of the total population 70% of the adult population will be. 50%? Then still unfortunately some distance to herd immunity and precautions still will have to be made, even though a lot will open up.

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, puckno said:

So an interesting question then is how large percentage of the total population 70% of the adult population will be. 50%? Then still unfortunately some distance to herd immunity and precautions still will have to be made, even though a lot will open up.

Yep, precautions like insisting that people can only congregate in big numbers if it's outdoors and that they must be tested before big events.

The WHO has said herd immunity is unrealistic, even by the end of 2021.

[daveje]

Evidence suggests that young, asymptomatic carriers are the most responsible for spreading COVID. They're the last people who'll get vaccinated, and the people most likely to want to attend large international music festivals. Join the dots.

[Quadrophobia]

14 minutes ago, daveje said:

Evidence suggests that young, asymptomatic carriers are the most responsible for spreading COVID. They're the last people who'll get vaccinated, and the people most likely to want to attend large international music festivals. Join the dots.

Yeah, hardly anybody that typically attends festivals will be vaccinated in continental Europe by September.

My guesses would be that festivals in 2021 would be

- Small scale, 5000 people at max
- national, almost no foreign atendees and only EU and UK-Bands
- mandatory mask wearing
- required distancing in many areas
- only from JUly Through mid-September

As for bigger events, I really don't see a viable scenario on the table anymore. 

 

[Degu]

11 hours ago, Quadrophobia said:

Yeah, hardly anybody that typically attends festivals will be vaccinated in continental Europe by September.

My guesses would be that festivals in 2021 would be

- Small scale, 5000 people at max
- national, almost no foreign atendees and only EU and UK-Bands
- mandatory mask wearing
- required distancing in many areas
- only from JUly Through mid-September

As for bigger events, I really don't see a viable scenario on the table anymore. 

 

In Spain, Wizink center is prepared to host concerts of 5000 people today with mask and distancing. I don't believe that in 6 months we will be the same

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Degu said:

In Spain, Wizink center is prepared to host concerts of 5000 people today with mask and distancing. I don't believe that in 6 months we will be the same

In almost 9 months 😉

So much has changed that 9 months back seems a lifetime ago.

[Ohjesus]

11 minutes ago, xxialac said:

In almost 9 months 😉

So much has changed that 9 months back seems a lifetime ago.

Nine months back feels pretty similar to be honest, apart from the vaccine. Not to get all doomy...

Edited January 20, 2021 by Ohjesus

[xxialac]

Just now, Ohjesus said:

Nine months back feels pretty similar to be honest, apart from the vaccine 

Very fair point.

10 months ago then!  On that day (in the UK at least) people hadn't even gone into the first lockdown, the Cheltenham festival had just taken place that week with 60,000 attendees packed together and practically no one in the whole country wore a mask.

[mln]

39 minutes ago, Degu said:

In Spain, Wizink center is prepared to host concerts of 5000 people today with mask and distancing. I don't believe that in 6 months we will be the same

6 months and outdoors, that makes a difference.

25 minutes ago, Ohjesus said:

Nine months back feels pretty similar to be honest, apart from the vaccine. Not to get all doomy...

A situation where we have the vaccine that is going to free us from the virus soon is quite different from a situation 9 monts ago when no one even dreamt about having a vaccine in 2021. Saying 'apart from the vaccine' sounds like dismissing the value of this tool!

Edited January 20, 2021 by mln

[Montag]

If the vaccine works, once say all the over 50s are vaccinated how many deaths would we have a day? It is surely going to be extremely low, especially over the summer months. We are only a few months away from that in the UK.

 

 

[Ohjesus]

34 minutes ago, mln said:

A situation where we have the vaccine that is going to free us from the virus soon is quite different from a situation 9 monts ago when no one even dreamt about having a vaccine in 2021. Saying 'apart from the vaccine' sounds like dismissing the value of this tool!

Nope. Just saying the vaccine feels like the only difference. Not dismissing it. 
 

I’m still in lockdown and even more people are dying in the UK and I’m still on the efest forum debating if primavera will happen in September.  
 

I have just got over Covid though so at least I’m ok for a few months. Apparently. 

[mln]

1 minute ago, Ohjesus said:

Nope. Just saying the vaccine feels like the only difference. Not dismissing it. 

The only difference, but quite a big one. It gives us some hope regarding the upcoming months. Something we didn't have 9 months ago...

 

5 minutes ago, Ohjesus said:

I’m still in lockdown and even more people are dying in the UK and I’m still on the efest forum debating if primavera will happen in September.

Yeah, but that's now. The vaccination process has just started. We will hopefully be in a completely different situation in 6 months time due to the vaccines, number of people that got the virus, and weather. Will it be enough to have our festivals back? I don't know. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't evaluate the chances of having it back based on what's happening now...

 

9 minutes ago, Ohjesus said:

I have just got over Covid though so at least I’m ok for a few months. Apparently. 

Hope you are well now and didn't have any serious symptoms!

[Ohjesus]

6 minutes ago, mln said:

17 minutes ago, Ohjesus said:

 

Yeah, but that's now. The vaccination process has just started. We will hopefully be in a completely different situation in 6 months time due to the vaccines, number of people that got the virus, and weather. Will it be enough to have our festivals back? I don't know. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't evaluate the chances of having it back based on what's happening now...

I just said nine months ago feels similar to now. I’m not talking about the future. Apart from on here which is increasingly depressing 

[Degu]

1 hour ago, Montag said:

If the vaccine works, once say all the over 50s are vaccinated how many deaths would we have a day? It is surely going to be extremely low, especially over the summer months. We are only a few months away from that in the UK.

 

 

The vaccines works.

[MagneticField85]

With all respect, some of you focus on event capacity, and honestly I think it is not a key factor in this crisis. I would reccomend not using "X venue is ready for Y capacity show" as an argument to expect festivals this summer or any general admission event. Main factor is stopping spead of Covid, and currently the only way is via social distancing. Any circunstances that make an event unable to secure social distance at any time make that event a no go.

You can't translate the logic behing organizing an event in an arena (with tenths of bars, seated attendees, many gates, etc) where it might be possible to have a fully social distant experience thanks to already existing infrastructure, with a festival. No matter if it's 500 or 5k. If a promoter is ready to put enough bars, gates and chairs to secure social distancing for 20k, it could be done (in theory).

In other words, general admission events (be 1k or 50k) will only be back when certain ammount of population is vaccinated, no matter capacity. The only potential workaround I forsee for events up to say 3k is extremely reliable quick testing and the need of testing a progressive way back to the old normality. 

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, MagneticField85 said:

With all respect, some of you focus on event capacity, and honestly I think it is not a key factor in this crisis. I would reccomend not using "X venue is ready for Y capacity show" as an argument to expect festivals this summer or any general admission event. Main factor is stopping spead of Covid, and currently the only way is via social distancing. Any circunstances that make an event unable to secure social distance at any time make that event a no go.

You can't translate the logic behing organizing an event in an arena (with tenths of bars, seated attendees, many gates, etc) where it might be possible to have a fully social distant experience thanks to already existing infrastructure, with a festival. No matter if it's 500 or 5k. If a promoter is ready to put enough bars, gates and chairs to secure social distancing for 20k, it could be done (in theory).

In other words, general admission events (be 1k or 50k) will only be back when certain ammount of population is vaccinated, no matter capacity. The only potential workaround I forsee for events up to say 3k is extremely reliable quick testing and the need of testing a progressive way back to the old normality. 

Well it's lucky then that Primavera is a controlled environment where they can check everyone who gets in.

And extremely reliable quick testing is on the way. Certainly will be miles better by September.

If 3k can be tested, so can 60k. Just a question of good logistics.

[MagneticField85]

1 hour ago, Ohjesus said:

I just said nine months ago feels similar to now. I’m not talking about the future. Apart from on here which is increasingly depressing 

You've got a point, there's a certain "9 moths bias" around. We think anything is possible in 9 months, so for sure normality will be back in 9 months. And so far hasn't been the case.

[MagneticField85]

2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Well it's lucky then that Primavera is a controlled environment where they can check everyone who gets in.

And extremely reliable quick testing is on the way. Certainly will be miles better by September.

If 3k can be tested, so can 60k. Just a question of good logistics.

My take: I'm extremely skeptical about the logistics of testing 60k people. I see 2 scenarios, both have big stoppers:

- Testing everybody on site prior to entrance: safest, you are tested and you are in. Decreases the risk of letting in people with covid. But the logistics of testing 60k people on a space keeping social distance. I'm unable to describe the amount of time, square meters and workers required to do it properly
- Attendees bring a recent negative test: well, that increases exponentially the possibility of false negatives. And remember, on site there's no social distancing and music shows with no social distance are objectevely 'super spreading events' (there's skin with skin contact, shouts, etc). 

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I hope you see the complications of 'quick' testing

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, MagneticField85 said:

My take: I'm extremely skeptical about the logistics of testing 60k people. I see 2 scenarios, both have big stoppers:

- Testing everybody on site prior to entrance: safest, you are tested and you are in. Decreases the risk of letting in people with covid. But the logistics of testing 60k people on a space keeping social distance. I'm unable to describe the amount of time, square meters and workers required to do it properly

- Attendees bring a recent negative test: well, that increases exponentially the possibility of false negatives. And remember, on site there's no social distancing and music shows with no social distance are objectevely 'super spreading events' (there's skin with skin contact, shouts, etc). 

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I hope you see the complications of 'quick' testing

Those are good challenges.
One thing the Primavera site does have in its favour is space! You could for example do testing in the afternoon before the event. 

But I'm envisaging the second option.

You make some good points but I think it will be mitigated by a) testing catching most of the infected people b) there being very low levels of Covid in the population by September c) outside acting to reduce the 'spreading potential' significantly d) the high % of vulnerable people being protected and the hospitals no longer in danger of being stretched.

We can never have 'zero risk' and this might be seen as an 'acceptable risk', similar to flights being allowed.  

[Nicklord]

1 hour ago, Montag said:

If the vaccine works, once say all the over 50s are vaccinated how many deaths would we have a day? It is surely going to be extremely low, especially over the summer months. We are only a few months away from that in the UK.

 

 

Yeah, I don't see a problem there. Deaths for people under 35 are on the level of statistical error (is that a term in English?) and when older people get vaccinated the only people who'll have the virus would be young people who're able to survive in 99.88% cases, according to google

[puckno]

You still do not want a rampage spread of this virus before Barcelona get to herd immunity levels.

[MagneticField85]

5 minutes ago, Nicklord said:

Yeah, I don't see a problem there. Deaths for people under 35 are on the level of statistical error (is that a term in English?) and when older people get vaccinated the only people who'll have the virus would be young people who're able to survive in 99.88% cases, according to google

It's no as uni-dimensional. Covid survivors use ICU's and resources that in normal circumstances woyld be allocated to other patients/cares. These people that have the access blocked due Covid have to be considered too; their levels of mortality and morbidity are part of the equiation.