Primavera Sound 2021

[Nicklord]

1 hour ago, MagneticField85 said:

It's no as uni-dimensional. Covid survivors use ICU's and resources that in normal circumstances woyld be allocated to other patients/cares. These people that have the access blocked due Covid have to be considered too; their levels of mortality and morbidity are part of the equiation. 

Yeah, but still. No that I have numbers but it should be enough places in hospital for young people with covid. I mean, I'm not saying young people shouldn't take care from covid but if people older than 50 are vaccinated younger people won't overuse the system. 

I don't have the exact numbers to support my theory 😄 I'm just saying with the vaccine resources and people needed to take care of the ill would reduce dramatically

[Newjem]

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

a) testing catching most of the infected people

PCR tests yes, but those take way too long. Antigen tests are fast but won't catch most of the infected people. In my country (Czechia) for example, we use tests which catch only about 30% of the infected people (the most infectious obviously). There are of course better tests on the market but none of them reach 80-100% efficiency. 

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

b) there being very low levels of Covid in the population by September

Probably true but some experts think that despite the vaccination there will be another wave in the autumn (not as bad as right now or last year in terms of hospitalizations and deaths but still...).

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

c) outside acting to reduce the 'spreading potential' significantly

That's true but there are certain festival activities which on the other hand increase the 'spreading potential' - singing, mosh-pits etc.

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

d) the high % of vulnerable people being protected and the hospitals no longer in danger of being stretched

That depends on how effective all those vaccines will be. Clinic studies' results are great but many things were underestimated which raises some questions. For example, a group of Australian scientists pointed out last week that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine may not be effective enough to generate herd immunity. We need to wait for some proper data from Israel and the UK which will take a few more weeks/months.

[xxialac]

17 minutes ago, Newjem said:

PCR tests yes, but those take way too long. Antigen tests are fast but won't catch most of the infected people. In my country (Czechia) for example, we use tests which catch only about 30% of the infected people (the most infectious obviously). There are of course better tests on the market but none of them reach 80-100% efficiency. 

Probably true but some experts think that despite the vaccination there will be another wave in the autumn (not as bad as right now or last year in terms of hospitalizations and deaths but still...).

That's true but there are certain festival activities which on the other hand increase the 'spreading potential' - singing, mosh-pits etc.

That depends on how effective all those vaccines will be. Clinic studies' results are great but many things were underestimated which raises some questions. For example, a group of Australian scientists pointed out last week that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine may not be effective enough to generate herd immunity. We need to wait for some proper data from Israel and the UK which will take a few more weeks/months.

Very good points.

There may be another smaller wave in the Autumn but even delayed Primavera is anticipated to fall in Summer, far from the peak.

[Judithmt]

17 hours ago, xxialac said:

Very good points.

There may be another smaller wave in the Autumn but even delayed Primavera is anticipated to fall in Summer, far from the peak.

It's actually summer now in South Africa, where they are experiencing the second wave and a modified version of the virus. We can keep speculating, but until everyone is vaccinated (not just the western world) there is a change the virus might still spread and variations might develop that won't be covered by these vaccins. So you might need to modify and re-administer the vaccins. Moreover I see too many stories about people who did not end up in hospital but still feel tired as hell. I want to be optimistic, but just don't see the big ones happening for me this summer. 

[Yelo, the Parmiggiana]

12 minutes ago, Judithmt said:

It's actually summer now in South Africa, where they are experiencing the second wave and a modified version of the virus. We can keep speculating, but until everyone is vaccinated (not just the western world) there is a change the virus might still spread and variations might develop that won't be covered by these vaccins. So you might need to modify and re-administer the vaccins. Moreover I see too many stories about people who did not end up in hospital but still feel tired as hell. I want to be optimistic, but just don't see the big ones happening for me this summer. 

Yep, just healed up from the 'rona: it was not much of a deal, being 26 and in relatively decent health, but I was really unable to do anything other than lying down on the sofa and moan for 3 straight days. The whole thing went soft on me, but other friends of mine got the other end of the stick and were not able to leave their perimeters for almost a month due to positivity or flu, tireness and such.

Definetely would not suggest anybody to leave their country if they do not have the antibodies to avoid it, a festival is out of question in my opinion, no matter the population of it. 

I personally gave up my chances on Primavera this year, which was the only festival with a lineup so wow to force me to buy a ticket with a year in advantage... Let's hope for 2022 with a full regular festival season, rather than a one-harmed, dangerous and pricey one in 2021 

[daveje]

27 minutes ago, Judithmt said:

It's actually summer now in South Africa, where they are experiencing the second wave and a modified version of the virus. We can keep speculating, but until everyone is vaccinated (not just the western world) there is a change the virus might still spread and variations might develop that won't be covered by these vaccins. So you might need to modify and re-administer the vaccins. Moreover I see too many stories about people who did not end up in hospital but still feel tired as hell. I want to be optimistic, but just don't see the big ones happening for me this summer. 

Here in the Netherlands they're talking about further peaks in March/April due to new variants. The same thing can happen in other Northern Hemisphere countries. And right now, the size of the current wave is much bigger than the original one last Spring.

The point is that there's every likelihood that we'll go into summer with a much higher load of cases than we had last summer, when the festival season was shut.

[Sean1234321]

Is anybody looking for, or know someone who's looking for, a ticket? Because I have one to sell through Dice, it's just a standard general admission full festival ticket (£170).

[Quadrophobia]

On 1/19/2021 at 9:58 PM, mashinko said:

No way! If they allow events up to 10k people, I'm pretty sure it will be just like before, without masks and distance. 

Something like this 🙂

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CKMK8UZAm3R/?igshid=1rpsffwhga224

Thats in New Zealand where they have zero covid, something that will not happen in Europe anywhere this or next year. 

What I'm saying is, a local outbreak at a festival with 5000 attendees is less likely and easier to control. Also larger festival sites for less people allow social distancing. 

Germany and Spain, amongst others are experiencing vaccine bottlenecks right now. Lockdowns in the entirety of Europe work, but far too slowly. Mutations are more infectious and make the situation even less controlable. The vaccine protects against catching the disease, but apparently not against its spread and we have no idea whatsoever how long the vaccine yields protection. Put simply, right now, chances for a 60.000 people international music festival are looking very gloomy.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Quadrophobia

[xxialac]

Glastonbury in June has bitten the dust already...

Edited January 21, 2021 by xxialac

[burnleynotbarcelona]

Article mentions cut off dates...

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jan/21/glastonbury-2021-officially-cancelled-due-to-covid-pandemic

[Quadrophobia]

Just now, burnleynotbarcelona said:

Article mentions cut off dates...

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jan/21/glastonbury-2021-officially-cancelled-due-to-covid-pandemic

This is what I was talking about a couple of weeks ago. Any Major June Festival must be certain it can go ahead by January. This will bring a cascade of cancellations. 

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Quadrophobia said:

This is what I was talking about a couple of weeks ago. Any Major June Festival must be certain it can go ahead by January. This will bring a cascade of cancellations. 

or postponements : )

[burnleynotbarcelona]

1 minute ago, Quadrophobia said:

This is what I was talking about a couple of weeks ago. Any Major June Festival must be certain it can go ahead by January. This will bring a cascade of cancellations. 

Yes, it will. I think it's fair to say that the "direction of travel" is that there won't be a festival season this year. Not in June, not in September, certainly not on the scale of Primavera.

[bluenova]

1 minute ago, Quadrophobia said:

This is what I was talking about a couple of weeks ago. Any Major June Festival must be certain it can go ahead by January. This will bring a cascade of cancellations. 

To be fair, Glastonbury isn't just any major festival. It's a much larger undertaking than any other festival in Europe, and is set on a working farm. And, while it often rains, it's still a camping festival in England, which means there is less scope for moving it beyond late August.

[xxialac]

Personally I think it's far too early to rule out September as we don't know about positive possible developments with testing, vaccines or even whether governments will choose opening the economy against the advice of the health experts. But respect others will have a different view.

[Quadrophobia]

4 minutes ago, bluenova said:

To be fair, Glastonbury isn't just any major festival. It's a much larger undertaking than any other festival in Europe, and is set on a working farm. And, while it often rains, it's still a camping festival in England, which means there is less scope for moving it beyond late August.

That is certainly true, but the same goes for Rock Werchter, Pukkelpop, Hurricane/Southside, Rock am Ring/Rock im Park, Open'er and most notably Roskilde which will all be too early to have any chance of happening. A large number of tours will be, or have already been pushed back and later festivals will have a much smaller pool of artists, because for many the short window of festivals that could be possible in September is not sufficient to make money off. 

I know of one August festival with a 70.000 people crowd that is gonna announce its cancellation in the coming weeks.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Quadrophobia

[JedTheHumanoid]

I think we discussed it last year when Glasto got cancelled - it's a camping festival, which means they need more time to prepare (meaning cancelation needs to come earlier), and more important - imposes far more complications in enforcing social distancing.

So it's being cancelled is obviously not a good sign, but doesn't mean Primavera goes down the same path (beside what we're already sure of anyway, that June's not gonna happen)

The September hopes are still alive. 

[thespiral]

15 minutes ago, burnleynotbarcelona said:

Yes, it will. I think it's fair to say that the "direction of travel" is that there won't be a festival season this year. Not in June, not in September, certainly not on the scale of Primavera.

Have to agree. Certainly UK festival season is dead in the water.

Primavera September ??........I want to believe but I'm not seeing it. 

[puckno]

3 minutes ago, JedTheHumanoid said:

imposes far more complications in enforcing social distancing.

So the 50k city festivals are gonna practice social distancing? 

[xxialac]

All fair comments but I don't believe for a minute Primavera wouldn't be able to coordinate the band side of things.

The quality might be diluted but seems inconceivable they wouldn't be able to pull together 100 acts desperate for a payday in front of an audience just grateful to be there at all.

I mean they could put Michael Bolton on doing boy band ballads and he'd be received like a secret Daft Punk set...

[JedTheHumanoid]

Just now, puckno said:

So the 50k city festivals are gonna practice social distancing? 

it's very hard to practice social distancing on a festival - near the stages, food-courts, bars etc.

it's a whole new level to do it on the camping zones and showers

so I'm not saying it's going to easy for Primavera, I'm saying it will be much harder with camping

[Mondo-kun]

I'm sorry, but even if we assume it's technically possible (it's not), would anyone there be excited for festival with social distancing?
No dancing, no screaming, wearing masks all the time, staying two meters apart from each other? Really?

Edited January 21, 2021 by Mondo-kun

[JedTheHumanoid]

2 minutes ago, Mondo-kun said:

I'm sorry, but even if we assume it's technically possible (it's not), would anyone there be excited for festival with social distancing?
No dancing, no screaming, wearing masks all the time, staying two meters apart from each other? Really?

at this point, after a year without any show and come summer it will be 2 years without festivals, I'll take whatever you'll give me

and generally speaking - if we can keep the 2 meters apart at all shows regardless I'd be very happy 🙂

[puckno]

14 minutes ago, JedTheHumanoid said:

so I'm not saying it's going to easy for Primavera, I'm saying it will be much harder with camping

Yeah, a agree with respect to the festival itself - camping as an additional complication, but a lot of the risk is also for the local communities where people travel to and the degree of protection for the people in these communities. This part of the equation could be easier on a remote location.

Anyway... I cannot see the festivals happen this year without the population protected at herd immunity levels or with vaccine proven to protect against spread in combination with vaccine certificates. My only hope is the vaccination process to have higher than expected speed. 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by puckno

[Andrej]

Vaccination is slow everywhere, very slow. Apart from Israel and a few other places. With this tempo, not much will change before the summer....nice weather and a bit of herd immunity will slow everything down, but not enough that you can have 35,000 people in one place without any distances. Its not gonna happen before spring 2022.