U.S. Presidential Election

[FloopFiller]

32 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

🙂

Polymarket is a betting site so this is purely people placing bets rather than official polling or data. Trump does seem to have gained a little ground in some of the proper polls I’ve seen, but Kamala is still ahead. 

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

Talk of a huge and intense hurricane heading straight for Florida less than a month after Hurricane Helene really can't be good for anyone there.

[charlierc]

13 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Polymarket is a betting site so this is purely people placing bets rather than official polling or data. Trump does seem to have gained a little ground in some of the proper polls I’ve seen, but Kamala is still ahead. 

Didn't we have a compilation Tweet that had the round-up of what most pollsters were saying a few weeks ago when 538 really was being an outlier?

[kalifire]

Elon Musk’s mum encouraging people to commit full blown voter fraud. 

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[FloopFiller]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

 

Meanwhile Trump wouldn’t even take the interview because they told him he’d be live fact checked.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[FloopFiller]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

His constant onslaught of insane behaviour since losing in 2020 has really made a lot of people memory hole how much of an incompetent and cruel President he was. His Covid response seems to get the most attention, and rightfully so because he completely bungled it, but even before that he was just terrible.

 

And speaking of his Covid response, a new book has revealed that he sent Covid tests to Putin whilst Americans were suffering a shortage. Unbelievable, and even worse that it’ll barely make the headlines. 

[steviewevie]

27 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

His constant onslaught of insane behaviour since losing in 2020 has really made a lot of people memory hole how much of an incompetent and cruel President he was. His Covid response seems to get the most attention, and rightfully so because he completely bungled it, but even before that he was just terrible.

 

And speaking of his Covid response, a new book has revealed that he sent Covid tests to Putin whilst Americans were suffering a shortage. Unbelievable, and even worse that it’ll barely make the headlines. 

yes, but the economy (and immigration, and all the wars, and the storms etc etc)

[charlierc]

On 10/8/2024 at 5:25 PM, FloopFiller said:

And speaking of his Covid response, a new book has revealed that he sent Covid tests to Putin whilst Americans were suffering a shortage. Unbelievable, and even worse that it’ll barely make the headlines. 

The Kremlin corroborating it has helped give it some more attention tbf.

[Neil]

On 10/1/2024 at 5:59 PM, steviewevie said:

so...Iran-Israel war during a US election...how does that play out?

Trump could just say that wouldn't happen if I was president. Again and again.

Trump will say he'd bomb iran harder.

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

Three more weeks of poll-watching to go eh. And presumably three more weeks of Trump and his gang continuing to say ridiculous things like there apparently now being hurricanes to order.

[steviewevie]

Still think Trump will win because of sexism, racism, stupidity, and a tough few years with cost of living crisis.

[charlierc]

I'm still not confident enough to call it either way. Data largely hints Harris might squeak it, but not by enough for me to say she absolutely will, not least given different polls are reaching very different conclusions and the US pollsters in the last 2 elections undercounted Trump voters, or at least were ambushed by people too embarrassed to say in a poll they would.

 

Equally I actually think the Republicans are running a bad campaign - seemingly don't care about alienating women voters and are making so many mistakes in messaging. I think the terrain is there for a Republican to win, but if they don't win, the only conclusion is that they've spent the whole time getting in their own way.

[FloopFiller]

Still going with Kamala winning. There have been a lot of Republican backed spoiler polls being released, usually immediately after one comes out in favour of Kamala, that are muddying the water and boosting Trump’s favourability and making his overall polling look better than it actually is, whereas there really aren’t many Democrat backed polls doing the same thing.

 

Also, this internal poll was released a couple of days ago and although it has Trump up in all states, it’s by such a pathetic margin that it makes it seem like their actual non-fudged numbers are most likely terrible:

 

[steviewevie]

Well, I'm kind of pessimistic, that's how I roll. I'm real fun at parties.

The polls are tight. Why they hell are they tight? Trump is a monster, how could anyone vote for him, he shouldn't be even in the race etc. 

So, there's a whole load of people like me who hate him and will vote Harris. Then there's a whole load of people who love him, and then there's some people who haven't decided...and this is where you have to look at the state of things. How the economy has been the last few years with inflation and cost of living. The worries about immigration and crime. Global conflicts and America's part in them. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan. The hurricanes and floods.

Incumbents are getting kicked out everywhere. Populist right and far right are winning all over the place.

On top of this you see progressive left and pro Palestine people and  who are distressed that US is not able to rein in Israel despite all the leverage it has who will be unable to vote for Democrat. They may vote Stein, or another independent, or not. Some might even vote Trump. They could be key in places like Michigan.

 

Actually, what could happen is it ends up in court for days or weeks and there's massive unrest.

[steviewevie]