U.S. Presidential Election

[Guest]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

The only reason I can think of is that you should never underestimate the power of stupid and there’s a lot of stupid in America. 

Is that a reason though?

[Hugh Jass]

I’m resigned to Trump winning.

The slippery c**t looked like losing this time four years ago and look what happened.

[Mr.Tease]

Not staying up to watch it live as I'll just feel sick to my stomach throughout with anxiety! If Trump loses it will give me sustenance for weeks in amongst all the 2020 misery- particularly amusing will be knowing how much he hates 'losers' and yet will find himself being one on an international stage. However I'm not taking a Biden win for granted- him losing would be in keeping with he general theme of the year.

 

So as usual, hoping for the best, preparing for the worst

Edited November 3, 2020 by Mr.Tease

[e9t3]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m interested to know, for the people saying they think Trump will win, why do you think that?

Biden is terrible too. Lots of democrats wanted a progressive like Bernie.

[WestCountryGirl]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m interested to know, for the people saying they think Trump will win, why do you think that?

I have nothing other than the pessimistic feeling. I am scared Trump will win because of what happened in 2016. Polls can still be wrong. Trump could call it early. It could have to go to congress or the supreme court. There are lots of ways that this doesn't end neatly in a Biden win, and I am worried about them. 

[Gilgamesh69]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m interested to know, for the people saying they think Trump will win, why do you think that?

Because it's 2020.

[WestCountryGirl]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Not staying up to watch it live as I'll just feel sick to my stomach throughout with anxiety! If Trump loses it will give me sustenance for weeks in amongst all the 2020 misery- particularly amusing will be knowing how much he hates 'losers' and yet will find himself being one on an international stage. However I'm not taking a Biden win for granted- him losing would be in keeping with he general theme of the year.

 

So as usual, hoping for the best, preparing for the worst

Ha, I'm staying up precisely because I don't think I could ring myself to go to the BBC news page and find out what's happened upon waking up tomorrow morning. Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment, opting for the slow death that you know is coming rather than the quick blow to the head..

I think that that's the metaphor I went with shows just how good about everything I'm feeling today.

[FloorFiller]

If Trump loses, I hope every media outlet in America goes with the headline ‘You’re Fired!’ in unison. 

[Mr.Tease]

Just now, WestCountryGirl said:

Ha, I'm staying up precisely because I don't think I could ring myself to go to the BBC news page and find out what's happened upon waking up tomorrow morning. Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment, opting for the slow death that you know is coming rather than the quick blow to the head..

I think that that's the metaphor I went with shows just how good about everything I'm feeling today.

You're probably doing the wiser thing! I know I'm going to wake up in the middle of the night, cave in and have a heart attack while I wait for the news page to load on my phone (only to find there's no result yet😂)

[squirrelarmy]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Is that a reason though?

I can’t think of a sane reason why someone would want trump in charge 

[jparx]

Re: staying up for the coverage - isn’t the better play getting some sleep earlier and waking up around 3am or something? Won’t be much action before then surely?

[Mr.Tease]

Just now, FloorFiller said:

If Trump loses, I hope every media outlet in America goes with the headline ‘You’re Fired!’ in unison. 

I hope his name is officially changed by media and social media to Donald Chump (just in keeping with his petty name calling tendencies)

[sime]

Trump will declare victory this evening with the overnight results (unless Florida, which reports its results early and maybe a few others, go for Biden, in which case he won't be able to do that).

But if he does this, then hopefully, the rest of the results counted over the following few days/week will show a decisive Biden win which Trump could not contest. Hopefully...

I have tomorrow booked off work so that I can stay up all night watching what happens.

[Hugh Jass]

8 minutes ago, e9t3 said:

Biden is terrible too. Lots of democrats wanted a progressive like Bernie.

For now I’ll take Not Trump.

[squirrelarmy]

There’s no point staying up as the result won’t be confirmed for a while and most votes won’t come in till it’s time to be awake again in the morning. 

[jparx]

1 minute ago, sime said:

Trump will declare victory this evening with the overnight results (unless Florida, which reports its results early and maybe a few others, go for Biden, in which case he won't be able to do that).

But if he does this, then hopefully, the rest of the results counted over the following few days/week will show a decisive Biden win which Trump could not contest. Hopefully...

I have tomorrow booked off work so that I can stay up all night watching what happens.

Yeah I think you’re right.

Doesn’t seem the actions of someone confident of winning in the end though, does it? 

[Hutchmaster]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m interested to know, for the people saying they think Trump will win, why do you think that?

I'm just all out of hope to be honest. Very wary the "shy" Trump vote may not be reflecting the polls accurately in particular. 

I hope I'm spectacularly wrong of course.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Biden will win, I think. There’s a very thin route to re-election through Pennsylvania but I think he needs to win every single swing state. Biden only needs win. I think it’s roughly an equal chance of a Trump win as there is of a total landslide, but most likely is Biden winning by a narrow-to-comfortable margin 

[Matt42]

23 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m interested to know, for the people saying they think Trump will win, why do you think that?

Because there’s a political dynamic in America that you don’t see here. America is a country which has had pretty poor voter turnout for a long time, and the one thing I’ve noticed the most from the Trump movement is that he’s speaking to people who pretty much gave up on politics. I think there is still an issue where the media in America sticks their fingers in their ears about this movement and pretends that these people don’t have a voice, and that they aren’t worthy of the democrats time.
 

Another thing that I don’t think translates well to British audiences is the nationwide distrust of the democrat party. We don’t really see this reported in our media so I don’t think it’s a surprise to me. A lot of Americans don’t really believe the democrat party is “for” them, and many hold their nose when voting for them.

We can’t ignore that in the past few years there has been a rise in alternative media, alternative facts, and some pretty heavy division between left and right. In addition, I think there’s still a case to be made here that a lot of people who support trump (a) don’t want to admit it, and (b) would either lie to a poll or be undetectable to pollsters, as they may never have voted before.

One last point - Trump at the moment is the underdog, and that’s something I think can’t be discounted. I honestly think that it feeds into his “the media are against me” narrative that his supporters like. Trump like Brexit is a protest vote, and protest votes can easily disrupt the status quo.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Matt42

[Gilgamesh69]

Are any of you betting on this?

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, Gilgamesh69 said:

Are any of you betting on this?

£20 on Trump to get 180-209 electoral college votes. 5/1 on Paddy Power. 

[Matt42]

18 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Because there’s a political dynamic in America that you don’t see here. America is a country which has had pretty poor voter turnout for a long time, and the one thing I’ve noticed the most from the Trump movement is that he’s speaking to people who pretty much gave up on politics. I think there is still an issue where the media in America sticks their fingers in their ears about this movement and pretends that these people don’t have a voice, and that they aren’t worthy of the democrats time.
 

Another thing that I don’t think translates well to British audiences is the nationwide distrust of the democrat party. We don’t really see this reported in our media so I don’t think it’s a surprise to me. A lot of Americans don’t really believe the democrat party is “for” them, and many hold their nose when voting for them.

We can’t ignore that in the past few years there has been a rise in alternative media, alternative facts, and some pretty heavy division between left and right. In addition, I think there’s still a case to be made here that a lot of people who support trump (a) don’t want to admit it, and (b) would either lie to a poll or be undetectable to pollsters, as they may never have voted before.

One last point - Trump at the moment is the underdog, and that’s something I think can’t be discounted. I honestly think that it feeds into his “the media are against me” narrative that his supporters like. Trump like Brexit is a protest vote, and protest votes can easily disrupt the status quo.

I have some more.

There could be an explanation that Biden supporters don’t want to attend rallies, but there is something weird that wherever trump goes there are crowds of thousands, and when Biden holds rallies or events the attendance is pretty low.

The polls would suggest that Biden would be getting the crowds, not Trump. It feels like Trump’s movement is more vocal. Maybe it’s just noise? Who knows?

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, jparx said:

Re: staying up for the coverage - isn’t the better play getting some sleep earlier and waking up around 3am or something? Won’t be much action before then surely?

This was spoken about in the other thread, but I think getting some sleep in the evening then waking up around 2 is the best way forward for me.

There isn’t much in the way of data which shows a Trump win is likely. There is a 90% chance Biden wins according to polls/forecasts which shows that there isn’t a roughly equal chance of Trump winning. There’s a slim chance. There’s more of a chance of Biden winning in a landslide, however I think it’ll be slightly less than a landslide based on all the data that’s out there at the moment. 
 

Early voting data is looking good for the Democrats too. Polling for Ohio shows it neck and neck where Trump won by like 7 points last time. So if you extrapolate that out to the country shows Biden doing so much better than Clinton. 
 

I’d really recommend people have a look at fivethirtyeight.com or RCP who do a great analysis of the data available then see what you think!

[SwedgeAntilles]

Staying out of here until I get back up in the middle of the night. Too stressful otherwise.

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Prediction: Biden 351-187 Trump

 

 

swing states

Arizona Biden

Florida Biden

Georgia Biden

Iowa Trump

Maine 2nd Biden

Nebraska 2nd Biden

Nebraska 3rd Trump

North Carolina Biden (Just)

Ohio Trump

Pennsylvania Biden

Texas Trump