U.S. Presidential Election

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

On 6/1/2024 at 10:02 PM, steviewevie said:

 

There have been polls suggesting Trump's conviction has lead to the narrowing of his lead. No wonder his eco-system is trying it's best to frustrate the other 3 trials around this guy.

 

By comparison...

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

 

Does this mean the guy from Two Door Cinema Club who wrote a weird Christmas song about his laptop is happy?

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

5 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

This could be copium or denial but I feel like it's risky going all-in 5 months out to say it's in the bag like this seems to be.

 

I would agree Trump is the favourite as it stands, but I don't think it's guaranteed, especially given there's still scope for a lot of crazy sh*t to happen. I'm aware Biden's campaign has ground to make up, so I'm not going to run up and down convinced he's absolutely going to win because it's clearly not a guarantee, but it feels like a lot of people are creating this self-reinforcing narrative that Trump's absolutely going to win and I'm yet to be swayed that it's all nailed on.

 

Well that and 34% is still higher odds than most people gave Trump winning on the morning of the 2016 election.

[steviewevie]

On 6/12/2024 at 8:46 PM, charlierc said:

This could be copium or denial but I feel like it's risky going all-in 5 months out to say it's in the bag like this seems to be.

 

I would agree Trump is the favourite as it stands, but I don't think it's guaranteed, especially given there's still scope for a lot of crazy sh*t to happen. I'm aware Biden's campaign has ground to make up, so I'm not going to run up and down convinced he's absolutely going to win because it's clearly not a guarantee, but it feels like a lot of people are creating this self-reinforcing narrative that Trump's absolutely going to win and I'm yet to be swayed that it's all nailed on.

 

Well that and 34% is still higher odds than most people gave Trump winning on the morning of the 2016 election.

it's going to be decided by a few hundred thousand in a few states and could be real close.

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

it's going to be decided by a few hundred thousand in a few states and could be real close.

Same as the last two elections then. Maybe 3 - Obama's first win in 2008 was the closest to a landslide since Reagan but I can't recall 2012 being that much of a walk in the park.

[steviewevie]

35 minutes ago, charlierc said:

Same as the last two elections then. Maybe 3 - Obama's first win in 2008 was the closest to a landslide since Reagan but I can't recall 2012 being that much of a walk in the park.

but with a loon like Trump it really shouldn't be that close, but then Biden is walking round like he's half dead so...

[charlierc]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

but with a loon like Trump it really shouldn't be that close, but then Biden is walking round like he's half dead so...

There's a couple of factors - like Sunak, Macron, Scholz, etc, the incumbent is getting blamed for the financial pressure caused by inflation, plus Biden's age is not easy to hide from (even if Trump is only 3 years younger and seems less capable of coherent speeches), he's had some awkward moments with foreign policy and clearly the MAGA cult was more deep-rooted than could be solved by one electoral defeat.

 

Even then, I don't feel like I can go along with this idea Trump is guaranteed to win like some seem to. And I say this tbf as someone who thinks Nikki Haley would win the election if the Republicans had picked her, given less baggage.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, charlierc said:

There's a couple of factors - like Sunak, Macron, Scholz, etc, the incumbent is getting blamed for the financial pressure caused by inflation, plus Biden's age is not easy to hide from (even if Trump is only 3 years younger and seems less capable of coherent speeches), he's had some awkward moments with foreign policy and clearly the MAGA cult was more deep-rooted than could be solved by one electoral defeat.

 

Even then, I don't feel like I can go along with this idea Trump is guaranteed to win like some seem to. And I say this tbf as someone who thinks Nikki Haley would win the election if the Republicans had picked her, given less baggage.

 

Nothing is guaranteed, but I don't get the sense of complacency from Biden's lot...as if a campaign will expose what Trump is all about and then surely common sense will mean a Biden win. The campaign is about to start and Biden can hardly walk, he takes a long time to say anything, he looks f**ked. Everyone knows already what Trump is, and yet he still leads in those states he needs to win in. US has had inflation, but it is nothing like we had in europe...if it was based on the economy Biden should be way ahead.

Edited June 14 by steviewevie

[Neil]

i  doubt trump will win the popular vote.

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, Neil said:

i  doubt trump will win the popular vote.

Doesn't need to

[Neil]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Doesn't need to

true, just needs to storm the capitol better next time. 😛 

[charlierc]

13 hours ago, Neil said:

i  doubt trump will win the popular vote.

 

13 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Doesn't need to

It feels like this is his best chance of doing so imo given his stronger polling numbers than at this point in 2016 or 2020.

 

Would be funny if he won popular vote but Biden got just enough voters show up in 5/6 swing states to get him the electoral college total as karma for 2016.

[Neil]

12 minutes ago, charlierc said:

 

It feels like this is his best chance of doing so imo given his stronger polling numbers than at this point in 2016 or 2020.

 

Would be funny if he won popular vote but Biden got just enough voters show up in 5/6 swing states to get him the electoral college total as karma for 2016.

Trumps rage would be huge if that happens 

[charlierc]

6 minutes ago, Neil said:

Trumps rage would be huge if that happens 

He gets angry when someone says anything even mildly critical. That wouldn't be news.

[steviewevie]

This Is Bad.

[Kurosagi]

It's not a surprise though and the increase/decrease within MoE from the last poll?

 

I mean Trump won Iowa in 2020 with a higher percentage than that.

 

Or am I missing your point?

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

It's not a surprise though and the increase/decrease within MoE from the last poll?

 

I mean Trump won Iowa in 2020 with a higher percentage than that.

 

Or am I missing your point?

He won with an 8 pt lead, now it's 18 pts. Means Biden probably on course to lose nearby Wisconsin and Michigan, two key swing states.

Still a lot ng time to go, have to hope Trump gets found guilty of something really bad before November 

[Kurosagi]

Can't help but feel democrats are fools for not having a post Biden succession plan in place. I mean is he really the best they've got?

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

19 hours ago, Kurosagi said:

Can't help but feel democrats are fools for not having a post Biden succession plan in place. I mean is he really the best they've got?

I think the nature of the beast is that they were happy with much of what he's done domestically. But clearly the data is struggling to translate, kind of like John Major here in 1997 where the UK was in a better economic place but a lot of people were still narked about the recession in 1992/93.

 

That, and I can't quite recall if there were many people who felt now was the time to go for it or if they considered themselves as better place to try to challenge for the nomination in 2028.

[steviewevie]

16 minutes ago, charlierc said:

I think the nature of the beast is that they were happy with much of what he's done domestically. But clearly the data is struggling to translate, kind of like John Major here in 1997 where the UK was in a better economic place but a lot of people were still narked about the recession in 1992/93.

 

That, and I can't quite recall if there were many people who felt now was the time to go for it or if they considered themselves as better place to try to challenge for the nomination in 2028.

I think the original plan was Kamala Harris, but for whatever reason she has turned out to be a dud.

 

[Kurosagi]

I've not been keeping up with democrat party gossip. The internal polling must be fairly dire for Kamala Harris for her to not be making a fuss, she's obviously ambitious. I wonder if there's been a Blair-Brown style agreement whereby she'll stay VP, that Biden is the democrats best bet for beating Trump and that he'll stand down a couple of years into the second term to give her a good run at the next election 'safe' in the knowledge that by this point Trump will either be dead, in jail or spontaneously combusted.

[charlierc]

On 6/17/2024 at 9:55 PM, steviewevie said:

Means Biden probably on course to lose nearby Wisconsin and Michigan, two key swing states.

Some recent polls suggest the two candidates are close in Wisconsin and Michigan to the point of being within a margin for error.

 

But yeah, given how much Republicans blamed Trump for their 2022 midterm election damp squib and the fact he's now an actual convicted criminal being backed by people who seem to think him losing would be the pretext for a civil war, it's f**king weird how he's rehabbed himself. And some of the stuff his acolytes want, as brought up by John Oliver's show this week, are just batshit insane. A lot of them will likely have problems on launch, but it's not ideal for it to be a real prospect of them trying.