U.S. Presidential Election

[steviewevie]

I think most likely is Harris.

There are no perfect options for any of this, they should have seen this coming and have kind of f**ked it.

[MilkyJoe]

Inclined to agree with Harris. I feel anything else would be too messy.

 

She should offer the VP pick to Kennedy! that would shake things up!😂

[charlierc]

14 hours ago, MilkyJoe said:

Inclined to agree with Harris. I feel anything else would be too messy.

 

She should offer the VP pick to Kennedy! that would shake things up!😂

Well it would certainly confuse and bemuse a lot of people.

 

... but then so does American politics in general.

[charlierc]

15 hours ago, lazyred said:

There's an interesting interview with the political analyst Frank Luntz in the Times. He's Republican but anti Trump.

 

His focus groups suggest there are very few undecided voters left. Based on that he thinks are just 3 states that matter now - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

 

He also has a longish list of Democrats, mostly Governors, who could put up a fight against Trump:

Kamala Harris (vice-president)

Gavin Newsom (governor of California)

Gretchen Whitmer (governor of the must-win state of Michigan)

Josh Shapiro (governor of the must-win state of Pennsylvania)

Wes Moore (governor of Maryland)

Roy Cooper (governor of North Carolina)

Cory Booker (New Jersey senator and a former mayor)

Pete Buttigieg (transportation secretary and a former mayor)

Mitch Landrieu (former mayor of New Orleans).

 

Given some polls even put the usual Democrat stronghold New York in play as a possible either-way, it's possible different people are using different data sets. It's similar to how 538 had a piece this week saying Biden still has a decent shot at winning despite poll after poll looking pretty dire at present.

 

There is a sense though that a week on from that idiot trying to assassinate Trump that there may not have been that much of a bounce securing him the Presidency as first assumed, short of some people at the RNC taking their hero worship to new strange places. Whether it needed all that much of a bounce is another matter ofc, given the Democrats have arguably been the bigger story this week as they're all still shouting at one another.

[steviewevie]

National polls may say not a big loverqll ead by Trump,but I saw a poll with Trump winning in all the key swing states, and if that happens it's a landslide. Biden needs to get over himself and step aside 

[FloopFiller]

I think they just need to drag Biden across the finish line at this point. In a nicer country/world Harris would obviously be an ideal choice to step in, but ain’t no way America is voting in a black female president, especially one thrust in to the race with only four months to get people on her side, and I don’t see anybody else wanting to jump in now either.
 

Biden will probably lose, but he’s also probably their best chance at winning right now, and that’s totally on the Dems (and him) for not making him commit to being a one term president a long time ago like most people assumed he would when he won in 2020. They were foolish for thinking that a 78 year old man wouldn’t soon have health troubles, and that Trump wouldn’t continue to be the Rep nominee and avoid any consequences for his crimes that would stop him from running. 
 

Just gotta hope and pray that the same show of force that turned up to keep Trump out of office last time does the same this time. 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

I think they just need to drag Biden across the finish line at this point. In a nicer country/world Harris would obviously be an ideal choice to step in, but ain’t no way America is voting in a black female president, especially one thrust in to the race with only four months to get people on her side, and I don’t see anybody else wanting to jump in now either.
 

Biden will probably lose, but he’s also probably their best chance at winning right now, and that’s totally on the Dems (and him) for not making him commit to being a one term president a long time ago like most people assumed he would when he won in 2020. They were foolish for thinking that a 78 year old man wouldn’t soon have health troubles, and that Trump wouldn’t continue to be the Rep nominee and avoid any consequences for his crimes that would stop him from running. 
 

Just gotta hope and pray that the same show of force that turned up to keep Trump out of office last time does the same this time. 

Not sure how you get he is their best chance of winning 

[steviewevie]

Anyway, maybe Trump would be better for peace, might not be the sort of peace we want, but less fighting and death. Ukraine war ends and they lose part of their country, China can take Taiwan as long as they don't f**k the chip supply chains, and he may even get a ceasefire in the middle east and win himself a nobel peace prize.. although not sure that deal will include a Palestinian state.

[steviewevie]

and European countries including us will just have to spend more on defence, which is what they're starting to do anyway.

[FloopFiller]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Not sure how you get he is their best chance of winning 

Because Kamala definitely isn’t gonna win, and nobody else is gonna jump in, so it’s Biden. It sucks that it’s come to this, but just seems the most realistic outcome to me right now.

 

Maybe I’m wrong and there is somebody else waiting in the wings wanting to take a shot, but it just seems very foolish from a career standpoint to put yourself in to this mess and possibly f**k up your future chances by getting annihilated by Trump because your were dumb enough to think you could just walk in last minute and win people over. 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Because Kamala definitely isn’t gonna win, and nobody else is gonna jump in, so it’s Biden. It sucks that it’s come to this, but just seems the most realistic outcome to me right now.

 

Maybe I’m wrong and there is somebody else waiting in the wings wanting to take a shot, but it just seems very foolish from a career standpoint to put yourself in to this mess and possibly f**k up your future chances by getting annihilated by Trump because your were dumb enough to think you could just walk in last minute and win people over. 

Isn't Harris polling better than Biden? The one thing she has going for her as far as I can tell is that she can walk and talk.

[MilkyJoe]

43 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

I think they just need to drag Biden across the finish line at this point. In a nicer country/world Harris would obviously be an ideal choice to step in, but ain’t no way America is voting in a black female president, especially one thrust in to the race with only four months to get people on her side, and I don’t see anybody else wanting to jump in now either.
 

Biden will probably lose, but he’s also probably their best chance at winning right now, and that’s totally on the Dems (and him) for not making him commit to being a one term president a long time ago like most people assumed he would when he won in 2020. They were foolish for thinking that a 78 year old man wouldn’t soon have health troubles, and that Trump wouldn’t continue to be the Rep nominee and avoid any consequences for his crimes that would stop him from running. 
 

Just gotta hope and pray that the same show of force that turned up to keep Trump out of office last time does the same this time. 

Kind of agree with this, I feel anybody else stepping in now just hasn't got enough time to make a difference and they are looking at defeat anyway. Unless the Dems know something we don't it's time to stop the bickering and public sniping, get behind Biden and start attacking trump and vance instead of each other. 

 

If, against the odds he does go on to win he can step down then and give it to Kamala.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, MilkyJoe said:

Kind of agree with this, I feel anybody else stepping in now just hasn't got enough time to make a difference and they are looking at defeat anyway. Unless the Dems know something we don't it's time to stop the bickering and public sniping, get behind Biden and start attacking trump and vance instead of each other. 

 

If, against the odds he does go on to win he can step down then and give it to Kamala.

ok, but there's a defeat, and then there's a landslide where MAGA crazy Republicans take everything and US goes all Handmaid's Tale.

So it can be argued that Biden has been a pretty good president, and they can get Trump because he's a dodgy muthaf**ka etc...but you can't just unsee what Biden looks and sounds like on tv, and it isn't going to get any better unless they keep pumping him full of amphetamines/steroids/botox or use some funky AI or something. It's just bloody crazy if you ask me, maybe I'm wrong and they can unite behind Biden and turn this thing around...but I don't think they will and history won't look kindly on Biden or those around him who kept this thing going.

[MilkyJoe]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ok, but there's a defeat, and then there's a landslide where MAGA crazy Republicans take everything and US goes all Handmaid's Tale.

So it can be argued that Biden has been a pretty good president, and they can get Trump because he's a dodgy muthaf**ka etc...but you can't just unsee what Biden looks and sounds like on tv, and it isn't going to get any better unless they keep pumping him full of amphetamines/steroids/botox or use some funky AI or something. It's just bloody crazy if you ask me, maybe I'm wrong and they can unite behind Biden and turn this thing around...but I don't think they will and history won't look kindly on Biden or those around him who kept this thing going.

Yeah the whole thing is f**ked at the moment to be sure. There's definitely no easy answers but until they sort it one way or the other all trump has to do is look on while it happens. Biden needs to get out this week and for better or worse get a couple of speeches or interviews in with the intention of trying to get this all put to bed. It will go one way or the other. In reality (in public at least) there are 32 Dems saying he should step down. This isn't many out of 251 so at the moment he would still seem to have a majority support.

 

Privately it's probably another matter entirely and I'm sure any more serious gaffes from him would open the floodgates...

[FloopFiller]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Isn't Harris polling better than Biden? The one thing she has going for her as far as I can tell is that she can walk and talk.

Being black and a woman completely negates any walking and talking she can do, unfortunately.

 

Also gotta be noted that Trump’s RNC speech the other night went down horrendously, even with a large portion of non-MAGA republicans. Talked for like an hour and a half, kept going off topic, brought up Hannibal Lecter as if he was a real person again, lied over and over, and just didn’t seem how to end it so just.. kept talking, so whilst he may be louder, his brain isn’t any less mush than Biden’s. 
 

People have got to remember, at this point it doesn’t really matter who the Dem candidate is. You’re voting for Trump or you’re voting against him, just like 2020. Would be great to have the reassurance of a dependable candidate that people were rallying behind, but alas that ship seems to have sailed. If Biden gets annihilated then it’s just another instance of Dems being f**king idiots and not getting their sh*t together at a much earlier date.

[MilkyJoe]

2 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Also gotta be noted that Trump’s RNC speech the other night went down horrendously, even with a large portion of non-MAGA republicans. Talked for like an hour and a half, kept going off topic, brought up Hannibal Lecter as if he was a real person again, lied over and over, and just didn’t seem how to end it so just.. kept talking, so whilst he may be louder, his brain isn’t any less mush than Biden’s. 

Apparently last nights speech in Michigan wasn't much better.🤣 There's always a chance that he will say or do something to make people realise that he's a f**king idiot but it's still unlikely to make his supporters turn away. They are blind in that respect.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Being black and a woman completely negates any walking and talking she can do, unfortunately.

 

Also gotta be noted that Trump’s RNC speech the other night went down horrendously, even with a large portion of non-MAGA republicans. Talked for like an hour and a half, kept going off topic, brought up Hannibal Lecter as if he was a real person again, lied over and over, and just didn’t seem how to end it so just.. kept talking, so whilst he may be louder, his brain isn’t any less mush than Biden’s. 
 

People have got to remember, at this point it doesn’t really matter who the Dem candidate is. You’re voting for Trump or you’re voting against him, just like 2020. Would be great to have the reassurance of a dependable candidate that people were rallying behind, but alas that ship seems to have sailed. If Biden gets annihilated then it’s just another instance of Dems being f**king idiots and not getting their sh*t together at a much earlier date.

I get all of that...but at moment those who are for Trump are definitely going to vote, those against are not sure.

Yes maybe Harris would not do well with some voters because of who she is, but will she be able to galvanise anti Trump people to get out and vote because at least she is compos mentis.

[lazyred]

2 hours ago, charlierc said:

Given some polls even put the usual Democrat stronghold New York in play as a possible either-way, it's possible different people are using different data sets. It's similar to how 538 had a piece this week saying Biden still has a decent shot at winning despite poll after poll looking pretty dire at present.

 

There is a sense though that a week on from that idiot trying to assassinate Trump that there may not have been that much of a bounce securing him the Presidency as first assumed, short of some people at the RNC taking their hero worship to new strange places. Whether it needed all that much of a bounce is another matter ofc, given the Democrats have arguably been the bigger story this week as they're all still shouting at one another.

It ties in with the idea that everyone has made up their minds so there is very little scope for any event to move the polls. I've no idea how reliable Lunz  is. I've heard of him from his UK commentary but the interview referred to a recent serious illness.

I was most surprised by the wide field of potential candidates to replace Biden. I don't know anything about them and recent posts here say one is Jewish and another gay which may rule them out.

[steviewevie]

what is it with these silicon valley libertarian c**ts?

Money and power I guess.

 

[FloopFiller]

49 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

what is it with these silicon valley libertarian c**ts?

Money and power I guess.

 

I mean, I’m no Trump fan, but him immediately getting up, pumping his fist and shouting ‘Fight!’ right after getting ‘shot’ (hit by a piece of glass) was pretty damn badass. The tv personality in him immediately went in to ‘the cameras are on, let’s do this sh*t’ mode. There’s a reason why so many people immediately deflated to ‘oh sh*t, he’s gonna win’ right after, or assumed it was all staged. Looked right out of a movie. 

Edited July 21 by FloopFiller

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

I mean, I’m no Trump fan, but him immediately getting up, pumping his fist and shouting ‘Fight!’ right after getting ‘shot’ (hit by a piece of glass) was pretty damn badass. The tv personality in him immediately went in to ‘the cameras are on, let’s do this sh*t’ mode. There’s a reason why so many people immediately deflated to ‘oh sh*t, he’s gonna win’ right after, or assumed it was all staged. Looked right out of a movie. 

yes, but no offence or anything because I agree, but you saying it and Zuckerberg saying it are very different things.

[FloopFiller]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yes, but no offence or anything because I agree, but you saying it and Zuckerberg saying it are very different things.

 

Yeah I get that what he says is pretty contradictory there, but also it’s just him being honest in an interview that happened to take place immediately after a former president was nearly assassinated.

 

Also don’t think many people give a sh*t what Zuck has to say on the matter. It’s not like he’s Taylor Swift coming out and endorsing Trump causing tens of thousands of her fans swarming to the polls (although speaking of which, I wonder if she’ll repeat her endorsement of Biden this year). 

[steviewevie]

It is done. Feel bad now. Bring back Biden.

[FloopFiller]

Oh sh*t, Biden is out!

[charlierc]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

It is done. Feel bad now. Bring back Biden.

It says a lot about how little faith I have in Musk's X/Twitter that when I first saw this on there, I couldn't tell if it was a parody account or not.