U.S. Presidential Election

[charlierc]

16 minutes ago, clarkete said:

 

Aye, I tend to mostly just glance at nate silver or five thirty eight as their models take a broad sample (although each slightly different as I believe he tweaked his after he left the latter) 

I think aggregation is a good start. But equally all these polls are within only a few points of one another so the dial might not be moved that far either way just yet.

 

Best buckle up tbf. 80 days to go to the election and gonna be a long wild ride to that point.

[clarkete]

59 minutes ago, charlierc said:

I think aggregation is a good start. But equally all these polls are within only a few points of one another so the dial might not be moved that far either way just yet.

 

Best buckle up tbf. 80 days to go to the election and gonna be a long wild ride to that point.

 

I know those on his side are so desperate for trump to campaign on issues, to the extent he was scripted the other day, but that seems so implausible that really the wildness could be what will he be chatting about when standing in front of folks. 

 

There are even lots of folks in their party frustrated that instead of gearing up volunteers to campaign they're building this giant pool of people to go and monitor - ie great for whinging after you've lost, but no good to win votes. 

[FloopFiller]

Yeah Trump and the Republicans have already been sowing the seeds of doubt in to the integrity of the election just like in 2020 and they’ll almost certainly be pulling all the same tricks like last time too if they lose. It’s literally so crystal clear that that’s their plan and my god is it infuriating to see it go relatively unchecked, although I’m sure Kamala/Biden have got a plan for if Trump tries to January 6 it again. He failed last time and he’ll fail again, although I worry for what will happen in the interim as his base aren’t gonna go quietly.

[FloopFiller]

Coincidentally just saw this. Kamala definitely expecting f**kery and is preparing for the worst:

 

[clarkete]

 

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

 

 

[clarkete]

The 538 one looks similar to me from a cursory glance.

Underneath they have a table of polls and their recent change which may or not be interesting depending on your POV

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo

[LJS]

It seems to me that although the recent polls vary, they pretty much all show increasing support for Harris & unchanged\reduced support for Trump. The question is, whether that trend will continue. Trump seems to be doing his best to appear as unelectable as possible. I see his latest claim is that he is better looking than Harris.

 

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

[charlierc]

1 hour ago, LJS said:

It seems to me that although the recent polls vary, they pretty much all show increasing support for Harris & unchanged\reduced support for Trump. The question is, whether that trend will continue. Trump seems to be doing his best to appear as unelectable as possible. I see his latest claim is that he is better looking than Harris.

 

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Well there's still 2 1/2 months to polling day and with the margins this small, having consistently been small between them even when it was Biden v Trump, I would expect the trend to continue. Guess we'll see if any policies come out of the DNC that swing the dial either way.

[charlierc]

1 hour ago, LJS said:

I see his latest claim is that he is better looking than Harris.

 

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Yeah... I guess that's one way to draw attention to your antics.

 

Apparently at one point he also felt the need to repeatedly go "I don't ramble" while in the middle of rambling.

[FloopFiller]

Trump’s rallies just don’t have the juice they used to. He’s just playing the greatest hits but without any of the vigour and enthusiasm he did in ‘16

and ‘20. If I were American I think I’d have to go to one just to see how incredibly bizarre the whole thing was.

 

The DNC and then debates will give Kamala a nice little lead I feel. Trump obviously shitting it about having to debate her and I really do hope she just lays in to him big time and doesn’t let him get away with just lying and avoiding actual answers. 

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, FloopFiller said:

Trump’s rallies just don’t have the juice they used to. He’s just playing the greatest hits but without any of the vigour and enthusiasm he did in ‘16

and ‘20. If I were American I think I’d have to go to one just to see how incredibly bizarre the whole thing was.

 

 

probably a bit of PTSD from that shooting

[LJS]

2 hours ago, FloopFiller said:

Trump’s rallies just don’t have the juice they used to. He’s just playing the greatest hits but without any of the vigour and enthusiasm he did in ‘16

and ‘20. If I were American I think I’d have to go to one just to see how incredibly bizarre the whole thing was.

 

The DNC and then debates will give Kamala a nice little lead I feel. Trump obviously shitting it about having to debate her and I really do hope she just lays in to him big time and doesn’t let him get away with just lying and avoiding actual answers. 

Harris does not have a reputation as a great debater, while Trump, as I am sure he would say himself is a great masterdebater. Probably the greatest ever masterdebater.

[Spuddhism]

4 hours ago, LJS said:

I see his latest claim is that he is better looking than Harris

That footage is about as deranged as I've seen Trump. I'm utterly bemused how it can still be close between him and Harris. 

[Spuddhism]

5 hours ago, FloopFiller said:

He’s just playing the greatest hits

 

Speaking of greatest hits, it's comically illustrated in the Daily Show video I shared Thursday (check out the 2 minutes starting around the 11:30 mark). Gold 🙂

 

https://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/235192-us-presidential-election/?do=findComment&comment=6813825

 

[steviewevie]

 

[FloopFiller]

Was wondering how long it would be before Trump/Republicans started using AI in unsavoury ways but I always assumed it’d be fake recordings of Biden saying some horrible sh*t, not just Trump ‘truthing’ out obviously fake pictures of ‘Swifties for Trump’ (which I’m not convinced he realised is fake) or Kamala at a Communist convention. Maybe them being obviously fake gives them the element of claiming that only somebody stupid would believe they’re real so there’s no harm posting them. Still, pretty dodgy stuff from an official account of a presidential candidate. The Swift stuff seems ripe for a lawsuit from her.

 

Also sad to see Trump’s Twitter post so much sh*t now that it’s clearly run by somebody else. Say what you want

about the guy, but he was a great Twitter poster, if only for how hilariously deranged some of the stuff he said was.

Edited August 19 by FloopFiller

[Spuddhism]

21 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

The Swift stuff seems ripe for a lawsuit from her.

 

 

I don't think she has publicly endorsed Harris as yet? Maybe this will lead her to do so and prove another significant Trump own goal. 

[clarkete]

1 hour ago, FloopFiller said:

Also sad to see Trump’s Twitter post so much sh*t now that it’s clearly run by somebody else. Say what you want

about the guy, but he was a great Twitter poster, if only for how hilariously deranged some of the stuff he said was.

 

Amusingly his account reposting on twitter is one of the causes of his his massive stake in DJT taking another drive. 

 

So much winning! 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2024/08/17/trump-media-stock-djtsignificant-risks-are-at-hand/

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/

[steviewevie]

Edited August 19 by steviewevie

[FloopFiller]

30 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Trump has been making a whole lot of big promises with zero talk on how he plans to actually enact them. Kamala keeps getting criticised because people don’t think her plans will work etc, whereas Trump says sh*t like ‘I’LL CUT ALL TAXES BY HALF’ and not a peep is said about how improbable it is that he could actually do that. The media really does want this guy to win so that he can keep their headlines rolling. 

[steviewevie]

whether it's the actually the correct thing to do or not....would it be a good idea in terms of votes for Harris to go further than Biden with her Israel policy and say she will impose an arms embargo on Israel until it agrees to a ceasefire?

[clarkete]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

"Overall violent crime and homicides are down during Joe Biden’s presidency, according to official government measures through 2022 and a private-sector analysis of sampled data through 2023." 

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/apr/03/nancy-mace/has-crime-skyrocketed-under-joe-biden-not-exactly/

[charlierc]

8 hours ago, FloopFiller said:

Also sad to see Trump’s Twitter post so much sh*t now that it’s clearly run by somebody else. Say what you want

about the guy, but he was a great Twitter poster, if only for how hilariously deranged some of the stuff he said was.

Like a lot of things about Trump, him becoming President kinda ruined the fun of it. If there ever was any.

 

It's kinda weird looking at satirical shows from 2015 and the early weeks of the 2016 campaign tbf where they just saw him as a novelty campaign who'd fade away when the real politicians stepped up. How different a place we'd be if that had indeed happened, even if Jeb Bush wouldn't exactly have been an inspiring candidate for the Republicans in 2016 as was initially expected.

[charlierc]

1 minute ago, clarkete said:

 

"Overall violent crime and homicides are down during Joe Biden’s presidency, according to official government measures through 2022 and a private-sector analysis of sampled data through 2023." 

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/apr/03/nancy-mace/has-crime-skyrocketed-under-joe-biden-not-exactly/

Yeah but since when did Trump care about facts? I think it's well known by this point that he's clearly living in his own surrealist world where Kamala is somehow simultaneously a communist and a fascist and where he left America alone for 5 minutes and it burned down.

[clarkete]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

More recent and detailed

 

"Violent crime has gone down. Figures from large cities show a 9.1% drop in murders from 2020 to 2023, and data from more than 200 cities show a continuing decline so far this year." 

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/07/bidens-numbers-july-2024-update/