U.S. Presidential Election

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[FloopFiller]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

So funny just how obviously unserious he is about all the Christian/God stuff. Like he clearly doesn’t give a f**k about any of it and just uses it purely as a means to get the religious vote, but a bunch of idiots have convinced themselves that he’s Jesus incarnate. 

[steviewevie]

US manufacturing doing badly. Helps Trump 

[charlierc]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

US manufacturing doing badly. Helps Trump 

Whether the Trump campaign is focused enough to press home any perceived polling advantage on the economy is another question, given they seem to start focused but tail off into all kinds of weird sh*t very quickly.

 

Having an argument with the US Army over talk Trump staffers had a fight during a potentially illegal political event at Arlington Cemetery has been a dominant story in the last week, and one that hasn't exactly helped.

 

This is what's making it look strange imo. I think a lot of signs are against an incumbent (or sort-of incumbent in the case of Harris), much like we're seeing in France or Germany where the parties of the leader took a kicking in recent elections, but I still am of the opinion a Republican President would've still been likelier than the effective 50/50 polls are turning up if they hadn't chosen the candidate they have.

Edited September 3 by charlierc

[LJS]

The words below were taken verbatim  from a campaign speech former President Donald Trump delivered in Potterville, Michigan, Thursday when he was attempting, at least initially, to criticize Kamala Harris’ record in San Francisco, presumably referring to her tenure as district attorney there:

"She destroyed the city of San Francisco, it’s — and I own a big building there — it’s no — I shouldn’t talk about this but that’s OK I don’t give a damn because this is what I’m doing. I should say it’s the finest city in the world — sell and get the hell out of there, right? But I can’t do that. I don’t care, you know? I lost billions of dollars, billions of dollars. You know, somebody said, ‘What do you think you lost?’ I said, ‘Probably two, three billion. That’s OK, I don’t care.’ They say, ‘You think you’d do it again?’ And that’s the least of it. Nobody. They always say, I don’t know if you know. Lincoln was horribly treated. Uh, Jefferson was pretty horribly. Andrew Jackson they say was the worst of all, that he was treated worse than any other president. I said, ‘Do that study again, because I think there’s nobody close to Trump.’ I even got shot! And who the hell knows where that came from, right?"

 

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-age-harris-ramble-rcna168979

He is completely mad. ... & Still they vote for him.

[clarkete]

The things about election interference and how he'll be a dictator are just...mad

[charlierc]

5 minutes ago, clarkete said:

The things about election interference and how he'll be a dictator are just...mad

I'm not sure how much of a surprise it is at this point tbf. He wanted more control than he had in his first term and he essentially started that January 6th riot with the purpose of keeping himself in power in spite of an election that had a different result.

[clarkete]

2 minutes ago, charlierc said:

I'm not sure how much of a surprise it is at this point tbf. He wanted more control than he had in his first term and he essentially started that January 6th riot with the purpose of keeping himself in power in spite of an election that had a different result.

Indeed, but that one particularly seems pretty helpful to those collecting evidence for his trial

[steviewevie]

 

[Kurosagi]

Don't understand, is that saying Harris is odds on to win the popular vote but doesn't stand a chance of winning the election because she's made no progress in the swing states?

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

Don't understand, is that saying Harris is odds on to win the popular vote but doesn't stand a chance of winning the election because she's made no progress in the swing states?

According to Nate Silver's modelling thingy, yes...and looks like it's getting worse.

[Kurosagi]

Oh ffs.

 

I guess there's the debates still to come...

[Kurosagi]

Wasn't the appointment of Walz as VP supposed to help make a difference in the swing states?

 

Is there something unlikeable about him to republican swing voters (other than him being a democrat) that's being glossed over by the media?

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

Oh ffs.

 

I guess there's the debates still to come...

he could be wrong. It's a projection.

Other forecasters are more optimistic...like five thirty eight.

I think it will be close, Harris has to do more, more interviews and debates...and she needs to win arguments on the economy and immigration...they can't just rely on isn't Trump a misogynist weirdo to get them through.

[Kurosagi]

So a lot riding on the upcoming debate...no pressure.

[steviewevie]

also...turnout is key. Harris needs black/female/young voters to get out and vote...and maybe Trump forecast to win will do that....but it's all about those few states.

[Kurosagi]

Not sure that 'Trump forecast to win' makes any motivational difference anymore. People know who he is, what he's done, what he's likely to do. He's an entirely known quantity. It's got to be a positive vision thing from Harris, capture a new zeitgeist blah blah.

 

With USA politics being so overwhelmingly partisan these days I can imagine there's a lot of disinterested plague on both your houses going on.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

Not sure that 'Trump forecast to win' makes any motivational difference anymore. People know who he is, what he's done, what he's likely to do. He's an entirely known quantity. It's got to be a positive vision thing from Harris, capture a new zeitgeist blah blah.

 

With USA politics being so overwhelmingly partisan these days I can imagine there's a lot of disinterested plague on both your houses going on.

If Harris looks like a shoe in then anti Trump people less likely to bother voting? (see Starmer)

[clarkete]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

 

That's clearly quoting old data and as I'm sure you've seen many of his graphs confused a lot of folks on twitter during the last week, to the degree he put an explainer in the link below, as folks were using the increase in Trump's chance as representing his actual chance
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no-normal-in-this-election

Latest data here
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

 

More recent data about the electoral college here
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-electoral-college-bias-has-returned
 

The very interesting thing will be what happens in a couple of days with the debate and how they each come across.

 

 

[clarkete]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

If Harris looks like a shoe in then anti Trump people less likely to bother voting? (see Starmer)

The GOP are worried they've put off their own supporters and are backtracking on postal votes
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/republicans-encourage-mail-in-voting-even-as-trump-disparages-it/

[steviewevie]

This is what they have on that polymarket website Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

 

[steviewevie]

If Harris loses in PA and then the presidency it will be forever about she picked the wrong VP candidate.

[steviewevie]

Useful 

 

[charlierc]

59 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

This is what they have on that polymarket website Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

 

I guess this is why I'm puzzled by the one above saying Trump is crushingly likely to win. Anything above 55% either way seemed out of keeping with a still pretty even debate on the Presidency, not least given a lot of battleground states are still on paper-thin margins and a lot could well pivot on how Tuesday's debate proceeds. 

 

Kind of an achievement given Trump's campaign seems increasingly ropey, with Vance saying "Accept school shootings will happen" after one in Georgia this week being a particular low point.