U.S. Presidential Election

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[FloopFiller]

Christ, a second Trump term with control of the House and the Senate, PLUS two Supreme Court Justices ripe for retirement who’s replacements would be chosen by Trump meaning four of the eight for the next 30 or so years would be his ultra conservative picks. Terrifying stuff. 

[sime]

Encouraging watch

 

 

[Crazyfool01]

bloody hell this is worse than the weather thread rollercoaster for messing with emotions .... ( obviously the reality far worse than a wet one for clarity ) 

[steviewevie]

Trump goes full on racist at his Madison square gardens gig... they're not even bothering trying to win over moderate undecideds, must be pretty confident it's in the bag.

[ian the worm]

Do I need to plan an all nighter next Tuesday? Or will the UK time difference and counting timescale mean that everything is covered through Wednesday?  When will we likely know the main result?

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, ian the worm said:

Do I need to plan an all nighter next Tuesday? Or will the UK time difference and counting timescale mean that everything is covered through Wednesday?  When will we likely know the main result?

I don't think will know which way it is going to at least wednesday evening, and may not know final result until the weekend or even longer if the polls are right and it's going to be that close.

I'm not staying up all night for it, especially as I think it's going to be grim.

[maelzoid]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

I don't think will know which way it is going to at least wednesday evening, and may not know final result until the weekend or even longer if the polls are right and it's going to be that close.

I'm not staying up all night for it, especially as I think it's going to be grim.

Agreed. After the problems in 2000 and the 'issues' in 2020, I think states will take a bit more time before certifying.

 

I'm beginning to think the polls are a little screwy tbh. Most observers have said Trump would almost certainly lose the pop vote, even if he wins the election, yet the polls often say otherwise. And the polls never seem to react to actual news about the campaigns, such as the shooting, VP choices, debates etc. Taking 538 for example, I bet they get far more web hits when the results are v close so can understand them putting their finger on the scale to maintain that.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

Agreed. After the problems in 2000 and the 'issues' in 2020, I think states will take a bit more time before certifying.

 

I'm beginning to think the polls are a little screwy tbh. Most observers have said Trump would almost certainly lose the pop vote, even if he wins the election, yet the polls often say otherwise. And the polls never seem to react to actual news about the campaigns, such as the shooting, VP choices, debates etc. Taking 538 for example, I bet they get far more web hits when the results are v close so can understand them putting their finger on the scale to maintain that.

There is a thinking that polls are over doing the adjustment for the shy Trump voter following 2016/2020...and that Republican tactic is to have a lot of polls and betting sites showing it to be very close or a Trump win so they can say obviously dodge when Trump loses. Not convinced myself, but we'll see. A counter to this method is it could generate a larger turnout for Harris for fear of Trump winning.

I still think he'll win, he is the news, Harris doesn't get a look in.

[steviewevie]

The one thing that also gives hope is how polls called 2022 elections wrong, there was no red wave as some had forecast.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

I dare you to watch tonight's panorama 

[steviewevie]

Trump is going to end inflation.

He really is the chosen one.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

This may be behind a paywall...but basically he has looked at where they're going on campaign trail and Harris is being defensive and going to more safe Democrat counties than marginal ones, and Trump is going to more marginal and Democrat ones...so thinking is that they think/know polls are underestimating Trump support.

Are the polls underestimating Trump? - New Statesman

 

Be afraid.

[FloopFiller]

I’m of the total opposite opinion - that the polls are doing a course correction and overestimating him this time around after severely underestimating him the previous two election cycles. Hilary was predicted to win in a landslide and Biden was predicted to have a bigger victory, so they’re accounting for that by giving him a bump this time around and making it a level race so that no matter the outcome, they won’t come out being totally wrong.

 

As for him doing more rallies in places he’s unlikely to win, that’s just Trump being Trump, and if anything is just a farewell tour before he has to stop doing the thing that he loves most of all in all of this - talking to crowds of adoring fans. 

[steviewevie]

One last hope is the Puerto Rica thing will tilt Pennsylvania to Harris.

[maelzoid]

This is huge. How is Trump's lead in very red Kansas massively less than it was in the two previous elections? If he's losing votes there, where is he getting them from to be polling so high nationally?

I honestly think the pollsters have their finger on the scales elsewhere and didn't think anything of significance would come from Kansas. It just don't add up.

[maelzoid]

1 hour ago, FloopFiller said:

As for him doing more rallies in places he’s unlikely to win, that’s just Trump being Trump, and if anything is just a farewell tour before he has to stop doing the thing that he loves most of all in all of this - talking to crowds of adoring fans. 

 Also, there's a sense that he is now riling up the base to cause trouble when the result goes against him. MSG certainly looked like that.

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

This is huge. How is Trump's lead in very red Kansas massively less than it was in the two previous elections? If he's losing votes there, where is he getting them from to be polling so high nationally?

I honestly think the pollsters have their finger on the scales elsewhere and didn't think anything of significance would come from Kansas. It just don't add up.

what were the polls saying for Kansas before 2016 and 2020?

I think the women vote will hit Trump hard, but will it be enough?

[FloopFiller]

28 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

 Also, there's a sense that he is now riling up the base to cause trouble when the result goes against him. MSG certainly looked like that.

Been his playbook all along. ‘We’re gonna win, but if we don’t win, it could only be because the other side has cheated and we need to fight like hell to stop them’. IMO he knows he’s losing so has just gone in to full blown ‘let’s steal this’ mode. 
 

He’s not the sitting president this time so he actually has less power to try and overturn it again, but he’s already talked just a couple of days ago about some kind of plan he and Mike Johnson have in place so he’s not even being subtle about his intentions to not accept the results again. Fully expecting another January 6-alike shitshow which will once again fail but have his base thinking Kamala is an illegitimate President. Just hope that some Republicans have the balls to denounce what goes on this time, although not holding my breath on that. 

Edited October 29 by FloopFiller

[steviewevie]

19 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Been his playbook all along. ‘We’re gonna win, but if we don’t win, it could only be because the other side has cheated and we need to fight like hell to stop them’. IMO he knows he’s losing so has just gone in to full blown ‘let’s steal this’ mode. 
 

He’s not the sitting president this time so he actually has less power to try and overturn it again, but he’s already talked just a couple of days ago about some kind of plan he and Mike Johnson have in place so he’s not even being subtle about his intentions to not accept the results again. Fully expecting another January 6-alike shitshow which will once again fail but have his base thinking Kamala is an illegitimate President. Just hope that some Republicans have the balls to denounce what goes on this time, although not holding my breath on that. 

Doesn't he have a court case about Jan 6h coup thingy coming up...if something like that happens again and he's incited it, he's going to prison...so that might stop him going full on with all that.

I have read a lot about Democrat team very downbeat and worried about their chances, and Trump's lot being very optimistic...so either both sides are playing psychological games, or their internal polling are telling them something.