U.S. Presidential Election

[Matt42]

54 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

Upvoted because gracious admissions of wrong-ness are what we need to see at this time.

I was thinking yesterday that the pollsters/statisticians must have to be taking a long, hard look at themselves. Again. I know some were saying they had adjusted for those not engaging, but they were still so way off. Again!

There was a guy on bbc news explaining what was wrong with the industry last night and it makes total sense. The structure of the polls is they ask definite democrat voters and definite republicans voters, and people who would steer more towards the democrats.

They seem to totally miss first time voters, people who are registered as democrat but vote Republican (and have done for years), and people who are typically disengaged with politics but on the day might turn up and be more likely to vote someone like trump.

They also seem to miss all old people as the polls are conducted via the use of technology.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

There was a guy on bbc news explaining what was wrong with the industry last night and it makes total sense. The structure of the polls is they ask definite democrat voters and definite republicans voters, and people who would steer more towards the democrats.

They seem to totally miss first time voters, people who are registered as democrat but vote Republican (and have done for years), and people who are typically disengaged with politics but on the day might turn up and be more likely to vote someone like trump.

They also seem to miss all old people as the polls are conducted via the use of technology.

they also miss all the people who voted trump but are too embarressed to say that's what they'll do.

I was always fairly certain there was a significant number of 'shy trumpers'. It's a phenomenon that tends to happen where it's pretty damned obvious that one candidate/party is full of fruitcakes - because these voters know they're voting for fruitcakes,

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I was always fairly certain there was a significant number of 'shy trumpers'. It's a phenomenon that tends to happen where it's pretty damned obvious that one candidate/party is full of fruitcakes - because these voters know they're voting for fruitcakes,

they were confident they had compensated for that as that was also the problem in 2016...but I guess they made some errors.

[FloorFiller]

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

they also miss all the people who voted trump but are too embarressed to say that's what they'll do.

I was always fairly certain there was a significant number of 'shy trumpers'. It's a phenomenon that tends to happen where it's pretty damned obvious that one candidate/party is full of fruitcakes - because these voters know they're voting for fruitcakes,

Aye, we only see his hoards of idiots and assume that’s his base, but there will be a ton of people who vote for him for reasons personal to them but are ashamed to admit it.

Even if Biden wins this, Trump’s smear across America is gonna be hard to scrub off. He’s put racism and downright hate back on the menu in a big way.

[eFestivals]

Just now, steviewevie said:

they were confident they had compensated for that as that was also the problem in 2016...but I guess they made some errors.

it's a different bunch of fruitcake voters, as shown by the higher turnout.

My guess is that these are normally non-voters, but chose to vote this time because of being consumed by one of the fears Trump has been stoking.

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

Has there been any breakdown yet of how many first time voters? Suppose they can't really until all counted, but would be interesting to see.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Has there been any breakdown yet of how many first time voters? Suppose they can't really until all counted, but would be interesting to see.

haven't seen anything, but i wouldn't be too surprised to see them split fairly evenly for Biden and Trump.

Cos while I reckon the possible new voters will strongly favour Biden, I also reckon  that the possible new voting Trump supporters will have had a higher turnout than the possible new voting Biden supporters.

[zahidf]

iTs last 5% or so which is frustrating. Biden is soooo close....

[Matt42]

10 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Has there been any breakdown yet of how many first time voters? Suppose they can't really until all counted, but would be interesting to see.

I think the turnout this year was especially strong so there has to be.

My brother in law in Florida voted for the first time this year. Voted for Biden.

[Hugh Jass]

Is Kanye president yet?

[squirrelarmy]

Loving the social media meltdowns that are going on everywhere. 
 

[jparx]

CNN making compelling points that Biden could have have enough votes out there to win both PA and GA. scenes if he sweeps 4 of the remaining 6 to be called.

[philipsteak]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I think the turnout this year was especially strong so there has to be.

My brother in law in Florida voted for the first time this year. Voted for Biden.

Was it the first time he was able to vote?

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, jparx said:

CNN making compelling points that Biden could have have enough votes out there to win both PA and GA. scenes if he sweeps 4 of the remaining 6 to be called.

Nevada should be fine as lots of votes are still to be counted in Vegas. A lot of Atlanta votes are still to come in.  
 

Arizona is the only borderline one. Trump has been closing the gap steadily and it will be close. 

 

[jump]

6 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Is Kanye president yet?

He's got 60k so far and there's still mail in ballots to count. USA! USA! USA!

[mcshed]

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Even though it's looking good for Biden, I have to admit that every* point @Matt42 made was right. The shy Trump voters just ignored the polls entirely, despite all attempts to identify them, they just disengaged from the whole process. All of it about your gut, was pretty much correct, even if Trump doesn't actually win. And we (very much including myself) didn't believe you. Credit where it's due.

*Apart from California, of course. That was bonkers. It was like suggesting Emile Sandé would headline the Pyramid. We all have our moments!

I have been one of the staunchest defenders of the polls and whilst I agree that they are off this time round and they are consistently being off in the same direction which looks like a systematic problem that needs work. I'm not prepared to say the polls are useless go with Matt's gut.

Matt's gut called it for Trump the polls called it for Biden. It looks like Biden will win, currently he has between a 2 and 3% popular lead before all the postal votes that weren't delivered like the courts demanded yesterday, so if you give Biden a 3% lead that is only 5% off 538's final average lead of 8% which although off isn't that bad.  Note 538's final headline was a fine line between landslide and nailbiter, we got a nailbiter it's hard to say they got it completely wrong. 

Predictions will only give you probabilities our brains deal in certainties so unless the polls are spot on we say they're wrong. They are actually further off this time than in 2016 and so they need to look at that and try and fix it but if there is another election next year (Holyrood) I'll listen to the polls before Matt's gut.

I'm not really trying to single out Matt I'm using Matt's gut to mean general people relying on vibes. 

[FloorFiller]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Loving the social media meltdowns that are going on everywhere. 
 

He/they are such morons. Literally says his plan out loud for months, then when he actually tries it is surprised that nobody gives a shit and continues on business as usual.

Also love his tweets saying he ‘hereby claims’ certain states, as if that’s how this all works. Goddamnit I can’t wait to see him dragged out of the White House.

[squirrelarmy]

Just now, mcshed said:

Note 538's final headline was a fine line between landslide and nailbiter, we got a nailbiter it's hard to say they got it completely wrong. 

Currently it’s nailbiting but if the remaining 4 close states go blue that’s going to be a significant final result over trump. Either 56 or 57 EC votes can be gained for Biden if my maths is right. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mcshed said:

I have been one of the staunchest defenders of the polls and whilst I agree that they are off this time round and they are consistently being off in the same direction which looks like a systematic problem that needs work. I'm not prepared to say the polls are useless go with Matt's gut.

Matt's gut called it for Trump the polls called it for Biden. It looks like Biden will win, currently he has between a 2 and 3% popular lead before all the postal votes that weren't delivered like the courts demanded yesterday, so if you give Biden a 3% lead that is only 5% off 538's final average lead of 8% which although off isn't that bad.  Note 538's final headline was a fine line between landslide and nailbiter, we got a nailbiter it's hard to say they got it completely wrong. 

Predictions will only give you probabilities our brains deal in certainties so unless the polls are spot on we say they're wrong. They are actually further off this time than in 2016 and so they need to look at that and try and fix it but if there is another election next year (Holyrood) I'll listen to the polls before Matt's gut.

I'm not really trying to single out Matt I'm using Matt's gut to mean general people relying on vibes. 

Some of us spent a fair bit of time presenting quite a bit of data and information as well. Information which gave a strong chance of Biden of winning and as of right now there is still a strong chance of Biden winning. To be fair to Matt he gave credit yesterday to those who gave information.

It will be interesting to see how the the pollsters respond or even how out they were. 

[Guest]

Also here’s the current share of Bidens vote for PA and GA since last night. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, mcshed said:

I have been one of the staunchest defenders of the polls and whilst I agree that they are off this time round and they are consistently being off in the same direction which looks like a systematic problem that needs work. I'm not prepared to say the polls are useless go with Matt's gut.

Matt's gut called it for Trump the polls called it for Biden. It looks like Biden will win, currently he has between a 2 and 3% popular lead before all the postal votes that weren't delivered like the courts demanded yesterday, so if you give Biden a 3% lead that is only 5% off 538's final average lead of 8% which although off isn't that bad.  Note 538's final headline was a fine line between landslide and nailbiter, we got a nailbiter it's hard to say they got it completely wrong. 

Predictions will only give you probabilities our brains deal in certainties so unless the polls are spot on we say they're wrong. They are actually further off this time than in 2016 and so they need to look at that and try and fix it but if there is another election next year (Holyrood) I'll listen to the polls before Matt's gut.

I'm not really trying to single out Matt I'm using Matt's gut to mean general people relying on vibes. 

I agree. I'm not going to start going with my gut instead of trying to reason things out, but in this case Matt's gut (and lots of actual reasons, not just a gut feel) actually contained lots of useful information. To ignore that information would to be act as irrationally as we were accusing him of being before the election.

[FloorFiller]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Also here’s the current share of Bidens vote for PA and GA since last night. 

GA is gonna be so damn close. Obviously it’s not needed for Bidens win, but it would be so sweet.

PA must be a good bet now too considering how much it’s gone up for Biden overnight.

Surely we’ll be getting a near enough final decision by tonight, even if there is stuff left to count.

[mcshed]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I agree. I'm not going to start going with my gut instead of trying to reason things out, but in this case Matt's gut (and lots of actual reasons, not just a gut feel) actually contained lots of useful information. To ignore that information would to be act as irrationally as we were accusing him of being before the election.

As I say I'm not really trying to single out Matt he has been mostly pretty sensible he has also been the most clear voice against the polling which is why I used him.

There is a big anti-polling reaction to this result which I think is unfair and I'm trying to stick up for them a bit.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

GA is gonna be so damn close. Obviously it’s not needed for Bidens win, but it would be so sweet.

PA must be a good bet now too considering how much it’s gone up for Biden overnight.

Surely we’ll be getting a near enough final decision by tonight, even if there is stuff left to count.

 

[1986]

26 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Is Kanye president yet?

https://news.avclub.com/heres-how-many-people-voted-for-kanye-west-1845575511