U.S. Presidential Election

[Fuzzy Afro]

Nate Silver basically saying the polls are off by the same amount they were in 2016. 2016 polling error took it from “close Clinton” to “close Trump” whereas 2020 error took it from “fairly comfortable Biden” to “close Biden” 

[zero000]

Worth pointing out that this might be a problem specifically with polling the American population. The polling for the U.K. election last year was almost bang on, in projecting the Tory majority. 

[squirrelarmy]

8 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Well the polls predicted Biden to win Florida. That’s not just ‘one’ state either, it’s a crucial state in this election.

What did your sources say about Biden getting Georgia? For me that will be the big surprise considering it’s at the heart of the old confederacy. 

[Matt42]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

What did your sources say about Biden getting Georgia? For me that will be the big surprise considering it’s at the heart of the old confederacy. 

Literally nothing about that, they are really surprised it’s a close race but they think it will go Red in the end.

They put it down to the cities in Georgia over time becoming more diverse and progressive. Also that it’s not really the state it used to be a while ago.

They still think it will go red, but may be a good sign of things to come in the future. But no, they didn’t see this one coming.

Georgia may be a warning to the republicans that the democrats are making gains in some of their safe seats.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Matt42

[Crazyfool01]

Does anyone know why they have such a big gap between the vote and the potential new president taking office ? Is it just to give enough time for all the appeals to take place ... it seems mad that there is  a 2 month vacuume 

Edited November 5, 2020 by crazyfool1

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Does anyone know why they have such a big gap between the vote and the potential new president taking office ? Is it just to give enough time for all the appeals to take place ... it seems mad that there is  a 2 month vacuume 

Handover. Something something constitution. 

I’m afraid we’re a pretty brutal country by booting the current leader out the back door on Election Day. Overnight people getting sacked. 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Matt42

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Handover. Something something constitution. 

I’m afraid we’re a pretty brutal country by booting the current leader out the back door on Election Day. Overnight people getting sacked. 

Nothing better than watching some shadow chancellor lose his job at 3am in a leisure centre on live tv 

[steviewevie]

In the end, it's good that Trump is (probably) out of office because he just too fucked up...but there isn't that much else  good that's come from this election. Trump did much better than expected despite what has been a terrible year with the pandemic...and the US is obviously massively still polarised. In the end US is a conservative country, a lot of people like low taxes, god and guns. I really can't see Kamala Harris being the next president, let alone someone further to the left. Also, the republicans have control of the senate...and the likes of McConnell will do their best to make sure everything gets blocked and help the republicans win the presidency next time...could even be Trump...he'll be able to say Biden got nothing done etc etc.

[squirrelarmy]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Does anyone know why they have such a big gap between the vote and the potential new president taking office ? Is it just to give enough time for all the appeals to take place ... it seems mad that there is  a 2 month vacuume 

This isn’t the actual election that decides who the president is. 
This vote is the people choosing how they want their states electoral college to vote. 
 

It’s always taken time to collate all the votes and the electoral college will make the actual presidential vote in a few weeks. We just know how the electoral college will vote in advance because technology means we know results sooner. 

Edited November 5, 2020 by squirrelarmy

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Handover. Something something constitution. 

I’m afraid we’re a pretty brutal country by booting the current leader out the back door on Election Day. Overnight people getting sacked. 

Isn’t it better that the next people in can get on with something though ...rather than have a period of suspended animation ....  

[Kurosagi]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Does anyone know why they have such a big gap between the vote and the potential new president taking office ? Is it just to give enough time for all the appeals to take place ... it seems mad that there is  a 2 month vacuume 

Set up in ye olden days innit. Everyone had to travel by horse.

[FloorFiller]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Handover. Something something constitution. 

I’m afraid we’re a pretty brutal country by booting the current leader out the back door on Election Day. Overnight people getting sacked. 

Unfortunately for somebody like Trump it now gives him a couple of months of ‘I have nothing to lose’ behaviour. Can’t even fathom the bullshit he’s gonna try and pull, and then how they’re gonna handle him undoubtedly refusing to appear at Bidens inauguration for the handover.

[Kurosagi]

Just now, FloorFiller said:

Unfortunately for somebody like Trump it now gives him a couple of months of ‘I have nothing to lose’ behaviour. Can’t even fathom the bullshit he’s gonna try and pull, and then how they’re gonna handle him undoubtedly refusing to appear at Bidens inauguration for the handover.

...thought he was leaving the country if he loses.

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

Unfortunately for somebody like Trump it now gives him a couple of months of ‘I have nothing to lose’ behaviour. Can’t even fathom the bullshit he’s gonna try and pull, and then how they’re gonna handle him undoubtedly refusing to appear at Bidens inauguration for the handover.

Is his power reduced for these 2 months? 

And actually, who makes key decisions like wars etc? Do the military have to go to biden also if they want to advance their plans in the Middle East? Or does Trump approve it? 

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

...thought he was leaving the country if he loses.

[Kurosagi]

24 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Nate Silver basically saying the polls are off by the same amount they were in 2016. 2016 polling error took it from “close Clinton” to “close Trump” whereas 2020 error took it from “fairly comfortable Biden” to “close Biden” 

I've been keeping an eye on the Economist's model prediction guy and he's pretty much grumpy with how people are interpreting polls and polling methodology:

 

[jparx]

Oooh Georgia has had some more votes. It’s narrowing again.

Is there enough left ?!?!

[Homer]

Was thinking earlier (I know Trumpers aren't big on logic but anyway), would be interested to know, in the history of rigged elections, how often the opposition party has managed to pull this off? Kind of feels like it would be a hell of an achievement to manage this if you're not actually in power! @Copperfacemay be able to shed some light?

[Kurosagi]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

Excellent post.

Time to draw up an efests sweepstake?

[squirrelarmy]

New results coming in from Georgia. CNN annoyingly gone to an ad break. 

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, Kurosagi said:

Excellent post.

Time to draw up an efests sweepstake?

Chad seems appropriate 

[Matt42]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

Was thinking earlier (I know Trumpers aren't big on logic but anyway), would be interested to know, in the history of rigged elections, how often the opposition party has managed to pull this off? Kind of feels like it would be a hell of an achievement to manage this if you're not actually in power! @Copperfacemay be able to shed some light?

I think the Bush / Gore result is the only one in recent history where some mess or fuckery was involved at the end.

[squirrelarmy]

Down to 18k in Georgia 4% outstanding mainly from Atlanta 

[Matt42]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

Down to 18k in Georgia 4% outstanding mainly from Atlanta 

Really really good news for the democrats. Doesn’t just give them a solid result in a trump state but identify to them new states which they can turn their attention to.

A Trump safe seat has just shown the democrats that there is a place for them there!

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

This isn’t the actual election that decides who the president is. 
This vote is the people choosing how they want their states electoral college to vote. 
 

It’s always taken time to collate all the votes and the electoral college will make the actual presidential vote in a few weeks. We just know how the electoral college will vote in advance because technology means we know results sooner. 

It’s this. Also because there needs to be time in case there are any problems like we are seeing now.