2021 Going ahead?

[CG31]

10 hours ago, Matt42 said:

You need to factor in time into that thought to measure effectiveness? They need to see evidence it’s working on a major scale before 100,000+ events can go ahead.

That’s true yeah, and especially as I saw articles saying there’s potential for a Summer lockdown I now am resigned to say 2021 is another missed festival 

[metallimuse]

The First Minister in Scotland saying festivals may not happen this year, TRNSMT would have been July, so just another indication that it doesn’t look good for festival season.

I thought there was a chance for R&L but increasingly I think not now.

[Matt42]

Have I missed some comms on this? 

in the article it says R&L will be making an announcement on whether they plan to go ahead 1 March?
 

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-55767061

[CG31]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

Have I missed some comms on this? 

in the article it says R&L will be making an announcement on whether they plan to go ahead 1 March?
 

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-55767061

Yh, they responded to a tweet saying there’ll be an announcement then. 

[Jericode]

By March 1st is the part people keep leaving out, it'll be before then in all likelihood

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jericode

[Tom Connolly]

this thread literally can be closed now with the answer no. it’s an absolute gutter but let’s not kid ourselves

[Benj]

Yup, if there is a go/ no go call being made pre March it’s a no go and they’ll just be tying up the legal aspects of it before announcing it. 
 

 

[Matt42]

By March is very interesting. I wonder if their year end is in April and they do the budget then? Just a guess.

Maybe March is when they have to start spending serious money. Who knows?

Either way I highly doubt we will be in a situation any different in a month or so time

[eFestivals]

11 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Either way I highly doubt we will be in a situation any different in a month or so time

there should be a noticeable change in the data for hospitalisations and deaths, as a result of the vaccines.

[Newjem]

28 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

there should be a noticeable change in the data for hospitalisations and deaths, as a result of the vaccines.

There should but look at Israel. They've vaccinated over 30% of their entire population, yet nothing has changed really.

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

there should be a noticeable change in the data for hospitalisations and deaths, as a result of the vaccines.

I’m talking in terms of restrictions though. It’s highly unlikely things are going to move that fast.

[eFestivals]

15 hours ago, Newjem said:

There should but look at Israel. They've vaccinated over 30% of their entire population, yet nothing has changed really.

it takes (around) 6+ weeks from vaccination to a fall in deaths as a result of vaccination, so they're not quite there yet.
(Just googled, and they had around 10% done by 1st Jan, so those will only be vaccine-'protected' from about now).

There's data supposedly showing a positive effect (such as reduced sickness time from medics), although it's currently difficult to pick out as caused by the vaccine and when Israel is vaccinating all age groups and they're currently locked down.

[eFestivals]

14 hours ago, Matt42 said:

I’m talking in terms of restrictions though. It’s highly unlikely things are going to move that fast.

In terms of hospitalisations and daily deaths, they should move pretty fast once the effect of the vaccine is in play (as long as the vaccine lives up to the claims).

It's only really now coming into play for the first people vaccinated (because the same number as you'd expect without the vaccine will have caught covid in the week or two after they were vaccinated).

I'm confident that we should be able to point at something in the data before the end of February which we can put down to the vaccine - and that bit of data is likely to be a sharp drop in hospitalisations for the oldies.

[Jack.194]

Now the big G has fallen Reading is my next go-to.

No idea if it’ll happen or not, but I’m keeping everything crossed.

[Benj]

Latest news on vaccines reducing transmission raises hope back up a little, assuming the decision has not already been made.

 

 

[eFestivals]

46 minutes ago, Benj said:

Latest news on vaccines reducing transmission raises hope back up a little, assuming the decision has not already been made.

 

 

I reckon no decision will made until at least Spaffer has given his out-of-lockdown roadmap later this month. Hopefully there'll be some sort of indicator within that for how the govt plan to open up for big crowd events.

[swelsbyuk]

If Govt allows 100,000 punters to gather together and there is a significant outbreak then they will be torn apart by the media and it will be added to the list of perceived mistakes they have made in handling the pandemic. 

They couldn't care less about R&L, but they do care about pleasing 100,000 voters. I suspect they will strive for it to go ahead to please said voters, but won't give it the thumbs up until it is 99.9% guaranteed to be safe. They've learned lessons from pushing their luck in trying to please people in the past.

[Benj]

On 2/3/2021 at 8:55 AM, swelsbyuk said:

If Govt allows 100,000 punters to gather together and there is a significant outbreak then they will be torn apart by the media and it will be added to the list of perceived mistakes they have made in handling the pandemic. 

They couldn't care less about R&L, but they do care about pleasing 100,000 voters. I suspect they will strive for it to go ahead to please said voters, but won't give it the thumbs up until it is 99.9% guaranteed to be safe. They've learned lessons from pushing their luck in trying to please people in the past.

You wouldn’t put it past them to error again lengthening the outro to all of this!

Hopefully a decision will be based on numbers and strong data as to what the risk is as opposed to politics. 
 

Assuming transmission is cut by as much as they say and the vaccines are as effective as they are in reducing each tier of illness, then, on the current timeline of eveyone in the country being vax’d by the end of June, there should be no reason for the festival to not go ahead

Edited February 5, 2021 by Benj

[Oboy82]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55946043?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=601d904ca18b7802e53a1a36%26Lifting restrictions fully by September 'would cause significant further disease'%262021-02-05T18%3A43%3A28.340Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:ca5fda7d-bfa4-4aa4-bb1c-e744d899b67a&pinned_post_asset_id=601d904ca18b7802e53a1a36&pinned_post_type=share 

Would be amazed if they go against this SAGE advice. They can't afford another lockdown to be because they ignored the science .  We will have a loosening of restrictions but nowhere near a chance of normal gigs or fests thus year. 

[eFestivals]

11 hours ago, Oboy82 said:

Would be amazed if they go against this SAGE advice. They can't afford another lockdown to be because they ignored the science .  We will have a loosening of restrictions but nowhere near a chance of normal gigs or fests thus year. 

they've gone against SAGE advice all the way thru, I'm not sure why they'd act on this one. 😛

More seriously, as long as there's not variants the vaccines don't work for, once they start to get good data on the vaccine effect they should be able to model pretty accurately how things might pan out next winter, and how what happens in August might feed into that.

I think there's going to be some normal festivals as they started to roll-out (socially distanced) outdoor crowd events even before the vaccine - and while those were limited and the crowds didn't get very big, I haven't seen anything about them causing a spike in infections.

I can see them doing similar during the summer - but without social distancing - as they need to try and gauge what impact outdoor crowds have. Whether the size of event gets up to R/L's size I'm not sure, but there's certainly some hope if testing is added into the mix too.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed. It's not over till its over. 🙂  

(indoor gigs is something different to outdoor crowds).

[thewayiam]

13 hours ago, Oboy82 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55946043?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=601d904ca18b7802e53a1a36%26Lifting restrictions fully by September 'would cause significant further disease'%262021-02-05T18%3A43%3A28.340Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:ca5fda7d-bfa4-4aa4-bb1c-e744d899b67a&pinned_post_asset_id=601d904ca18b7802e53a1a36&pinned_post_type=share 

Would be amazed if they go against this SAGE advice. They can't afford another lockdown to be because they ignored the science .  We will have a loosening of restrictions but nowhere near a chance of normal gigs or fests thus year. 

I'm with you. I agree they haven't followed science advice until this last step where they did but late. Scientists advised, Kier Starmer agreed and Boris finally did as he wouldn't be told when to act. But they can't get this wrong. There is no point is saying right the over 50s are done by May, we are good to go with smaller events where the about of over 50s, even over 40s attending is in the minority to zero. I'm not saying older people don't attend music events at all but take Glastonbury and the odd big day like BST with Duran Duran out. How many festival's after June will not be centred around a young crowd? It's too late to think about just the elderly, people of all ages have been positive and they need to stop that.

Many people in the UK now would vote that things are just postponed rather than do it half arsed. You're probably looking at maybe and it's a MAYBE the likes of Solfest going ahead with social distancing and less capacity measures. I know it's one for the older attendee. Obviously there will be others.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

I'm with you. I agree they haven't followed science advice until this last step where they did but late. Scientists advised, Kier Starmer agreed and Boris finally did as he wouldn't be told when to act. But they can't get this wrong. There is no point is saying right the over 50s are done by May, we are good to go with smaller events where the about of over 50s, even over 40s attending is in the minority to zero. I'm not saying older people don't attend music events at all but take Glastonbury and the odd big day like BST with Duran Duran out. How many festival's after June will not be centred around a young crowd? It's too late to think about just the elderly, people of all ages have been positive and they need to stop that.

Many people in the UK now would vote that things are just postponed rather than do it half arsed. You're probably looking at maybe and it's a MAYBE the likes of Solfest going ahead with social distancing and less capacity measures. I know it's one for the older attendee. Obviously there will be others.

But....

Covid is primarily a winter respiratory illness, and the risks of cross-infection are exceedingly low (compared to other settings) outdoors in summer, as last summer showed.

And we should have a handle on the risks that younger people pose within a partly-vaccinated society when schools (and perhaps unis) start going back next month.

As things stand, for everyone aged 18+ the vaccination programme and associated effect (21 days after jab) is on course to be completed around mid-July. 

And a testing passport for gigs, etc, is just being trialed (just heard it on 6music). Melvin will be right on that.

I'd say that right now there's every reason to be positive about a large festival in late August - although of course things might change with that - and the biggest problem that R/L probably face is getting a good-enough indication of that in the near future so they can plan with confidence.

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

it's a MAYBE the likes of Solfest going ahead with social distancing and less capacity measures

no, festivals with social distancing and a lower capacity is a certainty for this summer (if that's what's required), just as it was a certainty last summer where a small number happened without covid concerns or incidents.

[thewayiam]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

But....

Covid is primarily a winter respiratory illness, and the risks of cross-infection are exceedingly low (compared to other settings) outdoors in summer, as last summer showed.

And we should have a handle on the risks that younger people pose within a partly-vaccinated society when schools (and perhaps unis) start going back next month.

As things stand, for everyone aged 18+ the vaccination programme and associated effect (21 days after jab) is on course to be completed around mid-July. 

And a testing passport for gigs, etc, is just being trialed (just heard it on 6music). Melvin will be right on that.

I'd say that right now there's every reason to be positive about a large festival in late August - although of course things might change with that - and the biggest problem that R/L probably face is getting a good-enough indication of that in the near future so they can plan with confidence.

You think 18+ will with the added extra 21 days settle time will be done by mid July? They might not have even started having it.

Also, Sziget bring the first weekend in August has pulled the plug until next year. I'd say Reading has a little over 20 days to confirm a yes or not and the above estimated time needs to drop massively. It's not a time to waste money testing everyone going in....who knows what could be picked up inside and that many young people aren't all going to be social distancing.

[thewayiam]

14 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

no, festivals with social distancing and a lower capacity is a certainty for this summer (if that's what's required), just as it was a certainty last summer where a small number happened without covid concerns or incidents.

Yes social distancing was a certainly. I was just using the term in speech.

If Boris ignores scientists again....which he finally took notice of this year albeit 2+weeks late, and then it spirals numbers again and it goes to pot.

He will have riots on his hands, not just what we've seen but bad riots well out of control. People everywhere will not care anymore and lockdown will become all but a word. He won't have to get the army on the streets, he will have no choice and number 10 will be targeted very badly and to be honest you can't blame anyone. 

For the good of the country events need young clearance to go ahead.

As for your thoughts on lower numbers in the summer. As I said to another I think we were in lockdown for a lot of it so I remember and other countries doing well have backing information that says summertime is no better off. In fact countries that have done this well did better in the colder months. We happened to have had the cold kick in early last year and well made a right hash of lockdown as we all known....too late....too lax too early etc etc.