LAWKS! It’s the Next Announcement Thread 2022!

[Crazyfool01]

10 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

I’ve always thought there’d be more in the pot this year. So much shit has happened. Hope you snag the golden resales.

Cheers … with the lack of announcement today I’ve been setting up resale hq in my spare bedroom 🙂 

[incident]

9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I remember when I suggested that the resale might be decent this year and there weren’t many that agreed with me … 

While there's positive signs, I wouldn't celebrate yet (not suggesting that's what you're doing).

Even with there likely being more tickets in the pot due to life circumstances, pandemic nervousness, or lineup petulance, I'm still certain that the number of people wanting tickets in the resale will still comfortably exceed the amount available - maybe by several times over. My group is still going to be bang on the case and going out all guns blazing to pick up the remaining ones we need and I'm sure you'll be doing the same.

[blutarsky]

32 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

All it takes is one seriously wet year, logistics issues or whatever and the festival may have less demand than usual.  

You might be right but given the normal demand is around 2m people trying for 142k tickets*, I reckon they’ll be ok. 

And with the “I was there”, “got the insta snap”, event driven culture we live in nowadays I think they’ll be selling out for the foreseeable, bad year or not. The festival is too big and professional for anything to go wrong enough that 2m people would all be put off trying for tickets. 
 

*citation needed - remember reading this but can’t find where. 

[jparx]

Just now, Gilgamesh69 said:

Why can't it come on Friday though?

 

I wish I could understand the thought processes of some of you

Friday night would seem unlikely but certainly tomorrow morning could be on the cards. Tbh it’s Glastonbury and whenever they announce it’ll be big news, so I’m not sure any time or day is totally off the table.

[Matt42]

V Festival, T In The Park, Reading and Leeds all used to be instant sell outs no matter the lineup. Once they lost it seemingly out of nowhere it had a huge impact on the festival. Only now has R&L returned to a point of actually selling out a few months in advance!

My point is that Glasto taking the stance of making everyone pay up before the lineup may work in the immediate term, but it’s a risky move to assume for the future and beyond. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Matt42

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, incident said:

While there's positive signs, I wouldn't celebrate yet (not suggesting that's what you're doing).

Even with there likely being more tickets in the pot due to life circumstances, pandemic nervousness, or lineup petulance, I'm still certain that the number of people wanting tickets in the resale will still comfortably exceed the amount available - maybe by several times over. My group is still going to be bang on the case and going out all guns blazing to pick up the remaining ones we need and I'm sure you'll be doing the same.

Oh for definate .. see above … 

[blutarsky]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Well now you’re not reading what I’m saying.

They aren’t taking people for granted but they are taking the fact that they always sell out for granted. Or that they feel like they can shake things up and make people pay full balances before seeing the lineup. I’m not doubting they can pull it off, it’s just not a decision I would make in the current circumstances. I just think it’s ballsy for a festival that relies on instant sell out to start assuming customer behaviour. 

They don’t rely on instant sell out at all. It just happens because the festival is so popular. What matters is selling out, not when it happens. They could sell the last ticket on the gate on the Friday morning and they make the same money. Granted the festival wouldn’t have quite the same aura and the tickets wouldn’t be so “golden” but a sell out is a sell out, whenever it’s sold out. 

[Memory Man]

2 minutes ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

Why can't it come on Friday though?

 

I wish I could understand the thought processes of some of you

They havent made many announcements on fridays previously

[incident]

1 minute ago, blutarsky said:

You might be right but given the normal demand is around 2m people trying for 142k tickets*, I reckon they’ll be ok. 

And with the “I was there”, “got the insta snap”, event driven culture we live in nowadays I think they’ll be selling out for the foreseeable, bad year or not. The festival is too big and professional for anything to go wrong enough that 2m people would all be put off trying for tickets. 
 

*citation needed - remember reading this but can’t find where. 

I think the 2m number comes from unique sessions on the web site - and is clearly bollocks as there'll be multiple devices all over the shop.

My guess is that the "real" demand is somewhere in the 200k-300k range but who knows for sure. After the last October sale, anecdotally it felt like the hit rate reported here and on social media averaged out to about 50%.

[Hugh Jass II]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Well now you’re not reading what I’m saying.

They aren’t taking people for granted but they are taking the fact that they always sell out for granted. Or that they feel like they can shake things up and make people pay full balances before seeing the lineup. I’m not doubting they can pull it off, it’s just not a decision I would make in the current circumstances. I just think it’s ballsy for a festival that relies on instant sell out to start assuming customer behaviour. 

But again… what evidence do you have for any of this??? How are they taking anything for granted?? You make these statements as if they are fact with absolutely nothing to substantiate them.

People might stop going to festivals for any number of reasons, barring something like a massive price hike or a sudden interest in booking Marilyn Manson and that guy from Lost Prophets, I can’t see it having much to with Glastonbury if they decide not to.

The world isn’t going to lose interest in Glastonbury overnight.

[the wonderwhy]

Bed’s going away 

[incident]

2 minutes ago, blutarsky said:

They don’t rely on instant sell out at all. It just happens because the festival is so popular. What matters is selling out, not when it happens. They could sell the last ticket on the gate on the Friday morning and they make the same money. Granted the festival wouldn’t have quite the same aura and the tickets wouldn’t be so “golden” but a sell out is a sell out, whenever it’s sold out. 

Minor point that needs to be made on that - they do want to sell out a bit sooner than Friday morning.

A couple of main reasons - Firstly for planning purposes, it helps to know exact numbers, and they can set camping field sizes, charge traders, etc accordingly. Secondly, when that exact scenario happened and they (allegedly, though I doubt it) sold out on the Friday of 2008 it was after spending a bit more cash they normally wouldn't have to - advertising, opening up additional sales channels such as selling in HMV stores, etc.

But yeah, that aside your basic point still stands, it doesn't need to be instant. Within a month would make no difference.

[Matt42]

4 minutes ago, blutarsky said:

They don’t rely on instant sell out at all. It just happens because the festival is so popular. What matters is selling out, not when it happens. They could sell the last ticket on the gate on the Friday morning and they make the same money. Granted the festival wouldn’t have quite the same aura and the tickets wouldn’t be so “golden” but a sell out is a sell out, whenever it’s sold out. 

No they do rely on the festival selling out. They also rely on the instant sell out to get some of their big headliners. Saying it won’t impact their ticket sales because tickets have already gone. Probably helps them navigate through exclusive bookings.

Lots of moving parts associated with it that would change a lot of things if it one day stopped.

[blutarsky]

5 minutes ago, incident said:

I think the 2m number comes from unique sessions on the web site - and is clearly bollocks as there'll be multiple devices all over the shop.

My guess is that the "real" demand is somewhere in the 200k-300k range but who knows for sure. After the last October sale, anecdotally it felt like the hit rate reported here and on social media averaged out to about 50%.

Your estimate seems low to me. Of all the people I know The hit rate was way lower than 50%. I’m fairly confident the figure I quoted was to do with active registrations rather than sessions on the website. 

[incident]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

No they do rely on the festival selling out. They also rely on the instant sell out to get some of their big headliners. Saying it won’t impact their ticket sales because tickets have already gone. Probably helps them navigate through exclusive bookings.

Lots of moving parts associated with it that would change a lot of things if it one day stopped.

Though the year that we had arguably the biggest headline trio in festival history came immediately after the only year in the last 20 where the festival didn't sell out in advance (and itself took a few months to sell)

[blutarsky]

4 minutes ago, the wonderwhy said:

Bed’s going away 

I’m looking good for my bet of 18th March

2 minutes ago, incident said:

Minor point that needs to be made on that - they do want to sell out a bit sooner than Friday morning.

A couple of main reasons - Firstly for planning purposes, it helps to know exact numbers, and they can set camping field sizes, charge traders, etc accordingly. Secondly, when that exact scenario happened and they (allegedly, though I doubt it) sold out on the Friday of 2008 it was after spending a bit more cash they normally wouldn't have to - advertising, opening up additional sales channels such as selling in HMV stores, etc.

But yeah, that aside your basic point still stands, it doesn't need to be instant. Within a month would make no difference.

Yes, you’re right - some extra expenditure and effect on planning but as you say the basic point remains. 

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

No they do rely on the festival selling out. They also rely on the instant sell out to get some of their big headliners. Saying it won’t impact their ticket sales because tickets have already gone. Probably helps them navigate through exclusive bookings.

Lots of moving parts associated with it that would change a lot of things if it one day stopped.

I’m not saying they don’t rely on it. I’m saying that as long as it sells out it doesn’t matter too much. I take your point that it would alter how they negotiated a few things, but ultimately they are still in a position of being one of the 2/3 biggest festivals in the world with 230,000 people on site. 

[the wonderwhy]

8 minutes ago, incident said:

While there's positive signs, I wouldn't celebrate yet (not suggesting that's what you're doing).

Even with there likely being more tickets in the pot due to life circumstances, pandemic nervousness, or lineup petulance, I'm still certain that the number of people wanting tickets in the resale will still comfortably exceed the amount available - maybe by several times over. My group is still going to be bang on the case and going out all guns blazing to pick up the remaining ones we need and I'm sure you'll be doing the same.

For all these people WITH a ticket in these situations there's also going to be a bunch of people WITHOUT a ticket in the same boat.

So while I can totally see the argument people are making that there's a bunch of pent up demand born out of frustration or whatever of not being able to even try to get a ticket for a couple of years, I don't think it'll play out much differently to a normal resale. It'll be another gone in about 10 minutes job I reckon. 

[Hugh Jass II]

2 minutes ago, blutarsky said:

Your estimate seems low to me. Of all the people I know The hit rate was way lower than 50%. I’m fairly confident the figure I quoted was to do with active registrations rather than sessions on the website. 

Definitely feels low to me, T-Day 2019 was utterly brutal. Not one person I know even saw a booking screen and between us we usually have a good track record. I was just lucky a kindly efester sorted me out.

[Matt42]

Just now, incident said:

Though the year that we had arguably the biggest headline trio in festival history came immediately after the only year in the last 20 where the festival didn't sell out in advance (and itself took a few months to sell)

Debatable that 2009 had the biggest headline trio but whatever. I’d say 2020 was bigger. 

How many of these big shiny glittery American acts would headline glasto if it became competition to their own ticket sales? They can sign up to Glasto and put their own shows on sale and not worry about any clash.

All I’m saying is the model of the festival selling out gives way for Glastonbury to be what it is. I find it interesting they are testing what the limits of it is.

9 minutes ago, Hugh Jass II said:

But again… what evidence do you have for any of this??? How are they taking anything for granted?? You make these statements as if they are fact with absolutely nothing to substantiate them.

People might stop going to festivals for any number of reasons, barring something like a massive price hike or a sudden interest in booking Marilyn Manson and that guy from Lost Prophets, I can’t see it having much to with Glastonbury if they decide not to.

The world isn’t going to lose interest in Glastonbury overnight.

When was the last time we had to fully pay up before the lineup? Probably before I started going.

[incident]

1 minute ago, blutarsky said:

Your estimate seems low to me. Of all the people I know The hit rate was way lower than 50%. I’m fairly confident the figure I quoted was to do with active registrations rather than sessions on the website. 

Oh, it could well be low. It's an educated guess at best - the problem is that even the Festival won't be able to have a confident number as while they know there's untapped demand with hundreds of thousands of people trying and failing to get to the ticket page, they can't really tell what that'd translate into sales wise - for example there could potentially be a hundred people with 5 devices each from the same group all trying to get that one last ticket. That's an extreme example, but there'll be something along those lines happening towards the end of the sales.

[blutarsky]

Just now, Hugh Jass II said:

Definitely feels low to me, T-Day 2019 was utterly brutal. Not one person I know even saw a booking screen and between us we usually have a good track record. I was just lucky a kindly efester sorted me out.

Exactly this. The thingy will know but wasn’t it sold out in under 30 minutes? 

[blutarsky]

1 minute ago, incident said:

Oh, it could well be low. It's an educated guess at best - the problem is that even the Festival won't be able to have a confident number as while they know there's untapped demand with hundreds of thousands of people trying and failing to get to the ticket page, they can't really tell what that'd translate into sales wise - for example there could potentially be a hundred people with 5 devices each from the same group all trying to get that one last ticket. That's an extreme example, but there'll be something along those lines happening towards the end of the sales.

Active registrations gives a good idea. They’ll also know how many people logged into their accounts to check their registrations ahead of the sale. 
They could also look at how many tickets were bought by people who didn’t check their registrations and extrapolate from there to figure out a total number of people who hadn’t checked to add that sum. 
 

# active users who checked reg in month before ticket sale 

+ 

# of tickets sold to people who didn’t check ref 

+ 

# of people who tried without checking Rev based on the percentage of tickets sold to non checkers (I.e 10% sold to non checkers means you can add 10% to the number of people who checked registrations but failed to secure tickets) 

= rough total

 

typed this on my phone so it looks a mess but hopefully you get my point 

 

[Gnomicide]

 

6 minutes ago, blutarsky said:

Exactly this. The thingy will know but wasn’t it sold out in under 30 minutes? 

Here's all the info I have on sell out times:

When is the Ticket Sale?
By Year:
And how long does it take to sell out?
2002 
22 February (Fri): Tickets on sale - Sold out after 25 days
 
2003
31 March (Mon): Tickets on sale - Sold out in 26 hours
 
2004
1 April (Thu): Tickets on sale - Sold out in 24 hours
 
2005
3 April (Sun): Tickets on sale - Sold out in 1 hour 45 Minutes

2007
1 April (Sun): Tickets on sale (1st year of registration system) - Sold out in 2 hours
 
2008
6 April (Sun): Tickets on sale - Sold out one day before the festival
 
2009
5 October 2008 (Sun): Tickets on sale - Sold out in February
 
2010
4 October 2009 (Sun): Tickets on sale - Sold out in 12 hours
 
2011
3 October 2010 (Sun): Tickets on sale - Sold out in 4 hours
 
2013
7 October 2012 (Sun): Tickets on sale - Sold out in 1 hour 40 minutes
 
2014
3 October 2013 (Thu): Coach packages on sale - Sold out in 28 minutes
6 October (Sun): General tickets on sale - Sold out in 1 hour 27 minutes
 
2015
1 October 2014 (Wed): Coach packages on sale - Sold out in 15 minutes
5 October (Sun): General tickets on sale - Sold out in 26 minutes
 
2016
1 October 2015 (Thu): Coach packages on sale - Sold out in 23 minutes
4 October (Sun): General tickets on sale - Sold out in 33 minutes
 
2017
6 October 2016 (Thu): Coach packages on sale - Sold out in 22 minutes
9 October (Sun): General tickets on sale - Sold out in 50 minutes
 
2019
4 October 2018 (Thu): Coach packages on sale - Sold out in 29 minutes
7 October 2018 (Sun): General tickets on sale - Sold out in 36 minutes

2020
3 October 2019 (Thu): Coach packages on sale - Sold out in 27 minutes 
6 October 2019 (Sun): General tickets on sale - Sold out in 34 minutes

Edited March 3, 2022 by Gnomicide

[whitehorses]

8 minutes ago, Hugh Jass II said:

Definitely feels low to me, T-Day 2019 was utterly brutal. Not one person I know even saw a booking screen and between us we usually have a good track record. I was just lucky a kindly efester sorted me out.

I’ve never seen a booking screen. 

[the wonderwhy]

That's interesting that the 2019-2020 difference was exactly 2 minutes in both sales