news & politics:discussion

[Guest]

The Chancellor is lauding the fact that Britain won’t be in a technical recession yet the economy is due to grow by -0.2% this year. Yet they will expect all the praise for this wonderful achievement. 

[mattiloy]

12 minutes ago, Neil said:

the days of Ireland living it up on EU funds are over.

The days of England living it up on oil money never begun. Because England is a profligate basket case ruled and populated by idiots. Scotland should get out whilst it can.

[Guest]

A big tax break for the rich with the abolishment of lifetime allowances on pensions. Typical Tories. 

[Neil]

25 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

The days of England living it up on oil money never begun. Because England is a profligate basket case ruled and populated by idiots. Scotland should get out whilst it can.

not relevant, the oil money has gone, you do know that the uk (or scotland if indie) couldn't have done an oil fund  - ever heard of the dutch disease???

it could have been spent better than it was, pissing it on benefits was fucking stupid.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Neil

[Neil]

6the fightback againt lineker has started

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/15/gary-lineker-false-claim-i-called-northern-voters-racist-is-dangerous

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Neil said:

6the fightback againt lineker has started

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/15/gary-lineker-false-claim-i-called-northern-voters-racist-is-dangerous

yeah, saw that on ch4 news last night...some dickhead red wall tory bloke.

[Neil]

they couldn't argue back against what he said about boats, so they've found another angle.

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, Neil said:

they couldn't argue back against what he said about boats, so they've found another angle.

he called everyone nazis.

[Crazyfool01]

I feel so much better after this budget thanks Jeremy 

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, Crazyfool01 said:

doesnt the bank of England control inflation ? 

their remit is to keep inflation at 2%. the main means they have to do so is by setting interest rates. By increasing interest rates the theory is that inflation will decrease

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[cellar]

2 hours ago, Crazyfool01 said:

doesnt the bank of England control inflation ? 

 

34 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

their remit is to keep inflation at 2%. the main means they have to do so is by setting interest rates. By increasing interest rates the theory is that inflation will decrease

Just to add to this... The idea is that with higher interest rates, more people will save money - as in keep it in a bank (because they earn more from holding their money in a bank). Less spending = lower inflation. But spending is only one factor of inflation, its just the only one we can really control. Production costs, ie. Through the increased cost of fuel (war in Ukraine) is the biggest factor contributing to inflation at the moment. 

The problem is that the increased interest rates that govs have implanted to curb inflation have caused problems for banks (because they usually hedge their own liabilities against gov bonds).

------

Budget today was shit - massive benefit to the wealthy through pension reforms, and more people pushed into higher rate income tax through freezes.

Also, if Credit Suisse go under then the whole "UK will avoid recession" is likely bollocks, as we'll be heading into another global financial crisis.

Edited March 15, 2023 by cellar

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, cellar said:

Budget today was shit - massive benefit to the wealthy through pension reforms, and more people pushed into higher rate income tax through freezes.

 

yep.

but child care bit was good (although people questioning if money is enough and where all extra places and staff are going to come from)

[Crazyfool01]

so basically all the price rises we've got are already baked in unless we get some kind of price wars .... so lower inflation on top of the inflation we've got currently is gonna be shit ? 

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yep.

but child care bit was good (although people questioning if money is enough and where all extra places and staff are going to come from)

nurseries are fucked just like everything else .... cant retain staff so I cant see this solving anything 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

so basically all the price rises we've got are already baked in unless we get some kind of price wars .... so lower inflation on top of the inflation we've got currently is gonna be shit ? 

yeah...I don't know...I mean energy prices are expected to come down right..? Will food prices come down too?

[cellar]

14 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

so basically all the price rises we've got are already baked in unless we get some kind of price wars .... so lower inflation on top of the inflation we've got currently is gonna be shit ? 

Inflation is like acceleration of price... So we absolutely want it to go lower. Inflation is basically the measure of "how much do I earn?" vs "how much do things cost?" or put another way, how much spending power do I have? An Inflation rate of 10% means the cost of an average shop is going to rise by 10% in a year. 

Inflation is coming down (slowly) and should continue to come down because people are adjusting to the increased cost of energy (and rising interest rates have/will help).

If the war in Ukraine was over, that would theoretically have a massive impact on bringing Inflation lower.

But yes things are going to be shit for a while. A recession would be horrible for a lot of people.

[cellar]

17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...I don't know...I mean energy prices are expected to come down right..? Will food prices come down too?

This is true yes, but another problem besides fuel is that Ukraine and Russia are also big exporters of foods - Ukraine in particular is a massive exporter of corn for example.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

so basically all the price rises we've got are already baked in unless we get some kind of price wars .... so lower inflation on top of the inflation we've got currently is gonna be shit ? 

Yeah pretty much. Even with Sunak’s big aim of halving inflation that means that things will be still be getting more expensive just not as steeply. Plus the OBR are still saying we’ll see the biggest fall in living standards for decades so Sunak’s big aim is very good at all. 
 

We need deflation but we aren’t going to get that so prices will continue to grow and Sunak will expect everyone to think he’s done a great job. 

[Neil]

17 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We need deflation but we aren’t going to get that so prices will continue to grow and Sunak will expect everyone to think he’s done a great job. 

people won't think that unless prices fall, cos they'll still be poorer

[squirrelarmy]

Will need a significant increase in average wages to compensate. My work has been doing a small cost of living subsidy for the last 6 months or so. Works out at about 5% on top of the usual wage. Hoping that becomes a permanent increase next month, hopefully more. 

[steviewevie]

 

[lost]

Mentioned that a few weeks ago. With pay rises at higher rates though still well below inflation these are pretty big rises and could see an average income paying higher rate tax.

Tax as a share of GDP about to hit record levels surpassing the 37% previous record set in 1948.

[Neil]

44 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Will need a significant increase in average wages to compensate.

which itself drives inflation and requires another wage increase, and on and on - until some sort of equilibrium is reached).