news & politics:discussion

[fraybentos1]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/8733/housing/uk-house-prices-high

This is a good write up of why houses prices are so high and pretty much backs up what some of us have been saying. One of the points is that demand has been growing faster than supply so at least part of the reason is supply/demand. 

Point 1 is low interest rates 🤣 

[Neil]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

This is a good write up of why houses prices are so high

fourty years of the wrong policies - creating expectations which are now hard to unmake.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

fourty years of the wrong policies - creating expectations which are now hard to unmake.

I don’t necessarily think owning your own home is an expectation, I think it’s more that people just want an affordable place to live that’s secure. 

[Neil]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

Point 1 is low interest rates 🤣 

without those low rates loads of people  who have already bought houses wouldn't have been able to buy, and wouldn't be likely to ever be able to buy.

 

so the choice is lock some people out of the market for now, or lock some people out forever.

[Neil]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t necessarily think owning your own home is an expectation, I think it’s more that people just want an affordable place to live that’s secure. 

the 'affordable' part is a wrong expectation, back in 'the good old days' when everyone was lying about their income in order to get a mortgage they weren't 'affordable'.they were always just beyond what was affordable, if they're 'affordable' then everyone is able to buy and with high demand  its no easier.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Neil

[Neil]

6 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Point 1 is low interest rates 🤣 

and every other point is high demand.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Neil said:

without those low rates loads of people  who have already bought houses wouldn't have been able to buy, and wouldn't be likely to ever be able to buy.

 

so the choice is lock some people out of the market for now, or lock some people out forever.

It focusses more on low interest rates and the attractiveness of buying a property for investment purposes which is true and we’ve seen that with landlords buying properties etc.

It also supports what I was saying yesterday that on their own low interest rates would impact house prices which is why we needed other measures from the government to ensure that supply remained strong and normal working people could benefit by owning their own. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Neil said:

the 'affordable' part is a wrong expectation, back in 'the good old days' when everyone was lying about their income in order to get a mortgage they weren't 'affordable'.they were always just beyond what was affordable, if they're 'affordable' then everyone is able to buy and with high demand  its no easier.

I disagree, having the expectation of your home being affordable isn’t wrong it should be a basic tenant of human life. 

[Crazyfool01]

24 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

those poor workers ... my company is purchased with debt , it worries me at times lately you just can never be sure how safe your job is ... don't know if the govt would let a food retailer collapse with the knock on impacts ... what a mess 

[fraybentos1]

11 minutes ago, Neil said:

everyone was lying about their income

yeah everyone... i'm sure

 

12 minutes ago, Neil said:

they were always just beyond what was affordable

nope. 2 or 3 or 4x annual average income is somewhere near affordable. 10x is not 

 

12 minutes ago, Neil said:

and every other point is high demand.

And i know which one has had more impact on prices since 2008

 

16 minutes ago, Neil said:

without those low rates loads of people  who have already bought houses wouldn't have been able to buy, and wouldn't be likely to ever be able to buy.

 

so the choice is lock some people out of the market for now, or lock some people out forever.

Low IRs, temporarily allows people to buy as their monthly payments are lower, despite insane house price rises. But this only works temporarily as prices would just keep rising and rising if IRs had stayed low. 

The solution is right infront of you. I'll even spell it out:

House prices are too high and need to come down 🙂 

[Neil]

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

yeah everyone... i'm sure

it was standard.

 

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

 

nope. 2 or 3 or 4x annual average income is somewhere near affordable. 10x is not 

buying was never easy cos the market is configured to keep buying out of reach for the lowest earners.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

 

And i know which one has had more impact on prices since 2008

 

Low IRs, temporarily allows people to buy as their monthly payments are lower, despite insane house price rises. But this only works temporarily as prices would just keep rising and rising if IRs had stayed low. 

The solution is right infront of you. I'll even spell it out:

House prices are too high and need to come down 🙂 

 

[lost]

7 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

 don't know if the govt would let a food retailer collapse with the knock on impacts ... 

I think that would be a completely different scenario. From what I've read regarding Wilkos they lost all their market share to B&M, home bargains and the range.

There are simply now companies out there that do what they do alot better.

[Neil]

7 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

House prices are too high and need to come down 🙂 

how do you achieve that then smart guy???????

[Neil]

18 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I disagree, having the expectation of your home being affordable isn’t wrong it should be a basic tenant of human life. 

affordable is dependent on so many variables that the chance of them all aligning to make 'affordable' is small, its never happened in my lifetime, people still seem to believe that its achievable.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, lost said:

I think that would be a completely different scenario. From what I've read regarding Wilkos they lost all their market share to B&M, home bargains and the range.

There are simply now companies out there that do what they do alot better.

yeah indeed but recently they stopped all overtime so they could "afford" to repay the increased interest on the debt , whilst purchasing other interests ... greedy f**kers 

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, lost said:

I think that would be a completely different scenario. From what I've read regarding Wilkos they lost all their market share to B&M, home bargains and the range.

and in bristol rajani.

[Neil]

you know that the guardian does a series called 'dining across the divide' - i've just filled in the form to take part  (a free lunch if i get chosen, and maybe meet someone interesting).

[fraybentos1]

50 minutes ago, Neil said:

how do you achieve that then smart guy???????

I laid it all out yesterday you can go back and check 🙂 

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/8733/housing/uk-house-prices-high

This is a good write up of why houses prices are so high and pretty much backs up what some of us have been saying. One of the points is that demand has been growing faster than supply so at least part of the reason is supply/demand. 

yeah, so demand and supply..and low interest rates have helped fuel that demand side. So, interest rate setting is done by bank, which is supposedly independent, and I guess those ultra low interest rates after the crash were to counter the negative effects from that crash...but maybe we're paying the price for that now? Something has to give eventually.

[lost]

35 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 Something has to give eventually.

Probably but not quite at the point yet we were in 2007 when people were having meltdowns on tv demanding interest rates be cut:

 

[fraybentos1]

7 minutes ago, lost said:

Probably but not quite at the point yet we were in 2007 when people were having meltdowns on tv demanding interest rates be cut:

 

That'll be Ozanne to Andrew Bailey after the next Bank of England rate raise

[Guest]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, so demand and supply..and low interest rates have helped fuel that demand side. So, interest rate setting is done by bank, which is supposedly independent, and I guess those ultra low interest rates after the crash were to counter the negative effects from that crash...but maybe we're paying the price for that now? Something has to give eventually.

Yeah the low rates were to help the economy after the 08 crash and in the pandemic too. We are paying the price for the government not putting in place measures that would help ensure the market is fairer for everyone because people had less disposable income as wages fell in real terms and rents went up. This is ultimately on the government for not doing enough.

I guess something has to give and we are seeing that now with house prices falling and potentially crashing all whilst the BoE put base rates up. Kind of a perfect storm. 

[steviewevie]

22 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah the low rates were to help the economy after the 08 crash and in the pandemic too. We are paying the price for the government not putting in place measures that would help ensure the market is fairer for everyone because people had less disposable income as wages fell in real terms and rents went up. This is ultimately on the government for not doing enough.

I guess something has to give and we are seeing that now with house prices falling and potentially crashing all whilst the BoE put base rates up. Kind of a perfect storm. 

They did the Help To Buy thing, which I guess just feeds the problem.

[fraybentos1]

31 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

They did the Help To Buy thing, which I guess just feeds the problem.

Yep, ostensibly it’s to help first time buyers and while it helped a few in the short term- all it actually did was push up house prices and help builders. You can clearly see a jump in prices after it’s introduction 

[Guest]

39 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

They did the Help To Buy thing, which I guess just feeds the problem.

Yeah they did that along with the relaxation of Stamp Duty (which I benefitted from). Those measures helped people but they didn’t do anywhere near enough to ensure supply kept up