news & politics:discussion

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

The inflation news today whilst ok isn’t exactly great news. Inflation is essentially falling because of energy prices which were always going to fall as the issue is supply side driven. Which shows that the BoE raising interest rates has nothing to do with these figures. Core inflation remains stubbornly which only puts further pressure on people’s finances especially when combined with all the other pressures too. 

Interest rates aren't high enough etc

🙂

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Interest rates aren't high enough etc

🙂

Yes that is it 😉

[cellar]

53 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

The inflation news today whilst ok isn’t exactly great news. Inflation is essentially falling because of energy prices which were always going to fall as the issue is supply side driven. Which shows that the BoE raising interest rates has nothing to do with these figures. Core inflation remains stubbornly which only puts further pressure on people’s finances especially when combined with all the other pressures too. 

Why don't we look at it from a different angle - are you saying that raising interest rates has had zero effect on inflation? Or is inflation higher because we put IRs up?

You must believe one of those two if you think it hasn't brought inflation down, so I'd be interested to know which one it is.

[fraybentos1]

3 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Yes that is it 😉

It actually is though 😂

 

2 hours ago, cellar said:

Why don't we look at it from a different angle - are you saying that raising interest rates has had zero effect on inflation? Or is inflation higher because we put IRs up?

You must believe one of those two if you think it hasn't brought inflation down, so I'd be interested to know which one it is.

He will absolutely ignore this comment, no way he responds to a politely raised challenge to his (wildly incorrect) view.

[Neil]

I realise some people might not have too many choices about this, but why does anyone make phone calls when working from home with screaming kids in the background. Couldn't hear what she was saying.

[steviewevie]

3 hours ago, cellar said:

Why don't we look at it from a different angle - are you saying that raising interest rates has had zero effect on inflation? Or is inflation higher because we put IRs up?

You must believe one of those two if you think it hasn't brought inflation down, so I'd be interested to know which one it is.

has it brought it down? It may well do over the next 12 months, but not sure how much affect it has had so far...there is a lag due to them not affecting many people...yet..?  

[cellar]

31 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

has it brought it down? It may well do over the next 12 months, but not sure how much affect it has had so far...there is a lag due to them not affecting many people...yet..?  

Yes, interest rate rises have brought down inflation (or stopped it getting higher). Rates have been rising since their low at the end of 2021, and so the inflation rates we've seen, whilst still high, would have been higher than if we hadn't raised them. All of this is true, unless you want to argue against the fundamental understanding of behavioural economics... Which is why the debate gets a little tiresome (and akin to those people that didn't believe in vaccines for covid).

I appreciate it can be hard to believe in because all we can see is what inflation is right now, and its very easy for me to say that they would have been higher, and there's no way to prove if I'm right or wrong. But high interest rates does like 4 main things that you'd struggle to argue aren't a thing: increases mortgage costs, meaning people have less to spend on luxuries; increases borrowing costs, so people are less likely to take out loans (to spend on things); increases the amount of interest on savings (so people more likely to save, and not spend money on things); and finally, whilst not really behavioural (but still important), high IRs can increase the value of the pound, making it cheaper to import. All of these things help to reduce (or control) inflation. If we hadn't changed interest rates, saying that we'd have 20%+ levels of inflation is not a ridiculous statement. And so whilst we can't prove either way, there are a wealth of studies and years worth of academic research to back up the position.

And to be clear - I don't like or want high IRs, I just know they are necessary.

I do feel like a broken record sometimes, but I am always happy to go over this stuff as many times as needed. 😂

You're right that we won't see the effect of more recent, sharper rate rises for a while though. And that will hopefully be when we see some really sharp falls in inflation.

Also all of this doesn't mean things are going to be fantastic even when inflation gets back down to a reasonable level. A lot of work will need to be done after that to try to fix this mess (probably around the time Labour get into power).

[Crazyfool01]

21 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Pointless isn't it lol.  Admins kept banning me for having anything other than a left wing opinion and made up false accusations 🙂  

Will probably get banned again now 😛   Cancel culture came to efestvials 😛 
 
I don't know what its like here at the moment but this area of the site just became a left wing propaganda tool and the personal play thing of a handful of users.  Hopefully the new owner is improving the situation.  

Glad to see you still holding the numpties to account 🙂 

no change in the mods apart from I've rejoined a month or so back .... im sure you and others can appreciate that moderating is not the easiest task in the world ... there is no cancel culture as you've put it , but like anything moderators have to make decisions .... @eFestivals will be draughting up some clear guidelines which all forums operate to they are a work in progress at the moment . The report button has been used on many occasions lately and if the mods banned everyone concerned then discussion wouldn't exist on this thread and there wouldn't be anyone left . 

[fraybentos1]

5 minutes ago, cellar said:

Yes, interest rate rises have brought down inflation (or stopped it getting higher). Rates have been rising since their low at the end of 2021, and so the inflation rates we've seen, whilst still high, would have been higher than if we hadn't raised them. All of this is true, unless you want to argue against the fundamental understanding of behavioural economics... Which is why the debate gets a little tiresome (and akin to those people that didn't believe in vaccines for covid).

I appreciate it can be hard to believe in because all we can see is what inflation is right now, and its very easy for me to say that they would have been higher, and there's no way to prove if I'm right or wrong. But high interest rates does like 4 main things that you'd struggle to argue aren't a thing: increases mortgage costs, meaning people have less to spend on luxuries; increases borrowing costs, so people are less likely to take out loans (to spend on things); increases the amount of interest on savings (so people more likely to save, and not spend money on things); and finally, whilst not really behavioural (but still important), high IRs can increase the value of the pound, making it cheaper to import. All of these things help to reduce (or control) inflation. If we hadn't changed interest rates, saying that we'd have 20%+ levels of inflation is not a ridiculous statement. And so whilst we can't prove either way, there are a wealth of studies and years worth of academic research to back up the position.

And to be clear - I don't like or want high IRs, I just know they are necessary.

I do feel like a broken record sometimes, but I am always happy to go over this stuff as many times as needed. 😂

You're right that we won't see the effect of more recent, sharper rate rises for a while though. And that will hopefully be when we see some really sharp falls in inflation.

Also all of this doesn't mean things are going to be fantastic even when inflation gets back down to a reasonable level. A lot of work will need to be done after that to try to fix this mess (probably around the time Labour get into power).

A well written and clear post which I broadly agree with. To highlight the part I have put in bold, I think this is important: central banks aren't doing this for a laugh, they're doing it cause it needs to be done and they know it. Ozanne is not more intelligent than basically every central bank in the world. Japan is basically the only exception and they're an exception for a reason and should not be copied. 

It's infuriating having to repeat yourself over and over cause Ozanne has read a few richard murphy threads on twitter and will come back with blah blah blah supply side blah blah everyone's so selfish apart from me!!!!

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

has it brought it down? It may well do over the next 12 months, but not sure how much affect it has had so far...there is a lag due to them not affecting many people...yet..?  

No higher interest rates have made no impacted apart from making people poorer. As I’ve said over and over again you should raise interest rates when inflation is done to supply side issues as that just takes money out of the economy when there isn’t much in it anyway.

As I pointed out earlier the fall in inflation is mainly due to energy prices which we’re gonna come down anyway because of the wholesale price of gas. So if they hadn’t touched rates this would’ve happened anyway.

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, cellar said:

Yes, interest rate rises have brought down inflation (or stopped it getting higher). Rates have been rising since their low at the end of 2021, and so the inflation rates we've seen, whilst still high, would have been higher than if we hadn't raised them. All of this is true, unless you want to argue against the fundamental understanding of behavioural economics... Which is why the debate gets a little tiresome (and akin to those people that didn't believe in vaccines for covid).

I appreciate it can be hard to believe in because all we can see is what inflation is right now, and its very easy for me to say that they would have been higher, and there's no way to prove if I'm right or wrong. But high interest rates does like 4 main things that you'd struggle to argue aren't a thing: increases mortgage costs, meaning people have less to spend on luxuries; increases borrowing costs, so people are less likely to take out loans (to spend on things); increases the amount of interest on savings (so people more likely to save, and not spend money on things); and finally, whilst not really behavioural (but still important), high IRs can increase the value of the pound, making it cheaper to import. All of these things help to reduce (or control) inflation. If we hadn't changed interest rates, saying that we'd have 20%+ levels of inflation is not a ridiculous statement. And so whilst we can't prove either way, there are a wealth of studies and years worth of academic research to back up the position.

And to be clear - I don't like or want high IRs, I just know they are necessary.

I do feel like a broken record sometimes, but I am always happy to go over this stuff as many times as needed. 😂

You're right that we won't see the effect of more recent, sharper rate rises for a while though. And that will hopefully be when we see some really sharp falls in inflation.

Also all of this doesn't mean things are going to be fantastic even when inflation gets back down to a reasonable level. A lot of work will need to be done after that to try to fix this mess (probably around the time Labour get into power).

woah. Yes, ok, I understand how interest rates work.....but now there are more people who own houses without a mortgage, and more people with fixed rate mortgages which have not come to an end yet, so the lag between rate rises and people's spending is  longer than used to be. So these rate rises over last 6/12 months is affecting fewer people than would have in the past.  Plus, a lot of the inflation that we see was due to global energy and food prices going up, which have been coming down since the beginning of the year, and that has nothing to do with people's demand. But, bank needs to get inflation down, and they only have one tool, and that is interest rates, so that's what they do. The govt could impose price controls as seem elsewhere, but they haven't. The worry with rate rises is they could over do it and we end up in a recession with high unemployment, and inflation coming down anyway. 

Edited August 16, 2023 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

No higher interest rates have made no impacted apart from making people poorer. As I’ve said over and over again you should raise interest rates when inflation is done to supply side issues as that just takes money out of the economy when there isn’t much in it anyway.

As I pointed out earlier the fall in inflation is mainly due to energy prices which we’re gonna come down anyway because of the wholesale price of gas. So if they hadn’t touched rates this would’ve happened anyway.

I don't think anyone can definitely say how much of an affect they have had. Yes they will likely have had some, but how much who knows.

Too many f**king experts on this forum.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

woah. Yes, ok, I understand how interest rates work.....but now there are more people who own houses without a mortgage, and more people with fixed rate mortgages which have not come to and end yet, so the lag between rate rises and people's spending is  longer than used to be. So these rate rises over last 6/12 months is affecting fewer people than would have in the past.  Plus, a lot of the inflation that we see was due to global energy and food prices going up, which have been coming down since the beginning of the year, and that has nothing to do with people's demand. But, bank needs to get inflation down, and they only have one tool, and that is interest rates, so that's what they do. The govt could impose price controls as seem elsewhere, but they haven't. The worry with rate rises is they could over do it and we end up in a recession with high unemployment, and inflation coming down anyway. 

Core inflation isn't really down and inflation is still way way above target.

[Crazyfool01]

Brexit has an impact ? or have I been reading the wrong things on twitter too ? 

[steviewevie]

Is Barry back moaning about cancel culture? 😆

[steviewevie]

Just now, Crazyfool01 said:

Brexit has an impact ? or have I been reading the wrong things on twitter too ? 

maybe a bit. Again hard to quantify. Loads of sh*t going on.

[fraybentos1]

Just now, steviewevie said:

I don't think anyone can definitely say how much of an affect they have had. Yes they will likely have had some, but how much who knows.

Too many f**king experts on this forum.

Ozanne is the only one who is claiming to have superior knowledge to every central bank in the world. Everyone is else is just pointing at that.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I don't think anyone can definitely say how much of an affect they have had. Yes they will likely have had some, but how much who knows.

Too many f**king experts on this forum.

I dare say the only real impact raising rates has had are negative, leaving people worse off and making things harder in a cost of living crises. If the BoE did nothing then inflation would’ve fallen anyway. 
 

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Is Barry back moaning about cancel culture? 😆

Is he back and instantly being toxic again? Shocker. 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Ozanne

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

As I’ve said over and over again you should raise interest rates when inflation is done to supply side issues as that just takes money out of the economy when there isn’t much in it anyway.

 

Like clockwork 🤣 

There'll be another rate rise next month, brace yourself

 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

If the BoE did nothing then inflation would’ve fallen anyway. 

yes but not enough, theres a 2% target ffs we are way over that.

 

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I dare say the only real impact raising rates has had are negative

quick! someone call the bank of england and every other central bank in the world. Ozanne has once again stated that IR rises are bad. They must immediately stop cause Ozanne has groundbreaking proof they aren't working cause. Oh no wait it is just his nonsense again repeating what he has been saying for months and being very wrong 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

maybe a bit. Again hard to quantify. Loads of sh*t going on.

Brexit will have definitely had an impact as it will have impacted the supply of certain products into the UK thus increasing the price. Price gauging will also have played a part here too. 

[fraybentos1]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Wasn't @Ozanne lording about how the stamp duty cut helped him without understanding how this made house prices higher for everyone else ? 

Much like all the selfish types who made money out of buying their council houses while not caring about how it impacted others.  

Yeah it's all about him and his mortgage payment going up but he disguises it as caring about the poor usual. As if the poor aren't getting diddled by high inflation

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Mods do have a hard job.  But this mod wasn't moderating, they where holding a personal grudge against me. 

Hoping the new owner does come up with some good guidelines and they allow free and fair discussion where all view points are allowed and protected.  Its fairly clear to me we have had in the past a moderation made up of left wing types which is shown in the way moderation is being done.  Would be good for the moderation team to be more diverse. 

The moderation has given cooling off periods to people from both sides of the discussion you just  may not have realised it . It's a predominantly left wing forum .... so likely the moderation team will have more moderators from that side tbh ....  if I ban someone it'll likely be for a reason not based on politics and that's the way the moderators will hopefully operate going forward .  id like personally to see more discussion and fewer personal gripes in the forum too ... however much people disagree . I think you'd be shocked but the moderators have likely ignored a few reports about you to aid discussion . 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Brexit will have definitely had an impact as it will have impacted the supply of certain products into the UK thus increasing the price. Price gauging will also have played a part here too. 

Half a trillion of quantitative easing and 0.1 interest rates won't have helped either

[fraybentos1]

To be fair to the mods they did once ban Ozanne for his nonsense. Probs the best this threads ever been tbh. A week of peace and no arguments!

Overall they do a good job cause there's certainly some personality clashes in here lol