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news & politics:discussion


zahidf

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2 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Inflation will stay the same or go up by around 0.25% in the August figures and may well go up again in the September figures.

Both are expected, first due to fuel price, the second mainly grain prices but fuel prices have  a 3-6 month lag on overall food etc prices so the fall in inflation may take longer than expected.

Markets have a 0.25% rate rise built in with 8% thinking it will be double that (it won't be). If there is no rise not sure how the markets will react.

Of course rates will go up because the BOE are miss-guides in thinking it will cure our inflation issues. It won’t do that it’ll only make people worse off which they’ll be happy with as for some reason they seem to hate the idea of working people having more money all whilst they happily accept their own pay rises.  

Inflation will come down naturally without the BOE doing anything but the government could’ve stepped in to speed up the process. But they chose to protect profits over people. 

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20 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Of course rates will go up because the BOE are miss-guides in thinking it will cure our inflation issues. It won’t do that it’ll only make people worse off which they’ll be happy with as for some reason they seem to hate the idea of working people having more money all whilst they happily accept their own pay rises.  

Inflation will come down naturally without the BOE doing anything but the government could’ve stepped in to speed up the process. But they chose to protect profits over people. 

You can type this out 100 times in here. You’re still wrong!

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2 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

No chance 

if theres going to be a further increase it'll be announced on the 21st - there might be another increase but general opinion say we're probably done(the effect of any rate rise takes a while to dissipate thru the economy.

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Just now, Neil said:

if theres going to be a further increase it'll be announced on the 21st - there might be another increase but general opinion say we're probably done(the effect of any rate rise takes a while to dissipate thru the economy.

Yep it takes a while to filter through I agree. But general opinion said we would never have got to 5.75 %.

Theres nothing to say that inflation will continue  to drop in the medium term, especially if they do something idiotic like drop rates too soon. Inflation could easily stick at like 4 or 5 percent or worse yet, bounce back up. 
 

Rates need to stay high and might yet go higher.

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1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

U.K. also had some of the worst inflation about so maybe the markets were expecting more I dunno. What i do know is if our rates were still low as some (wrongly) think is a good idea, then GBP would be in much worse shape than it is atm- not to say it’s a strong currency at the moment 

 

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Of course rates will go up because the BOE are miss-guides in thinking it will cure our inflation issues. It won’t do that it’ll only make people worse off which they’ll be happy with as for some reason they seem to hate the idea of working people having more money all whilst they happily accept their own pay rises.  

Inflation will come down naturally without the BOE doing anything but the government could’ve stepped in to speed up the process. But they chose to protect profits over people. 

The historic average of UK interest rates is around 5.5%.

The BOE and government have always wanted them to return to this level as, like 2% inflation, it is deemed to be 'best for the overall economy'. So here we are with interest rates at that level and despite some saying they will drop to 3% or lower in a few years more and more banks are offering 5 year bonds at 5.6% as they know what will really happen.

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54 minutes ago, Rufus Gwertigan said:

On a lighter note. Locals protest the noise of bangs coming from am army training camp. You can't make this sh*t up.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12504885/Britains-noise-military-camp-locals-complain-explosions-really-loud.html

Our 'local' Brecon Beacons training area has been busy and locals here (30 miles away) have been moaning about the noise!!!

The same ones who don't want pylons even though there have been pylons where they don't want them all their lives.

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The Tories, well some of them, want us to all work and work and work..................

 

State pension age should be raised to 75 within 16 years, according to Iain Duncan Smith's think tank

  • Centre of Social Justice wants the state pension age to rise to 70 by 2028
  • It backs increasing the working age to 75 by 2035 for the UK's ageing population
  • Duncan-Smith's think tank says it will reduce benefits costs and boost GDP
  • It includes proposals for flexible working hours and improved healthcare
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7 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Our 'local' Brecon Beacons training area has been busy and locals here (30 miles away) have been moaning about the noise!!!

The same ones who don't want pylons even though there have been pylons where they don't want them all their lives.

Spent many an hour in Brecon when I was in the army. A really tough area.

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19 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

The historic average of UK interest rates is around 5.5%.

The BOE and government have always wanted them to return to this level as, like 2% inflation, it is deemed to be 'best for the overall economy'. So here we are with interest rates at that level and despite some saying they will drop to 3% or lower in a few years more and more banks are offering 5 year bonds at 5.6% as they know what will really happen.

I disagree, the BoE is only raising them because they basically have to. They raised them way to slowly post recession/ pre covid and then once again after covid had passed. 

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17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

if economy too hot and inflation increases, they raise rates...if economy is f**ked and needs stimulus they lower them....and now we have a bit of everything so f**k knows.

Which sort of shows how the economic model being follow does not and cannot work.

They raise rates and have even said they would do so if needed to force a recession to calm inflation and yet, as you say, a recession would normally mean interest rates fall.

When you have  a tool box and the tools at your disposal do not work or cannot be used how they once were you go and see what new tools you could get................................. except in economics the tools used are the same ones they have had since the 1960's and are well worn and no longer work quite right.

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28 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I disagree, the BoE is only raising them because they basically have to. They raised them way to slowly post recession/ pre covid and then once again after covid had passed. 

Somewhere in history under the previous governer of the BOE has said just that, it may have been after he left office though................ and Johnson and Truss and some previous chancellors have all said very similar - I think a lot of it is said at party conference so maybe only said to appeal to their own.

but yes, they increased them far too slowly after Covid - did they actually ever increase them prior to Covid, I thought they stayed at 0.25 then Covid arrived and they dropped to 0.1

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4 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Somewhere in history under the previous governer of the BOE has said just that, it may have been after he left office though................ and Johnson and Truss and some previous chancellors have all said very similar - I think a lot of it is said at party conference so maybe only said to appeal to their own.

but yes, they increased them far too slowly after Covid - did they actually ever increase them prior to Covid, I thought they stayed at 0.25 then Covid arrived and they dropped to 0.1

0.75 they got back to then the silly drop during covid to basically 0. Defo does not help our current situation and also increased house prices to stupid levels 

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16 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

0.75 they got back to then the silly drop during covid to basically 0. Defo does not help our current situation and also increased house prices to stupid levels 

You are quite right - how did I forget they actually went up to 0.75............... maybe I was drunk during Covid so mangled the memory a bit.

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Hindsight etc. They cut rates during covid to keep the economy going and prevent businesses collapsing and unemployment. Yes, they should have raised them earlier but forecasts were all over the shop because of the lockdown. Now they are raising them because of inflation but there are forecasts of unemployment and a recession on the horizon, so not a straight forward decision. Have to see what next inflation figures are.,..

Edited by steviewevie
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1 hour ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

The historic average of UK interest rates is around 5.5%.

The BOE and government have always wanted them to return to this level as, like 2% inflation, it is deemed to be 'best for the overall economy'. So here we are with interest rates at that level and despite some saying they will drop to 3% or lower in a few years more and more banks are offering 5 year bonds at 5.6% as they know what will really happen.

The BOE are wrong here, they are either raising interest rates out of a miss-guides view it will cause supply side driven inflation to fall or they simply don’t like working people having more money. I think it’s a bit of both.

It’s always worth pointing out that whilst the BOE moan about us getting pay rises, they happily accept theirs all whilst having much higher salaries in the first place.

They are purposely making things harder for people when they don’t need too. 

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3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Nobody Interesting said:

The Tories, well some of them, want us to all work and work and work..................

 

State pension age should be raised to 75 within 16 years, according to Iain Duncan Smith's think tank

  • Centre of Social Justice wants the state pension age to rise to 70 by 2028
  • It backs increasing the working age to 75 by 2035 for the UK's ageing population
  • Duncan-Smith's think tank says it will reduce benefits costs and boost GDP
  • It includes proposals for flexible working hours and improved healthcare

"The Tories, well some of them, want us to all work and work and work................."

Not just the Tories I suspect, see Starmers quote above, "Labour will make Britain work for working people once again." Just working people then, what about the retired and those on benefits? It's not the first time he's used the term "Working people" recently, I see a real shift away from the benefit culture that Labour have, in the past, supported, state pensions are becoming unaffordable, hence the need to raise the retirement age, anyone still hoping for universal income may have a long wait, I can't see it being economically possible. Labour know they are going to have to make tough economic decisions, it looks to me like they have already decided to prioritize the worker over the economically inactive, bad news for those who can't work for some reason, I can see life getting even tougher for those.

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Changing the subject a bit................

 

In 1989 in a speech at the UN the UK Prime Minister said
""We are seeing a vast increase in the amount of carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere... The result is that change in future is likely to be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we have known hitherto.""
 
In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a group of the world’s top climate scientists – released its First Assessment Report, predicting global warming of about 1.1 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2030.
As at Today the temperature has risen 1.22 degrees based on the same base level as the report.
 
The report warned of numerous severe changes to weather patterns including bigger storms causing more flooding and longer and more intense heatwaves across much of the Northern Hemisphere - these were predicted to intensify as we got to the 1.1 rise by 2030..........
2023 has seen some very big changes to global weather, most were predicted by 2030 in that report.
 
Since 1990 the same group has released lots more reports with updated warnings of what will happen. The IPCC has their own website and all the reports are on it.
At present unless the world changes we are heading for a rise of 2.5 degrees - you really do not want to know the predictions they had for that rise!
 
In 2006 The Stern Review concludes that climate change could damage global GDP by up to 20% if left unchecked - but curbing it would cost about 1% of global GDP and yet governments still sit back and do little or nothing based on how much it will cost us to do it.
 
Still, let's not worry about it........................................
 
and here is a fun article from the LA Times from October 1989
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-10-29-mn-194-story.html
Edited by Nobody Interesting
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