news & politics:discussion

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Because of mortgages you get now? Or because young people earn more now relative to 82?

young people earn more now relative to house prices  than they did in 82.and mortgages are easier to get  - also 100% mortgages were not available(at all).

[Neil]

if i think back cheapest property (basement 1 bed flat) in cheapest towns  near me was £30k. my wage as an apprentice was about £2.5k.

mortgage would have cost me about the same as my rent.

[fraybentos1]

13 minutes ago, Neil said:

young people earn more now relative to house prices  than they did in 82.

Any evidence for this or you just plucked it out thin air as usual?

[fraybentos1]

So it’s easier to buy a house at 10x average income than 4x , wow that’s amazing news. Maths not your forte is it Neil. 

[fraybentos1]

11 minutes ago, Neil said:

if i think back cheapest property (basement 1 bed flat) in cheapest towns  near me was £30k. my wage as an apprentice was about £2.5k.

mortgage would have cost me about the same as my rent.

How much is that property in 2023?

[Nobody Interesting]

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Any evidence for this or you just plucked it out thin air as usual?

We have the minimum wage now which means a 40 hour week is around £457.60 or £1982.93 a month. Average house prices in Q4 2023 were £288,000 which would be Monthly x 145.24.

In 1982 I was paid £38 a week, then got another job and got £56 a week the later being £242.67 a month. Average house prices were £25980 at the end of Q4 1982 which would be Monthly x 107.46.

I do not know what the average salary in 1982 was so cannot compare that.

This simple metric shows it was easier for young people to afford a house in 1982.

 

[steviewevie]

2 hours ago, Neil said:

young people earn more now relative to house prices  than they did in 82.and mortgages are easier to get  - also 100% mortgages were not available(at all).

I get the bit about mortgages, but not affordability....

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I get the bit about mortgages, but not affordability....

It doesn’t help that we have had 14 years of stagnant wages whilst mostly everything else goes up.

[Neil]

17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I get the bit about mortgages, but not affordability....

dont need a deposit with a 100% mortgage.

[Neil]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It doesn’t help that we have had 14 years of stagnant wages whilst mostly everything else goes up.

its not 14 years it 30 years.

[fraybentos1]

31 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Cheapest thing near me which isn't restricted to over 55s or a shared ownership scheme (North West) is a £70k 2 bedroom terraced house.  Area not great but not terrible.

95% mortgage you could need a deposit of around £3500.

90% mortgage you could need a deposit of around £7000.

Plus you need solicitor costs lets say £1500 ? (maybe less - its been a while).

£388 a month for the mortgage

I would imagine putting all this together for someone on minimum wage would be beyond doable if they where already paying rent somewhere else.   I wonder how much you need to earn to be able to do it.

Also worth pointing out that 70k is extremely cheap in the UK and not the case for everyone. Average house is 300k

[fraybentos1]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Well that is an interesting point.  I probably represents the bottom of the market for most areas.  I would imagine in Glasgow there are few houses that look like that away from the expensive areas ?   But its not necessarily where people want to live or what people want own.  And a two bedroom isn't going to work for the average family unless you have two kids the same sex.

there are defo places around glasgow for under 100k, nowhere im going to be living tho. More likely double that plus some.

If you live in the south east of england, 100 odd k is getting you nothing

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Neil said:

its not 14 years it 30 years.

We had much better wage growth in relative terms before the Tories came back into power.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

I think the best you can do is 95% right

there probs is some 100% mortgages with a guarantor or whatever, Neil seems to be arguing that this means it's easier for ftbs now than the 1980s. This is obviously a colossally dumb argument even by his standards and there have already been 2 graphs posted that show that

 

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Are shared ownerships schemes any good ?

any scheme or incentive only serves to drive up prices. 

[SalviaPlath]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

Odd because there is already a  Shadow Minister for Women's Health and Mental Health, Abena Oppong-Asare. I'd assume she would lead this kind of high level review for the party. 

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Well..

The full picture on that one is massive drop off before the Tories got into power at the end Labours time in office.  While it might be blamed on the banking crisis the Tories had a much lower point to start from the Labour did.  In 1997 Labour inherited a picture of wage growth and left office with it on the floor.

Wage growth is tory success story looking at this grapth.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna



 

nominal means f**k all, need to see inflation at the same time

[fraybentos1]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Probably but to the buyer the key incentive is probably just to get on the ladder, break free of renting and start on the journey of building equity .

So a few more people scrape on to the ladder and then the next generation is more f**ked, and the next one so on so on.

Only way anything gets better is prices going down in real terms, can talk about it all day but thats the fact of the matter

[steviewevie]

house prices will always get that bentos bloke on here.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, SalviaPlath said:

Odd because there is already a  Shadow Minister for Women's Health and Mental Health, Abena Oppong-Asare. I'd assume she would lead this kind of high level review for the party. 

 

I think it's because of her previous experience as a shadow cabinet member and her current role in MH. They want to bring her back on board in some form and keeps the current shadow cab member for MH free to shadow the Tories. I would assume anyway, either way it's great Labour are putting focus on this.

[Neil]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We had much better wage growth in relative terms before the Tories came back into power.

They stopped increasing public sector pay which always helped drive up private sector pay.so there has been a slow down in the last 14 years but Also in the last thirty since unions stopped playing much part in wage rises.

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Well...  its a club you want to join...  Prices aren't going to come down like you want to and as soon as you are in the game you won't be screaming for the same thing 😛 

I'll be buying this year don't you worry Barry we've started looking, but i still think house prices are too high

[Neil]

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

So a few more people scrape on to the ladder and then the next generation is more f**ked, and the next one so on so on.

Only way anything gets better is prices going down in real terms, can talk about it all day but thats the fact of the matter

Most people only scraped into the ladder back in the 60s and 70s Which is why most folk needed their employer to lie about their wages and other scams to make it happen.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Neil said:

They stopped increasing public sector pay which always helped drive up private sector pay.so there has been a slow down in the last 14 years but Also in the last thirty since unions stopped playing much part in wage rises.

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8037/CBP-8037.pdf

The screen shot is from the above link and shows under New Labour median pay was rising and under the Tories it was stagnating. You could argue pay didn't up enough under Labour but it was better than now.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Neil said:

Most people only scraped into the ladder back in the 60s and 70s Which is why most folk needed their employer to lie about their wages and other scams to make it happen.

hasn't private home ownership gone up a lot since the council home sell off in the 80s? 

I don't think owning a home was easy back in the 60s/70s for low earners, but there would have been more social housing opportunities then...now you have to own a house otherwise you're some sort of loser c**t.

[Nobody Interesting]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

house prices will always get that bentos bloke on here.

Where as absolutely nothing gets you not on here.