news & politics:discussion

[philipsteak]

46 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

this kid is leading the coup against Sunak...

 

Is it a school project?

[steviewevie]

27 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Rather proves that polls are nonsense at the moment.

not nonsense, just showing different results depending on methodology etc but no poll is ever going to be 100% accurate...it's overall poll trackers you want to look at, i.e.

or this from Britain Elects and New Statesman which gets updated daily from different polling...

Britain Predicts (newstatesman.com)

 

 

[steviewevie]

 

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

not nonsense, just showing different results depending on methodology etc but no poll is ever going to be 100% accurate...it's overall poll trackers you want to look at, i.e.

or this from Britain Elects and New Statesman which gets updated daily from different polling...

Britain Predicts (newstatesman.com)

 

 

I reckon it’s probably because he doesn’t like what the polls are showing. 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I reckon it’s probably because he doesn’t like what the polls are showing. 

I mean there is a big difference between those two polls...

[lost]

reform upto 13%? Must be their best ever performance.

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I mean there is a big difference between those two polls...

Yes there is, doesn’t mean that polls are nonsense though. 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, lost said:

reform upto 13%? Must be their best ever performance.

still won't win a seat. Need PR.

[fred quimby]

32 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I reckon it’s probably because he doesn’t like what the polls are showing. 

A little bit pot kettle there Ozanne. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, fred quimby said:

A little bit pot kettle there Ozanne. 

Please show me where I’ve said the polls are nonsense?

[Guest]

I think I was one of the people saying that just because polls have narrowed before doesn’t necessarily mean they will again. 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I think I was one of the people saying that just because polls have narrowed before doesn’t necessarily mean they will again. 

not yet...we don't even know when election will be yet...

[Guest]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

not yet...we don't even know when election will be yet...

We would normally be seeing a narrowing at this stage but it’s not happening yet. Just like the person who said tax cuts would cause the polls to narrow be narrow because they did before; there’s been tax cuts yet the polls didn’t narrow. 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We would normally be seeing a narrowing at this stage but it’s not happening yet. Just like the person who said tax cuts would cause the polls to narrow be narrow because they did before; there’s been tax cuts yet the polls didn’t narrow. 

Yeah. Sunak is not popular, and is just a bit sh*t at media stuff...so maybe they won't narrow. But, have to see what happens when actual campaigns get going.

[steviewevie]

Legend.

 

[Guest]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Yeah. Sunak is not popular, and is just a bit sh*t at media stuff...so maybe they won't narrow. But, have to see what happens when actual campaigns get going.

Oh boy it’s gonna be interesting, Sunak is dreadful, he’s gonna make May look charismatic. 

[fraybentos1]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We would normally be seeing a narrowing at this stage but it’s not happening yet. Just like the person who said tax cuts would cause the polls to narrow be narrow because they did before; there’s been tax cuts yet the polls didn’t narrow. 

The NI cut only started in January so most people won’t even have had one pay since then 

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I reckon it’s probably because he doesn’t like what the polls are showing. 

just ask rather than assume ? you'll get the answer then 

[Crazyfool01]

16 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Oh boy it’s gonna be interesting, Sunak is dreadful, he’s gonna make May look charismatic. 

very much agree ...  Also why such a difference in the polls out of interest ? are some that selective they aren't representative of the population 

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

very much agree ...  Also why such a difference in the polls out of interest ? are some that selective they aren't representative of the population 

I'm guessing just methodologies, who they ask, how many, what they ask, what they do with the answers, assumptions they make, what they do with don't knows etc etc.

[steviewevie]

Also some are phone polling, some online...

[kaosmark2]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I'm guessing just methodologies, who they ask, how many, what they ask, what they do with the answers, assumptions they make, what they do with don't knows etc etc.

Yeah this.

One thing about the big Yougov MRP from a week or two ago was that it stated the polls were with the assumption of 0 tactical voting, ie. possibly it was going to be even worse for the Tories than suggested. That said, weighting for tactical voting is usually overdone anyway.

Even with the exact same data, different poll companies will produce different results because of the varying methods of extrapolation. The info that tends to be interesting is usually combined polls or significant changes compared to a previous one by the same company.

[Skip997]

There is no political solution
To our troubled evolution

 

 

[Neil]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Oh boy it’s gonna be interesting, Sunak is dreadful, he’s gonna make May look charismatic. 

don't think they'll narrow by much, but i'm sure the tories will find something the public likes to sell themselves with, and also some labour stuff to scare people with.